2012-2013 Hollinger player profiles are up

[Jon]

Hmmm...so completely ignoring similar players, i'm going to attempt to predict Kyrie's stats for next season.

His field goal percentage, 3 point percentage, and 3 point percentage all dropped considerably from his college numbers, and his defense sure didn't get any better. I conclude that Kyrie's over the hill, and the best we can expect for next season is about 42/35/80 splits with horrific defense and more turnovers. He might last one more season after that, but his production is tailing off so quickly that I wouldn't count on it...expect him to retire after his second season at the ripe old age of 21.

If you were trying to draw a trend line to guestimate Kyrie's future NBA performance, why would you start with his NCAA performance?

 

[Hydroponic3385]

To be fair, Rubio was an elite defender right out of the gate

To be fairer, he played professional ball in Europe for a few years. Plus, while Rubio was certainly a good defender, I wouldn't quite call him elite yet.

 

[Nathan S]

If you were trying to draw a trend line to guestimate Kyrie's future NBA performance, why would you start with his NCAA performance?

Hmmm? What else should I use? I can't do a whole lot with just one data point (his first NBA season). Should I just cop out and not make a prediction at all? I can look more closely at his one NBA season and say "Well, he got injured and his number dropped off precipitously at the end of the season, so clearly this shows that he will get injured ever more frequently, and his production will continue to dwindle." I'm not sure how, without being completely subjective, you can make any meaningful predictions about how Kyrie will develop without looking at other players. At some level, every prediction you make about a player has to depend on knowledge of how similar players performed in the past. With such a wealth of relevant information at our fingertips, it would be foolish of us not to take advantage of it.

As for Rubio, Hollinger says the following (I hate to lean on Hollinger quotes, but he's usually pretty objective):

"Lost in all the hubbub is Rubio's secret strength -- the highlight-reel passes are nice and all, but his elite defense is the true difference-maker for this team. Rubio ranked fourth among point guards in steals per minute and excelled at drawing charges; between his unusual length for a point guard and his quick feet, he was immediately among the best defenders in the league. Thanks to his efforts, the Wolves gave up 7.3 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court."

I'll admit he's an outlier, and his spanish league experience probably helped him, but it does show that it's very possible to be a good NBA defender, even at the point, even without NBA experience.

 

[Jon]

Should I just cop out and not make a prediction at all?

Why not? It worked for Socrates...

"I know one thing, that I know nothing"

We've put men on the moon because we know how to measure error and tolerances in our calculations. We don't just point the rocket in the right direction and cross our fingers.

 

[Nathan S]

Ah yes, Socrates. Such a respected name in the field of basketball analytics. The whole business of the NBA is centered around predicting how good players and teams will be. If you think that predictions must be precise on the order of rocket science to be of any use, you'll find yourself in a very small minority.

 

[Stark]

Rubio and Irving play different styles of ball.

Now note that I haven't seen Rubio play a ton, but I'd call him a better defensive version of Nash, or maybe comparable to Stockton on how he plays. Not saying he's as good as them, but that's how I noticed he plays.

Irving on the other hand reminds me of Chris Paul or Isaiah Thomas, once again, he's not as good as either, yet, but they play similar styles from what I've seen.

There shouldn't be a Rubio v. Irving debate, because even though they play the same position, their styles of play are almost opposite of each other.

 

[Jon]

Ah yes, Socrates. Such a respected name in the field of basketball analytics.

Contrary to popular belief, John Hollinger didn't invent rational thought.

The whole business of the NBA is centered around predicting how good players and teams will be.

NBA scouting is still primarily based on observation and experience, not on stat projections.

If you think that predictions must be precise on the order of rocket science to be of any use, you'll find yourself in a very small minority.

Predictions on a fan board are never of use. The only thing with any potential value is the reasoning that went in to the prediction.

 

[Nathan S]

Contrary to popular belief, John Hollinger didn't invent rational thought.



NBA scouting is still primarily based on observation and experience, not on stat projections.



Predictions on a fan board are never of use. The only thing with any potential value is the reasoning that went in to the prediction.

Well then, I will counter with the immortal words of Galileo!

"The book of nature is written in the language of mathematics"

And I don't particularly care what scouting is based on. I care about the purpose of scouting, which is to predict how good a player will be.

