Tristan Thompson

[Ecmic]

Personally i think the Rodman argument has merit. Is Tristan as good as Rodman, no, Rodman might be the greatest roll player of all time. But, Tristan might be a 75% Rodman, which is still very good.

There was a study conducted that looked at the distribution of individual rebounding statistics throughout the history of the NBA. It concluded that, statistically, a rebounder of Rodman's caliber should appear in the NBA about once every 400 years. He has 6 of the 7 greatest rebounding seasons in NBA history. And the difference between the 7th best season and the 10th best season (which happens to be DeAndre's 2015 season) is the same-sized difference between the 10th best season and the 22nd best season. So Rodman wasn't just a leading rebounder - his single season performances basically blew everybody else's out of the water. Thompson, meanwhile, won't ever even be the best rebounder in any given season.

Thompson might end up producing 75% as many rebounds as Rodman (right now he's pretty much exactly on that pace per 100 possessions), but in my opinion that doesn't make him 75% of the rebounder Rodman was. That final 25% in production is what separates a top 15 rebounder in any given season from a once-every-several-hundred-years type of rebounder. And when the chasm is that stark, I don't know if comparison between the two is instructive.

 

[Rich]

Yea, it's why the Rodman stuff just doesn't work. Rodman wasn't just a great rebounder which is what people expect TT to become. He was the greatest rebounder. He was also a two time defensive player of the year. It's just not realistic to toss Rodman's name out there as someone TT can replicate. He can't.

And even if he hit his ceiling and became 75% of Rodman, that's NOT a max player.

 

[Paul]

Look at Tristan's per 36 mins rebounding #s next to Omer Asik. Asik has same O rebounds and way more defensive. Tristan's defensive rebounding isn't particularly good. Asik got 12 mil per season and his stats look really similar to Tristans and he's a 7 footer and a starter.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...&p2=asikom01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=#per_minute::none

That said, Tristan's offensive rebounding skill is clearly among the best in the league atm.

 

[rd667]

This is a serious question. Has there been a player with this little upside and this mediocre to demand such a contract? This is beyond bizarre to me.

 

[Otsego Mar]

This is a serious question. Has there been a player with this little upside and this mediocre to demand such a contract? This is beyond bizarre to me.

Not that I can recall. This is called the LeBron Effect. We have officially entered the twilight zone.

 

[Paul]

.This article goes into a lot of detail on the TT stuff. A lot of it is stuff we've talked about but it's a nice summary.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...n-himself-is-catch-22-for-cleveland-cavaliers

 

[Ecmic]

.This article goes into a lot of detail on the TT stuff. A lot of it is stuff we've talked about but it's a nice summary.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...n-himself-is-catch-22-for-cleveland-cavaliers

The article had me until this:

if he struggles, it's easier to hold on to him with a new long-term deal, but it's going to be nigh impossible to end the championship drought in Northeast Ohio.

Id like to ask the author, if Cleveland had a healthy Irving and Love against Golden State but Thompson struggled - does he think it'd have been "nigh impossible" for Cleveland to beat Golden State? Is Thompson the deciding factor in whether a team is a championship favorite or an extreme underdog? Really?

 

[kovanovich]

I know that Torn didn't mean to use Atlanta as his primary example, but it sort of works as a random team. Personally, I don't find it implausible that Atlanta would prefer to sign a 25 year old Thompson next summer for a 25% max contract (starting at ~$22M) for 4 years over a 30 year old Horford at a 30% max contract (starting at ~$27M) for 5 years.

That would give Atlanta a front court rotation of Splitter/Thompson/Millsap, which is arguably similar to the Cavs' current Mozgov/Thompson/Love front court.

I am not saying that I think Atlanta should do this or that it is no-brainer or anything like that. I'm just saying that it strikes me as plausible, especially in view of the following:

• It's hard to say Horford exactly outplayed Thompson during this year's playoffs;
  
• Horford has basically missed 2 of the last 4 seasons due to injuries; and
  
• Horford, at the cusp of 30, is already declining as a player, and would command a 5 year contract, which would take him to his 35th birthday. This contract would represent significant risk, and the $5-6M more per year that Horford would command than Thompson would introduce additional financial constraints for that franchise.

 

[Rick Astley]

The article had me until this:

if he struggles, it's easier to hold on to him with a new long-term deal, but it's going to be nigh impossible to end the championship drought in Northeast Ohio.

Id like to ask the author, if Cleveland had a healthy Irving and Love against Golden State but Thompson struggled - does he think it'd have been "nigh impossible" for Cleveland to beat Golden State? Is Thompson the deciding factor in whether a team is a championship favorite or an extreme underdog? Really?

That unfair notion has been coming a lot from CLE/LeBron/Love haters. I will never understand their logic when we never saw even a minute of action from Love vs GS.

EDIT: I mean the thought of TT being the make or break against GS and other similar teams. He's certainly a good player but by no means of being the piece to kill teams.

 

[Paul]

Was looking for the Raptors fans' perspective on the TT situation, and stumbled upon this post which lays out some estimates for our payroll next few years.

http://www.torontoraptorsforum.com/post/show_single_post?pid=1288064557&postcount=126

 

[Tornicade]

Look at Tristan's per 36 mins rebounding #s next to Omer Asik. Asik has same O rebounds and way more defensive. Tristan's defensive rebounding isn't particularly good. Asik got 12 mil per season and his stats look really similar to Tristans and he's a 7 footer and a starter.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...&p2=asikom01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=#per_minute::none

That said, Tristan's offensive rebounding skill is clearly among the best in the league atm.

just some history hear. from 2008 to 2013 the salary cap hovered at 58 million.

