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Coronavirus - Official Notifications Etc. PM Stannis with Official Updates for Posting

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Szuch77 said:
I recently compared the demographics between Italy and the US bc people kept comparing us to them and it didn’t make sense to me. The disparity in numbers and living is crazy. From what I can see, I think their mortality rate is do to extreme proximity of living. Italy is basically half the size of Texas or the size of Arizona. They basically are living on top of each other unlike how spread out most of us are. 23% of the population smokes compared to 13% of Americans. This is crucial, especially when this virus effects the lungs. And finally, their population is crazy old.Their average age is 46 where area is 38. When you break that down farther, the Italy’s age percentage breakdowns are 60% above 40 and 25% above 65. Whereas the US age percentage breakdowns are 26% over 40 and 13% over 65. I think these reasons and probably some others are the main culprits.
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They are also a couple of weeks ahead of the US in the spread of the virus . 11 days ago was the first day they had more deaths than the US had today.
 
KI4MVP said:
They are also a couple of weeks ahead of the US in the spread of the virus . 11 days ago was the first day they had more deaths than the US had today.
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Exactly... our numbers have been very similar to theirs, which is incredible considering we have a population of 327.2 million and Italy has a population of 60.5 million. That’s 5 times more than them and our numbers are the same. Just by sheer population size, we should have considerably more total cases and total deaths than them.
 
KI4MVP said:
They are also a couple of weeks ahead of the US in the spread of the virus . 11 days ago was the first day they had more deaths than the US had today.
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Yea but their death toll as a percentage of those infected has been way, way higher almost the entire time. We're hovering around 1.7% mortality rate.

They're somewhere around 7-8%.
 
PA has effectively shut down as well, except for “life sustaining” industry. Likely a trend we’ll see continue, and obviously most effective if most or all other states follow suit
 
Rich said:
They really better hope this generates the type of changes they're hoping for in rather quick time. If not, people will absolutely just start to ignore these orders, and it won't take long.
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I agree. At some point we have to go back to work. There is not enough money or debt we can issue if goes to long. I think we have till the end if the month until you won’t be able to stop people without force.
 
Rich said:
They really better hope this generates the type of changes they're hoping for in rather quick time. If not, people will absolutely just start to ignore these orders, and it won't take long.
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I sure as hell hope that’s not the case. if people want to find themselves under Martial Law they can do it.

People just need to look at Italy and realize it’s not a joke.

Besides, are people going to go out to eat? Head to the movies?
 
cavsfan1985 said:
I agree. At some point we have to go back to work. There is not enough money or debt we can issue if goes to long. I think we have till the end if the month until you won’t be able to stop people without force.
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That would be catastrophic. Most things I've read show that even with optimal precautions taken right now, our infected and death rate is going to spike in about 3 weeks.
 
What are the economic impacts if over a million people die and are taken out of the economy? What if more than a million?
 
Bob_The_Cat said:
I sure as hell hope that’s not the case. if people want to find themselves under Martial Law they can do it.

People just need to look at Italy and realize it’s not a joke.

Besides, are people going to go out to eat? Head to the movies?
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Sure. They'll get their friends together and do both of those things. And go play ball at the court.

Eventually business owners will just all, in a type of collective action, get the keys and go open their shops and bars and dare the police to come and hall them all off to jail.

I made this argument a few days ago and I'm waiting for some economists to start pumping out some studies but a worldwide great depression would be awfully deadly too. And have the bonus effect of reducing the quality of life for everyone who lives by a substantial amount.
 
Szuch77 said:
Exactly... our numbers have been very similar to theirs, which is incredible considering we have a population of 327.2 million and Italy has a population of 60.5 million. That’s 5 times more than them and our numbers are the same. Just by sheer population size, we should have considerably more total cases and total deaths than them.
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It boggles my mind that people continue to use the number of confirmed cases as some sort of indicator for the number of total cases in the country.

This statistic correlates to testing. Until we can test more, we don't have any numbers that give us an idea of how many people are actually infected.

Probably the best indicator we have to estimate the total number of infected is the total number of deaths.
 
col63onel said:
What are the economic impacts if over a million people die and are taken out of the economy? What if more than a million?
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I mean there's a terribly dark and grim thought on that but I don't think it would be well received.
 
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