2022 Season | Series #43 | Guardians @ Royals | Sep. 5-7, 2022

So for those keeping eye on difficulty levels, we now have the hardest SOS followed by the Twins with Sox as easiest (.474,.469,.453). Sox also have the least amount of games against the three of us (10, Twins 14, us 12) - as we beat each other up. Luckily, we have the advantage of home games ( Us - 18, Twins 12, Sox - 11) but Sox are better on the road (35-32, 34-36) anyway. And Sox have their starters all back now but pen is a mess and Angerson still out (but they have dealt with injuries all season).

Playoff changes - Espn - 48% 538 -57% FanGraph - 48% BR - 47%

We need some bats to come alive ... 1 run vs KC isn't going to do much for the playoff run let alone the playoffs. Kwan and Ramirez having 0 hits isn't going to win many games (Kwan .216 in last 14 days, Ramirez is .204). All cylinders need to be firing. Worse yet 18 games in 17 days with injuries to Civale and Plesac and lack luster hitting to begin with will not help us.

Sox having a Monday off until the last week will help them and make them possibly our strongest competition.

thestatman said:

Gonna tee it up 8 times against the Twins over the next 11 days. Split those 8 and this team is in a really good place. Ace in the hole is playing these Royals 6 times at home closing the season.

Best thing about tonight was what Morris did in only his second start. Innings 2-4 showed how he dominated triple A. I just hope moving forward he can stay healthy, which he has not been able to do.

Click to expand...

Yep, once he got through the first inning (thanks to a great throw by Maile to get him one of the outs) he settled down, found the feel of his breaking stuff, and sailed through the next three innings. Four scoreless innings on 61 pitches. Very nice, even if against a weak offense.

I'm looking forward to seeing if he can have a similar start (but with 75 pitches) next Tuesday against the Angels.

petes999 said:

So for those keeping eye on difficulty levels, we now have the hardest SOS followed by the Twins with Sox as easiest (.474,.469,.453). Sox also have the least amount of games against the three of us (10, Twins 14, us 12) - as we beat each other up. Luckily, we have the advantage of home games ( Us - 18, Twins 12, Sox - 11) but Sox are better on the road (35-32, 34-36) anyway. And Sox have their starters all back now but pen is a mess and Angerson still out (but they have dealt with injuries all season).

Playoff changes - Espn - 48% 538 -57% FanGraph - 48% BR - 47%

We need some bats to come alive ... 1 run vs KC isn't going to do much for the playoff run let alone the playoffs. Kwan and Ramirez having 0 hits isn't going to win many games (Kwan .216 in last 14 days, Ramirez is .204). All cylinders need to be firing. Worse yet 18 games in 17 days with injuries to Civale and Plesac and lack luster hitting to begin with will not help us.

Sox having a Monday off until the last week will help them and make them possibly our strongest competition.

Click to expand...

The Twins' bullpen had to pitch 10.1 innings in yesterday's double-header that ended up going 20.5 innings. They have a game tonight (we're off) and hopefully Gray gets knocked out early. Their pen could be fried by the time this series kicks off Friday night.

I don't see the strength of schedule being significant (.474 to .469) but the difference in home games is pretty big, IMO. After our series against the Twins this weekend we will have 18 home games remaining and they will have 9 and the White Sox 11. So if Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill can get us two wins this weekend we'll be up 2.5 to 3.5 games on the Twins (depending on their game tonight) with double the remaining home games. Heck, even if we just get one win this weekend we'll be up by at least 0.5 games.

Slept on it. Still salty.

OPS last two weeks....

Kwan......548
Amed......456
JRam......597
Naylor.....588
OGonz....567
Andres....692
Straw......410
Hedges...680
Maile......192
Miller.......530
Freeman...640
Palacios...607
Benson....596
Clement has only one PA, but for the season its .491.

The team OPS is .557. Weve averaged 2.07 runs in that span.

Not one batter is producing...not one.

No amount of personnel changes, no amount of lineup shuffling, will fix the problem....when you have an entire roster that is not hitting.

I dont think I've ever seen an entire roster do this before. It isnt that these guys aren't good enough. The core players have all produced before.

Every indication points to this team having run out of gas offensively.

Next to major health issues, it was my greatest question.

'I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.'

CATS44 said:

OPS last two weeks....

The team OPS is .557. Weve averaged 2.07 runs in that span.

Not one batter is producing...not one.

No amount of personnel changes, no amount of lineup shuffling, will fix the problem....when you have an entire roster that is not hitting.

I dont think I've ever seen an entire roster do this before. It isnt that these guys aren't good enough. The core players have all produced before.

Every indication points to this team having run out of gas offensively.

Next to major health issues, it was my greatest question.

'I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.'

Click to expand...

Uh, just last year? This club set a record for getting no hit and shut out.

macbdog said:

Uh, just last year? This club set a record for getting no hit and shut out.

Click to expand...

Thats true...but I'm talking about a two week period in which not one batter produced at all.

