In-depth ESPN Insider article today focusing on Sengun but also with a substantial section on Garuba. I won't post the whole thing, but here are some parts that stood out to me:
[Sengun] weighed as much as 268 pounds at one point, heavy-footed defensively with a half-court game that lived mostly inside 15 feet. When I first evaluated him at the U16 European Championships in 2018, I wasn't sure what to make of him, as he lumbered up and down the court yet scored at will with a skill level well beyond his years.
Once COVID-19 hit and put a pause on play, Sengun cut out sweets, started taking his training more seriously and trimmed down to 242 pounds. At somewhere between 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-10 with a wingspan nearing 7 feet, he is about the same size as
Kevin Love was coming out of UCLA, though Sengun is a much more explosive leaper with his newfound frame.
I knew he had dropped weight this season, but I didn't know quite how much. Much like with Jokic and Marc Gasol, his weight loss suddenly unlocked a much higher level of production.
Even the biggest Sengun fans will concede Turkish League competition isn't what it used to be ... Despite the level of the Turkish League being down, Sengun's production still stands out when compared to lauded international bigs before him.
I'm a little bit frustrated that Schmitz doesn't offer any further insight on this point. I'm only casually familiar with European basketball, but from what I can tell, the Turkish League remains the second-strongest domestic league in Europe after the Spanish League, meaning that he's faced tougher competition than most European prospects face. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not sure what I'm missing here.
With Beskitas clearly making an effort to showcase him, Sengun is allowed to play through mistakes more than a typical 18-year-old international prospect playing big minutes.
I don't think this is correct at all. Besiktas has absolutely nothing to gain by showcasing Sengun; to the contrary, it would've been in their favor to keep him more under the radar in the hopes of delaying his jump to the NBA. He's allowed to play through mistakes because his positive contributions on the court far outweigh his mistakes, especially considering the limited alternative options Besiktas has in the frontcourt.
Sengun is best operating 15 feet and in. He fights for deep post position and is already elite at spinning off of his defender as he feels him leaning in one direction or the other. He uses ball fakes, up-and-unders and scoop shots to deter rim protectors. Although not quick in a traditional sense, he's incredibly flexible for his body type, able to maneuver through tight spaces. While the natural comparison with those quick spins is Jokic, Sengun also has a lot of young
Jahlil Okafor in his post-up attack. He plays off of face-up hesitations and spin moves like Okafor did in high school and at Duke, eventually palming the ball and finishing with contact.
This is a good description of how Sengun operates in the post, in contrast to other writeups which bizarrely focus on a hook shot that Sengun rarely utilizes these days. His post game is all about trying to get to the rim and finish.
Sengun is also a physical roller with some of the best hands I've ever seen from an 18-year-old. He catches everything thrown his way, isn't afraid to try to dunk on bigs at the rim and has the short roll touch shots necessary to neutralize NBA shot-blockers. With that said, at 6-foot-9, Sengun's paint dominance won't translate seamlessly to the NBA like it has for some 7-footers before him. The same moves that work against 33-year-old bigs such as Vladimir Stimac will likely be erased by Gobert, Embiid and
Giannis Antetokounmpo.
I'm glad Schmitz also points to his finishing ability as a roll man; this is a natural way for him to contribute in the NBA right away. I agree that he will see a dropoff in production, but I'm confused by the implication that 7-footers are able to seamlessly translate their paint dominance to the NBA. Maybe decades ago that was true, but in recent times even the best 7-foot prospects like Towns and Ayton don't simply waltz into the All-Star game their rookie year. Pretty much everyone, especially rookies, will struggle to score against Gobert/Embiid/Giannis types.
Watching him play 3-on-3, 4-on-4 and 5-on-5, Sengun handled the ball on the perimeter, splashed open 3s, threw no-look passes to open teammates and used ball fakes in the paint to create open shots. Sharing the floor for former collegiate standouts such as James Blackmon Jr (Indiana), Markell Johnson (NC State) and Joel Berry (UNC), Sengun was regularly the best player on the floor.
This points to Sengun's budding versatility, which is a big part of what makes his ceiling so interesting, and what makes him great rather than merely good in his current role. In one game recently, he dribbled the ball down the middle of the court, set his feet and faked the shot at the top of the key, and dished to his teammate for the open 3. Plays like that you just don't see very often from an 18-year-old big.
It also points to the level of competition in Turkey. In a weaker league, Blackmon and Berry surrounded by capable roleplayers might be a championship team. In Turkey, even with Sengun's MVP season, they had to fight hard just to secure a playoff spot. This isn't a Gonzaga-like situation where they simply win most of their games in blowouts.
Having also watched a full shooting workout on an off day, it became clear that Sengun, who is just 4-of-23 from 3 this season, will eventually make NBA 3s with relative ease, allowing him to play some as a power forward in two-big lineups, at least offensively. Sengun's 79% free throw clip is more indicative of the type of shooter he could become in time than his lack of 3s attempted this season. He doesn't lack confidence, either, as he splashed a step-back 3 in a senior national team game against Sweden.
