Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[dark2332]

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To me, it's that Sexton is much more likely to be a better defender in the PG role than as an SG.

Ideally, you'd like defenders to be able to guard one position above/below their own. If Sexton is your PG, then he guards the opponent's PG, and perhaps can guard some SG's on switches. Then you have some other, large dude at SG who hopefully can guard 1-3.

But if Sexton is your "big" guard, your backcourt is going to be much more limited defensively. So that's why I'm not thrilled with the idea of consigning him to be a 2 guard for the rest of his career. I think it's going to make it harder for him personally on the defensive end, and also deprives the team of a longer backcourt defender capable of switching onto larger guys.

It’s all likely a moot point—if they both pan out as expected, one of the two is likely to be dealt down the line.

You’d pick the one you want to build around and get good value on the other.

If one isn’t as expected, he likely becomes a 6th man down the line.

If neither develops into what we expect, well.... shit.

 

[Jordan]

Jking, there is one important correlation in those stats that you posted above.

33% became all stars, but it did hit 3 of 4 on guys taken in the top ten. Draft capital does mean something in this instance.

Right, but that number decreases significantly if you look at his NBA stats... This has been my point. I was using the college stats to humor people, but personally, I am not at all comfortable discounting all of his pro stats.

Finally, my initial point had nothing to do with being an all-star. It had to do with being a facilitator.

But that's partly the point, right? You can mix and match all sorts of stats and get wildly different results. There has to be a convincing case as to why one set is more probative than another.

I personally think 3pt.% - assuming reasonable volume - is a hugely important stat. Not only because of its direct importance, but because it is going to be less dependent upon system, so your exact "role" or how competent your teammates were matters less.

I think Sexton's tremendous improvement in 3 pt. shooting is a major factor in projecting his likely future value. Your projection of him having a 33% chance of becoming an All-Star overlooks that completely.

I mean, sure, I fundamentally agree with 3pt% and volume being important, but then you want to discount all other pro stats. But here is the thing, the 40% three-point percentage has absolutely nothing to do with him becoming a good facilitator. That has been my point.

30% chance he becomes a lead ballhandler and an allstar. Sounds like really good odds from the 8th pick.

2 words Marquis Chriss

Agreed... and I never said I thought Sexton was a bad pick or a bad pro. In fact, earlier in the conversation today I acknowledged Sexton was clearly the best pick at eight. He has proven that.

To me, the question we should be asking is to which position is he best suited. And to me, Sexton is much more likely to be a better defender in the PG role than as an SG.

Ideally, you'd like defenders to be able to guard one position above/below their own. If Sexton is your PG, then he guards the opponent's PG, and perhaps can guard some SG's on switches. Then you have some other, large dude at SG who hopefully can guard 1-3.

But if Sexton is your "big" guard, your backcourt is going to be much more limited defensively. So that's why I'm not thrilled with the idea of consigning him to be a 2 guard for the rest of his career. I think it's going to make it harder for him personally on the defensive end, and also deprives the team of a longer backcourt defender capable of switching onto larger guys.

Yep, as I have said, this is a symptom of the problem with the Cavs' draft. It has nothing to do with Sexton's offense... Frankly, I think he could be an all-star level two-guard, but the question is where will he be able to defend best. Hopefully he can translate his wingspan into guarding bigger players. I think it is possible. But, from an offensive standpoint, I am not whatsoever concerned about the Garland/Sexton pairing.

 

[Nathan S]

I would be shocked, whether it works or not, if the Cavs don’t at least try to start Garland/Sexton in the same backcourt right away.

I know you’re not a huge Garland fan, but I think there’s like a near 100% chance he’s a starting guard on opening night.

I think there's a chance, but "near 100%" is obviously an exaggeration. A lot depends on how he plays in preseason, of course, which will be his first competitive basketball in nearly a year. If he starts balling like he didn't miss a beat, then sure, he probably starts on opening night. If, more realistically, he shows some degree of rust, then I don't think it would be prudent to force him into the starting lineup right away, and hopefully the Cavs agree. I swear I'm not saying that because I dislike the pick...I'm just hoping the Cavs are patient and do what's best for both of them instead of trying to prove that a Sexton/Garland backcourt can work right off the bat.

