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2021 NBA Draft Safari

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Maybe Cade falls down to the 20's so the Cavs have a chance to get him.
 
pinoycavsfan said:
Maybe Cade falls down to the 20's so the Cavs have a chance to get him.
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My hope is that the Cavs win 30 or so games like they did in 2013-14, yet get the #1. The way that lottery works now, it could be possible.
 
Way too early here, but assuming Sexland are real, doesn't Scottie Barnes look like a perfect fit? Every team needs athletic, multi-positional defenders anyways, but with this backcourt we really need a low usage ball-mover and defender.

Edit: And the Cavs of recent years seem to have a pretty good track record in improving players' shot, Barnes biggest weakness.
 
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howler1313 said:
Way too early here, but assuming Sexland are real, doesn't Scottie Barnes look like a perfect fit? Every team needs athletic, multi-positional defenders anyways, but with this backcourt we really need a low usage ball-mover and defender.

Edit: And the Cavs of recent years seem to have a pretty good track record in improving players' shot, Barnes biggest weakness.
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What is the biggest difference between Scottie Barnes and Ben Simmons? I'm guessing usage as primary ball handler. I really like Barnes and his flexibility
 
The red flag for me on Barnes, relative to his physical gifts, he is a really meh rebounder and his hustle stat generation is really average. If you are taking anyone in the lottery of this draft, to me, they need to have at least one potentially elite skill and Barnes just strikes me as this kind of toolsy guy who theoretically looks better than he actually is. That is setting aside that he might not be able to shoot the side of a building from 6 feet away. :chuckle:

I'm almost more inclined to roll the dice on Boston or Williams, than I am to invest in what I think will be a super limited wing role player like Barnes, at the NBA level. A lot of time left but the value he'd have to provide, relative to how horrendous his shooting and scoring appears to be, doesn't seem realistic relative to his initial college tape.
 
A fun debate.......

We are lets say the 9th team in the East but win the lottery.

Do you build on that 9th seed finish?

Or do you just clear the deck for Suggs?

Which one and why?
 
Adam said:
What is the biggest difference between Scottie Barnes and Ben Simmons? I'm guessing usage as primary ball handler. I really like Barnes and his flexibility
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I'mWithDan said:
The red flag for me on Barnes, relative to his physical gifts, he is a really meh rebounder and his hustle stat generation is really average. If you are taking anyone in the lottery of this draft, to me, they need to have at least one potentially elite skill and Barnes just strikes me as this kind of toolsy guy who theoretically looks better than he actually is. That is setting aside that he might not be able to shoot the side of a building from 6 feet away. :chuckle:

I'm almost more inclined to roll the dice on Boston or Williams, than I am to invest in what I think will be a super limited wing role player like Barnes, at the NBA level. A lot of time left but the value he'd have to provide, relative to how horrendous his shooting and scoring appears to be, doesn't seem realistic relative to his initial college tape.
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It's a tough comparison in part because their college situations are so different. One factor is that Barnes has to play second banana to talented scoring guard MJ Walker. But the more significant factor is how much bigger FSU is than Simmons' LSU squad. I made a graph to compare their teams by height and weight to illustrate this (FSU players in blue, LSU players in red, minimum 10 minutes per game):

H1HyK.png


While Barnes and Simmons have similar skillsets, Barnes can't simply live in the paint like Simmons did. Instead he's often on the perimeter on both ends of the floor, and his stats reflect that role.
 
Nathan S said:
While Barnes and Simmons have similar skillsets, Barnes can't simply live in the paint like Simmons did. Instead he's often on the perimeter on both ends of the floor, and his stats reflect that role.
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I guess.....but Scottie Barnes averages significantly fewer rebounds than most guard prospects......and he's a forward.

When talking about a guy who potentially is an especially bad shooter.......if he's also not a good rebounder, he has to be an absolutely elite defender for that to make any sense. Unless he's Scottie Pippen defensively, I would have a tough time taking him in a draft like this......where I think there are going to be 15 really quality NBA prospects. From what I see, traditionally players like Barnes need to be an outlying impact less scoring player and he's just bottom half of average currently......and that is with (likely) inflated assist totals.

A lot of basketball left but he would really need to improve, relative to a more traditional profile, to likely turn in to an impactful player on the wing. Not impossible given his physical gifts but I think he's really a classic mid lotto prototype player......where teams buy in to his physical tools and ignore his production, in hopes he realizes his potential. More times than not, those guys just wash out and it is typically the reason teams in that 6-9 range tend to not improve........and also why you see a lot of good players drafted 10-14, that don't make any sense 4-5 years removed from a draft.

Just what I see through 8-9 games here, is the bar is going to be so damn high in the entire lottery. There are just too many players tracking in these upper tiers through 25% of the season to expect that this draft won't just be ridiculously good kind of anywhere in the top 12-15 picks. I would put Barnes in that group but he would really come towards the end for me. So maybe there is alignment if the Cavs end up in the 12-14 range and he is there.
 
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I'mWithDan said:
I guess.....but Scottie Barnes averages significantly fewer rebounds than most guard prospects......and he's a forward.

