I know, and I should probably be more surprised than I am that 13 years after the last time they had a winning record, even with an extra playoff spot, it still might not be good enough to get in. But if you look at the schedules of the other contenders, assuming Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Baltimore are already in, it would be hard for all of them not to win at least 10 games.
Miami
Should win - at Den, at Jets, vs. Cin
Need to win 1 out of - vs. KC, vs. NE, at LV, at Buf
Indianapolis
Should win - at Hou, vs. Hou, vs. Jax
Need to win 1 out of - vs. GB, vs. Ten, at LV, at Pit
Tennessee
Should win - at Jax, vs. Det, at Hou
Need to win 1 out of - at Bal, at Ind, vs. Cle, at GB
Las Vegas
Should win - at Atl, at Jets, vs. LAC, at Den
Remaining schedule - vs. KC, vs. Ind, vs. Mia