We have NO batter over the last two weeks that has put up a .700 OPS.

That is incomprehensible.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

The Twins' bullpen had to pitch 10.1 innings in yesterday's double-header that ended up going 20.5 innings. They have a game tonight (we're off) and hopefully Gray gets knocked out early. Their pen could be fried by the time this series kicks off Friday night.

I don't see the strength of schedule being significant (.474 to .469) but the difference in home games is pretty big, IMO. After our series against the Twins this weekend we will have 18 home games remaining and they will have 9 and the White Sox 11. So if Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill can get us two wins this weekend we'll be up 2.5 to 3.5 games on the Twins (depending on their game tonight) with double the remaining home games. Heck, even if we just get one win this weekend we'll be up by at least 0.5 games.

Click to expand...

I agree that SOS won't matter much even with the .02 spread between us and Chicago (.02 x 27 games is .54 of a win difference in Chicago favor). Us and Minn difference of .005 is relatively meaningless.

But, even the home-road difference isn't that much difference. May seem like a big deal but our home vs road win percentage isn't a big difference -- our home win % is .0099 better than on the road. Minn has is much bigger at .155 better at home. Chicago is reverse (better on road) so -.0366.

So our 9 more home game (than away) advantage is .09 game difference - not a big deal when you look at our record. Minni on road for 3 games more games than at home at home is equivalent to .465 less expected win (as they are worse on the road). But, Chicago playing better on the road, so 3 less games at home actually increases their expected win % by .11 of a game - not a big difference.

Thus, in my mind as stated, our lack of hitting and 18 games in 17 days (when we are blaming our long season on our lack of hitting) is the biggest difference (versus Chicago getting regular days off). But, then again, before this lack of hitting vs Seattle and Baltimore at home and now in KC, we had 3 off days in 12 days so should have been fine.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

The Twins' bullpen had to pitch 10.1 innings in yesterday's double-header that ended up going 20.5 innings. They have a game tonight (we're off) and hopefully Gray gets knocked out early. Their pen could be fried by the time this series kicks off Friday night.

I don't see the strength of schedule being significant (.474 to .469) but the difference in home games is pretty big, IMO. After our series against the Twins this weekend we will have 18 home games remaining and they will have 9 and the White Sox 11. So if Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill can get us two wins this weekend we'll be up 2.5 to 3.5 games on the Twins (depending on their game tonight) with double the remaining home games. Heck, even if we just get one win this weekend we'll be up by at least 0.5 games.

Click to expand...

to be sure, gray si pretty much a six inning pitcher - can be sure of seeing the twins bullpen tonight

One thing to consider is that we are included in both Chicago's and Minnesota's SOS.

Therefore, SOS based upon winning percentages skew the whole thing.

Chicago gets credited for a more difficult SOS when playing us than we get for playing them.

*******

The schedules outside of head to head are really what count....and the fact that we are ahead in the loss column.

*********

If home and away winning percentages hold up the rest of the way...which is more of a mathematical exercise than anything else...the schedule is a huge advantage to us and a big disadvantage to Minnesota. As the season winds down, any advantage in the loss column becomes more important.

We would end up with 84 wins.

Minnesota with 81.

Chicago with 80.

we're currently on a 5 game losing streak at home ---- so, if we play a really bad team at home we have a slight advantage - maybe take 4 of 6 v kc to end the season

CATS44 said:

OPS last two weeks....

Kwan......548
Amed......456
JRam......597
Naylor.....588
OGonz....567
Andres....692
Straw......410
Hedges...680
Maile......192
Miller.......530
Freeman...640
Palacios...607
Benson....596
Clement has only one PA, but for the season its .491.

The team OPS is .557. Weve averaged 2.07 runs in that span.

Not one batter is producing...not one.

No amount of personnel changes, no amount of lineup shuffling, will fix the problem....when you have an entire roster that is not hitting.

I dont think I've ever seen an entire roster do this before. It isnt that these guys aren't good enough. The core players have all produced before.

Every indication points to this team having run out of gas offensively.

Next to major health issues, it was my greatest question.

'I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.'

Click to expand...

I think having 3 guys in the line-up every night, who can’t hit AT ALL, puts too much pressure on the 6 guys who usually CAN hit. It was negligent for the front office to not only fail to add another bat, but to also succeed in losing a bat without compensation.

Twins hang on to beat Yankees 4-3.

KilgoreTrout said:

I think having 3 guys in the line-up every night, who can’t hit AT ALL, puts too much pressure on the 6 guys who usually CAN hit. It was negligent for the front office to not only fail to add another bat, but to also succeed in losing a bat without compensation.

Click to expand...

CA stated prior to the season starting that this season would be one of finding out if some of these prospects can hack it. That’s exactly what they’ve done so not making any big trade(s) that would make it more difficult to find opportunities for these kids makes sense to me. This was never going to be an “all in” season. Hell, it’s been hard enough to get guys looks as it is.