Zack Grienke Available?

[TJ Detweiler]

Dolan's too cheap for a talent as godly as Zackary.

 

[Steve_424]

Dolan's too cheap for a talent as godly as Zackary.

Except for that he offered Sabathia $18 M per year...

 

[di0p]

Buster Olney from ESPN today

There will be teams that would love to add Zack Greinke but don't have the caliber of prospects necessary to get him. There will be teams that would love to have Greinke but, like the Kansas City Royals, are concerned about matching the timing of his contractual situation with their organizational development.

But there will be a lot of interest in a former Cy Young Award winner who will turn 27 this week, a pitcher who has Greinke's command and potential for dominance.

Any team entering a conversation with the Royals about Greinke must know that a refusal to deal prospects would be off-limits. Kansas City would ask the New York Yankees for Jesus Montero and more, and the Boston Red Sox about Casey Kelly and more, and the Minnesota Twins about Aaron Hicks and more.

With that in mind, it's worth culling through the teams to determine which ones would be most likely to make up the Zack Greinke market:

A Greinke deal doesn't fit these teams:

1. The Tampa Bay Rays, who typically hoard their top prospects rather than trade them for more expensive players.

2. The Toronto Blue Jays, who have a lot of excellent young pitching and prospects but would immediately put themselves back into a Roy Halladay box -- getting a star who is moving toward possible free agency.

3. The Baltimore Orioles, who are still a couple of years from contending.

4. The Cleveland Indians, who don't have much money to spend and are rebuilding their stock of young pitching.

5. The Oakland Athletics, who have excellent pitching but have a glaring need for power.

6. The Seattle Mariners, who have an ace in Felix Hernandez and need major upgrades among their position players.

7. The San Diego Padres. Like the Rays, they won't give up their best young prospects to land an expensive veteran.

8. The Arizona Diamondbacks. They are restructuring, and their more glaring needs are in other spots.

9. The San Francisco Giants. Pitching is not a problem for them now. (Although it is fun to think about a rotation of Lincecum-Matt Cain-Jonathan Sanchez-Greinke, given that any Giants-Royals deal for Greinke almost certainly would have to include Madison Bumgarner.)

10. The Florida Marlins. They'd be paying about $20 million and then $26 million to Josh Johnson and Greinke in the next couple of years if they made a deal. That's not really their style.

11. The Houston Astros. They're going young, and it'd be tough for them to rip out the seedlings of their reconstruction and immediately trade them in an effort to win right away.

12. The Pittsburgh Pirates. They are where the Royals were in 2007-08, so it would make no sense for them to put guys like Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen on the table.

13. The Detroit Tigers. They've got an excellent young rotation in place, with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello (who made great strides in the second half) and Max Scherzer, and Jacob Turner on the way. They have other needs.

Teams that might have the desire to land Greinke but not necessarily the caliber of prospects:

1. The Chicago White Sox. They are aggressive and big-time deal-makers, as we know, but rival executives who combed through their farm system before the July 31 trade deadline don't see a lot of talent in the White Sox cupboard.

2. The Washington Nationals. This is a team with two of the top young prospects in baseball, with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper as well as an excellent young closer in Drew Storen. But unless they put those guys on the table -- and they almost certainly wouldn't part with Strasburg or Harper -- they might have a difficult time piecing together a deal suitable for Kansas City.

Teams that might have the desire to land Greinke but may or may not have what it takes to get him:

1. The New York Mets. With Johan Santana down for much of 2011, there wouldn't be a more perfect Band-Aid than Greinke. But the next Mets GM -- Sandy Alderson, perhaps -- will have to decide whether it would better in the big picture to swap prospects to make the team better now, or to wait. And although Ike Davis and other young Mets have shown promise, the Royals might look for other stuff, given their needs. For example, they already have a top young first-base prospect on the rise in Eric Hosmer.

2. The Milwaukee Brewers. Greinke would be a great complement for Yovani Gallardo, but like the Indians, the Brewers are in the midst of trying to rebuild their young pitching, and it's uncertain whether they would have enough to satisfy Kansas City's demands.

3. The Los Angeles Dodgers. They probably already shot their big bullet of the offseason, agreeing to terms with veteran lefty Ted Lilly, and their most attractive trade piece, Matt Kemp, might not look so good to the Royals. By the time Kansas City would be ready to contend, Kemp would be on the verge of free agency; the Royals will want prospects on the verge of breaking into the big leagues, not older guys.

4. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Rival evaluators love Angels prospect Mike Trout, who is regarded as one of the fastest players in baseball, and he'd be an interesting fit for the Royals in a possible Greinke conversation. But keep in mind that the Angels' needs are really about their position players; their rotation is not the problem.

