Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

Let's start with Tobias Myers... or should we call him Sonny Gray Jr?.. There are 32 posted youtube and twitter videos on him.. There are also about two dozen "scouting reports/sports stories" covering everything from soup to nuts.. a few items that pop/open my eyes..

1. Physical Prowess: He's incredibly athletic.. that is.. he repeats his delivery. over and over and over.. Not a big guy (neither is Sonny).. but more stocky than I would have though.. He's a shade under six foot.. and a shade over 2 bills.. Him and Eli Morgan will be able to argue over who is taller.. six feet nothing is still nothing..

2. His stuff: He has almost a laziness to his arm action up to the start of his movement toward the plate.. I.O.W., he can't be throwing that hard with that slow of a load.. but he does it.. The ball jumps out of his hand.. The ball seems to linger on it's way to home plate on the same plane/tunnel when he throws his change up. Late drive to the plate while keeping the ball hidden from the batter's view making it hard to pick up describes his deception..

3. Results.. the fastball is a heavy fastball.. the change up tumbles more that it fades.. and the breaking ball shows a power downer path.. What this all means is "..aint nobody gonna be hittin no fly balls off this guy...".. So, I looked at some stats.. sure enough it's that.. a lot of ground balls.. If he has a great defensive infield.. this will help this guy more than most..

Where would he rank in the Indians system?.. at this point.. I can't be sure.. I am a bit wary of durability.. We'll see in Spring Training.. or where the rubber meets the road..

Next up.. this Pilkington Punk...

Gson said:

Let's start with Tobias Myers... or should we call him Sonny Gray Jr?.. There are 32 posted youtube and twitter videos on him.. There are also about two dozen "scouting reports/sports stories" covering everything from soup to nuts.. a few items that pop/open my eyes..

1. Physical Prowess: He's incredibly athletic.. that is.. he repeats his delivery. over and over and over.. Not a big guy (neither is Sonny).. but more stocky than I would have though.. He's a shade under six foot.. and a shade over 2 bills.. Him and Eli Morgan will be able to argue over who is taller.. six feet nothing is still nothing..

2. His stuff: He has almost a laziness to his arm action up to the start of his movement toward the plate.. I.O.W., he can't be throwing that hard with that slow of a load.. but he does it.. The ball jumps out of his hand.. The ball seems to linger on it's way to home plate on the same plane/tunnel when he throws his change up. Late drive to the plate while keeping the ball hidden from the batter's view making it hard to pick up describes his deception..

3. Results.. the fastball is a heavy fastball.. the change up tumbles more that it fades.. and the breaking ball shows a power downer path.. What this all means is "..aint nobody gonna be hittin no fly balls off this guy...".. So, I looked at some stats.. sure enough it's that.. a lot of ground balls.. If he has a great defensive infield.. this will help this guy more than most..

Where would he rank in the Indians system?.. at this point.. I can't be sure.. I am a bit wary of durability.. We'll see in Spring Training.. or where the rubber meets the road..

Next up.. this Pilkington Punk...

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Keeping the ball out of the air isn't all he does. He also doesn't walk many(2.1 BB9) and he strikes out quite a few(11.2 SO9). He allowed 7.7 H9 in the 21 season between the 2 levels.

Not only is he athletic, but he's strong and durable. The 6'0" 193 lbs is a bit outdated. More recent checks have him at 6'1" and 200 lbs.

Here's the thing that probably excites me more than anything. He and the other 3(Battenfield, Allen and Pilkington) are close and they're posting numbers that indicate MLB success. How much success is to be determined, but we have a few guys that were pretty good at limiting walks and throwing strikes that turned out to be pretty decent.

@Gson while you're looking at video watch Tanner Burns and Logan T Allen too. It doesn't look like Burns could put much into the ball and then it jumps out of his hand like few I've seen. The Sonny Gray comp for him is very fitting IMO. Allen's slider is absolutely filthy.

When this is all done let's rank(1-5) all of Myers, Pilkington, Battenfield, Allen, and Burns and see what we get. Hell, there isn't anything else to talk about and arguing over which marginal OFer to trade for seems silly.

@sportscoach, @CATS44, and anybody else jump on in.

CDAV45 said:

@Gson while you're looking at video watch Tanner Burns and Logan T Allen too. It doesn't look like Burns could put much into the ball and then it jumps out of his hand like few I've seen. The Sonny Gray comp for him is very fitting IMO. Allen's slider is absolutely filthy.

