Coronavirus - Official Notifications Etc. PM Stannis with Official Updates for Posting

[Cavsfan1985]

What are the economic impacts if over a million people die and are taken out of the economy? What if more than a million?

What if it is less then a million, what if it is less then 100k? At what point do we live in fear and let the entire world around us collapse. I support what they are doing now to help slow it and give time to prepare and be ready, but look at the damage to encomomy in only 1 week of things starting to shut down. Imagin where we will be at in 2-3 week from now.

 

[Rich]

What if it is less then a million, what if it is less then 100k? At what point do we live in fear and let the entire world around us collapse. I support what they are doing now to help slow it and give time to prepare and be ready, but look at the damage to encomomy in only 1 week of things starting to shut down. Imagin where we will be at in 2-3 week from now.

This is the other thing they need to figure out, and fast. Very quickly go from winging it to having an actual, defined, plan. If you tell people to stay inside for a specific period of time, you'll have a better shot at making it happen. But if it's always some undefined, indefinite amount of time, that just makes people more anxious.

So, figure it out, or eventually society is just gonna go "alrighty, the vulnerable will fend for themselves and the rest of us will take our chances that we survive."

 

[Cavsfan1985]

It boggles my mind that people continue to use the number of confirmed cases as some sort of indicator for the number of total cases in the country.

This statistic correlates to testing. Until we can test more, we don't have any numbers that give us an idea of how many people are actually infected.

Probably the best indicator we have to estimate the total number of infected is the total number of deaths.

To me this is 100% the issue we have when trying to do any projections. We are hearing of cases where people have tested positive that have little to no symptoms. I don’t think we know how bad or good things are. There is a chance that this is closer to flu type of death rates. To be honest the way the media talks and the extreme measures we have taken, it feels like a virus that has death rates of 10%+ and could wipe out a huge part of the population.

 

[Jack Brickman]

To me this is 100% the issue we have when trying to do any projections. We are hearing of cases where people have tested positive that have little to no symptoms. I don’t think we know how bad or good things are. There is a chance that this is closer to flu type of death rates. To be honest the way the media talks and the extreme measures we have taken, it feels like a virus that has death rates of 10%+ and could wipe out a huge part of the population.

The issue is not the death rates but the fact that this apparently spreads so easily and is so potentially devastating among the elderly that it can quickly overwhelm hospitals if not kept in check. See: Italy. Comparing it to the flu is pointless because we know from experience that the flu doesn't threaten to overload the healthcare system like this clearly can and has.

 

[Rich]

Also wanna say I do have a bit of bias in this: I work a job that will not be shutdown and I work with a lot of people and a lot more who go through the door. I'm going to get this virus. In my mind, I'd much rather just get it sooner rather than later and get it over with. and it would be far easier for me to do that if I could still go to a restaurant and go to the gym etc. etc. I'm anxious to move on from it.

 

[Szuch77]

It boggles my mind that people continue to use the number of confirmed cases as some sort of indicator for the number of total cases in the country.

This statistic correlates to testing. Until we can test more, we don't have any numbers that give us an idea of how many people are actually infected.

Probably the best indicator we have to estimate the total number of infected is the total number of deaths.

And it boggles my mind how people can pick two words out of a long paragraph and respond to it like that’s what the whole thing was about. You’ve done that twice already. You skipped over the smoking percentages and age percentages, whiles harping on the proximity angle. Then here, you take the “total cases” and only focus on that. Fine, remove those words and let’s look at total death. Is that data point good enough for you?!?! Look at the diagram below... the US is clearly in a different trajectory as it relates to deaths than Italy, even though we have FIVE TIMES more people! I truly apologize that data and facts are getting in the way of your personal truth.

 

[MediumBaller]

I mean there's a terribly dark and grim thought on that but I don't think it would be well received.

It's very morbid, but the majority of the vulnerable people are those who are old and out of the workforce anyway.

