Bieber's response when asked if hitters are adjusting to him:
“Teams are kind of laying off the off-speed stuff down, which has been my strength the last two years."
They showed a graphic during the game showing where each pitch was located on Bieber's strikeouts on his breaking ball. A majority were below the knees and out of the zone. There was also a column in FanGraphs a while back making the case that last year hitters would have done better against Bieber if they never swung the bat. A lot of his strikeouts would have been walks if batters just stood there and took every pitch.
Now players seem to be aware that swinging at low pitches against Bieber almost guarantees making an out. They're letting it go and waiting on something up in the zone. Yesterday Josh Donaldson had a 3-2 count and was clearly expecting a breaking ball that would come in at knee level and drop. He got a fastball just above the knees for a called strike three and the runner was thrown out trying to steal second.
Watching the game I kept saying Bieber needs to use his fastball more. It will be interesting to see if he does that next time out. He was having trouble locating it yesterday. The home run to Sano was a fastball right down the middle. Sano could not hit the breaking ball to save his life, however.
I was impressed with Sandler, who fell behind Simmons 3-0 with two out and the bases loaded with the score tied in the 6th. He was missing badly. But he manned up and threw two fastballs on the outside corner. On the 3-2 pitch with Simmons looking for another heater Sandler crossed him up with a slider on the outside corner that broke off the plate. Simmons, reading a fastball, swung and missed to strand three runners and keep the game tied.
Finally, Joe Noga had this on McKenzie:
McKenzie has held opposing batters to a .159 average in innings 1-3 of his eight starts, but has a 16.88 ERA in the fourth.
It's baffling to watch him cruise along and then in the blink of an eye totally lose his command, walk a couple of hitters, and then groove a fastball in a desparate effort to throw a strike. The stuff is there but he hasn't been able to maintain it for longer than three innings. Hopefully he can get over this hump. If not he could still be a guy you bring in to pitch a couple of middle innings effectively.
So I have posted before about it taking some time for the league to adjust to a pitcher, and here you have it from the horses (Biebs) mouth.
Scouting reports, therefore hitters, work off an accumulation of data. That data doesn't accumulate real fast when you only face hitters maybe 3 (if you are really good and they don't yank you for the dreaded 3rd time around) times a game and maybe a couple times per season. Yes there is tendency data and they will look at that. But the strongest memories are from face to face matchups. And it is that memory, of standing at the plate and facing a pitcher, that is most prevalent, in making those split second swing/no swing decision at the plate.
So good teams, good hitters, that haven't had much success against a pitcher will finally begin to "zone" you. And that is what is happening to Biebs. You hear pitchers say stuff like - "wow, they didn't chase that pitch, I always got chase on that before". And the best pitchers recognize what is happen to them and adjust. That is why, with all Biebs success, he isn't necessarily a known commodity quite yet. It will depend on his ability to adjust to the this trend which develops as teams/hitters learn how to attack him better.
They section the plate. So with Biebs, a general rule would be something like - anything starting mid thigh or lower you don't swing - because he uses so many chase pitches (CB, SL) below the zone. And they simply use the rule to govern when they will swing the bat. That way
Pitch Identification becomes a mute point. They work off location identification. And in his case it takes away the one main thing he has always had since his arrival - the fact that hitters can't see the difference between his slider and FB. So if they see a pitch that looks like a FB, that will end up in the lower part of the zone, they simply don't swing. If it happens to be a FB, they just look stupid, but they aren't chasing SLs and CBs at their toes. And depending on the pitchers mix and or count, taking called strikes on a FB gives you a better chance of success than trying to ID the type of pitch that is coming at you.
Sometimes it takes teams/hitters awhile to figure it out, even if it has been obvious for awhile. And in Biebs case, it has been obvious for quite some time. But teams/hitters are finally waking up and we will see where it goes from here.