When this is all done let's rank(1-5) all of Myers, Pilkington, Battenfield, Allen, and Burns and see what we get. Hell, there isn't anything else to talk about and arguing over which marginal OFer to trade for seems silly.

@sportscoach, @CATS44, and anybody else jump on in.

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I haven't sat around and gotten to watch Myers and Pilkington a ton yet... MLB.com essentially has them ranked Allen, Burns, Battenfield, Myers then Pilkington. They had Pilkington last because of his fastball. Allen, Burns, Myers, (also Morgan) all seem to come from that smaller mold that knows how to pitch while Battenfield and Pilkington have the size people like from a SP. I think all of them will make the pros, but I am leaning towards Allen having the best career

sportscoach said:

I haven't sat around and gotten to watch Myers and Pilkington a ton yet... MLB.com essentially has them ranked Allen, Burns, Battenfield, Myers then Pilkington. They had Pilkington last because of his fastball. Allen, Burns, Myers, (also Morgan) all seem to come from that smaller mold that knows how to pitch while Battenfield and Pilkington have the size people like from a SP. I think all of them will make the pros, but I am leaning towards Allen having the best career

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Choosing Allen to have the best career is easily understandable, but I don't know if there is a wrong choice here.

I wouldn't worry too much about Pilkington's FB. It sits 92-94 now and it was mid 90's in college. Unless I'm misunderstanding a more effective arm slot was discovered for him which actually helped his FB play up, but came with the loss of a couple of mph. Maybe someone like Bimbo can speak more to that. Of this group Pilkington had the highest walk rate in 21 of 3.5 BB9. Just ahead of him was Burns at 3.4.

At this point I would probably rank them Battenfield, Allen, Myers, Burns, and Pilkington. Regardless of how we rank them I think all 5 stand a good chance of having successful big league careers if they stay healthy.

@Gson @CATS44 @CDAV45

Prospect OF Lars Nootbaar of the Cardials has been in the latest rumors from online to be a target for the Guardians. What do you guys think?

sportscoach said:

@Gson @CATS44 @CDAV45

Prospect OF Lars Nootbaar of the Cardials has been in the latest rumors from online to be a target for the Guardians. What do you guys think?

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I'd prefer a RHH, but I've been checking Lars out for about a month or so. I think I even mentioned him somewhere on this forum. Anyway, I kind of like what I see from him. I might have posted a deal on the BTV sight that sent Plesac to St. Louis for Yepez and Nootbaar in some sort of package. He had a helluva season in AAA last year and then did even better in the AZFL. Count me in.

Sorry it was Civale. This deal not only has Nootbaar and Yepez, both of which would instantly help our lineup, it also includes McGreevey who not surprisingly would fit in nice with the 5 SP prospects we've been discussing. Rondon is a good wildcard too. I really like this deal.

Guardians 22​

Total Value: 22.70​

Cardinals 22​

Total Value: 21.60​

CDAV45 said:

I'd prefer a RHH, but I've been checking Lars out for about a month or so. I think I even mentioned him somewhere on this forum. Anyway, I kind of like what I see from him. I might have posted a deal on the BTV sight that sent Plesac to St. Louis for Yepez and Nootbaar in some sort of package. He had a helluva season in AAA last year and then did even better in the AZFL. Count me in.

Sorry it was Civale. This deal not only has Nootbaar and Yepez, both of which would instantly help our lineup, it also includes McGreevey who not surprisingly would fit in nice with the 5 SP prospects we've been discussing. Rondon is a good wildcard too. I really like this deal.

Guardians 22​

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availablility	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
McGreevey		Minors	RHP						9.7	7.8	9.7	11.6
Nootbaar	23	Majors	OF		Medium	6.0	13.6	6.6	7	5.6	7	8.4
Rondon		Minors	RHP						1.9	1.5	1.9	2.3
Yepez		Minors	1B						4.1	3.3	4.1	4.9

Total Value: 22.70​

Cardinals 22​

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availablility	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Civale	26	Majors	SP		Low	4.0	36.6	15.0	21.6	17.3	21.6	26

Total Value: 21.60​

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Idea on paper makes sense, but we aren't trading Civale... so make a deal with Plesac instead... Bimbo even kind of hinted at Plesac isn't finishing his contract in Cleveland more than likely, so if anyone is moved from the big league staff it will be Plesac. I personally won't look at the Civale deals since in real life, he will be one of the main cogs in Cleveland for a fair amount of years. He even could get a contract extension next season if he plays well this year.

sportscoach said:

Idea on paper makes sense, but we aren't trading Civale... so make a deal with Plesac instead... Bimbo even kind of hinted at Plesac isn't finishing his contract in Cleveland more than likely, so if anyone is moved from the big league staff it will be Plesac. I personally won't look at the Civale deals since in real life, he will be one of the main cogs in Cleveland for a fair amount of years. He even could get a contract extension next season if he plays well this year.

