Future Roster - Trade Needs

W/R Lindor Trade.. it appears that the "sellers market" is going to be so prevalent, that Lindor may NOT be traded.. at all during the 2020/2021 off season. What the Indians need at this juncture w/r to their talent feed.. are lots and lots of 17 to 19 "younger guys".. guys that are at the start of their professional careers.. The high A guys and above "wave of youngsters" is packed full with talent.. It would not surprise anyone to see the CleFO wait until the trading deadline of 2021 to move Lindor, if at all.. The compensation pick for Lindor, if not traded, is worth a helluva more to the Indians than some partial & insulting return..

The only things that will change this is Lindor decides that, in his best interest, signing a long term extension partially on Cleveland's terms are in his best interest or the cost for Lindor's 2021 season through arbitration III is prohibitive..

Thoughts?

Gson said:

W/R Lindor Trade.. it appears that the "sellers market" is going to be so prevalent, that Lindor may NOT be traded.. at all during the 2020/2021 off season. What the Indians need at this juncture w/r to their talent feed.. are lots and lots of 17 to 19 "younger guys".. guys that are at the start of their professional careers.. The high A guys and above "wave of youngsters" is packed full with talent.. It would not surprise anyone to see the CleFO wait until the trading deadline of 2021 to move Lindor, if at all.. The compensation pick for Lindor, if not traded, is worth a helluva more to the Indians than some partial & insulting return..

The only things that will change this is Lindor decides that, in his best interest, signing a long term extension partially on Cleveland's terms are in his best interest or the cost for Lindor's 2021 season through arbitration III is prohibitive..

Thoughts?

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I have a hunch Lindor wouldnt mind staying in Cleveland but knows his worth and he will maks way more leaving. Money wise the best thing for him is the move on from Cleveland.

Now we dont know how this new bargaining agreement, minority ownership and new TV deal within likely the next few years will all play out. If there is no minority owner for next season, we cannot keep Lindor based off of payroll numbers and I dont actually expect as big of haul as some are thinking, but we should still get some solid talent back.

My guess right now is Lindor is traded and Hand, Santana's option arent taken either, cutting 40-50 mil from the payroll. Guys like Hand and Santana are both going to be offered a lower contract and Hernandez may be offer a short term contract as well.

Because of the covid 2020 revenue loss, the Indians have to cut somewhere and Lindor with his projected 20+ mil, Santana's 17.5 (now we have Naylor to fill in 1B as well). Then Hands 10 mil, it makes sense to cut quickly from there and bring back up the cap with replacements. We need to get Hand or O. Perez back in 21 (need that veteran lefty). Then either Hernandez or another veteran INF (preferably plays SS not 2B in my mind) could be brought into the club, to mix in with the Freemans, Jones, Clement, Miller and Chang gang all competing for a couple INF spots. Sounds like though JRam should stay at 3B.

Speaking of how and why trades are made,,,,,

I'm presently reading a very interesting book called Future Value by Longenhagen and McDaniel. It's a book about scouting and ranking prospects. It's a very comprehensive and informative book.
Here is an excerpt about some Indians trades.

"In anticipation of losing big leagers to free agency and with knowledge that ownership was not inclined to patch those holes with big contracts for proven hitters, the Cleveland Indians were willing to part with several interesting, very young prospects, for players who had lower ceilings, but were ready to help the big league club immediately. They traded beastly teenage OF Jhon Torres to St. Louis for perfectly fine starting CF Oscar Mercado, and converted pitcher Tahnaj Thomas to Pittsburgh for power hitting platoon OF Jordan Luplow. Both Luplow and Mercado contributed to Cleveland's wild card push the following year. Meanwhile. Torres was sent to full season ball very quickly, flopped, then raked when he was sent down to a level that was more age-appropriate. Thomas's stuff exploded and he was touching 101 with his fastball during the summer. Cleveland got what they needed but gave up two potential impact talents."

Just throwing it out there. Let's say the Indians knew that they could somehow scratch together enough spare change to sign Lindor.