Teams that have the need for Greinke and perhaps the desire -- and have the caliber of prospects necessary to get him (and these are listed in no particular order):

1. The Minnesota Twins. Greinke would be perfect for the Twins in so many ways -- he is the kind of front-line ace with the swing-and-miss stuff to match up against great lineups in October, and the Twins have the kind of market and clubhouse in which Greinke would fit neatly. The question would be whether the Twins would part with their best prospects to get Greinke; as Charley Walters writes, they rejected a proposal from Seattle for outfielder Aaron Hicks that would have netted them Cliff Lee. The circumstances would be a little different in a Greinke deal -- he has two full seasons before he's a free agent, he is younger and might be more open to an extension than Lee would have been. But the Twins' philosophy through the years has been to develop pitching from within; they'd have to paint outside those lines to make this happen.

2. The Colorado Rockies. They need an upgrade with their starting pitching, and they have a lot of good, young players.

3. The Philadelphia Phillies. GM Ruben Amaro has demonstrated he can go big-game hunting for pitching, having landed Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt in the past 15 months. But he has expressed a concern about his thinning farm system, and it's hard to imagine the Phillies' making a deal for Greinke without including Domonic Brown and others. Like with the Giants, it's fun to think about how good they could be with a rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels and Greinke.

4 and 5: The Yankees and Red Sox. The first question that both teams would ask before seriously pursuing Greinke is how they think he would adapt to their high-pressure markets. Keep this in mind: The Yankees do have excellent catching prospects, and the Royals need catching, and even if they sign Cliff Lee, they would not hesitate to make a Greinke deal if they thought he could adjust to New York. GM Brian Cashman always has believed in shooting for high-end pitching.

A nightmare scenario for the rest of the AL: If Andy Pettitte retired and the Yankees signed Lee and made a Greinke deal, their rotation would look like this:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Lee
3. Greinke
4. Phil Hughes
5. A.J. Burnett

6. The Atlanta Braves. But their focus might be more about outfield and infield help because they have good pitching already.

7. The Chicago Cubs. Who knows whether the Cubs would seriously consider doing something like this, but it's worth mentioning -- the Royals need a long-term solution at shortstop, and the Cubs have Starlin Castro.

8. The Cincinnati Reds. They have good prospects. They could use an anchor for their rotation. They'd probably be in the running, as they were for Lee.

9. The Texas Rangers. If they lose Lee, they'll be looking for a veteran starter like Greinke, and they have good young players to dangle.

10. The St. Louis Cardinals. They could offer Colby Rasmus, a nice starting point for any conversation between the Royals and Cardinals, but remember, the Cardinals are facing a major payroll crisis -- they already have committed huge dollars to Matt Holliday and need to pay Albert Pujols while keeping Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter; those four players alone might cost the Cardinals upwards of $70 million in 2012. Greinke's talent certainly fits, but his salary might not.

 

[PIP]

Except for that he offered Sabathia $18 M per year...

If Sabathia would have accepted that they would have had to get the defibrillators juiced up cause Dolan would have had a heart attack.... A nice save face offer from him...

 

[Steve_424]

If Sabathia would have accepted that they would have had to get the defibrillators juiced up cause Dolan would have had a heart attack.... A nice save face offer from him...

Probably the biggest myth out there. Teams don't make "save face" offers...if a team makes a formal contract offer, they are prepared for the player to accept it. The Indians would have gladly given Sabathia that contract. The issue for the Indians with Sabathia was contract length, not money. They didn't want a repeat of Travis Hafner.

 

[PIP]

Oh I apologize.. I didn't realize you were a member of a MLB front office...

What position did you or do you hold ?

 

[Steve_424]

Oh I apologize.. I didn't realize you were a member of a MLB front office...

What position did you or do you hold ?

What position do YOU hold?

You're bashing me for assuming the contract offer was legit, but it's OK for you to speculate that it wasn't?

Makes sense...

 

[PIP]

I'm not bashing you at all... I just think you're naive if you don't believe that teams make token offers to look better amongst their fan base...

The Indians knew full well that the offer was not going to be sufficient... Hell, the fans knew that, they knew the offer that was going to be out there before it was made and they knew the type of offers that were going to come from the Yankees and other teams.... If that type of info is public knowledge, I would have to assume the intelligent people in the front office positions know exactly what type of offer they can make that would look good, but ultimately wouldn't be accepted...

In most cases teams know their player, they know the desire of the player, the market value and what is out there.....