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That's fine with me. I like both Civale and Plesac equally, but to get something good you have to reciprocate that value. I think this trade could actually be in the realm of realistic. I'll post it over there and see what folks think.

Edited to say that CATS had mentioned that the Cardinals are unlikely to trade Yepez with the DH coming to the NL. The deal can be reworked to remove Yepez and maybe a separate deal with the Mets for Davis would work. If we could sneak Allan from them in the deal I would certainly do it. I like to hoard good SP prospects and adding Allan and McGreevey to this already deep system would make it even better.

For S&G's let's say 2 separate deals were consummated prior to the start of the 22 season. The first deal would send Plesac to the Cardinals for McGreevey, Nootbaar, and Baez(I'd settle for McGreevey and Nootbaar). The second deal would send Freeman and Karinchak to the Mets for Davis, Allan, and Vientos. We have confidence that both Davis and Nootbaar help the Guardians immediately. We also know that adding McGreevey and Allan to our minor league system makes it better and deeper. The wildcard would be Vientos who could start in Columbus and be there should Bradley falter or simply force his way on. In this situation we wouldn't have to count on him which is what some were concerned with yet he'd be available should he continue to mash.

CDAV45 said:

That's fine with me. I like both Civale and Plesac equally, but to get something good you have to reciprocate that value. I think this trade could actually be in the realm of realistic. I'll post it over there and see what folks think.

Edited to say that CATS had mentioned that the Cardinals are unlikely to trade Yepez with the DH coming to the NL. The deal can be reworked to remove Yepez and maybe a separate deal with the Mets for Davis would work. If we could sneak Allan from them in the deal I would certainly do it. I like to hoard good SP prospects and adding Allan and McGreevey to this already deep system would make it even better.

For S&G's let's say 2 separate deals were consummated prior to the start of the 22 season. The first deal would send Plesac to the Cardinals for McGreevey, Nootbaar, and Baez(I'd settle for McGreevey and Nootbaar). The second deal would send Freeman and Karinchak to the Mets for Davis, Allan, and Vientos. We have confidence that both Davis and Nootbaar help the Guardians immediately. We also know that adding McGreevey and Allan to our minor league system makes it better and deeper. The wildcard would be Vientos who could start in Columbus and be there should Bradley falter or simply force his way on. In this situation we wouldn't have to count on him which is what some were concerned with yet he'd be available should he continue to mash.

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First deal is something I can mostly get behind in a sense. Though that being stated, not getting a guy who isn't MLB proven isn't ideal at the end of the day.
Karinchak honestly can't go anywhere unless we feel he won't get back to what could be considered his pre-sticky days... we don't have the bullpen talent right now to trade him, plus I wouldn't move Freeman for those three let alone add in Karinchak. I am not moving Freeman unless we get a Reynolds type back. I have really high hopes for him and think he will be a Dj LeMahieu type.

CDAV45 said:

Keeping the ball out of the air isn't all he does. He also doesn't walk many(2.1 BB9) and he strikes out quite a few(11.2 SO9). He allowed 7.7 H9 in the 21 season between the 2 levels.

Not only is he athletic, but he's strong and durable. The 6'0" 193 lbs is a bit outdated. More recent checks have him at 6'1" and 200 lbs.

Here's the thing that probably excites me more than anything. He and the other 3(Battenfield, Allen and Pilkington) are close and they're posting numbers that indicate MLB success. How much success is to be determined, but we have a few guys that were pretty good at limiting walks and throwing strikes that turned out to be pretty decent.

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we'll diverge again..

Numbers.. especially minor league numbers have to be looked at with a bit of a jaundiced eye.. Sure, they're important..but what does his arm action look like.. does he repeat his delivery.. does he tip his pitches / change his motion when he's throwing a FB versus a change up or breaking ball.. Professional hitters are SO good at seeing changes by a pitcher that even the slightest variation can be devastating to their effectiveness..

