Tristan Thompson

[Cavsfan1985]

I ran through the teams that have $12 million plus in cap space, and cant find legitimate threats for a max deal. I didn't factor in holds, but the market for him is slim. Many of the teams below have key pieces to pay this offseason.

The big teams will chase Aldridge, someone will pay attention to Josh Smith for their PF, and all of the ranked PF that are below him will fall into place for much cheaper. The market for bigs with his skill set even this year will be from $8-$12 million.

No way in hell will he get more than $13 million. I still dont buy the original offer. I think that was more distraction than anything.

Then with all of this space you have to figure that Matthews, Afflalo, Green, Harris, Jordan, Jackson, Carroll, & Monroe will all get a 1st look before Tristan.

Playing the other side, he could always take the qaulifing offer, then become a FA next year, when the cap goes up. If he has another year like this year and he develops more, we could be looking at 16MM+. Also, lets not forget his agent is the same as LJ. LJ could force the Cavs to pay him for him to sign.

 

[Cavsfan1985]

According to the article, we will pay 45 million in taxes just for giving TT 10 million, and then risk paying repeated tax as well, which may be just as expensive. That's a hell a lot of money. I'm wondering how Gilbert intends to get this money back.

You have to look at is from the big picture from Dan Gilberts perspective. While the Cavs might lose money with that tax hit, he is making a ton of money in his other business with having LJ back. Between the extra money he makes at just the casino and through flash seats has to give him one hell of a war chest of cash. Both those business suffer if LJ leaves. Lets also not forget the Cavs have one more year on their local tv deal. A team coming of a championship would help his leverage to get a huge payday on this as well. I could see Dan spending what ever it takes next year to try and get the title.

 

[bigfoot5415]

I ran through the teams that have $12 million plus in cap space, and cant find legitimate threats for a max deal. I didn't factor in holds, but the market for him is slim.

The big teams will chase Aldridge, someone will pay attention to Josh Smith for their PF, and all of the ranked PF that are below him will fall into place for much cheaper. The market for bigs with his skill set even this year will be from $8-$12 million.

No way in hell will he get more than $13 million. I still dont buy the original offer. I think that was more distraction than anything.

Then with all of this space you have to figure that Matthews, Afflalo, Green, Harris, Jordan, Jackson, Carroll, & Monroe will all get a 1st look before Tristan.

Playing the other side, he could always take the qaulifing offer, then become a FA next year, when the cap goes up. If he has another year like this year and he develops more, we could be looking at 16MM+. Also, lets not forget his agent is the same as LJ. LJ could force the Cavs to pay him for him to sign.

Totally agree with him possibly taking a QO.

Lebron isnt stupid. He knows what TT is and what is value is. He also knows what overpaying him will do to the team. Pay TT $17 & kick JR Smith to the curb, or pay TT $14, and keep JR? Easy decision for him and the team.

I think people are taking the Rich Paul connection too far.

 

[AustinCarr]

This situation reminds me an awful lot of Brian Grant and the late 90's 'Blazers/Heat. Grant, a decent but not great player (Nice rebounder and decent defender who was not much of a scorer or rim protector) backing up an All Star level guy on a team that is close to championship level, parlays potential into a massive contract. Grants contract became completely untouchable.

I have grown to like TT, but he is simply not a max player. Max deals should be going, IMO, to all stars not to average starter level guys.

 

[Cavsfan1985]

Totally agree with him possibly taking a QO.

Lebron isnt stupid. He knows what TT is and what is value is. He also knows what overpaying him will do to the team. Pay TT $17 & kick JR Smith to the curb, or pay TT $14, and keep JR? Easy decision for him and the team.

I think people are taking the Rich Paul connection too far.

I don't think it has anything to do with paying TT 17MM. The cavs just lose a little leverage in telling TT to get his best offer and we will match. But the LJ connection is going to require us to pay more then market for TT IMO. I could see a 2-3 MM a year increase just because of the LJ factor.

 

[NasstyNate]

Playing the other side, he could always take the qaulifing offer, then become a FA next year, when the cap goes up. If he has another year like this year and he develops more, we could be looking at 16MM+. Also, lets not forget his agent is the same as LJ. LJ could force the Cavs to pay him for him to sign.

I'm interested in what you mean by another year like this year. I can't figure out how that connects with $16m a year.

 

[Gus Zing]

Lets just say I'm hoping he's right

5. Kevin Love: 5-year max with the Cavaliers.
17. Tristan Thompson: 5 years, $55 million with the Cavaliers.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/6/...ency-predictions-kevin-love-lamarcus-aldridge

 

[nikolajz1]

I still can't wrap my mind around TT probably being paid the same as Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson and Kyrie. It makes almost no logical sense haha

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

This situation reminds me an awful lot of Brian Grant and the late 90's 'Blazers/Heat.

Reminds me a lot of the Hot Rod Williams deal. Cavs' third big man (essentially a hustle big) received a (then) overpay offer from the Miami Heat, who wanted him to start. It was too much money, but the Cavs were over the cap and couldn't replace him if he left. So, they were forced to match and overpay the guy. He ended up developing a decently reliable left baseline jumper, which helped, but he was still overpaid.