Is this disagreement about the validity of predictions in general? Or about the reasoning behind my predictions in particular? If it is about my predictions in particular, you should be arguing against my reasoning, not arguing against the fact that i'm making predictions.

 

[Jon]

Is this disagreement about the validity of predictions in general? Or about the reasoning behind my predictions in particular? If it is about my predictions in particular, you should be arguing against my reasoning, not arguing against the fact that i'm making predictions.

A prediction is only as good as the reasoning behind it. That's why I keep pushing you to examine your reasoning and improve it. If you don't want to, that's fine, but then it's no longer reasoning ... just an opinion.

 

[Pioneer10]

To be fairer, he played professional ball in Europe for a few years. Plus, while Rubio was certainly a good defender, I wouldn't quite call him elite yet.

Don't know how well he'll do after the ACL but the way Twolves defense collapsed after his injury was certainly indicative of him being an elite defender. Defenses collapse like that when you lose a big man defender who protects the rim and not when your PG goes down

 

[Nathan S]

A prediction is only as good as the reasoning behind it. That's why I keep pushing you to examine your reasoning and improve it. If you don't want to, that's fine, but then it's no longer reasoning ... just an opinion.

Then, as I said, if you don't like the reasoning behind my predictions, you should try to point out flaws in my reasoning. As is evident even in this thread, people often do find flaws in my reasoning, and I'm always happy to own up to my mistakes and revise my hypotheses accordingly.

 

[Jon]

Then, as I said, if you don't like the reasoning behind my predictions, you should try to point out flaws in my reasoning. As is evident even in this thread, people often do find flaws in my reasoning, and I'm always happy to own up to my mistakes and revise my hypotheses accordingly.

I have multiple times, re-read my comments if you missed it, and let's move on.

I do expect Kyrie to improve on defense, because he showed the ability to improve his D over the course of his rookie season. He'll also have a full training camp to learn the defensive schemes. Alas, I think there are also legitimate concerns with Byron Scott's ability to coach team defense.

We had a very good system in place under Mike Brown, and for some reason Byron felt the need to mess with it, and so far it's been for the worse. Byron prides himself on running his players hard, and he promised it was to build them up to the point they could run constantly, give full effort, and wear down opponents ... but so far the only clear result of this is an increase in our pace.

Byron is putting a lot of pressure on Kyrie to improve his ability to fight through screens and stay in front of his man. Mike would have found other ways to help him out. So Kyrie is in effect in a crucible, where he may very well come out of it as an improved man to man defender ... or he might get crushed under the expectations.

 

[Tornicade]

Last year Irving came out and played to his strengths. those are pretty spectacular. the roles of floor manager, man to man and help defense are not his strengths. its not a matter of if he improves in those area its about how much once he starts focusing on them. Weve seen mediocre defenders like Gibson and a few others dramatically improve their defense going from one off season to another.

Im fairly confident that the area of improvement we see this year for Irving will be as a floor general as a passer. Irving will naturally be abe to recognize passing lanes and more familiar with his teammates on where to get them the ball on the court. His teammates will also be more familiar with irving and will have a better idea when Irving is looking to pass.

defensively.Irving may look a bit more competent this year but I dont expect the big jump from eye rolling to awesome.. I think that will come later when he makes it a complete focus for an offseason or maybe a full season of going against Dion in practice.

 

[KeyzerSozee]

A bit surprised there's been 5 pages of convo and still Kyrie's defense is at issue? I hope someone at this point has said- at this level Defense is primarily based on will and effort. Kyrie obviously has the athletic talent. Lebron always could be a great defender, now he CHOSE to be.

I am pretty sure that given the need and opportunity, Kyrie will be moving up. Is there even any such thing as a lock down PG defender? I don't think that is what we want.

 

[Pioneer10]

A bit surprised there's been 5 pages of convo and still Kyrie's defense is at issue? I hope someone at this point has said- at this level Defense is primarily based on will and effort. Kyrie obviously has the athletic talent. Lebron always could be a great defender, now he CHOSE to be.

I am pretty sure that given the need and opportunity, Kyrie will be moving up. Is there even any such thing as a lock down PG defender? I don't think that is what we want.

Yes there are: Payton, Billups and Kidd were outstanding defenders at the PG who forced you to alter gameplans. Hell even an ancient Kidd was assigned to Durant, Kobe, and Wade during the Mavs title run