The most important numbers that come from the minor leagues are, easily..., that he has numbers.. good or bad.. he's on the hill.. Good would be better.. and a progression even better...

On the hill for: ROK/Short Season/A-/A/A+/AA/AAA = IP's 30/50/70/100/120/140/140+..., respectively..
K Rate: stable; his K-rate stays basically the same or slightly rises as he rises through the MiLB system..
BB Rate: Reducing, but not eliminating.. this is the time to learn to throw on the plate = the definition of command.
Pitches per AB: stable in the lower minors and reducing as he climbs the minor league system
Pitch Sequencing: 35-60 % FB followed with an even mix of secondaries..

The effort in the delivery is also a huge key.. guys who sell out with effort.. are an injury waiting to happen.. Pitchers need to be like golfers.. they have to do their best work when their effort is in the 80 - 85 % range.. This last item..is what has me wary about Myers..

I'll get to the other guys.. but, my first pass at Myers.. he's worth looking at further, no doubt.. clearly more development is needed..

A few thoughts that I will add to later....

Its not that StL won't trade Yepez, its that IMO they will want more in return than we think.

********

Nootbaar is LH, and isn't a fit for our situation. He's more of what we have. Anyway, StL wouldn't trade both Yepez and Nootbaar, their two top candidates for DH.

******

Folks keep proposing trades that include Plesac or Civale. Without a viable #6 SP that is more than emergency filler, the FO isn't gonna trade either before the season...unless the return in immediate upgrade is overwhelming, or a real MLB SP is part of the return.

(If we trade with the DBacks for a package including Carson Kelly, and received Merrill Kelly in return.)

The FO trades SPs at the deadline, when they have SP prospects that are truly ready to step in immediately and produce. Salary dumps...Kluber and Cookie...dont count, as none of our SPs have a high salary right now. When we traded Bauer and Clevinger, we already had replacements. We don't yet have a Bieber, Plesac, Civale to take over a rotation spot, but we should have by the deadline.

Besides, if the FO and Tito learned anything from last season, its that the adage that you can't have enough pitching holds true, even for a pitching factory like Cleveland.

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I'm not sure I could even speculate on which SP prospect will have the best career. I like them all, excepting Morgan. But I am also pessimistic about them all, because of the failure rate of even the best pitching prospects. Its the sheer volume of upper level SP prospects that is reason for real optimism.

If only two of them produce above average at the MLB level...and do it quickly...weve hit the jackpot. And I think as a minimum, thats likely.

CATS44 said:

A few thoughts that I will add to later....

Its not that StL won't trade Yepez, its that IMO they will want more in return than we think.

********

Nootbaar is LH, and isn't a fit for our situation. He's more of what we have. Anyway, StL wouldn't trade both Yepez and Nootbaar, their two top candidates for DH.

******

Folks keep proposing trades that include Plesac or Civale. Without a viable #6 SP that is more than emergency filler, the FO isn't gonna trade either before the season...unless the return in immediate upgrade is overwhelming, or a real MLB SP is part of the return.

(If we trade with the DBacks for a package including Carson Kelly, and received Merrill Kelly in return.)

The FO trades SPs at the deadline, when they have SP prospects that are truly ready to step in immediately and produce. Salary dumps...Kluber and Cookie...dont count, as none of our SPs have a high salary right now. When we traded Bauer and Clevinger, we already had replacements. We don't yet have a Bieber, Plesac, Civale to take over a rotation spot, but we should have by the deadline.

Besides, if the FO and Tito learned anything from last season, its that the adage that you can't have enough pitching holds true, even for a pitching factory like Cleveland.

**********

I'm not sure I could even speculate on which SP prospect will have the best career. I like them all, excepting Morgan. But I am also pessimistic about them all, because of the failure rate of even the best pitching prospects. Its the sheer volume of upper level SP prospects that is reason for real optimism.

If only two of them produce above average at the MLB level...and do it quickly...weve hit the jackpot. And I think as a minimum, thats likely.

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You know Allen, Burns and Myers are the same size as Morgan so if you judge on height alone, those three aren't viable MLB starters... Also you are way underrating Morgan since he would be in the starting rotation on a lot of MLB rosters...