 

[CBBI]

I think there's a chance, but "near 100%" is obviously an exaggeration. A lot depends on how he plays in preseason, of course, which will be his first competitive basketball in nearly a year. If he starts balling like he didn't miss a beat, then sure, he probably starts on opening night. If, more realistically, he shows some degree of rust, then I don't think it would be prudent to force him into the starting lineup right away, and hopefully the Cavs agree. I swear I'm not saying that because I dislike the pick...I'm just hoping the Cavs are patient and do what's best for both of them instead of trying to prove that a Sexton/Garland backcourt can work right off the bat.

The thing is, I don’t even disagree with your overarching point that they shouldn’t rush Garland if he looks terrible in the preseason and they should do what’s best for both guys long-term development.

I just also know that NBA teams don’t necessarily do what they should do a good majority of the time.

Sub 20 win teams almost never bring healthy top 5 picks off the bench without a clear cut established veteran blocking them no matter how unprepared they might look in the preseason.

Top five picks that aren’t able to crack the starting lineup immediately has proven to be a pretty good indication that they’re going to bust (Bender, Hezonja, Bennett among others).

Unless he’s physically not healthy enough to play, Garland is going to be one of the starting guards on this team even if stinks up the joint in preseason. I would bet just about anything I had on it. There’s just not two guys in front of him.

I feel like the Cavs would rather attempt to see if a Garland/Sexton pairing can work and watch it go down in miserable defensive flames than actually start someone like Knight or Clarkson over one of them.

I also think that Beilein and his staff are totally prepared for a rough season. The Cavs are going to be really bad again and I think everyone involved knows it.

To me, this season is going to be about finding out what can work and what can’t work specifically with the small handful guys who have a chance at being here in 2-3 years.

 

[Nathan S]

The thing is, I don’t even disagree with your overarching point that they shouldn’t rush Garland if he looks terrible in the preseason and they should do what’s best for both guys long-term development.

I just also know that NBA teams don’t necessarily do what they should do a good majority of the time.

Sub 20 win teams almost never bring healthy top 5 picks off the bench without a clear cut established veteran blocking them no matter how unprepared they might look in the preseason.

Top five picks that aren’t able to crack the starting lineup immediately has proven to be a pretty good indication that they’re going to bust (Bender, Hezonja, Bennett among others).

Unless he’s physically not healthy enough to play, Garland is going to be one of the starting guards on this team even if stinks up the joint in preseason. I would bet just about anything I had on it. There’s just not two guys in front of him.

I feel like the Cavs would rather attempt to see if a Garland/Sexton pairing can work and watch it go down in miserable defensive flames than actually start someone like Knight or Clarkson over one of them.

I also think that Beilein and his staff are totally prepared for a rough season. The Cavs are going to be really bad again and I think everyone involved knows it.

To me, this season is going to be about finding out what can work and what can’t work specifically with the small handful guys who have a chance at being here in 2-3 years.

Fair enough, the prospect of Knight, let alone Clarkson, starting next to Sexton is far more terrifying than Garland starting next to Sexton. I don't really buy that Knight had a positive effect on Sexton anyway; I just think he was naturally getting more comfortable scoring as the season went on. Really would like to see Cedi in the backcourt with either of them and just keep Clarkson/Knight out of the picture altogether, but I guess that's not realistic.

 

[CBBI]

Fair enough, the prospect of Knight, let alone Clarkson, starting next to Sexton is far more terrifying than Garland starting next to Sexton. I don't really buy that Knight had a positive effect on Sexton anyway; I just think he was naturally getting more comfortable scoring as the season went on. Really would like to see Cedi in the backcourt with either of them and just keep Clarkson/Knight out of the picture altogether, but I guess that's not realistic.

If I had to make a guess right now...

Garland, Sexton, Osman, Nance and Love are your starters on Opening Night.

Over/Under 1.5 players currently with guaranteed contracts that aren’t here by the time the season starts?

 

[Nathan S]

If I had to make a guess right now...

Garland, Sexton, Osman, Nance and Love are your starters on Opening Night.

Over/Under 1.5 players currently with guaranteed contracts that aren’t here by the time the season starts?

