Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[Jordan]

If we take that same list of 9 guys, and add "shot at least 40% from 3 in their rookie season", how does that affect the pool?

Because to me, that was the game changer with Sexton in terms of his ceiling during his rookie season. We didn't run an offense, the defense was a shambles...so the kid worked obsessively on his shot and became deadly.

Can we then adjust their assist/turnover ratio, assist percentage, etc. to Sexton's level for his rookie year? What about his net rating? Win shares? Etc.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Jking, there is one important correlation in those stats that you posted above.

33% became all stars, but it did hit 3 of 4 on guys taken in the top ten. Draft capital does mean something in this instance.

 

[Nathan S]

Doesn't sound to me like Beilein wants to have Sexton and Garland split PG duties as primary/backup. Sounded to me from his public statements that he sees them playing together primarily.

Hard for me to tell how much of that is real and how much is politics. I can see Beilein not wanting to put one ahead of the other before he sees both of them in practice...hard for me to see him ultimately putting both on the court in the starting lineup. Unless Sexton's ten times the defensive player he was last season it'll just be a complete bloodbath, and I think Beilein wants this team to be competitive.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Can we then adjust their assist/turnover ratio, assist percentage, etc. to Sexton's level for his rookie year? What about his net rating? Win shares? Etc.

But that's partly the point, right? You can mix and match all sorts of stats and get wildly different results. There has to be a convincing case as to why one set is more probative than another.

I personally think 3pt.% - assuming reasonable volume - is a hugely important stat. Not only because of its direct importance, but because it is going to be less dependent upon system, so your exact "role" or how competent your teammates were matters less.

I think Sexton's tremendous improvement in 3 pt. shooting is a major factor in projecting his likely future value. Your projection of him having a 33% chance of becoming an All-Star overlooks that completely.

 

[NMCav]

Hard for me to tell how much of that is real and how much is politics. I can see Beilein not wanting to put one ahead of the other before he sees both of them in practice...hard for me to see him ultimately putting both on the court in the starting lineup. Unless Sexton's ten times the defensive player he was last season it'll just be a complete bloodbath, and I think Beilein wants this team to be competitive.

I understand college is different then the NBA. But Beilein did play Trey Burke (Terrible Defender) next to Nik Stauskaus (Terrible Defender) I know Stauskaus had height. But Beilein's number 1 priority has always been buckets. Figuring out the defense is another one of his assistants issues (Yalich at Michigan, Now it falls on JB Bickerstaff). While many don't think its smart we are a tanking team and you can't learn if you don't get thrown into the fire. So I am guessing Sexton and Garland will both start and close games together. Then throughout the game one will get taken off the court the other will stay in.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I find it hard to believe that Sexton's opportunity as a facilitator will be much different with Garland than it would have been with Delly, Clarkson, Knight, etc.

I agree, but I don't think anyone envisioned any of those guys being Sexton's long-term running mate in the backcourt. Delly and Knight both are primarily PG's, and Clarkson is an SG with tunnel vision.

ETA: Also, don't look now, but we're all actually having a decent discussion in GenPop.

 

[Cavatt]

30% chance he becomes a lead ballhandler and an allstar. Sounds like really good odds from the 8th pick.

2 words Marquis Chriss

 

[Nathan S]

I understand college is different then the NBA. But Beilein did play Trey Burke (Terrible Defender) next to Nik Stauskaus (Terrible Defender) I know Stauskaus had height. But Beilein's number 1 priority has always been buckets. Figuring out the defense is another one of his assistants issues (Yalich at Michigan, Now it falls on JB Bickerstaff). While many don't think its smart we are a tanking team and you can't learn if you don't get thrown into the fire. So I am guessing Sexton and Garland will both start and close games together. Then throughout the game one will get taken off the court the other will stay in.

Yeah, I just hope Beilein understands college is different from the NBA. Two 6'2" guys, neither old enough to drink, would be a bit suspect defensively at the NCAA level. It would be unheard of at the NBA level, as far as I'm aware.

Also what's up with this "you can't learn if you don't get thrown into the fire" stuff? Is there any other team that asks players to do impossible things in the name of "learning"? I just don't like it.

 

[NMCav]

Yeah, I just hope Beilein understands college is different from the NBA. Two 6'2" guys, neither old enough to drink, would be a bit suspect defensively at the NCAA level. It would be unheard of at the NBA level, as far as I'm aware.

