Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

Lee said:

I am not as high on him as some, but his defensive metrics are off the charts. He is playing a bit less minutes and shooting better, .515 to .555. His 2 point shooting is up 3.3, and 3 point is up 1.6 and hasnt even finished his first year playing a new position...SG instead of SF.

His per 36 rebounding is up, assists are only up slightly.

You said 4 years, then you said college should count, but didnt address including college its 2.5 years, so you must be including high school.

I am being realistic about his total shooting not being horrible. Overall shooting is 45.3 which is average for a SG while 40% of his shots come from 3, and shooting a very respectable 54% from 2.

He is never going to be a high assist guy, which is fine, we dont want the ball in his hands, and i think he can improve his shooting to maybe 35% from 3, 60% overall which with defense is fine. His is a perfect player next to our other 3 all stars, I am fine with his development so far.

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His defensive metrics aren’t “off the charts” lol. Show me these metrics you speak of.

And I disagree that Okoro not being a high assist guy doesn’t matter. How low is the bar for this dude that people are willing to accept having our supposed starting SG of the future solely be a good defender of 2 positions while offering no creation ability on offense, very little playmaking, and below average shooting in your ideal scenario assuming he improves?

If you’re a starting SG, you have to be able to either create your own shot and playmake for others or you have to be able to shoot the 3 at a good clip and be an off ball threat. You can’t be poor at both, even if your defense is all-worldly which Okoro’s is not, especially considering he’s not very switchable and he’s not a force on the boards at all. Come playoff time, being an offensive liability only becomes worse because smart teams game plan to force that guy to do more than he’s capable of as often as possible.

The Human Q-Tip said:

I don't think that works -- especially not in the playoffs. Because the truth is that the "certain assignments" you're going to need him for are going to be the best offensive backcourt players on the other playoff teams you'll be facing. And those guys are going to be starters, and playing lots and lots of minutes precisely because they are so good.

So if Okoro isn't starting and playing those same/equivalent minutes, he's going to be on the bench and not guarding those "certain assignments" for which you need his defense. Even if you say "well, you can just bring him off the bench for that assignment", then you're going to be playing him all those minutes anyway, and still suffering the same from whatever offense he doesn't provide for all the minutes he's playing.

If you have stud defenders integral to your defense, they need to be out there playing minutes guarding the opposing starters or they're not doing you any good.

This team is young, and Okoro is younger than most. Having that level of backcourt defender who can disrupt high-level offensive threats is a huge weapon, and I'd rather give him some significant time to develop his offensive game to see if he can develop into even an average offensive player.

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No backcourt defender is so "integral" that he simply has to play big minutes despite being a huge offensive liability. That's how much the league has changed. Okoro should never have been drafted at #5 due to his defense. That was a major, major blunder.

If Okoro had been drafted in the 2nd round, he wouldn't be starting.

What I meant with "certain assignments" was that he should be a situational stopper, a defensive equivalent to a "microwave scorer".

All4One1ForAll said:

His defensive metrics aren’t “off the charts” lol. Show me these metrics you speak of.

And I disagree that Okoro not being a high assist guy doesn’t matter. How low is the bar for this dude that people are willing to accept having our supposed starting SG of the future solely be a good defender of 2 positions while offering no creation ability on offense, very little playmaking, and below average shooting in your ideal scenario assuming he improves?

If you’re a starting SG, you have to be able to either create your own shot and playmake for others or you have to be able to shoot the 3 at a good clip and be an off ball threat. You can’t be poor at both, even if your defense is all-worldly which Okoro’s is not, especially considering he’s not very switchable and he’s not a force on the boards at all. Come playoff time, being an offensive liability only becomes worse because smart teams game plan to force that guy to do more than he’s capable of as often as possible.

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Someone posted he was 4th in the league as shooting below average at any position. Not digging it up, its in here if you read. If that isnt elite, or "off the charts" i dont know what is.

Its such a stupid argument, he is +.2 in defensive rating, he is elite defensive SG, any argument is just silly.

Heat Check said:

No backcourt defender is so "integral" that he simply has to play big minutes despite being a huge offensive liability.

