Future Roster - Trade Needs

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

If you keep Lindor, Hand and Santana, your payroll is around 100 mil, cut those 3, its 50-60 mil (depending on who they keep and all the raises). They had payroll originally at 80 something this year (87 I believe) and if you read between the lines sounds like they need below the current projected 2020 payroll. The Covid plus not having a minority owner really hurt the budget. So cut 3 guys and cut your payroll in half is what on paper will effect your team the least.

If you make the move, you may be able to bring back Hernandez (or another middle INF veteran, preferably a SS), Hand and Santana on short term contracts (Hand and Santana on lower per year. I feel we may need Hand one more season) then you would replace the last spot of those 4 internally.

You potentially on paper have similar production from players for a lower payroll. The FO will have to be creative and lower payroll so moving Lindor who is a 4th of your payroll by himself, could help relieve the issue. If you cannot sign him long term, maybe you gotta take what ya can get and move on.

So, if there are concerns over next year's payroll--so much so that we have to chop 20 million off the top, wouldn't the first move be to not pick up Santana's option?

I think it's true that ownership is losing money this year, and projected to lose money next year. Is a baseball team something where you need to make a profit every single year you own the team? I'd say no--and that you take the losses a catastrophe like COVID may bring, and just chalk it up to the cost of doing business. You still have your profits from the other years, and the smart moves you make during this two-year panic window will increase the valuation of your franchise far more than the money you can save today.

Basically, we shouldn't be reducing the value of our assets. It's short-sighted and bad business.

 

[sportscoach]

So, if there are concerns over next year's payroll--so much so that we have to chop 20 million off the top, wouldn't the first move be to not pick up Santana's option?

I think it's true that ownership is losing money this year, and projected to lose money next year. Is a baseball team something where you need to make a profit every single year you own the team? I'd say no--and that you take the losses a catastrophe like COVID may bring, and just chalk it up to the cost of doing business. You still have your profits from the other years, and the smart moves you make during this two-year panic window will increase the valuation of your franchise far more than the money you can save today.

Basically, we shouldn't be reducing the value of our assets. It's short-sighted and bad business.

We are over 100 mil paying everyone and we have to be under 80 from everything that's going on.

The only players with significant contracts next season are Santana 17.5, Hand 10, Carrasco 12, JRam 9.4 and Lindor at 20+. Essentially 70% of the 100 mil projected is in 5 guys. With Santana and Hand cuts like 25 if you don't take the option, puts you at a little over 75 (i had that at 77). How much more does the organization need to go down?

With Lindor traded, you will get at least a couple solid prospects back, plus have room to possibly bring in a veteran INF and resign Hand for the 2021 season. We are losing at the current moment, Hernandez, O. Perez, Santana, Hand, Leon. We have no veteran lefties in the bullpen, so bringing back Perez or Hand in my mind is a must. Next up for lefties in the bullpen is Gose and Nelson. I feel if we keep Lindor, there is almost no room to do anything else with the roster. On paper, we could get more overall production from moving Lindor since we could spread the money he is due over multiple positions. Its hard to merit for a smaller market team having over 1/4 of your payroll in one player.

If this was a normal off season with a minority owner, this would never be apart of the conversation. If they have to get under the 75 area mark, then Lindor has to go. Even of we stay at that mark, can we merit keeping him losing production at 2B, and a proven 1B and Closer, plus having no LHP with MLB experience in the bullpen? Keeping Lindor also maxes the budget, so we can only bring in guys on minor league invites, no veterans we can trade for or bring in on major league deals.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

We are over 100 mil paying everyone and we have to be under 80 from everything that's going on.

The only players with significant contracts next season are Santana 17.5, Hand 10, Carrasco 12, JRam 9.4 and Lindor at 20+. Essentially 70% of the 100 mil projected is in 5 guys. With Santana and Hand cuts like 25 if you don't take the option, puts you at a little over 75 (i had that at 77). How much more does the organization need to go down?

With Lindor traded, you will get at least a couple solid prospects back, plus have room to possibly bring in a veteran INF and resign Hand for the 2021 season. We are losing at the current moment, Hernandez, O. Perez, Santana, Hand, Leon. We have no veteran lefties in the bullpen, so bringing back Perez or Hand in my mind is a must. Next up for lefties in the bullpen is Gose and Nelson. I feel if we keep Lindor, there is almost no room to do anything else with the roster. On paper, we could get more overall production from moving Lindor since we could spread the money he is due over multiple positions. Its hard to merit for a smaller market team having over 1/4 of your payroll in one player.