Yeah, I suppose that's a pretty good guess. Would really like to see Windler start instead of Garland, because that would actually give us a decently long/versatile lineup overall. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Agree it might be a moot point depending on what trades happen between now and opening night.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Yeah, I suppose that's a pretty good guess. Would really like to see Windler start instead of Garland, because that would actually give us a decently long/versatile lineup overall. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Whether or not Garland/Sexton are the starting backcourt for Game 1, that combo is pretty clearly Beilein's plan going forward. Lack if length isn't going to deter him.

I'm sufficiently (perhaps even irrationally) skeptical about that to skip the beginning of the season, and not post at all about Garland for awhile. Otherwise, I'll just sound like a bitter old man, depressing myself and annoying everyone else. Same with KPJ - I just can't keep "Dion II" out of my head.

But I am interested in seeing how Sexton/Osman/Windler/Zizic/Nance develop. And hopefully at some point, I'll be able to overcome my own biases enough to judge Garland and KPJ fairly.

 

[dark2332]

Whether or not Garland/Sexton are the starting backcourt for Game 1, that combo is pretty clearly Beilein's plan going forward. Lack if length isn't going to deter him.

I'm sufficiently (perhaps even irrationally) skeptical about that to skip the beginning of the season, and not post at all about Garland for awhile. Otherwise, I'll just sound like a bitter old man, depressing myself and annoying everyone else. Same with KPJ - I just can't keep "Dion II" out of my head.

But I am interested in seeing how Sexton/Osman/Windler/Zizic/Nance develop. And hopefully at some point, I'll be able to overcome my own biases enough to judge Garland and KPJ fairly.

So, now you have an issue with Beilein, in addition to Garland and Porter Jr.?

I mean, I’m sure Beilein would rather his guards have more length, but we took BPA with the intent to play him.

Porter Jr. was taken with the last pick in the 1st round with a purchased pick. Even if he has a Dion-like career, that would actually be successful considering his draft location. Of course, with his size and length, a 6’6 Dion willing to defend has value in the league.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

So, now you have an issue with Beilein, in addition to Garland and Porter Jr.?

I have an issue with Beilein to the extent he truly sees Garland/Sexton as a long-term starting NBA backcourt. If the secret plan is to move one of them, that's different. But of course, if that plan is being deliberately hidden, there's no way I can know that.

Porter Jr. was taken with the last pick in the 1st round with a purchased pick. Even if he has a Dion-like career, that would actually be successful considering his draft location. Of course, with his size and length, a 6’6 Dion willing to defend has value in the league.

I suppose I'd lump a Garland/Sexton backcourt together with KPJ as being indicative of "smartest guy in the room" syndrome.

I don't believe the dual/small combo guard thing works - or has ever really worked - in the NBA. At least for the last 4 decades or so. And 29 teams passed on KPJ for reason apart from his athleticism. But Beilein is going to be the guy to "get through" to him. I think those are generally the ugliest/least enjoyable kind of gambles to watch.

But really...I'm now doing exactly what I said I wouldn't, and know I shouldn't. So I'll stop.

 

[dark2332]

I have an issue with Beilein to the extent he truly sees Garland/Sexton as a long-term starting NBA backcourt. If the secret plan is to move one of them, that's different. But of course, if that plan is being deliberately hidden, there's no way I can know that.

I don’t think there’s any basis to the statement that John Beilein fully believes they are an ideal long term pairing. Likewise, it would then be irrational to be upset with him prior to even knowing his intentions just because he discussed playing them together offensively in a press conference.

It’s not like he strictly played two 6’2 guards together in college. This isn’t his “thing.”

They took BPA and now they’re going to assess the situation.

It’s not like Beilein scouted Garland and started drooling over his fit with Sexton. They were excited about Garland, the individual player.

The fit with Sexton, that was something they were not worried about—nor should they be. They’ll cross that bridge later. In the meantime, they’ll try to make the best of it.

I think he, along with Koby, have talked about how defensively they are going to try to neutralize their size with length behind them for this upcoming season.

I’m sure everyone understands it’s going to be a challenge defensively. The man’s forgotten more about basketball than any of us know, after all.

We know we’re going to be bad this year. Hell, we want to be. What’s wrong with running the pair and pushing your decision date back?

You’d like to see both Sexton and Garland in your system prior to having to make that call, right?

