The Official Game of Thrones [A Song of Ice and Fire] Thread (includes spoilers)

[kosis]

As vague as his comment is, I immediately thought of the Blackfyre theory. To me, that little scene where the sign at the inn with the black dragon being weathered and turning red or whatever the hell the passage was, was such a hidden "subtle clue" and perfectly fits into the kind of stuff he's referencing. That settles it. The Blackfyre plot is huge in the final book... and the show might not even mention it. Damn it.

 

[Rich]

As vague as his comment is, I immediately thought of the Blackfyre theory. To me, that little scene where the sign at the inn with the black dragon being weathered and turning red or whatever the hell the passage was, was such a hidden "subtle clue" and perfectly fits into the kind of stuff he's referencing. That settles it. The Blackfyre plot is huge in the final book... and the show might not even mention it. Damn it.

Summarize the Blackfyre plot for me?

But this is how big of a troll job that is, he honestly could just be referencing Rhaegar and Lyanna. Who knows?

 

[kosis]

Summarize the Blackfyre plot for me?

But this is how big of a troll job that is, he honestly could just be referencing Rhaegar and Lyanna. Who knows?

Septon Meribald tells Brienne and Pod the story of the Crossroads Inn:
"...He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon.”
“Is the dragon sign still there?” asked Podrick.
“No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust..."

AFFC 37: BRIENNE VII
This story could be an allegory for Aegon being a Blackfyre. A black dragon is Blackfyre and a red dragon is a Targaryen. So the black dragons (Blackfyres) were forced across the Narrow Sea and many years later one of them (Aegon) rusted over and now appears to be a red dragon (Targ).

Essentially, the theory is that Varys and Illyrio have been plotting this whole time to have Aegon (really a Blackfyre, not a Targaryen) take the iron throne. The reasoning is that they both have stock in the Blackfyres whose entire line has been destroyed on the male side, leading some to believe the female side was not completely wiped out. A related theory is that Illyrio married the last remaining Blackfyre, Serra, and Aegon is their child. Manipulating Westeros and putting a Blackfyre on the throne (and then revealing it after the fact) would be the ultimate victory and revenge for how they were wronged.

There's a lot more but I attempted to be brief.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Maybe Martin was on this site and read my theory about Aegon and Arianne getting married, taking King's Landing, killing Tommen and Myrcella, and then getting into a war with Dany when she arrives to find her throne already taken by a sibling?

Seriously...I think that's pretty much what happens. I still have no idea how the white walkers are going to figure into all of this. I don't know if Martin does either, though.

 

[kosis]

Maybe Martin was on this site and read my theory about Aegon and Arianne getting married, taking King's Landing, killing Tommen and Myrcella, and then getting into a war with Dany when she arrives to find her throne already taken by a sibling?

Seriously...I think that's pretty much what happens. I still have no idea how the white walkers are going to figure into all of this. I don't know if Martin does either, though.

I really like that idea. I just don't know how we get there if the show won't cast Arianne and Aegon. Of course the casting decisions thus far disprove the Blackfyre theory as well. Maybe Martin and the show do end up going with entirely different endings, who knows.

 

[The Hill]

He's clearly referring to half of Westeros being secret Targaryens and Benjen being a merman.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I really like that idea. I just don't know how we get there if the show won't cast Arianne and Aegon. Of course the casting decisions thus far disprove the Blackfyre theory as well. Maybe Martin and the show do end up going with entirely different endings, who knows.

Well, if Dany ultimately ends up winning the war against Aegon, maybe they'll just skip that plot line entire? They also haven't cast any of the Greyjoys from anything I've read, and it sounds like Euron will be pretty important based on the whole "sea of blood" prophecy that Moqorro saw in his flames.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Maybe Martin was on this site and read my theory about Aegon and Arianne getting married, taking King's Landing, killing Tommen and Myrcella, and then getting into a war with Dany when she arrives to find her throne already taken by a sibling?

Seriously...I think that's pretty much what happens. I still have no idea how the white walkers are going to figure into all of this. I don't know if Martin does either, though.

I think Winter and the White Walkers are pretty much a force majeur that will interrupt all the non-fantasy stuff that might have otherwise happened. Including your theory, unfortunately. And I think if there was one thing Martin did know when he started this theory was how Winter/White Walkers would figure into it all. I also think part of his theme in all this is that the conflict for the crown is the literary equivalent of fiddling while Rome burns. Or freezes, in this case.

Of course, I could be wildly wrong as well.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I think Winter and the White Walkers are pretty much a force majeur that will interrupt all the non-fantasy stuff that might have otherwise happened. Including your theory, unfortunately. And I think if there was one thing Martin did know when he started this theory was how Winter/White Walkers would figure into it all. I also think part of his theme in all this is that the conflict for the crown is the literary equivalent of fiddling while Rome burns. Or freezes, in this case.

Of course, I could be wildly wrong as well.

Nah, I assume you are correct, and I think that's the general consensus from readers. Martin has just taken so damn long to go anywhere with the white walker story line and has visited it so infrequently that it barely seems significant compared to the war for the throne and everything going on in Essos.

