Tracking the 2013 Draft Picks

[Douglar]

So there are no bottom of the NBA games tonight, so I'll give a little update.

That tight cluster of teams from 3/18 has spread apart, and the Cavs didn't take the high road.

 

[wuck]

There was a time (very recently) when some posters were especially worried about Dallas overtaking the Lakers.

With their loss tonight in Denver, Dallas is now 3 losses behind the Lakers (4 counting the tiebreaker) with 7 games to play. They are teetering on elimination, although they have a sliver of hope if both other teams crumble.

 

[rabman_gold]

these rabman magic number things never made any sense to me at all. which is probably my fault. to be more precise, i usually understand everything about them, except the numbers.

is this one indicating, for example, that the Bobcats need 7 losses to clinch the #1 lottery seed and the Pistons only need 1 loss? The Cavs need fewer losses for the #1 seed than for #3?

Dude, I can't blame you or ANYBODY else. Hell, even I confuse myself with this shit...

I'd like a moment to guide the lost lambs on these stupid numbers. Basically, a magic number has one purpose: Clinching a spot in the standings. With only two teams' records, you can get any number on the standings and successfully separate them.

Here's a couple imaginary examples:

In this one, the Cavs want to clinch first, but are second. In all magic numbers, you always add wins from one team and losses from another. Here's the rule of thumb:

You usually take the total number of games in a regular season: 82
You add a number to eliminate possible tie-breakers for coin-flips/playoff comparisons: 1
You then subtract either your target team's wins or losses, whatever is higher
You also subtract the opponent's higher result so that it is opposite of the team's: If you used one team's wins, the other team uses losses

Here's the catch 22: In the case of an uneven amount of wins/losses, you use the larger result. That will become the magic number.

This number represents two things:

1. It eliminates a team from a spot
2. The other team clinches the next highest spot as a result

Division	Team	Wins	Losses
1		38	20
2		32	30
3		24	40
4		22	40
5		18	44

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This is an imaginary example we'll use.

No tie-breakers have been decided.

1. Since Chicago has the higher amount of wins, to determine Cleveland's ability to get there, you use this formula: 83 - (38 + 30) = 15
   1. Note that it is not a magic number of 31 (32 Cavs wins and 20 Bulls losses) since it's more likely for the Bulls to clinch than get over taken
2. You repeat the process with all of the teams in the lineups

 

[wuck]

Now I'm more confused. :chuckles:

 

[Nathan S]

Ok, i see how to make magic numbers now. What do you do with them once you have them? Does the 15 mean Chicago needs 15 wins to prevent the Cavs from overtaking them?

 

[wuck]

Ok, i see how to make magic numbers now. What do you do with them once you have them? Does the 15 mean Chicago needs 15 wins to prevent the Cavs from overtaking them?

Let's take the Lakers. They have a magic number of 7 to reach the playoffs. If the combination of Lakers Wins + Jazz Losses reaches 7, the Lakers will make the playoffs.

So, both teams play on Friday. If the Lakers win their game, their magic number drops to 6. If the Jazz also lose their game, the Lakers magic number drops to 5.

If the Lakers magic number at the end of Friday night remains at 7, people will post distraught messages in this thread. If they somehow get to 5, there will be premature joy. If they reach 6, there will be a mixture of relief and continued agony. :chuckles:

 

[rabman_gold]

Now I'm more confused. :chuckles:

..... GYYAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!

Ah. :gap:

Ok, i see how to make magic numbers now. What do you do with them once you have them? Does the 15 mean Chicago needs 15 wins to prevent the Cavs from overtaking them?

Basically, that magic number of 15 would either require 15 Chicago wins, 15 Cleveland losses, or any combination of the two (7 Bulls wins + 8 Cavs losses, etc.).

 

[Snarly]

RCF teaches you math while getting great Information on the Cavs and or our other sports teams and I love It.

 

[petes999]

RCF teaches you math while getting great Information on the Cavs and or our other sports teams and I love It.