If this was a normal off season with a minority owner, this would never be apart of the conversation. If they have to get under the 75 area mark, then Lindor has to go. Even of we stay at that mark, can we merit keeping him losing production at 2B, and a proven 1B and Closer, plus having no LHP with MLB experience in the bullpen? Keeping Lindor also maxes the budget, so we can only bring in guys on minor league invites, no veterans we can trade for or bring in on major league deals.

Lindor has to be traded, otherwise all we get back after he leaves the next year is a draft pick. Kluber, Bauer, Clev - they were all traded before their contracts expired and Lindor will be no exception especially considering how high his salary has gotten.

Hand is losing his fastball. It's down to 91.5. Two years ago it was 94.1 and last year 92.9. He's still getting by on experience and his off-speed stuff but he's on borrowed time, IMO. HIs swinging strike percentage is 9.0% as opposed to 13% the last three years. Swings at pitches outside the zone has dropped 33% since last year. In terms of xFIP Hand ranks 128 out of 187 relief pitchers according to Fangraphs.

With the emergence of Maton and Karinchak and the arrival of Clase next year I don't see Hand returning unless he is willing to take a smaller amount on a one-year deal.

Santana also appears to be in decline, hitting .173 against left-handed pitching. His wRC+ is at 86, down from 135 last year and 121 for his career. His hard hit percentage is down from 44% to 33% since last year, according to Statcast. His ability to hit the fastball has declined dramatically according to Fangraphs. At 34 he's slowing down. His WAR after 40 games is 0.1, projecting to 0.4 over a full season. Last year it was 4.4. Pitchers are catching on. He hasn't drawn a walk in seven games.

I expect they will decline Santana's option and move Naylor to first base. I could see an outfield of Naquin, Mercado, and Luplow/Daniel Johnson.

So they will trim off around $40 million with the departures of Lindor, Santana, and Hand. That should pretty much do it. They might be able to bring Hernandez back for another year. They may have to sign a free agent shortstop for a year unless they pick up one that is major league ready in the Lindor deal. It's supposed to be a seller's market this winter with depressed prices for free agents so they may be able to find an affordable shortstop.

 

[sportscoach]

Lindor has to be traded, otherwise all we get back after he leaves the next year is a draft pick. Kluber, Bauer, Clev - they were all traded before their contracts expired and Lindor will be no exception especially considering how high his salary has gotten.

Hand is losing his fastball. It's down to 91.5. Two years ago it was 94.1 and last year 92.9. He's still getting by on experience and his off-speed stuff but he's on borrowed time, IMO. HIs swinging strike percentage is 9.0% as opposed to 13% the last three years. Swings at pitches outside the zone has dropped 33% since last year. In terms of xFIP Hand ranks 128 out of 187 relief pitchers according to Fangraphs.

With the emergence of Maton and Karinchak and the arrival of Clase next year I don't see Hand returning unless he is willing to take a smaller amount on a one-year deal.

Santana also appears to be in decline, hitting .173 against left-handed pitching. His wRC+ is at 86, down from 135 last year and 121 for his career. His hard hit percentage is down from 44% to 33% since last year, according to Statcast. His ability to hit the fastball has declined dramatically according to Fangraphs. At 34 he's slowing down. His WAR after 40 games is 0.1, projecting to 0.4 over a full season. Last year it was 4.4. Pitchers are catching on. He hasn't drawn a walk in seven games.

I expect they will decline Santana's option and move Naylor to first base. I could see an outfield of Naquin, Mercado, and Luplow/Daniel Johnson.

So they will trim off around $44 million with the departures of Lindor, Santana, and Hand. That should pretty much do it. They might be able to bring Hernandez back for another year. They may have to sign a free agent shortstop for a year unless they pick up one that is major league ready in the Lindor deal.

I would look at Hand's recent trend and you will see he has been way better. It doesn't mean we have to bring back Hand as a Closer in a sense, but having a veteran Lefty out there with MLB experience I feel is a must. I dont think there is a lefty in all of baseball who throws harder than Gose and has less miles on their arm, but we dont know where his command is at since we havent been able to see him. Nelson is the other in house option, otherwise all our other lefties are starters who would have to be converted to the bullpen. Not having a veteran out there makes little sense to me. Also Karinchak goes through spells of not being able to command and he has shown that. When he's on, he's one of the best in baseball. When he is off, he looks like Wild Thing who needs glasses in major league.

Also we dont know how much Clase benefitted from the PEDs yet. I am sure most of the arm talent is natural, but until I see him and what he can do clean, I'm not penciling him in anywhere.

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

Lindor has to be traded, otherwise all we get back after he leaves the next year is a draft pick. Kluber, Bauer, Clev - they were all traded before their contracts expired and Lindor will be no exception especially considering how high his salary has gotten.