I don't think a white walker invasion would necessarily impact my theory, though. Aegon is already about to take Storm's End and is very close to King's Landing, while the white walkers, assuming they take down the Wall, are an insane distance away. If I had to guess, it would be that the white walker threat finally peaks at the end of Winds of Winter, and the final book deals with the struggle against them.

I also think that Dany will return to Westeros midway through the next book. We know the Iron Fleet arrives at Meereen near the beginning of the book and that the Battle of Fire takes place shortly after. That basically gives Dany a way to get home quickly.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I don't think a white walker invasion would necessarily impact my theory, though. Aegon is already about to take Storm's End and is very close to King's Landing, while the white walkers, assuming they take down the Wall, are an insane distance away. If I had to guess, it would be that the white walker threat finally peaks at the end of Winds of Winter, and the final book deals with the struggle against them.

Even if Aegon were to take KL, I can't see how that would give him any control over the rest of Westeros. Why would anyone bend the knee to him? The only reason he may be able to take KL is if nobody else happens to have any troops close by. But otherwise, he'd have nothing more than his mercenaries and maybe a few Storm Lords. Maybe Dorne wouldn't object, but they're the weakest House. And he wouldn't have the power to enforce his rule anywhere else.

 

[Rich]

He's so old at this point, but I hope future writers take lessons from Martin. There is a lot of good, but speed of writing IS important. Some of these theories that are going to be revealed...had they been revealed a long, long time ago they would still be impactful and cool. But who cares now about Jon being a Targ? Big deal. We've known that for over a decade because dude has taken so damn long to write this shit. It's impact is going to be severely lessened due to the time frame being so elongated.

So now he wonders if he should change the twists....but that'll just make the story clumpier. It's been written and developed in a way for specific things to happen. Changing that just to keep people guessing will make previous hints and storylines seem pointless. So that doesn't work. So instead he's stuck with the boring route. Had he, you know, moved at just a slightly faster pace, these reveals would still mean something.

Oh well. I complain only because I cherish the story so much and want perfection.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Even if Aegon were to take KL, I can't see how that would give him any control over the rest of Westeros. Why would anyone bend the knee to him? The only reason he may be able to take KL is if nobody else happens to have any troops close by. But otherwise, he'd have nothing more than his mercenaries and maybe a few Storm Lords. Maybe Dorne wouldn't object, but they're the weakest House. And he wouldn't have the power to enforce his rule anywhere else.

If Aegon takes King's Landing and smashes the Lannisters and Tyrells in power, I can't imagine too many people won't bend the knee to him. Who else are they going to bend the knee to? Stannis? He's a million miles away fighting the Boltons and no one likes him anyway.

I stand by my projection that Randyll Tarly turns on the Tyrells and sides with Aegon in exchange for the promise of Highgarden when the war is over, and then Mace and his force side with Dany when she finally arrives. Not that Mace would have much choice at that point, as Margaery would be dead and any claim Mace's family had to the throne abolished.

I still have no idea how Littlefinger and Sansa are going to play into all of this, though.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

If Aegon takes King's Landing and smashes the Lannisters and Tyrells in power, I can't imagine too many people won't bend the knee to him.

I thought your theory was that Aegon can take KL because the Tyrell's are chasing down Ironborn in the Reach? There's no way Aegon can take KL if the Lannisters and Tyrells have their full strength there. He'd get smashed. The only way he takes KL is if it is essentially undefended because the Tyrell (particularly) and Lannister armies are elsewhere. He just doesn't have that many troops.

Who else are they going to bend the knee to? Stannis? He's a million miles away fighting the Boltons and no one likes him anyway.

Nobody. I mean, why bother bending the knee at all if the Crown cannot enforce its will? Perhaps a Kingsmoot to select a new King, and I don't think they'd take some complete unknown from overseas. Alternatively, I think Danys and her dragons would be a much more impressive option than some kid of questionable/unproveable lineage leading an army of sellswords.

I stand by my projection that Randyll Tarly turns on the Tyrells and sides with Aegon in exchange for the promise of Highgarden when the war is over, and then Mace and his force side with Dany when she finally arrives. Not that Mace would have much choice at that point, as Margaery would be dead and any claim Mace's family had to the throne abolished.

Your idea of Tarly turning is pretty intriguing, but that still gives Aegon only an army of sellswords and Tarly. I do agree he might be able to seize KL. I just don't see what he can do after that. He'd have to just hope the rest of Westeros bends the knee to him, and I can't see why they'd bother. There's not even any basis to believe he is who he claims to be. And, Garlan Tyrell -- who is much more capable than his father -- is in the process of rallying the rest of the Reach to himself anyway, which is going to mean he's got a lot of power gathered in one spot. Maybe Tarly turns on that, but damn, that's a risky play. The ironborn are pesky, but there really aren't that many of them, and Garlan should be able to smash them.

I still have no idea how Littlefinger and Sansa are going to play into all of this, though.

I don't either. But I'm not sure that will even be a major plot point other than just to resolve their storylines. Well....suppose that LF sees an opportunity to change his plot from marrying Sansa to Harry the Heir, to having Sansa marry Aegon? Maybe that would be the kind of thing that might get Aegon more support/legitimacy. Although Sansa is still suspected of killing Joffrey, so I'm not sure how much of a positive that really is.

