Derek
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I understand his normally mediocre at best defense became atrocious this year, but since when does anybody care about defense for the AS game?
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Collin Sexton | The Young Bull
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My gut is that Sexton’s defense does not really get anywhere close to league average. He’s not a dumb defender. I.E., he knows where to be, but his size is a problem, especially when you play him with Garland.
I do believe that Sexton is going to improve his scoring efficiency, continuing the trend from this season. As a scorer, Sexton is going to be a problem because he will be a very efficient player that will torch teams on switches.
The area I see that is the biggest question mark is Sexton’s intuition of offense. He is currently pretty mediocre at this (which, ironically, goes to show just how elite his 1v1 scoring is). If Sexton can learn to know where the opposing players are on the court, he will be able to compensate for poor vision. Also, if he learns to play off-ball, that will create switching nightmares for opponents.
So, to me, his ceiling is an elite scorer who uses off-ball movement to make his teammates better, that can be a secondary facilitator, while also being a slightly below average defender for a point guard. Maybe a Chauncey Billups between 2003-08 level player?
I think the most likely outcome is somewhere between an Eric Gordon and Jason Terry. Basically, a guy that comes off the bench, but regardless of his limitations, always will Play significant minutes because he is unguardable.
I do believe that Sexton is going to improve his scoring efficiency, continuing the trend from this season. As a scorer, Sexton is going to be a problem because he will be a very efficient player that will torch teams on switches.
The area I see that is the biggest question mark is Sexton’s intuition of offense. He is currently pretty mediocre at this (which, ironically, goes to show just how elite his 1v1 scoring is). If Sexton can learn to know where the opposing players are on the court, he will be able to compensate for poor vision. Also, if he learns to play off-ball, that will create switching nightmares for opponents.
So, to me, his ceiling is an elite scorer who uses off-ball movement to make his teammates better, that can be a secondary facilitator, while also being a slightly below average defender for a point guard. Maybe a Chauncey Billups between 2003-08 level player?
I think the most likely outcome is somewhere between an Eric Gordon and Jason Terry. Basically, a guy that comes off the bench, but regardless of his limitations, always will Play significant minutes because he is unguardable.
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I understand his normally mediocre at best defense became atrocious this year, but since when does anybody care about defense for the AS game?
Right. And it's not like Young is the Glove or anything....
But maybe Beal's clear step back in defense pissed off the writers enough that they abandoned him.
Derek
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Oh yeah, compared to Trae Young, Beal looks like Tony Allen
Derek
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I think Sexton would really thrive on a team that has a legitimate point-forward like LeBron, Ben Simmons, Giannis, or Jokic. Somebody else to be the primary playmaker, but allows Sexton to guard smaller players.
Henry Tuttle
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Guards that averaged over 20ppg in their 2nd season since 2000 (ordered by FG%)
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Cavatt
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Everyone was talking about Trae and Doncic, but they draw fouls at such a high rate. Collin gets mugged all the time. If he can gain the respect of the refs, he will be right there with them.
Derek
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Ordered by FG%
Henry Tuttle
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Ordered by FG%
I love stats and understand the preference for advanced-ish stats, but honestly I still really like FG%. There is a ton of room for Collin to alter his shot selection to bump his TS%, but the kid puts the ball in the bucket when he shoots it and I think that's worth noting.
Derek
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I just don't think FG% actually tells you much at all. It provides no context.
Looking at 2P% and 3P% is good, but you still don't know the shot dispersion, which eFG% accounts for.
Being able to get to the line is also a valuable skill, so that's where TS% comes in.
If I were to rank them by usefulness:
1. TS% or eFG% depending on what you want to know
2. Looking at 2P% and 3P% individually
3. FG%
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Lonzo?
Derek
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In a vacuum, he fits the mold because he could guard the 2's, but in the context of this team, I'd worry about pushing KPJ over to a bigger player then.
Cavatt
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The difference between Collin and Trae and Doncic in TS%area is they get calls and he doesn't.
Still if you do it by TS% You got
Lillard
Doncic and
Dwade( just barely ahead of him)
Not bad at all.
I don't like TS% that much because I think FT's are too heavily weighted. It can just take an inefficient guy and make him look efficient when he jump into dudes shooting like Trae does. I like watching Trae pass, but his foul drawing game is gross like Harden's. High TS% because of ft's is also a great indicator of a guy who will be eaten alive in the playoffs. It also produces moments like that pathetic last attempt by Harden against the Warriors where he tried to jump into Klay at the 3pt line to draw a foul to win the game. It just sucks.
Corey Maggette had .562 TS% at 21 with 48.3% from 2 and 30% from 3. Man that just sucks.
Derek
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You might not like it, but drawing fouls is a repeatable skill. TS% is basically a PPP measure. They (Maggette type guys) ARE efficient, you just don't like their style. That's fair, but, it's more of a "don't hate the player, hate the game type thing".
I wasn't dissing FG% because it was propping Collin up. I was dissing it because it's not a very useful stat.
He'd actually be third in eFG% behind just Luka and Trae. Luka's game inside the arc is astonishingly good.
I think TS% is the best measure of scoring efficiency while eFG% is the best measure of shotmaking.
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Snowblind
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Just curious, since I never ended up keeping up with advanced stats.. what exactly is average for those stats? Would be nice to look at these and immediately know if someone is at least average in TS or eFG.