Would you actually use it on Frankie? Or perhaps use it to re-sign Bieber? Between the two of them, if I can only keep one, it's gonna be Bieber.

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

Just throwing it out there. Let's say the Indians knew that they could somehow scratch together enough spare change to sign Lindor.

Would you actually use it on Frankie? Or perhaps use it to re-sign Bieber? Between the two of them, if I can only keep one, it's gonna be Bieber.

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Lindor will be too expensive, Bieber probably would not sign beyond when he would leave for free agency. That said, I would try to sign Bieber to a contract that goes until he would be a free agent, paying him more now, and less later, to help control costs.

Gson said:

There will also be one or two (depending on if this is for the 2021 & 2022 season included in this projection) drafts and international signing events.. The Indians have made it a point to draft by premium position and pitching w/ BPA in those spots as their priority. (they also seem to draft a C as rule each draft) In the next draft, more than 2 of 5 of the BPA's will be outfielders.. (like Fabian, Bishop McClain, Reed Cowser Lawler and Wilson for 2021 as an example) Look for the Indians to draft pitching and outfielders or guys who can become outfielders with their top picks.. The 2021 draft will not be this 5 round "sawed off" version. There will be a minimum of 20 rounds..

Adding two to four top/Blue chip talents to our already deep farm system..is only going to make the Indians that much more relevant to the competitiveness of the club..

Btw..Guys like Vargas, Espino, Burns and Torres are more likely to become RP's because of their talent level, health/durability and or stuff this log jam.. The returns for guys like Lindor and/or Ramirez..aside..

Thoughts?

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I think you're spot on here Gson. I also agree that those pitchers you mentioned are likely to end up in the BP, but I'm one that prefers to see them fail as SP before pigeon holing them into a certain role. The talent and depth are going to make it tough on guys trying to break through IMO.

Gson said:

W/R Lindor Trade.. it appears that the "sellers market" is going to be so prevalent, that Lindor may NOT be traded.. at all during the 2020/2021 off season. What the Indians need at this juncture w/r to their talent feed.. are lots and lots of 17 to 19 "younger guys".. guys that are at the start of their professional careers.. The high A guys and above "wave of youngsters" is packed full with talent.. It would not surprise anyone to see the CleFO wait until the trading deadline of 2021 to move Lindor, if at all.. The compensation pick for Lindor, if not traded, is worth a helluva more to the Indians than some partial & insulting return..

The only things that will change this is Lindor decides that, in his best interest, signing a long term extension partially on Cleveland's terms are in his best interest or the cost for Lindor's 2021 season through arbitration III is prohibitive..

Thoughts?

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This may be true for good players, but Lindor is a top 3-5 player. The market will remain strong for guys like him and JRam.

I just can't see a situation where Lindor signs a long term contract with the Indians without accepting an offer well below his market value. On the flip side of that, I also don't believe that the Indians would want to tie such a significant amount of their limited resources up in one contract for that many seasons. I could see JRam signing an extension long before Lindor, but even then, that will likely be determined by the performance(s) of younger, less expensive players like Jones.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

Yep, the future looks bright as there are multiple candidates at every position not to mention another haul coming from the Lindor trade. I agree that the timing of the Ramirez trade will depend on the development of Jones or somebody else that gets moved to third base.

We need to have a minor league season next year to give Jones a chance to be finished off.

What happened to Carrasco? He'll still be under contract and I don't know if he's tradable at his age and salary. I'm thinking he'll go back to the bullpen as soon as the next young starter emerges. I notice you also have Cimber leaving, probably as a sweetener in a trade. Naquin will be in his third year of arbitration in 2021 and be 31. I assume you have him leaving as well.

The only concern I have is that we don't develop any star players. Some of these guys may turn into the next Jake Bauers, Bradley Zimmer, or Greg Allen. But there are so many good prospects we have to assume by the law of averages that some quality players will emerge. But we only have one top 100 guy (Jones) and some franchises have 3 or 4.

In the Lindor and Ramirez trades I would attempt to get more quality and less quantity. We have enough quantity already.