 

[Steve_424]

I'm not bashing you at all... I just think you're naive if you don't believe that teams make token offers to look better amongst their fan base...

The Indians knew full well that the offer was not going to be sufficient... Hell, the fans knew that, they knew the offer that was going to be out there before it was made and they knew the type of offers that were going to come from the Yankees and other teams.... If that type of info is public knowledge, I would have to assume the intelligent people in the front office positions know exactly what type of offer they can make that would look good, but ultimately wouldn't be accepted...

In most cases teams know their player, they know the desire of the player, the market value and what is out there.....

If what you say is true, why wouldn't they have offered 7 years, $130 M? Sabathia signed for 7 years, $161 M, so it'd still be well under what he signed for...if you're going to make a "save face" offer, why not make it look better, especially when you pretty much knew he wanted out of here?

I firmly believe that the Indians legitimately offered 4 years, $78 M, as reported. While I'm sure they knew Sabathia was gone, I think they would have been THRILLED if he had accepted it.

 

[OhioSlayer]

Not going to happen, but one can dream I guess.

 

[Chris]

I can't believe anyone even believes this is possible..

 

[macbdog]

The speculation is over...the Royals have now said that they are taking offers on Grienke this offseason.

A few things to consider:

3) He has social anxiety disorder, a condition marked by tension in social settings. This could mean he'd be more comfortable in a mid/low market setting. Especially when you look at #4.

Most won't agree with me, but I think three things.

1) With a deep minor league system, the Indians could get Grienke.


...and the big one...

3) The Indians could and would sign Grienke to an extension to keep him here long term

I agree with talking with Royals and seeing what it might take, but have to differ with some of these points.

- With social anxiety, Grienke would, if he followed the textbook example, be uneasy in crowds. The mere fact that he has returned to playing pro baseball- and done so at a high level- is proof that he is managing the condition pretty well. If he went to a bigger market, he would just have his psych up his Paxil prescription. Not to mention that if the club was planning on depending on him to pitch in the playoffs, that would include pitching in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park in a tense situation. Going to a small market doesn't avoid that, frankly, unless the team sucks.

- As of right now, I still have to dispute this. I just think that if the Royals have half a brain- and that is debatable- I see them getting a nice haul for Grienke. I really don't think the Tribe has filled enough holes on this team to be dealing Jason Kipnis, Alex White, Bryce Stowell and Felix Sterling for Zach Grienke- and if I am was Dayton Moore, this is the exact package I would ask for.

- How do you know he would sign a long-term deal here? He signed the deal the Royals offered for the same reason that Cliff Lee signed his4-5 years ago- it was guaranteed money for his non-FA years. Just like Fausto and Cliff were brilliant to sign theres - Cliff made 5M the year he spent back in the minors, and the contract is also why he was guaranteed a spot back on the team the next year- it was a no-brainer to sign a long-term deal that the Royals were offering after just one productive season. I just don't see this as even close to a slam-dunk. If he already wants out of KC, how would he handle coming to the team that finished just a tick over the Royals?

- Is he really that good? He was outstanding in 09- but so was Fausto in 07. Grienke finished with a 4 ERA this past year. Good? Definitely. Ace material? Heck no. Was 2009 an aberration, a career year? It has to be asked. Not saying he isn't a serviceable starter, but considering the cost to get him, you have to really be sure he is a guaranteed ace.

 

[Steve_424]

I can't believe anyone even believes this is possible..

It's certainly possible. The Indians have the prospects and Grienke is a rare type of player who would probably be happy to sign and extension and stay here.

Is it probable? Not at all, as the Indians likely wouldn't be willing to risk the prospects needed with no guarantee of Grienke being here past 2012. The Royals also would probably rather deal him outside the division.

 

[Chris]

It's certainly possible. The Indians have the prospects and Grienke is a rare type of player who would probably be happy to sign and extension and stay here.

Is it probable? Not at all, as the Indians likely wouldn't be willing to risk the prospects needed with no guarantee of Grienke being here past 2012. The Royals also would probably rather deal him outside the division.

Yeah well that was my point- a lot of teams have the prospects to get it done, but I doubt they'd all be willing to part with those prospects. Furthermore, with the Indians knowing he's gone in 2012, it just means...it is not gonna happen.

 

[Steve_424]

Yeah well that was my point- a lot of teams have the prospects to get it done, but I doubt they'd all be willing to part with those prospects. Furthermore, with the Indians knowing he's gone in 2012, it just means...it is not gonna happen.

That's what we disagree on...I think they could get him re-signed. I just don't think they'll take their chances on it.