2020 NBA Draft

narbar32 · Sep 2, 2020

Nathan S said:
He's a guy who's both low minutes and weak strength of schedule, so I definitely wouldn't take that rating at face value. But at the same time, yeah, I totally agree that it makes a whole lot more sense to swing for the fences than to play it safe. Youngest guy in the draft, too.

Just watching him move around on the basketball court, grabbing a board and going coast to coast or shooting (albeit probably also missing) a quick step back three, it's so easy to envision him being the guy from this draft that everybody should've known would be great. It's equally easy to envision him getting bullied and swiped and swatted right out of the league in just a couple years.

Los216 · Sep 2, 2020

There's no way that Toppin is going top 5.

These guys are a lock for the top 5

Edwards
Ball
Wiseman
Deni

There's no way that Ball or Edwards even fall to 5 and if Wiseman or Deni 5 to 5 The Cavs are turning the card in.

I'mWithDan · Sep 2, 2020

Los216 said:
There's no way that Ball or Edwards even fall to 5 and if Wiseman or Deni 5 to 5 The Cavs are turning the card in.

I think it is entirely dependent on teams' view of Okongwu.

If teams in the top 4 like him, it pushes one of the 4 guys mentioned above to 5.

Currently, Okongwu is an aggregate #4 guy. If the Cavs aren't interested in drafting him, then the hope should be that the Warriors, Hornets or Bulls do.

Los216 · Sep 2, 2020

I'mWithDan said:
I think it is entirely dependent on teams' view of Okongwu.

If teams in the top 4 like him, it pushes one of the 4 guys mentioned above to 5.

Currently, Okongwu is an aggregate #4 guy. If the Cavs aren't interested in drafting him, then the hope should be that the Warriors, Hornets or Bulls do.

Okongwu is not a player that any team in this lottery is gonna trade up into the top 5 to get. Edwards and ball are which is why there's no way that they will make it to 5.

Nathan S · Sep 2, 2020

I'd be pretty surprised if any of Ball/Edwards/Wiseman are still there at #5. I see a big gap between those 3 and the next tier of Okongwu/Toppin/Avdija/Haliburton/Hayes/Okoro/Vassell, where every pundit seems to have their own opinion on which of those 7 guys will claim the remaining two spots in the top-5.

I'mWithDan · Sep 2, 2020

Nathan S said:
I'd be pretty surprised if any of Ball/Edwards/Wiseman are still there at #5. I see a big gap between those 3 and the next tier of Okongwu/Toppin/Avdija/Haliburton/Hayes/Okoro/Vassell, where every pundit seems to have their own opinion on which of those 7 guys will claim the remaining two spots in the top-5.

To me, Wiseman is the guy who can slide with bad workouts.

I also think Hayes is potentially a wild card. He looks to have the widest range, from what I see. There are some teams who love him......and he seems like a fit for both Charlotte / Chicago......if he sneaks in to the top 5, I could see this at least being plausible:

1- MIN - Ball
2- GSW - Edwards
3- CHA - Hayes
4 -CHI - Deni

Wiseman would strike me as most likely to be there, relative to the place centers have in the modern NBA and the question marks surrounding him.......but I do agree permutations of the top 4 seem to, a vast, vast majority of the time, include Wiseman, Ball and Edwards being mainstays.

I'mWithDan · Sep 2, 2020

Los216 said:
Okongwu is not a player that any team in this lottery is gonna trade up into the top 5 to get. Edwards and ball are which is why there's no way that they will make it to 5.

I wasn't speaking to trading up. There is some smoke that Charlotte likes him. If the Hornets actually do, the path to one of those players being available is likely either Okongwu or Hayes sneaking in to the top 4.

Nathan S · Sep 2, 2020

I'mWithDan said:
To me, Wiseman is the guy who can slide with bad workouts.