 

[2 For The Brew]

In an 82 game season Beilein is going to coach this team like a test pilot flying a new airplane. He'll mix up lineups, vary playing time due to matchups, figure out his best death lineup, lose a bunch of games, make mistakes - and he, the players, the media, opponents and fans will all learn exactly what our players can do.

There will be lots of time during the 3,936 minutes in the season for both Garland and Sexton to get work at the point. If they don't work together defensively against most or all matchups then we will see that.

Personally I'd like to watch them play extensively before drawing conclusions.

If both pan out but can't play together then we did draft BPA and can trade one for assets. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[CavsFanJapan]

In an 82 game season Beilein is going to coach this team like a test pilot flying a new airplane. He'll mix up lineups, vary playing time due to matchups, figure out his best death lineup, lose a bunch of games, make mistakes - and he, the players, the media, opponents and fans will all learn exactly what our players can do.

There will be lots of time during the 3,936 minutes in the season for both Garland and Sexton to get work at the point. If they don't work together defensively against most or all matchups then we will see that.

Personally I'd like to watch them play extensively before drawing conclusions.

If both pan out but can't play together then we did draft BPA and can trade one for assets. Nothing wrong with that.

I agree. Somewhere I heard that coaching is kinda like being a fighter pilot and making adjustments on the fly. Can't remember where I heard that......

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I don’t think there’s any basis to the statement that John Beilein fully believes they are an ideal long term pairing. Likewise, it would then be irrational to be upset with him prior to even knowing his intentions just because he discussed playing them together offensively in a press conference.

Absent any other information, the most reasonable baseline assumption for top ten picks in consecutive drafts is that you intend to play them together. Here, there was zero pre-draft leaking that we planned to, or attempted to, trade either guy, and Beilein flat-out stated that he sees zero problem playing them together. Every single leak/hint I've seen suggests that belief is genuine.

What is your objective basis for choosing not to believe him? Seems to me your assumption is a lot less fact-based than is mine.

It’s not like he strictly played two 6’2 guards together in college. This isn’t his “thing.”

I'm not arguing that he has a fetish for short guards in particular. I'm saying that he doesn't appear to have any aversion to two short combo guards working just fine in the NBA.

They took BPA and now they’re going to assess the situation.

Again, your apparent read on this - that they just took BPA and secretly plan to trade one or other down the road - is more or less a whole-cloth invention on your part. I see no actual evidence supporting that belief.

I think he believes it will work just fine, just as he apparently believes that playing Love full-time at the 5 regardless of matchups will work just fine.

You’d like to see both Sexton and Garland in your system prior to having to make that call, right?

I think having two guys like that as your starting backcourt may work just fine during the regular season. But it's fool's gold that won't be apparent until much further down the line when you're trying to become a competitive playoff team.

 

[Nathan S]

Absent any other information, the most reasonable baseline assumption for top ten picks in consecutive drafts is that you intend to play them together. Here, there was zero pre-draft leaking that we planned to, or attempted to, trade either guy, and Beilein flat-out stated that he sees zero problem playing them together. Every single leak/hint I've seen suggests that belief is genuine.

What is your objective basis for choosing not to believe him? Seems to me your assumption is a lot less fact-based than is mine.



I'm not arguing that he has a fetish for short guards in particular. I'm saying that he doesn't appear to have any aversion to two short combo guards working just fine in the NBA.



Again, your apparent read on this - that they just took BPA and secretly plan to trade one or other down the road - is more or less a whole-cloth invention on your part. I see no actual evidence supporting that belief.

I think he believes it will work just fine, just as he apparently believes that playing Love full-time at the 5 regardless of matchups will work just fine.



I think having two guys like that as your starting backcourt may work just fine during the regular season. But it's fool's gold that won't be apparent until much further down the line when you're trying to become a competitive playoff team.

When you say it may work "just fine" in the regular season, are you including defense? We already smashed the record for worst defensive season in NBA history last year...yeah, I know some of that had to do with historically incompetent coaching, but a lot of it was due to personnel as well, and the situation looks really grim on that front if we'll be playing the Sexton/Garland backcourt and Love at center for significant minutes. Good news is I really don't think we're gonna lose our 2020 pick