Hand is losing his fastball. It's down to 91.5. Two years ago it was 94.1 and last year 92.9. He's still getting by on experience and his off-speed stuff but he's on borrowed time, IMO. HIs swinging strike percentage is 9.0% as opposed to 13% the last three years. Swings at pitches outside the zone has dropped 33% since last year. In terms of xFIP Hand ranks 128 out of 187 relief pitchers according to Fangraphs.

With the emergence of Maton and Karinchak and the arrival of Clase next year I don't see Hand returning unless he is willing to take a smaller amount on a one-year deal.

Santana also appears to be in decline, hitting .173 against left-handed pitching. His wRC+ is at 86, down from 135 last year and 121 for his career. His hard hit percentage is down from 44% to 33% since last year, according to Statcast. His ability to hit the fastball has declined dramatically according to Fangraphs. At 34 he's slowing down. His WAR after 40 games is 0.1, projecting to 0.4 over a full season. Last year it was 4.4. Pitchers are catching on. He hasn't drawn a walk in seven games.

I expect they will decline Santana's option and move Naylor to first base. I could see an outfield of Naquin, Mercado, and Luplow/Daniel Johnson.

So they will trim off around $40 million with the departures of Lindor, Santana, and Hand. That should pretty much do it. They might be able to bring Hernandez back for another year. They may have to sign a free agent shortstop for a year unless they pick up one that is major league ready in the Lindor deal. It's supposed to be a seller's market this winter with depressed prices for free agents so they may be able to find an affordable shortstop.

Micheal Brantley wasn't. The three people you listed also happened to play in a position of strength, where Brantley was in a position that we lacked. So they rode him out.

I am not saying Lindor will be kept, what I am saying is the position of 'he will 100% be traded' is wrong. While the FO will definitely want to move his $20 million, there are things you are not factoring in.

You mentioned the sellers market(actually, backwards, buyers market) this coming off season that will depress salaries. You are not factoring in that other teams have had this financial impact, too. Teams will most likely not be willing to give up as much in a trade for Lindor.

 

[MadThinker88]

Micheal Brantley wasn't. The three people you listed also happened to play in a position of strength, where Brantley was in a position that we lacked. So they rode him out.

I am not saying Lindor will be kept, what I am saying is the position of 'he will 100% be traded' is wrong. While the FO will definitely want to move his $20 million, there are things you are not factoring in.

You mentioned the sellers market(actually, backwards, buyers market) this coming off season that will depress salaries. You are not factoring in that other teams have had this financial impact, too. Teams will most likely not be willing to give up as much in a trade for Lindor.

Agreed.. If the Tribe is not getting an offer they believe is sufficient for Lindor, they will continue to hold onto him.

Some fans have complained the Clevinger deal was too much quantity over quality. Well by the same token if the Tribe is only offered quantity (not quality) they will have to make a determination: is the quantity sufficient? If not, they will continue to hold onto Lindor & go the route of the qualifying offer (to get back a draft pick). Let's consider who the Tribe has gotten via the Competitive Balance Picks over the past 7 drafts...

• * RHP Tanner Burns, 36th player taken in 2020
• * RHP Lenny Torres, 41st player taken in 2018.
• * INF Tyler Freeman, 71st player taken in 2017.
• * C Logan Ice, 72nd player taken in 2016.
• * RHP Triston McKenzie, 42nd player taken in 2015.
• * Outfielder Mike Papi, 39th player taken in 2014.

Would I prefer a noted talent with control for Lindor? Yes.
But I would also refer a chance to get another Triston McKenzie then a group of three 17 yr old prospect / players that never get above AA ball...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Agreed.. If the Tribe is not getting an offer they believe is sufficient for Lindor, they will continue to hold onto him.

Some fans have complained the Clevinger deal was too much quantity over quality. Well by the same token if the Tribe is only offered quantity (not quality) they will have to make a determination: is the quantity sufficient? If not, they will continue to hold onto Lindor & go the route of the qualifying offer (to get back a draft pick). Let's consider who the Tribe has gotten via the Competitive Balance Picks over the past 7 drafts...

• * RHP Tanner Burns, 36th player taken in 2020
• * RHP Lenny Torres, 41st player taken in 2018.
• * INF Tyler Freeman, 71st player taken in 2017.
• * C Logan Ice, 72nd player taken in 2016.
• * RHP Triston McKenzie, 42nd player taken in 2015.
• * Outfielder Mike Papi, 39th player taken in 2014.

Would I prefer a noted talent with control for Lindor? Yes.
But I would also refer a chance to get another Triston McKenzie then a group of three 17 yr old prospect / players that never get above AA ball...

They can't afford to pay him $20 million next year even if they would rather have the draft pick. They'll trade him for the best package they can get and if it's quantity when they want quality, they'll still take it. Like they said, "Enjoy him while you can" and that was before this season's "extraordinary" losses.