6 years of stagnation.
58 million cap( actual numbers are lower as max salary is calculated by BRI and not actual cap.)
30% =17.5 million
25%= 14.5 Million
20% = 11.6 Million
15%= 8.7
10%= 5.8 million
thats a 3 million difference between each tier.
70 million
30%=21
25%=17.5
20%=14
15%=10.5
10%=7.0
4 million difference between each tier.
89 million
30%-26.7
25%-22.25
20%-17.8
15% 13.35
10%- 8.9
4 and a half million difference per tier
102 Million
30%- 30.6
25%- 25.5
20%- 20.4
15%- 15.5
10%-10.2
5 million increase per tier

This is what players are gonna be looking at.
2013 30% player is making between 15-25% in 2017.
a 20% tier player is making as much as 10% player.

This difference between the tiers and the upcoming increase is having an impact on these contract negotiations and will have a bigger one next season. when 4 and 5 years guys are not gonna ignore the value of their contract for 75to 80% of the life of the contract.

You can cite David west, an anomaly. or a JV who might settle for security but if Thompson is willing to bet on himself and risk a sure thing more power to him.

Thompsons willing to fight for what he thinks he is. I respect that.

 

[Paul]

just some history hear. from 2008 to 2013 the salary cap hovered at 58 million.

6 years of stagnation.
58 million cap( actual numbers are lower as max salary is calculated by BRI and not actual cap.)
30% =17.5 million
25%= 14.5 Million
20% = 11.6 Million
15%= 8.7
10%= 5.8 million
thats a 3 million difference between each tier.
70 million
30%=21
25%=17.5
20%=14
15%=10.5
10%=7.0
4 million difference between each tier.
89 million
30%-26.7
25%-22.25
20%-17.8
15% 13.35
10%- 8.9
4 and a half million difference per tier
102 Million
30%- 30.6
25%- 25.5
20%- 20.4
15%- 15.5
10%-10.2
5 million increase per tier

This is what players are gonna be looking at.
2013 30% player is making between 15-25% in 2017.
a 20% tier player is making as much as 10% player.

This difference between the tiers and the upcoming increase is having an impact on these contract negotiations and will have a bigger one next season. when 4 and 5 years guys are not gonna ignore the value of their contract for 75to 80% of the life of the contract.

You can cite David west, an anomaly. or a JV who might settle for security but if Thompson is willing to bet on himself and risk a sure thing more power to him.

Thompsons willing to fight for what he thinks he is. I respect that.

Tons of good big men just signed deals well below what Thompson is asking for. These aren't old contracts they were just done in July. These players and their agents should have been using the same information and logic that you are. These deals were all inked with the knowledge that the cap was about to rise dramatically. The cap rise was factored into the deals. The reason Thompson is asking more than these comparable names is that he knows the Cavs are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

• Robin Lopez: 4 years, $54 million with Knicks
• Tyson Chandler 4 years, $52 million with Suns
• Ed Davis: 3 years, $20 million with Blazers
• Kosta Koufos: 4 years, $33 million with Kings
• Amir Johnson: 2 years, $24 million with Celtics
• Omer Asik: 5 years, $60 million with Pelicans

 

[Otsego Mar]

TT is piggy backing off LeBron......there really is no question. The above contracts paint that picture very clearly.

 

[spydy13]

Tons of good big men just signed deals well below what Thompson is asking for. These aren't old contracts they were just done in July. These players and their agents should have been using the same information and logic that you are. These deals were all inked with the knowledge that the cap was about to rise dramatically. The cap rise was factored into the deals. The reason Thompson is asking more than these comparable names is that he knows the Cavs are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

• Robin Lopez: 4 years, $54 million with Knicks
• Tyson Chandler 4 years, $52 million with Suns
• Ed Davis: 3 years, $20 million with Blazers
• Kosta Koufos: 4 years, $33 million with Kings
• Amir Johnson: 2 years, $24 million with Celtics
• Omer Asik: 5 years, $60 million with Pelicans

Tristan is definitely in the same class as Chandler, Lopez, and Asik (although you could argue that they are all better at blocking shots, but TT probably is a better rebounder then all of them so we'll call it a wash. All of those guy, Imo, would be an overpay at $12-13M under the old system, but under the new TV money I think that's perfectly fair. The fact that TT (or Rich Paul) wants even more than that is just insane, and cannot be justified by his play on the court.

I mean, I like TT and he provides a value to our team. But at a certain point you have to be realistic and not let your agent be an asshole. If he feels that he can improve his game to justify that money, then he should either take the QO or sign a 3 year deal with an option that lets him hit the market again when he's had more time to develop and is still young. But he can't just expect to get paid the max when he's had four solid, but not great years to start his career. That level of entitlement is not good for a championship team.

 

[David.]

The article had me until this:

if he struggles, it's easier to hold on to him with a new long-term deal, but it's going to be nigh impossible to end the championship drought in Northeast Ohio.

Id like to ask the author, if Cleveland had a healthy Irving and Love against Golden State but Thompson struggled - does he think it'd have been "nigh impossible" for Cleveland to beat Golden State? Is Thompson the deciding factor in whether a team is a championship favorite or an extreme underdog? Really?

there are a lot of people arguing that kyrie's defense is very suspect and thatlove would only provide x amount for us and we would stil end up losing.

werent we losing these games by 15 after game 3? consistently?

to add to the argument, while TT isnt deserving of the max, it doesnt look like we're going to be able to turnhim into an asset. Se were literally just losing someone very solid, and it wasnt like we were running away with the title before him, and other teams, like the spurs, just got a lot better.