When talking about a guy who potentially is an especially bad shooter.......if he's also not a good rebounder, he has to be an absolutely elite defender for that to make any sense. Unless he's Scottie Pippen defensively, I would have a tough time taking him in a draft like this......where I think there are going to be 15 really quality NBA prospects. From what I see, traditionally players like Barnes need to be an outlying impact less scoring player and he's just bottom half of average currently......and that is with (likely) inflated assist totals.

A lot of basketball left but he would really need to improve, relative to a more traditional profile, to likely turn in to an impactful player on the wing. Not impossible given his physical gifts but I think he's really a classic mid lotto prototype player......where teams buy in to his physical tools and ignore his production, in hopes he realizes his potential. More times than not, those guys just wash out and it is typically the reason teams in that 6-9 range tend to not improve........and also why you see a lot of good players drafted 10-14, that don't make any sense 4-5 years removed from a draft.

Just what I see through 8-9 games here, is the bar is going to be so damn high in the entire lottery. There are just too many players tracking in these upper tiers through 25% of the season to expect that this draft won't just be ridiculously good kind of anywhere in the top 12-15 picks. I would put Barnes in that group but he would really come towards the end for me. So maybe there is alignment if the Cavs end up in the 12-14 range and he is there.
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Seems rather harsh to expect that his assists will regress downward but his rebounding will not improve...no? We'll have to wait and see, of course. Given FSU's enormous frontcourt, a rebound rate of 10-12 per 100 would not concern me (currently at 8.1). I'm more interested in seeing whether he can maintain his assist/steal rates, which are very high for a prospect his size.
 
Nathan S said:
Seems rather harsh to expect that his assists will regress downward but his rebounding will not improve...no? We'll have to wait and see, of course. Given FSU's enormous frontcourt, a rebound rate of 10-12 per 100 would not concern me (currently at 8.1). I'm more interested in seeing whether he can maintain his assist/steal rates, which are very high for a prospect his size.
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My point was his non scoring impact already looks pretty pedestrian.....and that is with what is likely an unsustainable assist rate. If that comes down, his non scoring impact will drag down even further.

I’d imagine he will rebound a bit better but it would be offset by the assist rate coming down. If you are casting him in a “super” role player spot, he just doesn’t really profile that way to me.

I find him interesting as a player but his data tends to say he’s somewhat more a shot in the dark right now.
 
I'm watching Scottie Barnes.....what is he? Draymond? Is that what you hope for?

I struggle with what his NBA archetype is.......seems like a plus athlete, plus high IQ player......but all of his film, from high school and college, is of him scoring around the basket.

Draymond is one of the few guys I can think of who excelled without high volume shooting and minus a reliable outside shot. Is there someone else I'm not thinking of? Iggy?
 
I'mWithDan said:
My point was his non scoring impact already looks pretty pedestrian.....and that is with what is likely an unsustainable assist rate. If that comes down, his non scoring impact will drag down even further.

I’d imagine he will rebound a bit better but it would be offset by the assist rate coming down. If you are casting him in a “super” role player spot, he just doesn’t really profile that way to me.

I find him interesting as a player but his data tends to say he’s somewhat more a shot in the dark right now.
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Why do you keep talking about the assist rate coming down? He's only really had one bad game all season in the assist:TO column. When I imagine the classic regression candidate I think of the guy who had 12 assists in a 50-point win over eastern idaho technical college but little success otherwise. That hasn't been the story for Barnes. He looks like a very safe bet to continue as the leading assist guy for a pretty good FSU squad. Of course, he's their top perimeter playmaker on defense at well. If he can additionally produce more consistent offense attacking the basket (though not an easy task with the paint so crowded), he'll have the building blocks to be a rare and valuable kind of player.
 
Nathan S said:
Why do you keep talking about the assist rate coming down? He's only really had one bad game all season in the assist:TO column. When I imagine the classic regression candidate I think of the guy who had 12 assists in a 50-point win over eastern idaho technical college but little success otherwise. That hasn't been the story for Barnes. He looks like a very safe bet to continue as the leading assist guy for a pretty good FSU squad. Of course, he's their top perimeter playmaker on defense at well. If he can additionally produce more consistent offense attacking the basket (though not an easy task with the paint so crowded), he'll have the building blocks to be a rare and valuable kind of player.
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In the possession era, there's been just two 3/4 wing types with a per 100 assist rate above 7 (Kyle Anderson and Ben Simmons). It seems to take a really unique mix of usage and ast% for a wing to maintain a rate that high.....maybe Scottie will maintain that......but I think the focus on it pulling back isn't necessarily the point. Maybe it stays the same.

Putting that aside, he still doesn't exhibit the type of non scoring impact you'd want in someone who is going to be a complimentary player IMO. He can't shoot, he doesn't score efficiently and it doesn't look like he has self creation potential at the NBA level. He has tools and an interesting frame, I just don't find the type of off ball player he is likely to be to be particularly valuable if he can't shoot at all. What do you envision him doing at the NBA level on offense?

In general though, I am honestly fascinated to watch players whose profiles go against typical NBA convention, for their projected draft position and likely role at the NBA level. Will be curious to see how he ends up compared to past players with similar frames / impact output.
 
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