Best of a bad set of a choices, unfortunately.

 

[Gus Zing]

Reminds me a lot of the Hot Rod Williams deal. Cavs' third big man (essentially a hustle big) received a (then) overpay offer from the Miami Heat, who wanted him to start. It was too much money, but the Cavs were over the cap and couldn't replace him if he left. So, they were forced to match and overpay the guy. He ended up developing a decently reliable left baseline jumper, which helped, but he was still overpaid.

Best of a bad set of a choices, unfortunately.

To make things worse.

Draymond Green outplayed Tristan in the finals (at least the last 3 games). Now word is he's willing to take less money to keep the core together in Golden State.

Green finished 2nd for DPOY as well.

Not a good look if he's taking less and Tristan is trying to get all he can get.

 

[nikolajz1]

To make things worse.

Draymond Green outplayed Tristan in the finals (at least the last 3 games). Now word is he's willing to take less money to keep the core together in Golden State.

Green finished 2nd for DPOY as well.

Not a good look if he's taking less and Tristan is trying to get all he can get.

I really think this is all just like a little bit of payback by Lebron to Gilbert. He's gonna make him pay out of the ass for the letter.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

To make things worse.

Draymond Green outplayed Tristan in the finals (at least the last 3 games). Now word is he's willing to take less money to keep the core together in Golden State.

Green finished 2nd for DPOY as well.

Not a good look if he's taking less and Tristan is trying to get all he can get.

I think it's a bit unfair to judge any of our guys based on those last three games. They all were expending so much effort that the minutes they were asked to play were just too much. And, our lack of bench depth meant that we were basically stuck playing the same style of offense (if you could call it that) from one game to the next. We became incredibly predictable, and guys were forced into matchups that did not show them at their best. In contrast, GSW could sub guys in and out depending upon how things were going so as to get the best possible matchups. That made their entire lineup look better because they were consistently put in matchups designed for them to succeed.

Best example of that was Bogut. Normally, a good player, but the matchups didn't favor him so he got benched and replaced by guys for whom the matchup was much better. We didn't have that option.

 

[LeBro]

You have to look at is from the big picture from Dan Gilberts perspective. While the Cavs might lose money with that tax hit, he is making a ton of money in his other business with having LJ back. Between the extra money he makes at just the casino and through flash seats has to give him one hell of a war chest of cash. Both those business suffer if LJ leaves. Lets also not forget the Cavs have one more year on their local tv deal. A team coming of a championship would help his leverage to get a huge payday on this as well. I could see Dan spending what ever it takes next year to try and get the title.

At some point we're talking about major diminishing returns though.

I mean, suppose everyone from last year comes back. At that point, we're already favorites to win the Finals. The team went on a tear 33-3 after the Smith/Shumpert/Mozgoz acquisitions. I mean, honestly, how much better could the team really get? I'm not saying the team's true talent level is 75 wins, but they're still probably the best team in the league.

Let's say we can trade Haywood for (hypothetically) Rudy Gay. Gay is making $12M next year; with the luxury tax penalties, that's like paying him what -- ~$40-50M total!? At what point does it become a bad investment for Gilbert?

Gay is not a necessity, he is a nice-to-have, a cherry on top of what's already a delicious sundae. I'm sure Gay makes us a little better, but how much could a fourth option possibly move the needle? It's like (making up numbers), "Dan, do you want to pay $140M for an 23% chance of winning the Finals, or do you want to pay $190M for a 24% chance of winning the Finals?"

It's not like Rudy Gay is going to triple casino revenue. He probably has virtually no impact on that. At some point it just seems like a really bad investment on Gilbert's part, and even if this is his pet project, the businessman in him is going to have a hard time justifying it. I know LeBron is holding him hostage, but at some point Gilbert is going to draw the line. There has to be a breaking point where it doesn't make financial sense anymore.

I don't know. I get that Gilbert has incentive to foot the bill for a big luxury tax, but I feel like the angle is overplayed a bit.

 

[cavsfever]

At some point we're talking about major diminishing returns though.

I mean, suppose everyone from last year comes back. At that point, we're already favorites to win the Finals. The team went on a tear 33-3 after the Smith/Shumpert/Mozgoz acquisitions. I mean, honestly, how much better could the team really get? I'm not saying the team's true talent level is 75 wins, but they're still probably the best team in the league.

Let's say we can trade Haywood for (hypothetically) Rudy Gay. Gay is making $12M next year; with the luxury tax penalties, that's like paying him what -- ~$40-50M total!? At what point does it become a bad investment for Gilbert?

Gay is not a necessity, he is a nice-to-have, a cherry on top of what's already a delicious sundae. I'm sure Gay makes us a little better, but how much could a fourth option possibly move the needle? It's like (making up numbers), "Dan, do you want to pay $140M for an 23% chance of winning the Finals, or do you want to pay $190M for a 24% chance of winning the Finals?"

It's not like Rudy Gay is going to triple casino revenue. He probably has virtually no impact on that. At some point it just seems like a really bad investment on Gilbert's part, and even if this is his pet project, the businessman in him is going to have a hard time justifying it. I know LeBron is holding him hostage, but at some point Gilbert is going to draw the line. There has to be a breaking point where it doesn't make financial sense anymore.

