CBBI
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Weird to leave out Sexton's 27.8% AST% as an 18/19 year old NCAA freshman...right? Very similarly to Harden, and in contrast with the others, he came into the NBA fairly young, and as a result was not a primary ballhandler right away, and saw his assist percentage drop. But I think it's reasonable to believe that with more experience, and given the opportunity to run the offense, he could in time be a ~30% AST% guy again. Again, not guaranteeing it, just saying it's on the spectrum of realistic outcomes.
Agree with what you're saying about Nance, fwiw.
Oh absolutely it's possible for Sexton to develop into a very good playmaker. We've seen guys like Russell and Booker this decade make 15-20% gains in AST% before their rookie contracts ended, so it's not unprecedented whatsoever.
I just feel like there are factors working against him.
The biggest one specifically being Garland's presence on the roster. I believe Garland will end up being on the ball quite a bit more than Sexton will. Collin, perhaps to his overall developmental detriment, be given more of a "go score" focus.
I know they're talking about them being dueling point guards, but I have a suspicion that Garland's going to be the PG and Sexton's going to be the SG for all intents and purposes.
The other thing that I've noticed is that outside of Devin Booker (who is obviously a SG by trade), most of the guys who made massive AST% gains this century within their first few years, guys like D-Wade and Deron Williams among them, started out with a much higher playmaking base from an AST% perspective than Sexton showed in Year 1.