I also think Hayes is potentially a wild card. He looks to have the widest range, from what I see. There are some teams who love him......and he seems like a fit for both Charlotte / Chicago......if he sneaks in to the top 5, I could see this at least being plausible:

1- MIN - Ball
2- GSW - Edwards
3- CHA - Hayes
4 -CHI - Deni

Wiseman would strike me as most likely to be there, relative to the place centers have in the modern NBA and the question marks surrounding him.......but I do agree permutations of the top 4 seem to, a vast, vast majority of the time, include Wiseman, Ball and Edwards being mainstays.

Yeah, I guess it makes a little more sense to talk in terms of permutations of the top-5. Ball/Edwards/Wiseman are definitely there unless something freaky happens. But who are the remaining two? And do either or both of them nudge ahead of Ball/Edwards/Wiseman?

I agree that Wiseman is the most likely to slip out of the top 3, but can also see it happening to Ball or Edwards. Ball's a weird dude, and may scare some teams in interviews. Edwards I can imagine shooting bricks in a workout, which is an issue because 90% of his value hinges on him being a 3-level scorer. But we'll see.

I'mWithDan · Sep 2, 2020

Nathan S said:
Yeah, I guess it makes a little more sense to talk in terms of permutations of the top-5. Ball/Edwards/Wiseman are definitely there unless something freaky happens. But who are the remaining two? And do either or both of them nudge ahead of Ball/Edwards/Wiseman?

I agree that Wiseman is the most likely to slip out of the top 3, but can also see it happening to Ball or Edwards. Ball's a weird dude, and may scare some teams in interviews. Edwards I can imagine shooting bricks in a workout, which is an issue because 90% of his value hinges on him being a 3-level scorer. But we'll see.

The only guy I have good personal intel on is Edwards.........and if there is a way to bet my house on him being a top 4 pick, I would. :chuckle:

From what I understand, it is possible he doesn't even work out for anyone but GSW and MIN.

Nathan S · Sep 2, 2020

I'mWithDan said:
The only guy I have good personal intel on is Edwards.........and if there is a way to bet my house on him being a top 4 pick, I would. From what I understand, it is possible he doesn't even work out for anyone but GSW and MIN.

Kind of crazy, considering his quality of play, but I don't have to tell you that. Not at all heartbroken that the Cavs won't draft him.

Vipra · Sep 2, 2020

After all the discussions in all these forums and, presumably, in the actual front offices, the draft is still a gamble.
Yes, on certain years there is a clear #1 choice (or even a #2 or #3). But other than for those years, and for pick# 4 onwards even in those years, it's anybody's guess.

This is a look at the draft picks by their career VoRP by the year of draft. I kept only the top career VoRP for each year. Like: the top five players from the 2011 draft by career VoRP turned out to be #15 (Kawhi), #30 (Butler), #1 (Kyrie), #9 (Kemba), and #16 (Vucevic).

Year	Draft Pick by VoRP
2010	10	1	5	9	18
2011	15	30	1	9	16
2012	1	6	35	3	9
2013	15	27	10	2	3
2014	41	3	25	30	45
2015	1	32	11	27	4
2016	1	27	6	11	36
2017	13	3	14	22	19
2018	3	5	36	11	1
2019	21	2	20	1	11

You are more likely to find a future all-star at #27 than at #2. The chance of #11 pick to become an excellent player seems better than any other pick save #1 and #3.

Nathan S · Sep 2, 2020

Vipra said:
After all the discussions in all these forums and, presumably, in the actual front offices, the draft is still a gamble.
Yes, on certain years there is a clear #1 choice (or even a #2 or #3). But other than for those years, and for pick# 4 onwards even in those years, it's anybody's guess.

This is a look at the draft picks by their career VoRP by the year of draft. I kept only the top career VoRP for each year. Like: the top five players from the 2011 draft by career VoRP turned out to be #15 (Kawhi), #30 (Butler), #1 (Kyrie), #9 (Kemba), and #16 (Vucevic).