How about according to sports club stats website, LA has 57% chance of making playoffs today. Tomorrow it can be 84% chance or 40% chance. Of course the big reason is due to games left to play (6 and 7), thus big swings will occur as fewer games are left after tonight to make up a win/loss.

But, why is it that LA can gain 12% with win tonight or 12% with loss but Utah will gain only gain 6.6% with a win but lose 15% with a loss?

Because Utah is heavy favorite to beat NO at home while LA is just a slight favorite to beat Memphis. So Utah has more to lose than LA with a loss. This is already backed into the odds, so an upset by NO and only 5 games left to play will make LA heavy favorites if they can also win and thus be up by 1 and 1/2 games with 6 to play.

And if LA and Utah both win, it will be about 63.5% chance of us getting the pick. Here is to refs being briefed that LA should be in playoffs for good of tv ratings.

Alright enough math without a fricken beer.

 

[wuck]

The Lakers win tonight did bring relief and continued agony, but at least the end of all of this is almost here.

Utah's next two games are @GSW and hosting OKC. Lakers could really use a little breathing room, especially if they get stomped by the Clippers.

 

[Douglar]

This is going to come down to the wire.

Lakers magic number is 6, so that means 4 Lakers wins and 2 Utah losses gets the job done.

Do you suppose there will be more Clipper fans than Laker fans at Sunday's game?

Game Day	Lakers (40-36)	Jazz (40-37)
Sun, Apr 7	@Clippers	@Warriors
Mon, Apr 8
Tue, Apr 9	Hornets	Thunder
Wed, Apr 10	@Blazers
Thu, Apr 11
Fri, Apr 12	Warriors	T-Wolves
Sat, Apr 13
Sun, Apr 14	Spurs
Mon, Apr 15		@T-Wolves
Tue, Apr 16
Wed, Apr 17	Rockets	@Grizzlies

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[rabman_gold]

Seed	Team	Ws	Ls	%	M#	1st #	3rd #	5th #
1		18	58	.237	--	6	2	--
2		19	58	.247	--	6	2	--
3		23	53	.303	--	2	7	4
4		23	52	.307	--	2	7	5
5		25	51	.329	--	--	5	6
6		26	50	.342	--	--	4	6
7		27	49	.355	--	--	3	5
8		28	47	.373	--	--	2	4
9		28	47	.373	--	--	2	4
10		29	47	.382	--	--	1	3
11		31	44	.413	3	--	--	1
12		33	43	.434	--	--	--	--
13		37	39	.487	4	--	--	--
14		40	37	.519	6	--	--	--
EC		36	39	.480	3	N/A	N/A	N/A
WC		40	36	.526	6	N/A	N/A	N/A

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I'm updating this every Cavs game, so yeah.

 

[petes999]

Could be a good day for Lakers. Currently 63% chance of playoffs. A win and Utah loss increases it to 88.4%. A loss though and Utah win lowers it to 40%. If both lose then 66%.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

So I'm assuming the non lottery draft slots rotate between the conferences since I never see the Lakers pick lower than 16 and they passed the Celtics. I don't see them passing Houston or Golden State so we just need them to win as much as possible.

 

[CleveRocks]

There was a time (very recently) when some posters were especially worried about Dallas overtaking the Lakers.

With their loss tonight in Denver, Dallas is now 3 losses behind the Lakers (4 counting the tiebreaker) with 7 games to play. They are teetering on elimination, although they have a sliver of hope if both other teams crumble.

I will own up to being one of those worried about it. I think Dallas with Nowitzki is a better team than Utah. But you are correct in that they are pretty much out. Will be interesting to see how Cuban deals with that in the offseason. The Mavs are old and for next year, they are still dealing with commitments to Carter, Marion, and Mayo, none of which are optimal. Given that they have pretty crappy draft options after giving up what is now a lottery pick to OKC, it is not clear to me they can rebuild arould Dirk. Does anyone think they will try to trade Nowizki for draft picks and youth after the season?