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Pitching

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Some basic stuff.

Cutters don’t move much. They have the least movement in an arsenal. That is what makes them such a reliable strike pitch. Cutters (as in cut FBs) flight path to the plate is the most similar to a FB. Next would be slider. So cutters are really used relative to FBs because the flight path matches so well. And you really don’t talk about cutters as a singular pitch for starters. However, closers and starters are two different animals.

So hitters see a starter 2 maybe 3 times a game these days. They usually get multiple FBs per at bat, so they get a read on the starters FB. And hitters do this day in day out. So their swings get grooved to FBs. Starters use cutters to “keep hitters off” their FBs one could say. As a pitch with less movement (which would seem to make it easier to hit) but enough of a difference from a 4 seam FB, with a very similar flight path, that hitters seeing 4 seam miss hit cutters.

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So above is a graph of big league cutters for this year. The bulk of the cutters fall in the red box I annotated. They move maybe 3” to 5” horizontally (one to two ball widths) or less for the most part, which isn’t a lot. If you knock out gravitational effects and just talk spin, you are talking 3” to 5” vertical movement also. So maybe 1 to 2 ball widths left/right and the same top/bottom as far as spin effects go. I annotated the graph with a couple guys so you could get a feel for where your guy Clase sits @Criznit.

His cutter is one of the “best” MLB wide – he sits there with Corbin Burns and for reference, that dot right under his picture is Kenley Jansen the Dodgers closer. You can see his cutter is definitely not the normal cutter that hitters see. What makes it different is he gets a tremendous amount of lift from the spin rate that has it be far removed from the norm. And in pitching, you want to be at least 2 standard deviations off the norm to have an elite pitch. Horizontally, it is in the average range but it is that lift that makes it special. So he has about the normal Horizontal movement (3”, about one ball width) but maybe 8” (3 ball widths) of extra rise over the average.

So @Criznit, his cutter has a lot more movement than the norm, but cutters just don’t move much

If cutters are straight, why do they work.
 
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First we need to talk about 4 seam FBs, the staple of todays MLB repertoire. Annotated above is a couple guys you will be familiar with so you can get a feel for how they rate against all the other pitchers throwing 4 seams. Biebs is pretty normal, Mr. “obvious stickey” Karinchak would be elite. And what makes him elite is the rise on his FB. Sits right up there at the top against all the other offerings from MLB pitchers. I also annotated a green box around the area most pitcher pitches lie. We can call this the average area. 5” to 10” movement into a right hander from a right hander and without gravity effects maybe 12” to 15” of rise which counters gravitational effects that leave you with maybe 15” of drop overall on average. Karinchak gets 5” to 6” more rise than the norm out of his spin rate/velocity and his overall drop is about 10”. Thus he gets a lot of popups because hitters swings are grooved to a FB that drops more than that.

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So Clase and Karinchak both sit way up at the top of their “pitch of choice” metrics. Both have elite pitches. Both are elite because they have more rise to them than the average. So just looking at their pitch metrics, you would ask, how do we use this elite pitch to maximum advantage @MattyFos and @Sharpner.
 
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Although scaling isn’t quite identical (close enough for descriptive purposes) I overlayed the cutter and 4s charts so that it would be easier to see and understand the interaction between the two.

Cutters move maybe 3” one way and 4s move 8” the other on average. 11” of difference. Flight paths are almost identical, early identification almost impossible. Swings are grooved to 4s because that is what hitters see day in day out in bulk. They swing 4s, get cutter and it is a miss hit even though a cutter is almost the straightest pitch you can throw. Because, swings are grooved to something else. And when you are a starter, you use the pitch so hitters can’t sit 4 seam and rock you. However, as a closer it is a little different.

Hitters see Closers once at most. And a closer uses a very limited repertoire. Because he throws very few pitches, having multiple pitch types like a starter means nothing for several reasons. One, they just can’t work 4 or 5 pitch types into an at bat. Two, only certain pitches of theirs are elite (which is what makes them closer material) and you sure do not want to get beat with a lesser pitch and not use your best.

Closers pitch at the end of the game, hitters hit from the start. Hitters swings are grooved to average pitches (over the course of a season), and have very recent memories of pitches that they have seen in earlier at bats that game. Most likely, the bulk of those pitches fall close to “average” for that pitch type. Along comes a closer with an elite pitch against hitters that have just experienced average with a swing grooved to average. Especially to 4s FBs that they have seen multiples of in at bats that very night. And now they get cutter after cutter after cutter (straightest pitch in the books) and it works. Because all the pitchers before them supplied the 4s FBs that are the most current memory of how FBs are moving in the hitters mind’s eye and that the cutter needs to be differentiated from in order to be effective. Whereas a starter, has to supply all those 4s FB his self in order to keep from getting his cutter smacked.
 
I understand the tunneling theory but my observation is that Clase's fastball isn't that hard to hit. FanGraphs has his contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone at 83.7%. So five out of six swings at pitches in the zone are hit. Even the outside zone swings make contact nearly half the time (46%). He throws 79% fastballs.

So if Clase throws a fastball nearly 80% of the time and 84% of his strikes are hit, don't we want to at least make sure those balls are outs? How best to do this?