Although most of Beskitas' talent lies on the perimeter, forcing Sengun into more of an interior role, he has the ability to eventually modernize his game as a floor-spacer, ball handler and passer, giving him considerable upside to grow into offensively. He doesn't get up and down the floor like most NBA bigs, and he clearly will be best-suited in more of a slow-it-down style, but the potential to shoot 3s and create for his teammates is all there for the skilled teenager.
I mostly agree with this, but I'm confused by the suggestion that he "clearly will be best-suited in more of a slow-it-down style." Besiktas is playing at the fastest pace of any team in Turkey, faster than 95% of all NCAA teams, and Sengun is absolutely thriving in that run-and-gun system. I can't fathom why a team would try to make him adjust to a slow-it-down style in the NBA.
The biggest question Sengun faces is just how he'll defend at the NBA level. He's slow-footed on the perimeter and doesn't have the natural size to bang with the league's top-end NBA centers. He struggles to contain the ball in pick-and-roll ... With that said, you can't ignore Sengun's remarkable instincts on the defensive end of the floor. Similar to Jokic, he has quick hands and does a tremendous job reading the eyes of the ball handler when defending pick-and-rolls, registering 1.9 steals per 40 minutes. His anticipation is elite, and he's a risk taker on the floor, for better or for worse. He also has really good timing for blocks, covering ground quite impressively.
To me, there's more positive than negative here. Given the choice between a player with great physical tools and average anticipation/timing, and a player with average physical tools and great anticipation/timing, I'd take the latter 9 times out of 10. He's not going to hold down the fort himself, but it's fairly easy to see him being one half of a quality defensive frontcourt.
Garuba:
Real Madrid head coach Pablo Laso isn't afraid to give teenagers an opportunity, like he did Doncic. But he turns that opportunity into responsibility only if a player can impact winning, and Garuba has clearly earned his trust. Garuba has played in every game this season (36 EuroLeague, 32 ACB), with the majority of them coming when he was 18 years old.
Important to remember that Real Madrid, like all international teams with NBA prospects, has little incentive to showcase those prospects and hasten their departure to the NBA. When they play minutes it's because they've earned them, and Real Madrid is a deep, competitive team where it's not easy to earn rotation minutes.
Garuba will surely struggle with Embiid-type bigs but should be able to check some modern NBA centers in a pinch. Laso regularly unleashes him against point guards, as well, which is what makes him most interesting on the defensive end. In the Fenerbahce game I watched live, he stopped former NBA G League MVP
Lorenzo Brown, containing the guard's dribble penetration before blocking his shot in the paint. He strung together a few outstanding possessions against 6-5 Vasa Micic, former
Philadelphia 76ers draft pick and one of the best guards in the EuroLeague, in the first round of the playoffs against Efes. He has some of the quickest feet you'll see from a player his size. With incredibly active hands and a never-ending motor, he also understands the nuances of how to defend the pick-and-roll. Sometimes you see a big man version of
Marcus Smart with his defensive toughness and physicality.
I think this is a great summary of Garuba's defensive profile. Just an adequate defender in the frontcourt, but superb on switches against smaller players. Could be a fantastic partner for Allen defensively.
Garuba has always been much more of a question mark offensively. Because of his limitations, Garuba has played his best minutes as a small-ball center, slipping out of screens aggressively, playing out of the dunker spot and keeping plays alive on the offensive glass. Despite shaky hands, he's an excellent offensive rebounder who pursues the ball relentlessly. He can also make passes out of short rolls, either hitting the corner shooters or bigs in the dunker spot. Garuba is at his best when paired with a stretch 5, so he can worry less about spacing the floor, handling the ball and making reads and focus more on diving hard to the rim and rebounding.
This is a big drawback with Garuba, as at his size it's not clear that he'll be a great offensive rebounder or finisher in the NBA, and he doesn't do anything else particularly well offensively. Playing him at center in a small-ball lineup solves that problem, but it forces him into a role where he's less effective on defense.
With that said, he has shown some progress with his spot-up 3, knocking down 31% of his 96 attempts this season. He doesn't have great natural touch, his follow through is all over the place and he shoots just 57% from the free throw line, but Garuba's progress is notable.
Garuba's 3-point shooting is the big swing skill for him. I don't worry too much about the 57% foul shooting, as he got to the line extremely rarely this season, but his 31% 3-point shooting is just barely respectable, and I can't imagine he'll do much better in the NBA. He's a much easier fit if he can just knock down those 3's.
Who will be the first international player drafted?
As it stands now, I'd give the slight nod to Giddey because it's tougher to find 6-foot-8 playmakers who can dissect ball screens like he can. He's a more straightforward fit than both Sengun and Garuba. It's also easier for teams to put into context what he's doing in an Australian League that yielded two first-round picks last season.
Garuba and Sengun couldn't be more opposite, so where they land in the draft will come down to team needs. Regardless of who goes first, when you stack both of them up against a strong college class, it's fair to say that both are worthy of looks in the lottery. You could argue that Sengun is the most skilled big in the draft after Evan Mobley. You could make a strong case that Garuba is the most versatile defender in the entire draft.
So, while not every international scout will agree, there are three international prospects worthy of lottery attention, each poised to bring something completely different to the NBA game.
I mostly agree with this. I do think the familiarity of the Australian League is a bit of a trap, as it's not as competitive as the Turkish League, let alone the Spanish League. But Giddey is nonetheless a very strong prospect.
