We didn't clinch. And even in the next week if every game were to go against us we would go from a 1.4% weaker SOS than the Giants (thus winning the tiebreaker) to a 1.3% harder SOS than the Giants (thus losing the tiebreaker).
I'm going to go through week 17 and put in all of the adverse outcomes to make sure it doesn't miraculously switch somehow, but I can say with near 100% certainty we haven't clinched.
Red indicates that the team's SOS increased over the last week which hurts their tiebreaker. Green indicates the team's SOS decreased over the last week which helps the tiebreaker.
We.
Were.
So.
Close.
The Tank Inquirer's game of the week last week was actually a great game indeed. Eli Manning turned back the clock to throw for 450+ yards and the Giants narrowly dropped one at home against the Eagles and Nick Foles. We were within a score of securing the top overall pick in week 15 which would have been damn impressive, even for us!
But no tank worth driving comes easy and this is no exception. Because we have still not clinched the top spot in the draft. The hacks that called our game Sunday kept referring to the alternative facts that if we lost to the Ravens that we would clinch the top overall pick in the draft. This got me thinking, had we already clinched the tiebreaker? Then some of you asked the same. Well thanks to the barebones announcing crew (for a barebones team) I spent about half an hour creating our doomsday scenario over these next two weeks. More on that below, but for now know that this tank isn't at its final destination yet!
The Jaguars dad dicked the Texans into oblivion this week in a game that was over by half. It was nice to not have to sweat one out for these pesky Texans and have a stress free texans tank Sunday. The Texans get the Stools at home this week. I think we will have another stress free Sunday.
This week we clinched a top 2 pick in the draft with the loss to the Rats. So even if we Mangini out, the worst we can pick is second. With either a loss in the next 2 or a Giants win in the next 2 we will clinch the top spot for a second year in a row.
In other good news, the Browns SOS took a big hit this weekend sliding down 1.3% (eat a dick, Stoolers!) with the Texans SOS staying relatively stable with a 0.1% decrease. As if that wasn't enough good news, the Giants SOS inflated 1% giving us a current 1.4% lead (aka lower) on SOS.
The Texans pick also moved up to #4 this weekend with another 49ers win. The margin between the 49ers and Texans SOS however is quite small so this could easily flip back and forth over the next 2 weeks. Luckily the Bears and Buccs have pretty much cemented themselves as losing the tiebreakers with absolutely brutal SOS.
Unforuntately the hapless Bengals and the ponies are looming with lower SOS and 1 more win. A Texans win could bump us all the way down to the 10th pick if the 49ers, Bears, Buccs, Bengals, Broncos, and Jets all lose (although the current Jets SOS is harder than the Texans by around 3%). So Yates has to keep up the good work and finish this tank out strong.
The strength of schedules are calculated over the team's entire schedule not just their schedule to date. If you see a strength of schedule quoted in another article, or if another article has a different draft order, it is very likely because they calculated their strength of schedule using schedule to date. There is much more week to week variance for using schedule to date because if you end up playing the Eagles or the Browns then your strength of schedule based on schedule to date will take a huge swing by adding that additional game. For that reason I use full schedule to calculate SOS
I currently only did SOS for teams with 4 or less wins. If the Texans unfortunately win again I will add all 5 win teams at that time and so on
Game of the Week
Ok the game of the week is probably the Bears Browns since we play at 1 and the Giants are a 4 o'clock game, but I'm going to make a weird assumption that with our backs absolutely against the wall we may just win one in Chicago! So the focus shifts to the Giants liberating us and freeing us to win a game! Go Giants!
Other games to keep an eye on
Browns @ Bears
I wish we played after the Giants so we knew who to root for, but I'd probably rather just guarantee Rosen than chance fate. I'll probably observe agnostically and let out very few "wew's" either way
Stools @ Texans
Won't cry if the Texans win this one (as long as Jacksonville also wins so the Stools lose their bye), but we really could use the Texans losing out at this point.