Right now, we're essentially forcing tens of millions of Americans to sacrifice their jobs and livelihoods so the vulnerable won't die. Whether that's what we should be doing isn't a topic for this thread, but it's what we're doing. People might be willing to do it for a few weeks, but after a while they're going to stop. They'll see the bills piling up. They'll see the struggles their families will go through if they remain at home. They're not going to accept financial ruin for a virus that isn't a threat to them, and they will return to work.

I still don't understand why our focus is isolating the entire country instead of isolating those who are at risk.

 

[inliner311]

To me this is 100% the issue we have when trying to do any projections. We are hearing of cases where people have tested positive that have little to no symptoms. I don’t think we know how bad or good things are. There is a chance that this is closer to flu type of death rates. To be honest the way the media talks and the extreme measures we have taken, it feels like a virus that has death rates of 10%+ and could wipe out a huge part of the population.

I've posted this before. The problem we know right now is the hospitalization rate is so high and we are seeing that when hospitals get overwhelmed the death rate goes up.

Even if there are a high amount of asymptomatic people we already know from Wuhan and Italy that this virus can spread to the point where it will overwhelmed the current system hospitals have in place. Asymptomatic people don't change that part of the equation. Only the ability to test everyone will find asymptomatic people and drop the infection rate.

They need time to figure out a way to drive down the hospitalization rate and hopefully that will also drive down the death rate. Drugs trials and faster more widely available tests will hopefully do that. They need a rapid test for every doctors office or a quick home test.

The US should also be trying to make an antibody test like the UK so they can find the real infection rate.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

And it boggles my mind how people can pick two words out of a long paragraph and respond to it like that’s what the whole thing was about. You’ve done that twice already. You skipped over the smoking percentages and age percentages, whiles harping on the proximity angle. Then here, you take the “total cases” and only focus on that. Fine, remove those words and let’s look at total death. Is that data point good enough for you?!?! Look at the diagram below... the US is clearly in a different trajectory as it relates to deaths than Italy, even though we have FIVE TIMES more people! I truly apologize that data and facts are getting in the way of your personal truth.

View attachment 3005

I've never once argued that the USA and Italy are on the same trajectory. I have no idea what you're going on about, or why you're taking such a hostile tone with this response.

What "personal truth" are you inferring that I hold?

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Right now, we're essentially forcing tens of millions of Americans to sacrifice their jobs and livelihoods so the vulnerable won't die.

If there were no systemic problems, your point would hold true.

But, there are systemic problems. If you let the virus grow out of control at an exponential rate, plenty of people who aren't in the categories you described would die.

Currently, young adults make up 40% of all hospitalized cases in the US (link). What happens to those people if you let the virus run free and we run out of hospital beds and health care workers?

What happens to everyone going about their daily lives and requiring medical care for something outside of COVID-19?

 

[Rich]

Goldman Sachs predicting over 2 million unemployment claims, up from over 200,000 by NEXT WEEK.

Just 10x more in a week. That's all.

I mean there's overwhelming the system. The govt. won't even come halfway close to being able to process those in any sort of reasonable amount of time.

The fuck they gonna do when it's over 10 million?

These chloroqourine tests need to be on the fastest fast track the US government has. I mean every corner needs to be cut. Let's move it.

 

[MediumBaller]

If there were no systemic problems, your point would hold true.

But, there are systemic problems. If you let the virus grow out of control at an exponential rate, plenty of people who aren't in the categories you described would die.

Currently, young adults make up 40% of all hospitalized cases in the US (link). What happens to those people if you let the virus run free and we run out of hospital beds and health care workers?

What happens to everyone going about their daily lives and requiring medical care for something outside of COVID-19?

There are no good answers to a situation like this. But we can't just keep the country shut down for months. It would cause so much more damage to people than the coronavirus.

