CBBI
Super Chill Mode
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"Second contract with original team" is a pretty rough metric to go by. If I had all the data, that isn't the column I'd choose to use.
"More than X number of starts" might be a good one. Just having a second contract at all might be good too--after all, if you go get a massive contract in free agency, why should that be deemed not a success?
Anecdotally, I think most draft classes have a ton of talent at the top of the second round. Picks 33-40 are usually some of my favorite guys. It's all emotion and no data, but I'd be hard pressed to agree that top of round 2 guys aren't significantly different than round 3-4 guys.
It also needs to take position into account. I can probably find a starting interior offensive lineman in rounds 3-4. I probably can't find a starting tackle, QB, WR, etc.
I think the sense is that the vast majority of players who get a 2nd contract (especially a multi-year contract) with their original team are more often then not very valued players as teams league-wide tend to retain their very best guys. Sure there's plenty of free agency movement year-by-year, but teams generally don't let their very best guys go unless they have no choice.
Whereas players who get second contracts with another team are not always in the same boat.
Let's use the Browns roster as an example...
2nd contract from original team
Watson (later traded), Chubb, Njoku, Bitonio, Cooper (traded before end of rookie contract) Teller (traded before end of rookie contract), Garrett, Ward, Takitaki
2nd contract from another team
Conklin, Pocic, Tomlinson, Okoronkwo, Walker, Thornhill, Akins, Grant, Dobbs
Edited: moved Cooper to group 1 since he was traded before his rookie contract ended and played 1.5 seasons for Dallas before signing an extension.
I haven't given every single team in the NFL the same look, but I'd say it's pretty obvious group 1 is a lot stronger than group 2. Wouldn't shock me if that was the case league wide.
2nd contract with original team seems like a pretty reasonable barometer for a successful draft pick.
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