Year Draft Pick by VoRP
2010
10
1
5
9
18
2011
15
30
1
9
16
2012
1
6
35
3
9
2013
15
27
10
2
3
2014
41
3
25
30
45
2015
1
32
11
27
4
2016
1
27
6
11
36
2017
13
3
14
22
19
2018
3
5
36
11
1
2019
21
2
20
1
11

You are more likely to find a future all-star at #27 than at #2. The chance of #11 pick to become an excellent player seems better than any other pick save #1 and #3.

Towns and LeBron are the only #1 picks in the last 20 years who look like they'll go down as the clear best players in their classes (with Dwight/Iguodala, AD/Lillard, Simmons/Siakam all too close to call). Pretty crazy. People complain about the randomness of the draft lottery, but it's peanuts compared to the randomness of the draft itself.

I'mWithDan · Sep 2, 2020

Nathan S said:
Towns and LeBron are the only #1 picks in the last 20 years who look like they'll go down as the clear best players in their classes (with Dwight/Iguodala, AD/Lillard, Simmons/Siakam all too close to call). Pretty crazy. People complain about the randomness of the draft lottery, but it's peanuts compared to the randomness of the draft itself.

I was blanking that Kawhi was in Kyrie's draft.

A #1 overall pick with career averages of 22/6/4 on 47/39/88 shooting splits and great advanced metrics was not even the best player.

2011 was such an amazing class looking back. Kyrie, Kawhi, Kemba, Klay, Jimmy B, Vuc, IT, Tobias Harris, Jonas, Parsons........ 10 guys who are 10+ VORP players for their careers, which is just incredible, given only 9 years of service for those guys....and it's possible the top 5 guys are all HOF players.

Vipra · Sep 2, 2020

Just for the sake of it, here is another look at past 15 years' draft.

#1 and #3 picks stand out. Other positions where 5 or more good picks were taken: 2, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 6, 21. And as many as 3 times the #45 pick has turned out to be great!

Year	Rank-1	Rank-2	Rank-3	Rank-4	Rank-5	Rank-6	Rank-7	Rank-8	Rank-9	Rank-10	Rank-11	Rank-12	Rank-13	Rank-14	Rank-15
2005	4	3	45	30	17	1	57	40	2	56	5	10	36	21	8
2006	24	2	47	21	8	6	11	13	14
2007	2	48	3	4	9	12	22
2008	4	5	25	35	10	6	26	1	45	24	21	7	9
2009	3	7	1	17	46	9	19	18	21	4	5	10	16	42	55
2010	10	1	5	9	18	7	33	3
2011	15	30	1	9	16	60	11	19	38	5	24
2012	1	6	35	3	9	39	34
2013	15	27	10	2	3	22	12
2014	41	3	25	30	45	4	6
2015	1	32	11	27	4	2	20	13
2016	1	27	6	11	36	7
2017	13	3	14	22	19	2
2018	3	5	36	11	1	4	10	17	27	34	14
2019	21	2	20	1	11	8	29	12	13

Good Pick: VoRP Cut-off is 8.0 for 2013 and before, 5.0 for 2014-16. I used my own judgement for 2017+

And here is a more compact view of the above:

Pick # (From)	Pick# (To)	# of Good Pick	Prob %
1	3	26	19%
4	10	37	27%
11	20	30	22%
21	30	22	16%
31	40	12	9%
41	50	8	6%
51	60	4	3%

So now, out of nowhere, may I propose the name of Aaron Nesmith as the #5 pick?

cabs · Sep 3, 2020

Hornets are terrible at drafting, so we have pick 4

2020 NBA Draft

narbar32

Logjammin'

Los216

Hall-of-Famer

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"

Los216

Hall-of-Famer

Nathan S

33 is the new 23

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"

Nathan S

33 is the new 23

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"

Nathan S

33 is the new 23

Vipra

Situational Stopper

Nathan S

33 is the new 23

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"

Vipra

Situational Stopper

cabs

All-Star

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