If we trade Plesac it's because they got a good enough offer to help the team while they felt the other guys could replace him/the organization had enough of him. He has gotten himself in some minor trouble with the organization like Clev did so they will listen on him in deals but his price won't be low...

Morgan is 5-10.

Allen, Myers, and Burns are all 6-0.

Torres is 6-1.

Espino is 6-2.

Pilkington is 6-3.

The rest are at least 6-4.

Again, I'm waiting for a list of current productive SPs that are under 6-0.

I found one...Valdez....in the AL, and he is 235 pounds.

If other GMs value Morgan as a true rotation piece, he should be the first one the FO is looking to trade. Viable SP...three years at the minimum...six years of control.

But he isn't. He is a AAAA SP who can be optioned for two more years.

*****

There is nobody that can reasonably be expected to equal Plesacs quality at the start of the season, unless the FO still views Allen sr as legit. IF they look at 2021 as an injury marred aberration for Allen, then they might be interested in trading Plesac now.

Plesacs cost would be high, and would include overwhelming MLB production, not prospects, as the centerpiece. We are talking significant upgrade for at least three years.

One of the bigger names that have been bantered around on this thread.

I do not believe that Plesac will be around for his full four years of control. I also doubt that he will be extended. But I highly doubt that he will be traded while he is still inexpensive....unless the immediate return is nearly ridiculous.

Four years of Plesac is worth more than 2.5 years of Clevinger or 1.5 years of Bauer. So look at the return for either of them as a starting point...and trade out the prospects they brought back for MLB production.

CATS44 said:

Morgan is 5-10.

Allen, Myers, and Burns are all 6-0.

Torres is 6-1.

Espino is 6-2.

Pilkington is 6-3.

The rest are at least 6-4.

Again, I'm waiting for a list of current productive SPs that are under 6-0.

I found one...Valdez....in the AL, and he is 235 pounds.

If other GMs value Morgan as a true rotation piece, he should be the first one the FO is looking to trade. Viable SP...three years at the minimum...six years of control.

But he isn't. He is a AAAA SP who can be optioned for two more years.

*****

There is nobody that can reasonably be expected to equal Plesacs quality at the start of the season, unless the FO still views Allen sr as legit. IF they look at 2021 as an injury marred aberration for Allen, then they might be interested in trading Plesac now.

Plesacs cost would be high, and would include overwhelming MLB production, not prospects, as the centerpiece. We are talking significant upgrade for at least three years.

One of the bigger names that have been bantered around on this thread.

I do not believe that Plesac will be around for his full four years of control. I also doubt that he will be extended. But I highly doubt that he will be traded while he is still inexpensive....unless the immediate return is nearly ridiculous.

Four years of Plesac is worth more than 2.5 years of Clevinger or 1.5 years of Bauer. So look at the return for either of them as a starting point...and trade out the prospects they brought back for MLB production.

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Size doesn't matter as much as you are saying though. Hickman is what 6'6 throwing 90 when we drafted him... yes it helps but it's not a perfect way to tell how hard someone throw. Burns is ten lbs lighter and two inches taller but has hit 97...


Jensen Lewis had a nice breakdown of Morgans changeup. It is nasty and one of the best in baseball. His fastball is about 90 and he pitches the changeup from the same arms speed and angle and throw it 75 area. His fastball also has good movement on it as well and on most occasions both of these pitches can be throw for a strike. The problem is he has only those two pitches working consistently for him. He has to find another pitch. He had a 4.37 ERA over his last 13 starts with really only two true pitches. Find something to mix in there that he can command that has a different movement and speed than those two pitches, he will be a number 4 starter in MLB.

Maddux never threw above 90, it was how he mixed pitches and movements on then that got him a great career. I am not saying Morgan will ever be that great, but as I said the other day Kluber learned a new pitch after making it to the pros and that's what made him an All-star. Until we see if he improves his slider/develops another pitch, we cannot rule him out as a 5th starter. Plus even if he doesn't make it as a SP, he for sure can make it as a swing man in MLB cause of that nasty fastball-changeup combo.

Plus another thing I feel is a no doubter is the fact Cash of Tampa would love to have Morgan... Morgan doesn't need to throw a lot of pitchers when he is on to get through innings. His issue is the fact players just have to look for the fastball or changeup and effectively spit on anything else in a sense. Tampa uses the opener/follower system a lot and honestly Morgan is perfect for that right now especially following a lefty since lefties struggle a ton with his changeup...