Lions @ Bengals
Breathing room for Texans
Broncos @ Redskins
See above
Operation DOOMsday
Ok, so I couldn't think of a better way to prove that the Browns didn't clinch than by contradiction. So, if we could show any scenario where the Browns don't end up with the top pick then obviously the hypothesis that we clinched was a false one.
To do this I did a count of how many times each NFL team played the Browns and how many times each NFL team played the Giants. If the count was the same (the team in question didn't play either the Browns or Giants OR the team in question played both the Browns and the Giants exactly once) then we have no rooting preference for that team for SOS purposes. If two "no preferences" played then I just picked at random a winner.
If a team played the Browns more than the Giants, then our worst case scenario is that team winning. If both teams played the Browns, but one team played us more (aka the Steelers playing the Texans this week) then it is worst case scenario that the team that played us more often wins.
There are also games where a team who only played us plays a team that only played the Giants. In this case the stakes are high. I marked these games with a double effect in my analysis. (double effect was also marked for if a divisional foe plays a team neither us nor the Giants had played i.e. we got a double effect by the Stools losing to the Pats last week because the Giants nor the Browns played the Pats).
Also a no preference are divisional games because the losses from one team cancel the wins from another. For instance the Cowboys-Eagles game has no effect on SOS thus we have no preference.
*exhale*
All that said, here is the table which shows our worst case scenario and how it ends up. Keep in mind there are a LOT of no preference games in week 17 because it's a heavy divisional game.
The results of this exact scenario playing out?
That's right... we lose the top pick. thus unforunately no clinch.
That said, I'll now list out the remaining double effect games this season and who to root for
Week 16
Rams @ Titans
We played the Titans and the Giants played the Rams, weakens our SOS while strengthening theirs
Lions @ Bengals
(keep in mind this would affect the Texans tank as well and that isn't the point of this particular scenario. this only concerns OUR SOS)
Jaguars @ 49ers
Week 17
There are actually no double effect games in week 17 and 10 games with no preference. Thus we will have a much clearer view of the tiebreaker at the end of this week
The plan to not care about winning for at least two years was always idiotic. Hopefully new coaching staff and most of the front office is gone. Sashi deserved to be fired and now Hue is next!
The plan to not care about winning for at least two years was always idiotic. Hopefully new coaching staff and most of the front office is gone. Sashi deserved to be fired and now Hue is next!
Red indicates that the team's SOS increased over the last week which hurts their tiebreaker. Green indicates the team's SOS decreased over the last week which helps the tiebreaker.
This S.O.S. bullshit keeps fucking with our tank seasons. How are the Browns supposed to play teams with hard schedules if those same teams are playing the Browns once or twice a season? The system is rigged against the Browns being a success if we can't lose without being penalized like this.
Not giving this team a single penny next year if we keep Hue and don’t spend in FA.
Just pathetic.
I’m not one of those people that’s gonna say “I’m not gonna watch them. Fuck them.” I am going to keep watching. Love the Browns. Always will. But they don’t deserve my $ until they start doing things right. If Dorsey/JH can’t see Hue needs to go. That’s strike 1.
Not giving this team a single penny next year if we keep Hue and don’t spend in FA.
Just pathetic.
I’m not one of those people that’s gonna say “I’m not gonna watch them. Fuck them.” I am going to keep watching. Love the Browns. Always will. But they don’t deserve my $ until they start doing things right. If Dorsey/JH can’t see Hue needs to go. That’s strike 1.
We had 3 good plays today. I confess I watched as I ran 11.1miles on the treadmill.
1. Garrettasauras Miles with the pick 6. Thanks Nassib, morale deflated.
2. Some random pass w Kizer throwing off his back foot over the middle to Duke. That was exciting, good throw good run.
3. Njoku, who looks to be an absolute stud BTW, makes a great move but fumbles at the 2.
The bottom line is it’s Hue’s fault that it looks like we don’t practice. Fuck that guy. He sucks, Kizer sucks, and both will be fired after this year.
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