LEVELAND: While all of the attention this season has been focused on Kyrie Irving’s upcoming contract extension, along with the will-he-or-won’t-he pursuit of LeBron James, there is another intriguing, equally important decision facing the Cavaliers this summer.
How much is Tristan Thompson worth? Or more accurately, what is Thompson worth in relation to other young bigs in the league, and are the Cavs willing to meet the price?
You might be surprised at how much he can command.
Thompson, like Irving, can be extended this summer. He is under the Cavs’ control for next season at a manageable $5.4 million, then any extension he signs would kick in for the 2015-16 season.
By then, he can expect to earn triple the $4 million he is making this year.
Thompson’s 29 double-doubles entering Saturday lead the Cavs, rank fifth in the East and are tied for 16th in the league. He has more double-doubles than Serge Ibaka, Paul Millsap, Jonas Valanciunas, Kenneth Faried and Derrick Favors.
He is durable, having played in 193 consecutive games prior to Saturday. He even played through a bout of food poisoning recently against the Los Angeles Clippers.
He’s a high-character guy, well respected in the locker room and active in the community. As a person, he is an organization’s dream. He just turned 23 a few days ago and should continue to improve with age.
But is he worth $12 million a season? The Cavs might soon have to decide.
The benchmark contracts for Thompson belong to Favors and Larry Sanders. The Milwaukee Bucks gave Sanders a four year, $44 million extension after he averaged 9.8 points and 9.5 rebounds last season while ranking second in the league in blocks and finishing seventh in Defensive Player of the Year rankings.
Sanders was drafted the year before Thompson but is two years older. He rewarded the Bucks’ investment by injuring his thumb during a nightclub brawl early in the season and things only regressed from there.
His shooting percentage plummeted this year, his defense wasn’t as stellar and now he has been shut down for the rest of the season following a fractured orbital bone.
Sanders’ final numbers for the season — 23 games, averages of 7.7 points and 7.2 rebounds and a .469 shooting percentage — are hardly worth the $11 million salary that begins next season.
Favors’ deal was even richer at four years and $49 million. He rarely started with the Utah Jazz prior to this season, but his numbers now are similar to Thompson’s.
Favors, a natural power forward selected by the New Jersey Nets with the third pick in 2010 (and later traded to the Jazz), is averaging 13 points, 8.6 rebounds and shooting .518 this season.
Thompson, a natural power forward taken fourth overall by the Cavs in 2011, is averaging 11.7 points, 9.2 rebounds and shooting .468 this season.
But Thompson seems to be wearing down lately, has struggled defensively and is one of the most offensively limited big men in the NBA. His .524 shooting percentage on shots within 5 feet of the rim is sixth-worst in the league (minimum 150 attempts) among all post players. He has also had his shot blocked 89 times this season, sixth-most in the league and fourth among bigs.
If Irving takes a max contract this summer and the Cavs extend Thompson at the going rate, they will have roughly $28 million tied up to those two players for the 2015-16 season — or about 45 percent of what you can expect the salary cap to be for that season.
Now you understand why the Cavs needed James to opt out this summer if he had any intention of returning. If James returns to Miami for even one more season, it will be increasingly difficult for the Cavs to fit in a max contract for a free agent in the summer of 2015.
And once/if Thompson signs an extension, it could be difficult to trade him anytime soon.
Teams are more leery of trading for future dollars than ever before. It’s why the Cavs couldn’t unload the final two guaranteed years on Jarrett Jack’s deal last month and why the Kings have been unsuccessfully shopping Jason Thompson since signing him to a five-year extension.
If the Cavs and Thompson are unable to come to an agreement this summer, he will play out next season and enter restricted free agency in the summer of 2015. The Cavs will have the right to match any offer he receives or risk losing him for nothing. The Jazz, after signing Favors to that big extension, are in a similar position with leading scorer Gordon Hayward.
Hayward will be a restricted free agent after the season and could command a four year, $50 million offer from another team. That team, in fact, could be the Cavs.
With Luol Deng expected to move on after the season, Hayward could be a fallback option if James remains in Miami.
Regardless of the targets, the risk for the Cavs this summer is overspending on a player simply because they’re going to have money available. They won’t have that money available in 2015 if both Irving and Thompson are locked into extensions, so they could feel the pressure to spend it now while it’s available.
Thompson’s performance in recent weeks has regressed. He’s averaging 8.3 points and 6.3 rebounds in March, hasn’t recorded a double-double yet this month and his minutes have been reduced by coach Mike Brown in a handful of games.
One thought is that he has finally hit the wall after playing for Team Canada all last summer during the FIBA Americas tournament. He never received much time off because he was in the gym working on changing his shooting hand, now he’s enduring another mentally and emotionally draining season with the Cavs.
This March slump won’t cost Thompson millions, but it will give the Cavs something else to think about before making a big offer.
How high will they go? We’ll soon find out.