Anyway, as I see it, Aegon is essentially trying to replicate what Aegon the Conqueror did, but without having any dragons. That's a damn tall order.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I thought your theory was that Aegon can take KL because the Tyrell's are chasing down Ironborn in the Reach? There's no way Aegon can take KL if the Lannisters and Tyrells have their full strength there. He'd get smashed. The only way he takes KL is if it is essentially undefended because the Tyrell (particularly) and Lannister armies are elsewhere. He just doesn't have that many troops.

I worded that poorly. I was referring to Margaery, not the Tyrells in general. I think Aegon's plan will work precisely because the bulk of the Tyrell power is elsewhere and because the Lannister armies are in the Riverlands. When I said he'd smash their power, I meant their claims to the throne in Tommen and Mags.

Nobody. I mean, why bother bending the knee at all if the Crown cannot enforce its will? Perhaps a Kingsmoot to select a new King, and I don't think they'd take some complete unknown from overseas. Alternatively, I think Danys and her dragons would be a much more impressive option than some kid of questionable/unproveable lineage leading an army of sellswords.

People, for whatever reason, loved the Targaryens, and historically the Iron Throne has belonged to whoever was strong enough to take it. Robert had a questionable lineage, but he killed Rhaegar and his allies (sort of) sacked King's Landing, so the throne went to him. If Aegon takes the throne, people will kneel to him because it's habit and human nature.

Your idea of Tarly turning is pretty intriguing, but that still gives Aegon only an army of sellswords and Tarly. I do agree he might be able to seize KL. I just don't see what he can do after that. He'd have to just hope the rest of Westeros bends the knee to him, and I can't see why they'd bother. There's not even any basis to believe he is who he claims to be. And, Garlan Tyrell -- who is much more capable than his father -- is in the process of rallying the rest of the Reach to himself anyway, which is going to mean he's got a lot of power gathered in one spot. Maybe Tarly turns on that, but damn, that's a risky play. The ironborn are pesky, but there really aren't that many of them, and Garlan should be able to smash them.

Don't forget that he'd also have the armies of Dorne in this scenario through a marriage with Arianne, and that Mace would be losing by far his most capable battle commander in Tarly.

Regardless, I think Aegon is in the middle of a perfect storm. He's young and impulsive, Arianne is coming to him and holds the key to Dorne between her legs, and Jon Connington is (secretly) dying and, thus, much more prone to rush things than he might have been otherwise. Remember that Connington has basically sworn to the ghost of Rhaegar that he would seat his son on the throne. If he sees an opening, as there currently seems to be in King's Landing, he's going to take it and worry about the consequences later.

Anyway, as I see it, Aegon is essentially trying to replicate what Aegon the Conqueror did, but without having any dragons. That's a damn tall order.

Yeah, and I think he will learn that to his peril when Dany shows up with actual dragons.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I worded that poorly. I was referring to Margaery, not the Tyrells in general. I think Aegon's plan will work precisely because the bulk of the Tyrell power is elsewhere and because the Lannister armies are in the Riverlands. When I said he'd smash their power, I meant their claims to the throne in Tommen and Mags.

But then you agree that the Lannister and Tyrell armies would be more or less intact -- just not in KL. So how does Aegon defeat them?

People, for whatever reason, loved the Targaryens, and historically the Iron Throne has belonged to whoever was strong enough to take it. Robert had a questionable lineage, but he killed Rhaegar and his allies (sort of) sacked King's Landing, so the throne went to him. If Aegon takes the throne, people will kneel to him because it's habit and human nature.

First, the Targaeryens were the Dragon kings, and Aegon has no dragons. He's really just...a guy who claims to be Targaeryen. Where is the proof he is who he claims to be?

Second, what "the people" want really doesn't matter. It's what the Lords decide, and there still isn't any reason the Lannisters or Tyrells -- who would hate Aegon precisely because he killed Margaery and Tommen (if he doesn't kill them, their claims survive) -- would bend the knee.

Don't forget that he'd also have the armies of Dorne in this scenario through a marriage with Arianne, and that Mace would be losing by far his most capable battle commander in Tarly.

The armies of Dorne are weak -- that's been stated previously. And Garlan, while perhaps not as good as Randyll Tarly, is certainly competent, and has overwhelming force.

Regardless, I think Aegon is in the middle of a perfect storm. He's young and impulsive, Arianne is coming to him and holds the key to Dorne between her legs, and Jon Connington is (secretly) dying and, thus, much more prone to rush things than he might have been otherwise. Remember that Connington has basically sworn to the ghost of Rhaegar that he would seat his son on the throne. If he sees an opening, as there currently seems to be in King's Landing, he's going to take it and worry about the consequences later.

I do agree that Aegon may well take KL and proclaim himself King. I just don't see anyone other than Dorne recognizing it. In fact, I think the Crown is going to essentially be vacant until ol' Jon Snow puts it on. And yeah, I think that's going to happen after Howland Reed spills the beans at a Kingsmoot.