Clase throws a sinking fastball from what I've read and it certainly looks that way on direct observation. His ground ball percentage this year is 70.8%, which I think qualifies him as an extreme ground ball pitcher. When he throws that sinking triple digit fastball at knee level it's a ground ball almost every time. When he throws it up in the zone it gets turned into line drives, even by a minor league lifer like Eric Haase as we saw Monday night. Clase threw another high fastball earlier that was drilled into left field for a hit.

So tunneling is a wonderful thing but Clase is having a lot of success throwing low smoke and I'd be seriously concerned if he decided to start throwing high fastballs, especially since his fastball is not that hard to put the bat on. I don't recall Corey Kluber throwing many high fastballs. He and Bieber throw a lot of low breaking stuff and get the hitters to chase pitches below the knees and off the outside corner. Then, when the hitters are used to seeing every pitch break down and away, they come in with a straight fastball at the knees for called strike three. That's also tunneling, right?

Hitters who are used to seeing Clase's fastball coming in at the knees swing and miss at low breaking balls they read as another low fastball. And sometimes they swing and miss because the pitch is just so different in velocity and movement from what they're geared up to hit that they can't adjust their swing in time.

Watching from the center field camera I never see Hedges or Rivera calling for a high strike when Clase is pitching. Every target is down. Maybe they think his stuff plays better down in the zone? Maybe they don't think tunneling is the be-and-end-all and not every single pitcher should be throwing high fastballs and low breaking stuff?

I hope the Indians change his approach and start having him throw high heat and tunnel his breaking balls off it before Karl Willis gets confined to the dust bin of history.
I would not consider Karl Lewis an "old school" guy. He not only desires to keep current on pitching technology and strategy, but he actually does it. And his ego doesn't get in the way. Karl used Bauer as a resource, consulted with him on technology and strategy not only in season but out of season with the express purposes of trying to "keep up" and update his box of tools to stay current with the rapid changing pitching landscape. Karl isn't going to get relegated.
 
Will post something more on the direct tunneling aspect @MattyFos, @Sharpner, but you can't discuss tunneling without really understanding what you are trying to tunnel. So I laid out the basics here, but after a few hours to put this together, have to give it a break for awhile and get back to real world responsibilities. :conf (11):
 
@jup Thanks Jup. Movement isn't the right word, "life" maybe? I was watching vids of Rivera and it just seems like his cutter is so much better to me.. Probably an unfair comparison.
 
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From a Hoynes column after Karinchak nearly blew a three-run lead against the White Sox Tuesday night:

Karinchak, in his first 21 games this season, was almost unhittable. He had a 0.44 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings. He allowed three hits.

It was a streak that couldn’t last. . .and it didn’t. Karinchak has allowed nine runs, seven earned, in his last five games.

“He was obviously punching the world out earlier in the year,” said [Austin] Hedges. “Now he’s kind of figuring out how to get guys out if they’re going to put the ball in play. Which is good, you know?

“It’s going to happen. It’s the big leagues. Guys are going to make adjustments, guys are going to learn you.”


So I guess we won't continue to see a line of 21 innings, 3 hits, and 38 strikeouts any more. It was fun while it lasted.

Hedges went on to say that Karinchak is bascially a two-pitch pitcher - high fastball and low curve. Batters are picking one and sitting on it, making sure they at least put the ball in play. Last night there were two ground balls up the middle that found their way into center field and two more singles looped over the infield. Nobody hit the ball hard, but if you put it in play there's a chance it finds a hole.

"So, the league’s making adjustments. Now it’s his turn to make an adjustment. That’s what he’s going to do.”

Hentges believes Karinchak can make any correction that is needed.

“He works so hard. We have so much belief in him,” said Hentges. “Outings like this are great for a young guy like him in a closer role. Now he knows what it’s like. It’s not going to be easy every time. That’s why it’s the big leagues. I was proud of him for responding as well.”


Bases loaded, two out, Indians up 6-5, and Jose Abreu at the dish with a 2-0 count. What a spot, especially after already allowing four hits, two runs, and throwing over 20 pitches. Throwing the curve was dangerous because if it's in the dirt there's the chance it gets away from Hedges and Tim Anderson, who can run, is on third. Karinchak had to throw a fastball in the zone and Abreu knew it. So he throws the heater and Abreu swings, but the pitch was on the outside corner just above the knees and Abreu rolled over on it for an easy two-hopper to short.

Great pitch by Karinchak with the game on the line against an All-Star with 46 RBI's in 49 games. If he can master the low fastball to go along with the high fastball and the big hook we'll really have something here.
 
Has Hentges anointed Karinchak as the closer? I thought it was still in play. I still thinkClase is better suited to close games.
 
3 of the 4 hits allowed were on the first pitch of the AB.

His walk rate seemed unsustainable in April (2 walks in 10-2/3 IP) and has normalized (11 walks in 14 IP since)

Not overly concerned unless the MLB starts to come down hard on foreign substance users
 
Karinchak called out again for obvious ball doctoring, this time Tito and Co asked about it by media.

This should be simple.

"Hey dipshit, at least make some sort of effort to hide your shit, like everyone else."
 
Karinchak called out again for obvious ball doctoring, this time Tito and Co asked about it by media.

If anyone asked the question I would deny deny deny and just play this at my locker….

“I simply have no idea what you’re talking about… But I wanna talk Tribe”…


 
Karinchak called out again for obvious ball doctoring, this time Tito and Co asked about it by media.

Willis is pretty good here.

Um yeah I am probably gonna talk to him today but not sure what I am going to say cause I don't know what is going on... LOL.
 

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