I don't know. I get that Gilbert has incentive to foot the bill for a big luxury tax, but I feel like the angle is overplayed a bit.

Come on -- you CANNOT be complacent about a championship. Last year proved that we have a serious weakness as far as depth goes. We cannot count on AV at all and Kyrie has always been fragile. Lebron is getting old and it is incredibly counterproductive for the future to put these huge burdens on him during the playoffs. Adding 1-2 quality players who can be playmakers while Lebron sits for a while would be a huge help. We can't just rely on everything going well next year. And the West team next year might be better than the Warriors. Say the Spurs get LMA and bring everyone else back...you want to go up against that juggernaut with a thin bench? Someone like Gay could be the difference between being a top contender and being a prohibitive championship favorite, or the difference between one championship and multiple ones.

We also need to develop Love as a playmaker who can take over the offense while Lebron sits, but that's a different story.

 

[I'mWithDan]

At some point we're talking about major diminishing returns though.

I mean, suppose everyone from last year comes back. At that point, we're already favorites to win the Finals. The team went on a tear 33-3 after the Smith/Shumpert/Mozgoz acquisitions. I mean, honestly, how much better could the team really get? I'm not saying the team's true talent level is 75 wins, but they're still probably the best team in the league.

Let's say we can trade Haywood for (hypothetically) Rudy Gay. Gay is making $12M next year; with the luxury tax penalties, that's like paying him what -- ~$40-50M total!? At what point does it become a bad investment for Gilbert?

Gay is not a necessity, he is a nice-to-have, a cherry on top of what's already a delicious sundae. I'm sure Gay makes us a little better, but how much could a fourth option possibly move the needle? It's like (making up numbers), "Dan, do you want to pay $140M for an 23% chance of winning the Finals, or do you want to pay $190M for a 24% chance of winning the Finals?"

It's not like Rudy Gay is going to triple casino revenue. He probably has virtually no impact on that. At some point it just seems like a really bad investment on Gilbert's part, and even if this is his pet project, the businessman in him is going to have a hard time justifying it. I know LeBron is holding him hostage, but at some point Gilbert is going to draw the line. There has to be a breaking point where it doesn't make financial sense anymore.

I don't know. I get that Gilbert has incentive to foot the bill for a big luxury tax, but I feel like the angle is overplayed a bit.

I think this is certainly true to an extent but all bets seem to be off until we win that first title. At that point, you start the mini tear down and try to retool. Until then, you blow as much money as necessary to keep the team together and make a run at it.

Gilbert realizes how hard it is to build a championship team.....I think that point was driven home REALLY hard when LeBron left. We spent 4 years, with a slew of high drafts picks and couldn't even muster the 8th seed in an AWFUL Eastern Conference.

Dan, more than anything, wants to win. He he has stated that numerous times and has proven, in the past, he's willing to foot millions in taxes to keep teams together. Obviously not to this extent but Gilbert doesn't strike me as the type of guy who's going to get cheap when we're right on the cusp of getting over the hump. If it fails spectacularly in 2016 or we win a title, by all means start shuffling the roster. At that point, it makes sense to shave money off our tax bill. Until then, pedal to the floor. We have playoff income for the foreseeable future, a cornered secondary ticket market and a rising salary cap. The year to be cheap is not this one IMO.

 

[Kbiz]

At some point we're talking about major diminishing returns though.

I mean, suppose everyone from last year comes back. At that point, we're already favorites to win the Finals. The team went on a tear 33-3 after the Smith/Shumpert/Mozgoz acquisitions. I mean, honestly, how much better could the team really get? I'm not saying the team's true talent level is 75 wins, but they're still probably the best team in the league.

Let's say we can trade Haywood for (hypothetically) Rudy Gay. Gay is making $12M next year; with the luxury tax penalties, that's like paying him what -- ~$40-50M total!? At what point does it become a bad investment for Gilbert?

Gay is not a necessity, he is a nice-to-have, a cherry on top of what's already a delicious sundae. I'm sure Gay makes us a little better, but how much could a fourth option possibly move the needle? It's like (making up numbers), "Dan, do you want to pay $140M for an 23% chance of winning the Finals, or do you want to pay $190M for a 24% chance of winning the Finals?"

It's not like Rudy Gay is going to triple casino revenue. He probably has virtually no impact on that. At some point it just seems like a really bad investment on Gilbert's part, and even if this is his pet project, the businessman in him is going to have a hard time justifying it. I know LeBron is holding him hostage, but at some point Gilbert is going to draw the line. There has to be a breaking point where it doesn't make financial sense anymore.

I don't know. I get that Gilbert has incentive to foot the bill for a big luxury tax, but I feel like the angle is overplayed a bit.

It doesn't have to necessarily be Gay but we need to find a SF who can come in and contribute to winning. This is the best way to give LBJ much need rest, which in turn, should only increase our "championship window."

If we can find that guy, whether he's making $5 or $12 million a year, is going to be huge for our future success down the road.

Is 2 more years of contention worth it to DG? I'd assume so.