Prospect Or Suspect?

[CDAV45]

Adell was ranked #5 prospect overall before his promotion and is only 21 years old. I'm not going to downplay his talent based on 38 games but I guess we'll see.

I agree that a 38 game sample is no measure to forecast a player's career. I am however very suspicious of PCL hitters and Jo was one of those. On the flip side of that, I have extreme confidence in pitchers that performed well in the PCL. I don't know if that is right or wrong, it's just how I see it.

 

[Steve_424]

I agree that a 38 game sample is no measure to forecast a player's career. I am however very suspicious of PCL hitters and Jo was one of those. On the flip side of that, I have extreme confidence in pitchers that performed well in the PCL. I don't know if that is right or wrong, it's just how I see it.

He only played 27 PCL games so I don't think his performance there is what earned him the Top 5 overall ranking.

 

[CDAV45]

He only played 27 PCL games so I don't think his performance there is what earned him the Top 5 overall ranking.

I'm not arguing that he didn't deserve his ranking. Not in the slightest. I just think prospects in general that come out of the western leagues have offensive numbers that are a little "bloated" for the lack of better words and the statistics prove that. He's one helluva athlete and he's very young. There's a reason he was ranked so highly, but I suspect that the offensive expectations are a little lofty. I could certainly be wrong and would be excited if he was on Cleveland's roster.

 

[CATS44]

But when does a prospect become a suspect in your mind?

500 at bats? 1000?

Or what age? 24? 25?

Or how many seasons does he have to establish himself as a productive player? Two? Three? Four?

Mazara has been in MLB for five years and has had 2300 PAs. But he's only 25. Is he still a prospect, or a confirmed bust?

How many at bats or seasons do you give Lux or Senzel or Riley to produce before naming him a suspect?

 

[CDAV45]

But when does a prospect become a suspect in your mind?

500 at bats? 1000?

Or what age? 24? 25?

Or how many seasons does he have to establish himself as a productive player? Two? Three? Four?

Mazara has been in MLB for five years and has had 2300 PAs. But he's only 25. Is he still a prospect, or a confirmed bust?

How many at bats or seasons do you give Lux or Senzel or Riley to produce before naming him a suspect?

For me, if they've reached physical and mental maturity and still fail to find success then perhaps they're done. If I had to pick an age it would be 28, but that's not a hard, fast number. Certainly Lux and Riley aren't even close to being busts at 23 IMO. Senzel and Mazara could take off any time as their issues aren't physical, but mental and they're only 25 and 26.

 

[CATS44]

But by the time most of these kids hit 28, they are FAs or close to it. The team that has them now have not gotten a whole bunch of value out of them, unless they bust out a lot easier.

Lets say we acquired one of these kids as the centerpiece of a trade, expecting production within the first two years, but it takes until they are 28.

Such a trade would not be a winner.

 

[biggie4]

One wonders what would be a sure winner if one had to trade for prospects. If you’re looking for a certain winner this is not the year.

 

[CDAV45]

But by the time most of these kids hit 28, they are FAs or close to it. The team that has them now have not gotten a whole bunch of value out of them, unless they bust out a lot easier.

Lets say we acquired one of these kids as the centerpiece of a trade, expecting production within the first two years, but it takes until they are 28.

Such a trade would not be a winner.

Such is the risk of trading. What has less value, trading Lindor for a package where one of the mentioned players is the centerpiece or watching Lindor walk? At this point I’m not sure they even offer him arbitration. You can’t just cancel a 23 yr old with high upside that has struggled upon their call up. It’s not logical. The vast majority of prospects need time to adjust. We’re talking HOF players have struggled when initially called up. MLB has rules that help players stuck in purgatory.

 

[sportscoach]

But when does a prospect become a suspect in your mind?

500 at bats? 1000?

Or what age? 24? 25?

Or how many seasons does he have to establish himself as a productive player? Two? Three? Four?

Mazara has been in MLB for five years and has had 2300 PAs. But he's only 25. Is he still a prospect, or a confirmed bust?

How many at bats or seasons do you give Lux or Senzel or Riley to produce before naming him a suspect?

To me once you get between 1000-1500 consistent ABs, you know who you have in the pros for the most part.

We dont get to see the mental makeup of a guy nor the potential rating though either like you can in a simulator in real life. Even in simulators you dont always see guys reach potential as well. Ive had 5 star prospects get maybe 2 stars and Ive seen 2 star become 4 stars depending on the system and whatnot.

There isn't one sure bet variable since it is a factor of genetics, work ethic, mental makeup, team philosophy of development, coaching, player peer pressure/player influences, and outside society pressure.

Indians organization got lucky the pitchers like Kluber, Bauer etc, they all supported each other and welcomed new guys into the pros. Sometimes you get the older players who don't want to help the new guys and make it harder for them to develop as well. Guys like Brandon Phillips, didnt get along with the coaches and stunk cause of it, but when he went to a new team, he did really well. Ive had times in a simulator game (OOTP) that my team did better with a lesser coach because the coach fit the style of the team and made the team better, while the other coach made the team worse cause no one fit his style of system.

 

[Criznit]

I think you can look at Greg Allen's "sample size" or even Gio Urshela's time here as about the correct ABs/Yrs experience as enough to make a determination.

2-3 years experience - 150-250 games. 26 and older. This depends a lot on their draft/injury history, I can definitely back a 27 year old rookie without issue.

 

[biggie4]

I think you can look at Greg Allen's "sample size" or even Gio Urshela's time here as about the correct ABs/Yrs experience as enough to make a determination.

oh, that’s a good one.

 

[CATS44]

Urshela is a great example of a late bloomer. So is Justin Turner, although neither was a highly rated prospect....certainly not the kind that would be anything more than a third or fourth piece in a major trade.

But if the Indians do make a major trade, the last thing they want to end up with is a late bloomer...a kid that becomes a star after he moves on.

 

[Criznit]

Urshela is a great example of a late bloomer. So is Justin Turner, although neither was a highly rated prospect....certainly not the kind that would be anything more than a third or fourth piece in a major trade.

But if the Indians do make a major trade, the last thing they want to end up with is a late bloomer...a kid that becomes a star after he moves on.

J.D Martinez.. Cut by the at the time lowly Stros only to become one of baseballs most ferocious hitters.. Sometimes it just doesn't work out.

Lou Marson got a hearty chance to sink or swim here. I hope Bobby Bradley gets a chance to play 50+ games this year.

 

[LL3]

Big Papi eventually figured it out...

 

[Benway]

Late bloomers or PED users? The answers will shock you!