Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

buzzdog said:

Exactly. And I don't think the young man is either stupid or delusional. The question is, is that offer actually on the table?

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I don't know for sure, but I strongly suspect the offer for a 3 year deal is closer to $40Mil than $50Mil right now.

But after Garland just got Max, the issue might not be money as much as ego and self worth. That's a trickier situation to resolve.

CavsKermit said:

First off, I'll be very surprised if Sexton plays on the Q.O. because it would be very difficult for him to improve his market in the role he'd like have here. The reporting is the Cavs last, best offer was 3 years at $51M which equates to almost $17M per. So far anyway, no other team has come close to matching that offer, let alone beating it. I think the timing sucks for Sexton given his injury, but things can always get worse from the player's perspective. Just ask Dennis Schroeder. Sexton wanting more money, and Sexton finding a team willing to offer more money, either as restricted or unrestricted free agent, are two very different things.

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If that is the offer, I would be repealing it if I’m Altman.

The market has spoken; don’t negotiate against yourself. Take the offer off the table, or lower it.

Then see what Rich Paul wants to do.

Also worth noting that basically everything in the league is on hold now.... I assume that not much will happen across the league until the Durant/Irving/Westbrook situations are resolved.

From Sexton's perspective now - maybe there aren't offers you like -- but there are a bunch of $100M trades about to go down, and who knows what team will have cap room and the need for a scorer once the rubble settles.

It reminds me of some of the Lebron FA years, where basically nothing in the league happened until the superstars decided what they are doing.

CavsKermit said:

Just ask Dennis Schroeder.

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Talking about making a major Blunder and betting on yourself……This guy

Always take the money. If you’re so great you’ll prove it on the new contract and then you can get maxed. Playing on the QO seems insane.

Wasn't the 3/51 really what they were offering last year? I'd agree that an offer is likely closer to $40M for three years at this point. That could give them some space next year - but only around $20-23M. Do you spend it or save space for the likely spike in 2025? Negative is Mobley will be due for an extension ahead of that - meaning he may want to wait an extra year to sign due to the spike.

mds said:

Always take the money. If you’re so great you’ll prove it on the new contract and then you can get maxed. Playing on the QO seems insane.

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It's a huge risk. $8.5 guaranteed versus $40-50M guaranteed AND becoming a free agent when the cap is set to spike to $175M.

People are forgetting that there is also injury insurance for things like this....

If taking the QO gives him a good chance of getting 3yr/$60M ($67.5M total) next year, he's not just going to take a 4yr/$50M this year.

Lyuokdea said:

People are forgetting that there is also injury insurance for things like this....

If taking the QO gives him a good chance of getting 3yr/$60M ($67.5M total) next year, he's not just going to take a 4yr/$50M this year.

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No one knows what his market will be next season. But if he signs the QO he has to make sure he performs at a high level coming off an injury which is hard to do. You never what can happen he could even end up benched if he keeps playing hero ball instead of trying to fit within the system. He could go from 3/50 or what ever the current offer is to signing a prove it deal and then never getting a decent contract.

To me if you take $8mil and blow out your knee and you’re done you’ve got $8mil, which is great, but better to cover your ass with the $40-$50mil contract and if you fucking kill it you’ll make more next time. Just take as much money as you can.

Lyuokdea said:

People are forgetting that there is also injury insurance for things like this....

If taking the QO gives him a good chance of getting 3yr/$60M ($67.5M total) next year, he's not just going to take a 4yr/$50M this year.

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I don't think anyone was saying that Sexton is likely to take a 4 year, $50Mil contract.

Lowest I see him going is 3 year, $45 Mil, and that's pretty comparable to what you describe.


Pretty sure injury insurance does not cover contracts you were never offered because of an injury. How would you actualize that?

There is a thing called "lost income insurance", but that just keeps you at or near what you currently earn.

Unless the Cavs are lowballing the fuck out of him, Collin would be nuts to settle for the QO when he's already coming off of a pretty significant knee injury that wiped out nearly an entire season. Sure, the idea of being on oneself could be an admirable one, but at this stage of his career, securing a medium-sized bag is life-changing.

I feel for the guy because the offseason so far has been close to a worst-case scenario for him, but if he can show in the next 2-3 years that he's a good as he thinks he can be, he will be handsomely rewarded. I'm certainly rooting for him.

Having Sexton play on the QO is bad for both sides. Sexton should want to lock up money for at least a couple years because of his injury. The Cavs want to maintain Sexton's value just in case they want to trade him. Playing on the QO doesn't allow a trading team to get Sexton's full bird rights, that limits their ability to keep him and that limits his value.

NMCav said:

No one knows what his market will be next season. But if he signs the QO he has to make sure he performs at a high level coming off an injury which is hard to do. You never what can happen he could even end up benched if he keeps playing hero ball instead of trying to fit within the system. He could go from 3/50 or what ever the current offer is to signing a prove it deal and then never getting a decent contract.

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Right -- I just mean there is an insurance company that is probably willing to gamble on that.

Like, if we offered him 4yr $30 million -- there is definitely a guy who will guarantee him $50M in exchange for a 20% cut of whatever his next contract is.

Douglar said:

Seems about right to me. But that hasn't happened yet, so I have to guess that Sexton's camp is still looking for a payday over $17Mil.

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Perhaps. Or maybe he sees other teams as better opportunities to shine such that he'd be ok with a smaller contract compared to the projected role he is expecting in CLE? Maybe he and DAL could've agreed to 2 yrs $30 mil with a player option so he could hit UFA sooner, but Koby wasn't satisfied with what he would get back for Collin?

Douglar said:

So basically, a team could give Sexton a S&T contract starting at $20mil if the Cavs take back a $15Mil contract and send Osman or Windler with a decent second round pick to a 3rd team with cap space.

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Technically, if Collin's camp could find a S&T trade destination that will not be going over the tax line, then both sides can take in $5 mil more than they send out, so if Sexton gets $20 mil, CLE could take back $15 mil and no third team would be necessary.

Douglar said:

What would the Cavs want in return? 3&D? Backup PG? Versatile wing? Dead salary with some sweet draft picks?

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With DAL, I was assuming some salary filler that may get some minutes (a la Taurean Prince two seasons ago) and a protected FRP. I'm not sure how much better than that we can realistically expect. As a point of reference, the Bulls got Derrick Jones Jr and POR's FRP lotto protected through 2028 in the Lauri S&T.