A case study in capology: Dwyane Wade, the Miami Heat and Le Batard being an idiot
This thread has been exclusively Cavs, which is great, but I wanted to touch upon what I think is the most intriguing Salary Cap storyline of this offseason: Dwyane Wade.
Enough smoke has surrounded "Wade to the Cavs" to make a safari out of it, so this is at least tangentially a Cavs story. It is my belief that Miami wants Dwyane Wade gone, as he currently is acting as a fly in ointment in creating another super team in Miami in 2016. The whole situation contains some of my favorite parts of the Salary Cap: exceptions, cap holds and national writers looking like idiots for not understanding the Cap.
Le Batard's article outlining how
Miami is maneuvering the Cap is here. I'll quote this section of the article.
I accept the first part as a legit premise. Well, a legit goal. Having that as a core of an NBA team is a worthwhile goal, but as I will show, they don't really have room for 4 of them, let alone all 5. I completely reject the second part as another NBA writer who has no knowledge and did no research of the Salary Cap.
The goal is to acquire Kevin Durant next offseason with the other aforementioned players still on the roster. Kevin Durant will be a free agent from OKC, so Miami will have to have enough cap space to sign him. The salary cap is projected
to be about $89 million in 2016. If we assume Kevin Durant will want a max contract, his first year salary will be roughly
30% of 89 million, or $25.3 million (see Dragic note below for actual calculation). So Miami will need to have no more than 89-25.3 = $63.7 million on the books for that summer.
Chris Bosh
is already on the books for $23.7 that summer. Dragic is a free agent this summer. It has been rumored he wants a max deal. By 2016, a max contract for Dragic would be about $20.2 million. (This number comes from 30% of the cap, but slightly lowered, then a 7.5% raise after 1 year.
Read the footnotes of this part of Coon FAQ for full details.)
Here's where it gets tricky. Hassan Whiteside is a also a free agent that season. His salary next year will be $981k. As Le Batard points out,
On one hand he's right about the cap hold, but as I'll point out later, he exhibits temporary amnesia when it comes to cap holds. It requires no creativity or relationship building, though.
As was mentioned in a previous post, you can generally go over the cap to sign your own free agents with something called "Larry Bird rights". To retain those rights, however, there is something called a "cap hold". It is an amount of money, based on the previous year's salary, that counts against your cap until either the player signs with someone, or you "renounce their rights." As long as you let the cap hold stay, you can go over the cap to sign said player. (
Full explanation here.) Whiteside's cap hold is about $1.3 million for 2016.
So it seems like a major coup. Whiteside only counts as $1.3 million against the cap. Adding his number to Bosh and Dragic 1.3 + 23.7 + 20 = 45 million. That gives them 18 million to sign Wade and tweak the rest of the roster and still have enough room for Durant, then use Whiteside's Bird Rights once you are over the cap and sign him to whatever you want. (Back in 2005, Milwaukee used this strategy to sign Bobby Simmons to a big Free Agent deal, then used Michael Redd's Bird Rights to sign him to a long deal once Simmon's deal ate up Milwaukee's cap space. Since Redd was a second round pick, his salary and subsequent cap hold was really small.)
The problem is that full Bird Rights require a player be under contract for 3 seasons. Whiteside would only have 2 seasons with Miami, so Miami would have something called "Early Bird Rights".
Full details here, but the big problem is that Miami would only be able to pay him about $5.8 million using these rights. Whiteside will likely cost more than that, and to pay him any more, they'd need the requisite cap space to do so, as if he was a free agent from another team like Durant. A max for Whiteside that year would be about $21.3 million (using the same formula to find Dragic's max). If Whiteside commanded a max, they'd need a full $21.3 mil in cap space ON TOP of the $25.3 mil for Durant to have all 5. Even if Whiteside isn't worth a max, Bosh + Dragic + Durant puts them at $70 mil*. You could come close to signing Whiteside to max and still have have those 4, but that leaves nothing for Wade.
*(I am completely disregarding Josh McRoberts, unused roster charges and draft picks. These are relatively minor and can be worked around.)
So this is why I think Miami wants Wade out. It will take all of their cap space to get Bosh, Dragic, Whiteside and Durant. You can't even give max deals to all, but perhaps by convincing some of them to pay a pay cut (there is precedent for that...maybe LeBatard was right about relationships and Whiteside), you can make those 4 work. Wade, with his health declining, might be more of a burden by then.
So, let's revisit Le Batard.
As I have shown, just fitting 4 of the 5 will require some paycuts. Getting all 5, while a desirable starting lineup, is not remotely possible as he proposes. But the second statement is just downright bizarre.
If Wade opts in, his salary would be $16.1 million next year. That would make his cap hold a whopping $24.2 million. So of that $63.5 they need to stay below, Wade, by opting in, would account for almost 40% of what they need to stay below. And LeBatard obviously knows about cap holds, at least as they pertain to Hassan Whiteside.
If Miami wanted to somehow acquire/keep all 5, they really need Wade's salary to be as low as possible for 2016. They could do this by either having him opt out now and sign a club friendly deal now....or he could opt in, and sign a club friendly deal next offseason, but before they sign Whiteside and Durant (thus getting his cap hold off the books and his new, team friendly contract on the books).
So even if we ignore the 1st half of this post where I show getting 4 of them is difficult, the key to getting all 5 is NOT Wade opting in. In fact, Wade opting in would actually decrease flexibility, even if only temporarily.
So not only is LeBatard's idea pretty implausible, but what he considers the "key" to the whole plan does nothing to help said plan.
Now, I don't know how much we should expect out of NBA writers when it comes to the CBA. It is pretty complicated....I had to recheck about 12 different things to write this post. But how come I can figure this out, but a "nationally respected" writer not only posts such BS, but no other writer knows enough to call him out on it?
(I will note that if they could pull off some sort of S&T with OKC that could allow them to obtain all 5. That requires A LOT of things to happen, so I am sure that this isn't what LeBatard is referring to. Plus, Wade opting in would not help that plan either).