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From the same guys who are predicting we need to be in complete shutdown for 18 months? Can we at least see the study the California Govt. is basing this on?

yes, 56% seems highly unlikely. While it's spreading quickly, not everyone who is exposed to it gets infected. Spanish flu infected 28% of the country. They're estimating 2x that number.
 
If this is already as widespread as is being claimed, then everyone who already has it and survives should be able to return to normal activities within a few weeks.
 
It's very morbid, but the majority of the vulnerable people are those who are old and out of the workforce anyway.

Right now, we're essentially forcing tens of millions of Americans to sacrifice their jobs and livelihoods so the vulnerable won't die. Whether that's what we should be doing isn't a topic for this thread, but it's what we're doing. People might be willing to do it for a few weeks, but after a while they're going to stop. They'll see the bills piling up. They'll see the struggles their families will go through if they remain at home. They're not going to accept financial ruin for a virus that isn't a threat to them, and they will return to work.

I still don't understand why our focus is isolating the entire country instead of isolating those who are at risk.

This isn't just elderly retired people - there are millions of immunocompromised people who are also high risk and of all ages.
 
If this is already as widespread as is being claimed, then everyone who already has it and survives should be able to return to normal activities within a few weeks.

The problem is until we have widespread testing for the virus and for antibodies, we have no idea who’s had it, who’s never had it, and who’s carrying it and is asymptomatic.

Without the proper testing, we’re asking for a new wave of infections.
 
The problem is until we have widespread testing for the virus and for antibodies, we have no idea who’s had it, who’s never had it, and who’s carrying it and is asymptomatic.

Without the proper testing, we’re asking for a new wave of infections.

I agree. That's why I've been saying all along that it is effective and accessible testing, more so than anything else, that could permit a return to normalcy in the next few months.
 
I agree. That's why I've been saying all along that it is effective and accessible testing, more so than anything else, that could permit a return to normalcy in the next few months.
It seems we haven't gained much ground on the tests. We might eventually need one per citizen since many don't show symptoms
 
There are no good answers to a situation like this. But we can't just keep the country shut down for months. It would cause so much more damage to people than the coronavirus.

I can only speak to my own situation, but I'm one of the many students who are now doing online classes. I have a little more than a month and a half left in my semester. If I have to isolate in my apartment for the rest of the semester then fine, I'll do it. It'll be boring as hell, but oh well. But there are millions of people who simply cannot do that for the next month and a half. With more than half of the country living paycheck to paycheck, not working for the next 8 weeks would be disastrous. At some point the government has to make a decision, because asking folks to just keep doing this indefinitely isn't going to work.

For real. I can hardly imagine life continuing like this for one more month. It seems unfathomable that this could continue through the summer.
 
WARNING: Very uncomfortable and perhaps morbid video of an Italian hospital right now. This is what outbreak looks like, and what we're trying to avoid:


Don't click that link it contains a virus. Got Corona watching it.

In all seriousness, this is better than in Spain. I think that's normal for Europe as we are limited with resources, beds and space. I think it looks worse than it really is.
I do wonder why Italians are dying like flies right now.. it's a total mystery to me.

Edit: My bad, did not watch till the end..for some reason I only saw the first part. This is terrible. I did not visit the Hospitals in Spain during the pandemic, nor do I have any access to such footage; but I know that we do not have the means or resources to handle such things, and on paper I believe our health system is not much better.
 
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What if it is less then a million, what if it is less then 100k? At what point do we live in fear and let the entire world around us collapse. I support what they are doing now to help slow it and give time to prepare and be ready, but look at the damage to encomomy in only 1 week of things starting to shut down. Imagin where we will be at in 2-3 week from now.
And imagine if we return to normal too quickly. If everybody gets sick, we lose millions to the virus, plus how many others because our hospitals are overrun? How many children, who otherwise would’ve been fine, suffer because they start using pediatric hospitals to treat adults with covid? The virus could hurt the economy just as much as shutdowns, with the added bonus of killing millions.

unfortunately, we’re behind the ball on testing. Until that changes, too many risks.
 
And imagine if we return to normal too quickly. If everybody gets sick, we lose millions to the virus, plus how many others because our hospitals are overrun? How many children, who otherwise would’ve been fine, suffer because they start using pediatric hospitals to treat adults with covid? The virus could hurt the economy just as much as shutdowns, with the added bonus of killing millions.

unfortunately, we’re behind the ball on testing. Until that changes, too many risks.
Your right it is a risk. What you have to weigh though is worst case like you are describing above vs. beat case, and somewhere in the middle. What about looking at worst case economical chances, what if this puts us in a worst spot then the Great Depression. The answer is not just to stop living, but how do we control this and get back to even 80% of normal life.
 
Your right it is a risk. What you have to weigh though is worst case like you are describing above vs. beat case, and somewhere in the middle. What about looking at worst case economical chances, what if this puts us in a worst spot then the Great Depression. The answer is not just to stop living, but how do we control this and get back to even 80% of normal life.
I 100% agree. And the best way to that is flattening the curve. If our hospitals get overrun, then we’ve reached worst case scenario, and we’re gonna look like Italy, and everything, including the economy, which a screwed. If we had more testing, we could flatten the curve quicker.
 
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