I can only speak to my own situation, but I'm one of the many students who are now doing online classes. I have a little more than a month and a half left in my semester. If I have to isolate in my apartment for the rest of the semester then fine, I'll do it. It'll be boring as hell, but oh well. But there are millions of people who simply cannot do that for the next month and a half. With more than half of the country living paycheck to paycheck, not working for the next 8 weeks would be disastrous. At some point the government has to make a decision, because asking folks to just keep doing this indefinitely isn't going to work.

 

[inliner311]

Goldman Sachs predicting over 2 million unemployment claims, up from over 200,000 by NEXT WEEK.

Just 10x more in a week. That's all.

I mean there's overwhelming the system. The govt. won't even come halfway close to being able to process those in any sort of reasonable amount of time.

The fuck they gonna do when it's over 10 million?

These chloroqourine tests need to be on the fastest fast track the US government has. I mean every corner needs to be cut. Let's move it.

I posted something similar yesterday and it goes on the lines of your unemployment being overwhelmed.

Clinical trials need resources to run tests and conduct the trial. If we don't flatten the curve, clinical trials won't happen to the extent they need to happen to figure this out. They need doctors and nurses to sign people up and they need the resources to test to come up with proper data. When hospitals get overwhelmed doctors will give anything to a patient to save their life. They don't need the just most sick to do these drug trials, they need a wide array of patients. They need the ability to sign patients with mild symptoms to see if they can slow the spread, severity, and duration.

Right now I doubt they are giving Chloroquine to less risky groups to see if they can drop the duration of their symptoms. They aren't even testing those less risky groups right now in alot of places. We have no clue how much Chloroquine or any other drug that might be helpful is in stocked and how long it will last. They are probably prioritizing it for high risk groups just like the tests.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

There are no good answers to a situation like this. But we can't just keep the country shut down for months. It would cause so much more damage to people than the coronavirus.

I can only speak to my own situation, but I'm one of the many students who are now doing online classes. I have a little more than a month and a half left in my semester. If I have to isolate in my apartment for the rest of the semester then fine, I'll do it. It'll be boring as hell, but oh well. But there are millions of people who simply cannot do that for the next month and a half. With more than half of the country living paycheck to paycheck, not working for the next 8 weeks would be disastrous. At some point the government has to make a decision, because asking folks to just keep doing this indefinitely isn't going to work.

You have to take it minute by minute and make the best decisions based on the available information.

At this point, we don't know that we're going to be asking people to take extreme measures for months at a time. But, if we were to do so, then it's on us as a community (all levels of government included in the collective "us") to figure out what the best course of action is.

It sucks to hear. It can be scary not having a plan. But, at this point we just don't know enough to formulate a concrete plan that far out. We have to act on what we have in front of us. Ramp up testing. If possible, scale up production of everything under the sun that can protect our health care workers and give them a safer working environment. Make a global, concerted push towards any and all avenues that can help humanity move past this pandemic. Research that's open and shared, quick, effective communication and decisions.

Sorry if this is coming across as ra-ra cheerleader drivel, but there's so much that we are currently doing, and everything we do, as well as everything we learn about this pandemic, will shape the decisions we make moving forward. At least I can say that if I had to live through a global crisis in my lifetime, I'll choose this over a World War.

 

[KI4MVP]

And it boggles my mind how people can pick two words out of a long paragraph and respond to it like that’s what the whole thing was about. You’ve done that twice already. You skipped over the smoking percentages and age percentages, whiles harping on the proximity angle. Then here, you take the “total cases” and only focus on that. Fine, remove those words and let’s look at total death. Is that data point good enough for you?!?! Look at the diagram below... the US is clearly in a different trajectory as it relates to deaths than Italy, even though we have FIVE TIMES more people! I truly apologize that data and facts are getting in the way of your personal truth.

View attachment 3005

Odd criteria for that graph.

Countries have vastly different populations

China did the equivalent of containing it to one state by installing physical barriers so people couldn't travel out of Wuhan.

US had a large number of cases/deaths in nursing home before it really started to spread to the rest of the country