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If Okoro is a "huge offensive liability" after getting a reasonable amount of time to develop, fine. I don't think he's yet gotten that time, and I do think he shows enough offensive growth that it is worthwhile continuing to give him minutes. But exactly how productive does he need to be before his defense makes him playable as a starter?

Last years Finals saw three guys on the Bucks who scored 15ppg or more in the Finals. Suns had only two.

Year before that in the Finals, the Lakers and Heat both had two guys at 15ppg.

Year before that the Raptors had three, and GSW had two.

Every other starter for those six Finals teams was below 15ppg.

That's not exactly a high bar in terms of scoring to be good enough to be a starter on a Finals team. I think we're a long way from concluding that Okoro is doomed to be such a huge liability on offense that he must be moved to the bench.

I'mWithDan said:

Is this an actual take? You shouldn't consider college shooting production? I'm not sure it is worth entertaining but let me know.

Touting a small sample improvement of 29.0% to 30.6% is just laughable and my point. So he's making 1 more shot out of 100. The increase he's seen in true shooting is attributed not to his 3 point % but to the fact that he's converting at a higher percentage at the rim.

With that said, he's seen very, very marginal improvement in a small sample when his role is even easier than it was. That is my big concern here, bigger picture. He's paired with 3 players who are playing at or near All-Star levels and he's barely improving on his first year. His assists are flat, his shooting is generally flat, he isn't flashing creation skill. He'll hit stretches that are more encouraging but then get injured or post a couple thud games.



Again, you personally treat this as something that only I am saying. Like it is subjective. What player lands in this quadrant that is truly valuable? Especially at the guard position?

I know you really like Isaac, which is fine. And you really want me to be wrong. .......I mean shit, I would love to be wrong. I am a Cavs fan. Being right about a player isn't the point of any of this. But aside from things like eye test anecdotes, there isn't a whole lot that he is doing that says he is a starting player at the guard position. Can he develop in to one? I mean sure......but that wasn't my argument. My argument was he is not a player who should be protected if a consequential player can be acquired for something like him + a pick. Would you disagree with that?

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It's hard to say what "player of consequence" means. I have seen Okoro win several games on this team. Like he just went out and took it at the end. There is 100% something intangible about him that makes me think he is going to do it.

He has some very strong fundamental elements to an offensive game that aren't coming through at the moment and we've only see flashed. Like I think he is going to be a very good finisher, but right now he isn't really. That takes time. It took Collin 3 years. I think Okoro came in rawer than Sexton offensively. He's anything but consistent right now, but none of our rooks but him had a 30 pt game including Mobley so far. There is something there, the question is whether he can access it.

I think his low end result is something like Marcus Smart. So for Isaac and a 1st I need a player better than that.

He's helping the team win right now, so while I get wanting to upgrade the team for contention, I still think we are in the infancy here, and I think Altman has done a good enough job hitting on picks that Isaac should be given more time to develop.

I mean Windler even seems to be coming on right now. Most of the board thought he and Okoro were useless to begin the season, and now they are thought of differently. That is just over a couple of months.

For the record, I don't even think your number crunching is irrelevant, but I specifically think you have trouble with projection and seeing things the numbers can't tell you. Like you claim its objective, but that just means team USA, the coaching staff, the guys on the team, and the front office are just deluding themselves too, right? They are just fans that can't help but have wine and gold colored glasses about Okoro?

Here's your projection of Darius.

I'mWithDan said:

Limited games but Garland was a negative AST/TO player.

I think his playmaking skills are largely misrepresented. He's not a zero passer but he's also just not a good NBA creator either. He's a score first guard, very similar to Collin.....who is a marginally better / more willing passer.

I think Garland is simply just a poor man's Kyrie. He's plays similarly but lacks the elite gifts that Kyrie has.

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BimboColesHair said:

And that's fine to think that way, if we were in the middle of a title window.

We are not. We will not be this year either, no matter what we do or who we trade. This team is still a ways away from being able to threaten the likes of the Golden State Warriors in a 7 game series.

Just a ridiculous standard to judge a group that is the youngest starting group in the NBA as a whole.