Also what's up with this "you can't learn if you don't get thrown into the fire" stuff? Is there any other team that asks players to do impossible things in the name of "learning"? I just don't like it.

Its not impossible for Collin to learn how to guard shooting guards. Some guy named Patrick Beverly has made a living out of guarding the other teams best guard and hes 6-1 with a slightly smaller wingspan then Sexton. So who's to say Sexton can develop into an adequate defender at SG?

 

[Nathan S]

Its not impossible for Collin to learn how to guard shooting guards. Some guy named Patrick Beverly has made a living out of guarding the other teams best guard and hes 6-1 with a slightly smaller wingspan then Sexton. So who's to say Sexton can develop into an adequate defender at SG?

Ok, I grant that it's not literally impossible. But it's nearly impossible, right? Beverley made the All-Defensive first team a year or two ago, and even then he's not really an ideal SG defender because of his size. Sexton's probably more likely to become as good as Curry offensively than he is to become as good as Beverley defensively.

 

[CBBI]

Hopefully they let Sexton run the starting lineup and Garland run the bench unit...I have a hard time believing they're actually crazy enough to start them both, and benching Sexton right off the bat would be absurd. But we'll see.

I would be shocked, whether it works or not, if the Cavs don’t at least try to start Garland/Sexton in the same backcourt right away.

I know you’re not a huge Garland fan, but I think there’s like a near 100% chance he’s a starting guard on opening night.

 

[Cavatt]

I would be shocked, whether it works or not, if the Cavs don’t at least try to start Garland/Sexton in the same backcourt right away.

I know you’re not a huge Garland fan, but I think there’s like a near 100% chance he’s a starting guard on opening night.

To me it seems like the way they are guaranteeing the pick conveys even with Love. After Clarkson gets traded, I would imagine one of them moves to the bench.

 

[NMCav]

Ok, I grant that it's not literally impossible. But it's nearly impossible, right? Beverley made the All-Defensive first team a year or two ago, and even then he's not really an ideal SG defender because of his size. Sexton's probably more likely to become as good as Curry offensively than he is to become as good as Beverley defensively.

Beverly is fine guarding SG's. Hes the perfect example of overcoming height to be a good defender. Dude is a bull dog on defense. And I also realize its a long shot he becomes as good as Beverly. Avery Bradley also made strides as a defender early in his career and hes 6-2 as well. But why can't he be McCollum defensivley? Is that 1 inch of height really that much of a difference? He doesn't have to become an elite defender. Is having Sexton play SG on defense really impeding his development? On offense he excels with another ball handler playing with him. Sexton looked the best last year when he was playing next to Knight. Teaching Garland and Sexton how to play on and off ball offensively helps both of them long term for today's NBA where players need to play on and off ball. Will this pairing work long-term? Your guess is as good as mine. Does it matter if the defense is horrible this year while we tank? I don't think it does.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I just wanted to chime in and say this might be the best discussion I've seen in GenPop in a long time.

Keep it coming

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Beverly is fine guarding SG's. Hes the perfect example of overcoming height to be a good defender. Dude is a bull dog on defense. And I also realize its a long shot he becomes as good as Beverly. Avery Bradley also made strides as a defender early in his career and hes 6-2 as well. But why can't he be McCollum defensivley? Is that 1 inch of height really that much of a difference? He doesn't have to become an elite defender. Is having Sexton play SG on defense really impeding his development? On offense he excels with another ball handler playing with him. Sexton looked the best last year when he was playing next to Knight. Teaching Garland and Sexton how to play on and off ball offensively helps both of them long term for today's NBA where players need to play on and off ball. Will this pairing work long-term? Your guess is as good as mine. Does it matter if the defense is horrible this year while we tank? I don't think it does.

To me, the question we should be asking is to which position is he best suited. And to me, Sexton is much more likely to be a better defender in the PG role than as an SG.

Ideally, you'd like defenders to be able to guard one position above/below their own. If Sexton is your PG, then he guards the opponent's PG, and perhaps can guard some SG's on switches. Then you have some other, large dude at SG who hopefully can guard 1-3.

But if Sexton is your "big" guard, your backcourt is going to be much more limited defensively. So that's why I'm not thrilled with the idea of consigning him to be a 2 guard for the rest of his career. I think it's going to make it harder for him personally on the defensive end, and also deprives the team of a longer backcourt defender capable of switching onto larger guys.