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Wham, my lineup list was referring to the 2023 season in response to Mott. Sorry I wasn't clear in that respect.

I have absolutely no use for Cimber now much less in following seasons.

This system has developed Lindor, Ramirez, Bieber, and a host of others. Which top 100 list are you referring to? MLB pipeline favors the big market clubs so much that I have little regard for their list other than to see who is in what organization and statistics. They are biased and f'n horrible IMO. If Jones was in the Yankees organization he would be in the top 20.

I absolutely agree with the idea of targeting quality over quantity. I think that should be the goal for every trade. There is plenty of fodder out there to fill the gaps.

I don't see the Indians waiting until the trade deadline to trade Lindor. One, they would have to pay him about $10 million for the first half of the season and this year they suffered "extraordinary" losses if you believe what they said. Two, they could get more trading him in the off-season with two full years remaining.

I get that there will be many sellers and few buyers but all it takes is one team.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

I don't see the Indians waiting until the trade deadline to trade Lindor. One, they would have to pay him about $10 million for the first half of the season and this year they suffered "extraordinary" losses if you believe what they said. Two, they could get more trading him in the off-season with two full years remaining.

I get that there will be many sellers and few buyers but all it takes is one team.

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I think they hold him until they get an offer they feel comfortable moving him for.

There's no reason to rush. We're a contender and he brings on-field value to us.

You're right that, theoretically, a team should be willing to pay more during the offseason than they would at the deadline. But that's not always what happens.

I think there's a chance we don't even trade him or re-sign him. There's a chance all we get from him is the championship run next year, and that's okay. It might not be optimal for this singular situation, but there's a lot of good that comes from that scenario as well.

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

I think they hold him until they get an offer they feel comfortable moving him for.

There's no reason to rush. We're a contender and he brings on-field value to us.

You're right that, theoretically, a team should be willing to pay more during the offseason than they would at the deadline. But that's not always what happens.

I think there's a chance we don't even trade him or re-sign him. There's a chance all we get from him is the championship run next year, and that's okay. It might not be optimal for this singular situation, but there's a lot of good that comes from that scenario as well.

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Not sure we can afford him next year. At this point owners don't know if they will be able to sell tickets next season. There could very well be a rush to trade him.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

Not sure we can afford him next year. At this point owners don't know if they will be able to sell tickets next season. There could very well be a rush to trade him.

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I've never seen this organization make a move based on current payroll. I don't see any reason to assume they'd start by diminishing the value of their number one asset.

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

I've never seen this organization make a move based on current payroll. I don't see any reason to assume they'd start by diminishing the value of their number one asset.

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I dont think there will be a rush to trade him, but if all of the stuff the FO has said about the money, it will be very difficult to keep him and his 20+ mil he will ask for in arbitration. I mean if we dont get a good deal back then yeah the owner has to bite the bullet and keep him, but I dont think we can keep him. This is an unusual year so they cannot do things the conventional way.

I think the Indians will be a good team next season, so i dont want to lose Lindor but we may have to move him by default, ugh..

sportscoach said:

if all of the stuff the FO has said about the money, it will be very difficult to keep him and his 20+ mil he will ask for in arbitration.

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Why?

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

Why?

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If you keep Lindor, Hand and Santana, your payroll is around 100 mil, cut those 3, its 50-60 mil (depending on who they keep and all the raises). They had payroll originally at 80 something this year (87 I believe) and if you read between the lines sounds like they need below the current projected 2020 payroll. The Covid plus not having a minority owner really hurt the budget. So cut 3 guys and cut your payroll in half is what on paper will effect your team the least.

If you make the move, you may be able to bring back Hernandez (or another middle INF veteran, preferably a SS), Hand and Santana on short term contracts (Hand and Santana on lower per year. I feel we may need Hand one more season) then you would replace the last spot of those 4 internally.

You potentially on paper have similar production from players for a lower payroll. The FO will have to be creative and lower payroll so moving Lindor who is a 4th of your payroll by himself, could help relieve the issue. If you cannot sign him long term, maybe you gotta take what ya can get and move on.