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Let me go ahead and first clarify that I've been a critic of Okoro's for much of the season.

I've said it elsewhere, but it feels like these are holdover feelings from when LeBron was here and the expectation was championship or bust every year.

You simply cannot hold this team, right now, to that standard. Jarrett Allen is the only one in that starting lineup that has even played postseason minutes.

Their window isn't even open yet and they are just now exiting their rebuild, albeit in surprising fashion. Before the season, most would have picked them to be a fringe play-in team and been content with that improvement. Now we're talking about them potentially securing homecourt advantage in at least the first round.

Enjoy the ride. They're playing with house money this year.

Cavatt said:

Here's your projection of Darius.

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This wasn't my projection of Darius and you damn well know it.

Everyone is free to read what I posted about Darius. The posts are all still there.

Ditto for anything in this thread you want to try to grave dig.

You are always trying to change the subject in discussions like this though, so I don't want to get distracted here.

I'mWithDan said:

The big concern I have with Okoro is he hasn’t shot the ball very well at all levels. And his FT % specifically has always been really underwhelming.

Bulky guys tend to have mechanical issues because of how that bulk limits range of motion to a degree.

If you are drafting him in the top 5, he needs to be a better version of Thybulle, which I personally just don’t see.

I wouldn’t hate Okoro, I just don’t think he’s worthy of a top 5 pick. Guess we’ll see what happens.

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Those were my concerns on Okoro. Nothing has really changed.

Cavatt said:

For the record, I don't even think your number crunching is irrelevant, but I specifically think you have trouble with projection and seeing things the numbers can't tell you. Like you claim its objective, but that just means team USA, the coaching staff, the guys on the team, and the front office are just deluding themselves too, right? They are just fans that can't help but have wine and gold colored glasses about Okoro?

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Yes. There are lots and lots and lots of examples of this specifically. In all sports.

Also plenty of examples of guys that do things in practice that never translate those things in to games for one reason or another.

Most guys who work hard, are tough and are generally likable are revered by their coaches and teammates. That doesn't make them players good enough to build around or hold on to moving forward.

Again, we always dissolve in to black and white here in these back and forths when my opinion is more flexible than you make it out to be. I think reading through both Collin and Darius' threads will give you that. You tend to get fixated on single points in time, like something posted about Darius describing his statistical profile, in a small sample and ignore any of the other qualitative things said throughout.

Lee said:

Someone posted he was 4th in the league as shooting below average at any position. Not digging it up, its in here if you read. If that isnt elite, or "off the charts" i dont know what is.

Its such a stupid argument, he is +.2 in defensive rating, he is elite defensive SG, any argument is just silly.

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His data says he is a good defender. Saying things like elite or off the charts is hyperbole. For some reason it is irritating around here to simply say someone is just good at something.

He's a good defender who has utility. He's young and can theoretically improve on offense. He doesn't have leading indicators that there is a tier jump there but maybe he improves very marginally for several years in a row and we end up with a guy who exits liability stage or is on the verge at least.

We always have these crazy offshoot arguments when anyone criticizes someone, it seems. When in reality, the answer is a little fuzzier. Okoro is a guy who you continue to give minutes to, relative to his age and other (lack of) available options but the gap between him and a good NBA SG is pretty large. Can it narrow? Certainly....but he has a long way to go.

That was why I posted his quadrant chart. It puts in to perspective the type of player he is at this point and it shows which direction he needs to shift to become a more valuable guard archetype.

I'mWithDan said:

His data says he is a good defender. Saying things like elite or off the charts is hyperbole. For some reason it is irritating around here to simply say someone is just good at something.

He's a good defender who has utility. He's young and can theoretically improve on offense. He doesn't have leading indicators that there is a tier jump there but maybe he improves very marginally for several years in a row and we end up with a guy who exits liability stage or is on the verge at least.

We always have these crazy offshoot arguments when anyone criticizes someone, it seems. When in reality, the answer is a little fuzzier. Okoro is a guy who you continue to give minutes to, relative to his age and other (lack of) available options but the gap between him and a good NBA SG is pretty large. Can it narrow? Certainly....but he has a long way to go.