Brantley wasn't traded prior to his final season because he was coming off back-to-back seasons where he was hurt and played a total of 101 games, depressing his trade value. The Astros were smart to sign him as last year he put up the best WAR of his career by far at 4.6 and this year his numbers are virtually identical.

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

They can't afford to pay him $20 million next year even if they would rather have the draft pick. They'll trade him for the best package they can get and if it's quantity when they want quality, they'll still take it. Like they said, "Enjoy him while you can" and that was before this season's "extraordinary" losses.

Brantley wasn't traded prior to his final season because he was coming off back-to-back seasons where he was hurt and played a total of 101 games, depressing his trade value. The Astros were smart to sign him as last year he put up the best WAR of his career by far at 4.6 and this year his numbers are virtually identical.

And right up until the 2018 trade deadline he was producing as an all star, yet not traded, when he could have been.

Ironic that depressed trade value is not being applied to Lindor, but is to Brantley.

 

[xmasbuck]

to be sure, Antonetti was talking "financial realities" in January and February - before covid hit and before the subsequent financial calamities for many businesses including mlb - i remain interested (and worry) about what the payroll will be in '21

 

[sportscoach]

to be sure, Antonetti was talking "financial realities" in January and February - before covid hit and before the subsequent financial calamities for many businesses including mlb - i remain interested (and worry) about what the payroll will be in '21

Its going to be hard to see us keeping above the 80 mil. @BimboColesHair do you know anything about what the budget looks like for next season?.

 

[CDAV45]

I would look at Hand's recent trend and you will see he has been way better. It doesn't mean we have to bring back Hand as a Closer in a sense, but having a veteran Lefty out there with MLB experience I feel is a must. I dont think there is a lefty in all of baseball who throws harder than Gose and has less miles on their arm, but we dont know where his command is at since we havent been able to see him. Nelson is the other in house option, otherwise all our other lefties are starters who would have to be converted to the bullpen. Not having a veteran out there makes little sense to me. Also Karinchak goes through spells of not being able to command and he has shown that. When he's on, he's one of the best in baseball. When he is off, he looks like Wild Thing who needs glasses in major league.

Also we dont know how much Clase benefitted from the PEDs yet. I am sure most of the arm talent is natural, but until I see him and what he can do clean, I'm not penciling him in anywhere.

There is no chance that Hand's option is picked up regardless of his role. This FO will not pay a reliever $10M. Especially one that isn't versatile like Miller was for example, and whose "stuff" is waning. I stand by my opinion that we should have traded him if there was a good offer.

Francona was impressed with Gose. He'll be in the BP next season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him this season.

Clase's suspension will be over and his 100 mph cutter will also be in the BP.

Karinchak is experiencing growing pains. Did anyone actually think that he or any other reliever would/will not have rough patches?

Finding a LHRP will not be difficult, and it won't cost $10M.

 

[MadThinker88]

.............
Finding a LHRP will not be difficult, and it won't cost $10M.

Beyond Gose, the Tribe has Kyle Nelson waiting in the wings as a bullpen lefty. Other lefty arms as possible options include Sam Hentges, Scott Moss, Logan Allen & Adam Scott.

 

[CDAV45]

Beyond Gose, the Tribe has Kyle Nelson waiting in the wings as a bullpen lefty. Other lefty arms as possible options include Sam Hentges, Scott Moss, Logan Allen & Adam Scott.

I feel confident that one of those you named would do a fine job. Someone like Moss who can come in and throw strikes while missing bats at a good clip could be perfect. He could also go multiple innings as well. I think they will keep Allen ready to start in case of injury/ineffectiveness. Hentges throws hard and if he can establish some control would be another good option. I know very little about Nelson, but I'll look into him.

 

[sportscoach]

I'm not saying we have to have Hand, but i would like a veteran in the mix, whose experienced and whatnot.

I'm personally well aware of the guys available from our organization, but the Left handed starters the organization wants to keep as starters for now more than likely. Though with the three batter rule, you probably want the trained starters to be your bullpen arms in some ways.

 

[Gson]

I'm not saying we have to have Hand, but i would like a veteran in the mix, whose experienced and whatnot.

I'm personally well aware of the guys available from our organization, but the Left handed starters the organization wants to keep as starters for now more than likely. Though with the three batter rule, you probably want the trained starters to be your bullpen arms in some ways.

Which is what makes Nelson the most obvious choice for a LHRP.. not necessarily the most ready or the best. (because of the names listed as starters.. they won't all remain as starters) What Nelson does is throw strikes.. Nelson throws strikes with a low 90's FB and a swing and miss slide-piece.. He's better against minor league RHH's than minor league LHH's, so, that alone may make him more valuable with the three batter rule at the ML level...

Time will tell..