That was why I posted his quadrant chart. It puts in to perspective the type of player he is at this point and it shows which direction he needs to shift to become a more valuable guard archetype.

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I guess I would be closer to your assessment if I thought Okoro was just a good defender. I've seen him stymie too many really good players to think he is just ok. What are your statistical tools for determining whether the guy who takes the toughest assignment is a better defender than the guy who takes the easiest assignment? I mean if I guard a gleague guy and you guard Kyrie and I hold my guy scoreless but Kyrie scores on you, does that make me the better defender?

People tried to convince me that Varejao was a bad defender because his man routinely shot a good % at the rim, but I could see his man get dunks when he helped and no one rotated. The numbers, in that instance, weren't telling the whole story.

I think the reason we are talking past each other is that I think if he becomes average offensively that is going to make him a good 2 way player meaning an above average player. You would just consider him a replacement player in that instance.

BimboColesHair said:

I'm sorry, but why should I care about his rebounding numbers, as a guard, without knowing what he is being asked to do by the coaching staff?

Cause when I watch games it appears he is being asked to a) leak back and bust ass when a player on the Cavs who is not him shoots the ball to get the defense set and b) leak out when he is on the opposite side of the floor when a shot goes up on defense to potentially start a fast break. And those long rebounds are where guards get most of their RPG.

These things don't happen every play, more like 40 to 50% of each given game, but it's pretty easy to see why a guard being asked to defend the other teams best perimeter scoring threat isn't being placed into a position to rebound the ball if you, you know, watch the games.

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Dam shame baseball guy is bringing the fact, and you guys can’t see that, I totally understand what he saying there, we, us , whatever you want to call it , have no ideal what the coaches are asking him to do…..smh

cliffdawg said:

Dam shame baseball guy is bringing the fact, and you guys can’t see that, I totally understand what he saying there, we, us , whatever you want to call it , have no ideal what the coaches are asking him to do…..smh

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Hey man, baseball guys like basketball.

Basketball and golf are 1a and 1b 2nd sports for probably 80% of baseball people.

Heat Check said:

No backcourt defender is so "integral" that he simply has to play big minutes despite being a huge offensive liability. That's how much the league has changed. Okoro should never have been drafted at #5 due to his defense. That was a major, major blunder.

If Okoro had been drafted in the 2nd round, he wouldn't be starting.

What I meant with "certain assignments" was that he should be a situational stopper, a defensive equivalent to a "microwave scorer".

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Tony Allen. Doug Christie. Sasha Pavlovic. Alex Caruso. Marcus Smart.

Lock-down guard is absolutely a valuable role. Okoro is an excellent PoA defender that we can run at the top of the horn and has done a great job with that. His offensive game is still developing, but even if it doesn't progress much beyond where it is now, you can totally run Okoro as a starting 2 way guard who locks down the perimeter.

foucault87 said:

Sasha Pavlovic.

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The Human Q-Tip said:

If Okoro is a "huge offensive liability" after getting a reasonable amount of time to develop, fine. I don't think he's yet gotten that time, and I do think he shows enough offensive growth that it is worthwhile continuing to give him minutes. But exactly how productive does he need to be before his defense makes him playable as a starter?

Last years Finals saw three guys on the Bucks who scored 15ppg or more in the Finals. Suns had only two.

Year before that in the Finals, the Lakers and Heat both had two guys at 15ppg.

Year before that the Raptors had three, and GSW had two.

Every other starter for those six Finals teams was below 15ppg.

That's not exactly a high bar in terms of scoring to be good enough to be a starter on a Finals team. I think we're a long way from concluding that Okoro is doomed to be such a huge liability on offense that he must be moved to the bench.

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I agree, even if Okoro develops marginally as a shooter, that’s enough that he can’t be left open. It’s also enough to open up driving lanes for him.

If Mobley extends his range to outside the arc, which looks inevitable, I don’t see the problem with Okoro starting as a defensive stopper long-term.

Not everyone in your starting lineup needs to be capable of getting you 25 points any given night.