2019 Cleveland Browns Training Camp

[red.]

 

[I'mWithDan]

In no world can I consider Chubb a top 5 back in terms of talent. Maybe he has high production, but with a flawed offensive line, I'm taking the under.

That's probably fair but RB is a position that is turning over. I think in the traditional sense, he doesn't have the insane physical talent that usually accompanies a top 5 rusher but after Barkley, Kamara, McCaffrey and Zeke......do you really like guys like David Johnson, Conner, Bell, etc. anymore than Chubb? I mean, I really don't.

OL is certainly a concern but we have an insane collection of skill talent and a QB/WR combo who can throw over the top of anyone. Chubb was a great after contact guy last year and I think he'll have similar running lanes this year, considering the offset of lesser OL but more vertical pressure over the top. Might see a downturn in YPA in obvious rushing situations but I think the net will be about the same at years' end.

Looking at the landscape, I certainly think he can occupy a top 5 level of production this season and then as more guys funnel in to the position, settle in the 8-10 range......as more of an insanely productive grinder who can block and do dirty work for an electric passing attack. But maybe we are all really discounting his talent. Not many RB's are taken in the first 35 picks of the draft.

 

[Soda]

Tomorrow is the final practice (most likely) before the cut-down on Saturday. I really would like to see the media focus on who is battling for a job on these last days of camp. I'd imagine a lot of guys who are definitely making the team aren't being trotted-out for a large workload during this week's practice; knowing who is out there a lot may shed light on the team's feelings.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

That's probably fair but RB is a position that is turning over. I think in the traditional sense, he doesn't have the insane physical talent that usually accompanies a top 5 rusher but after Barkley, Kamara, McCaffrey and Zeke......do you really like guys like David Johnson, Conner, Bell, etc. anymore than Chubb? I mean, I really don't.

OL is certainly a concern but we have an insane collection of skill talent and a QB/WR combo who can throw over the top of anyone. Chubb was a great after contact guy last year and I think he'll have similar running lanes this year, considering the offset of lesser OL but more vertical pressure over the top. Might see a downturn in YPA in obvious rushing situations but I think the net will be about the same at years' end.

Looking at the landscape, I certainly think he can occupy a top 5 level of production this season and then as more guys funnel in to the position, settle in the 8-10 range......as more of an insanely productive grinder who can block and do dirty work for an electric passing attack. But maybe we are all really discounting his talent. Not many RB's are taken in the first 35 picks of the draft.

After Saquon, Kamara, Gurley and Zeke I'd put DJ, Bell and Mixon as pretty much guys who Chubb, even if he reaches his full potential, can't sniff. There's a chance Gurley DJ and Bell all come down from their prime, so if that happens, I guess my tier of elite RB is only 4 deep (Saquon, Kamara, Zeke, Mixon).

If Chubb passes guys like Melvin Gordon and Leonard Fournette this season to stake a claim at the top of the second tier, I take that as a win.

I think the only rookie I could see entering that top tier would be Miles Sanders if he turns out to be Shady 2.0

I also make a huge distinction between talent and production that a lot of people tend not to make. I don't think James Conner is even a top-half RB in the NFL, but he's in one of the best situations you could ask for.

 

[Bkerr02]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see colquit traded before cut downs for a late rd pick. It would be hard to see them cutting a guy that has consistently kicked 50 yard punts through out the preseason. I expect Joseph to get cut as well. I’m sure we will see a surprise or 2 as well

 

[I'mWithDan]

After Saquon, Kamara, Gurley and Zeke I'd put DJ, Bell and Mixon as pretty much guys who Chubb, even if he reaches his full potential, can't sniff. There's a chance Gurley DJ and Bell all come down from their prime, so if that happens, I guess my tier of elite RB is only 4 deep (Saquon, Kamara, Zeke, Mixon).

If Chubb passes guys like Melvin Gordon and Leonard Fournette this season to stake a claim at the top of the second tier, I take that as a win.

I think the only rookie I could see entering that top tier would be Miles Sanders if he turns out to be Shady 2.0

I also make a huge distinction between talent and production that a lot of people tend not to make. I don't think James Conner is even a top-half RB in the NFL, but he's in one of the best situations you could ask for.

I honestly think Chubb is more likely to be top 5 than he is likely to be in the wash of that second tier.

Chubb did two things incredibly well last year.

1. His YAC was near elite. He was #4 in the NFL in total rushing yards after contact, in-spite of getting damn near zero burn for the first 1/3rd of the season. It's just a stat that tends to separate the men from the boys at the position, over the long term. Breaking tackles is a skill, IMO, that cannot be learned at the NFL level. It's something you do or do not have and Chubb most definitely has it.

2. He hit alot of big plays. 5.7% of the time, Chubb hit a gain of 20+ or more. It was on par with Barkley's rate of 6.1%, who led the league in 20+ gains. Chubb's 5.7% mark was also better than Gordon (5.1%), Mixon (4.6%), Gurley (4.3%), Conner (4.2%), Zeke (3.6%). This is a specific stat most would be surprised by.

I think you are possibly slightly undervaluing Chubb, even though I agree with the general assessment. I'm more reserved because I want to see him do it in a 250+ carry role but his rookie stats were way, way better than he's being given credit for. 5 YPA, nearly 60% of his yards after contact, double digit big plays. I don't have reservations on his skill or talent, I'd like to just see him shoulder the larger workload before saying he's definitely a top 5 guy.

Last 10 games:

176 carries, 823 rushing yards, 6 TD's.

Per game averages during that stretch:

17.6 carries, 82.3 yards per game, .6 TD's per game

Projected 16 game season at that carry volume:

1316 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD's

• 82.3 yards per game rushing would have slotted him at #4 in the NFL
• 1316 rushing yards would have slotted him at #2 in the NFL
• 10 rushing TD's would have slotted him at #6 in the NFL

His 10 game pace was projecting him as a top 5 back across the board (YPG, total rushing yards, rushing TD's). He just needed opportunity.

 

[Jack Brickman]

That's probably fair but RB is a position that is turning over. I think in the traditional sense, he doesn't have the insane physical talent that usually accompanies a top 5 rusher but after Barkley, Kamara, McCaffrey and Zeke......do you really like guys like David Johnson, Conner, Bell, etc. anymore than Chubb? I mean, I really don't.

Chubb is literally a 98th percentile SPARQ-X guy. He's a freak athlete. He's not quite up there with Barkley (who, mind you, was one of the best RB prospects of all time), but he's damn close.

As I've said before, if Chubb doesn't shred his knee in college, he's being talked about as another potential generational talent at the RB position coming out of school. This is a kid who had almost 1800 yards from scrimmage as a freshman in college in an SEC program.

 

[Lee]

I honestly think Chubb is more likely to be top 5 than he is likely to be in the wash of that second tier.

Chubb did two things incredibly well last year.

1. His YAC was near elite. He was #4 in he NFL in total rushing yards after contact, in-spite of getting damn near zero burn for the first 1/3rd of the season. It's just a stat that tends to separate the men from the boys at the position, over the long term. Breaking tackles is a skill, IMO, that cannot be learned at the NFL level. It's something you do or do not have and Chubb most definitely has it.

2. He hit alot of big plays. 5.7% of the time, Chubb hit a gain of 20+ or more. It was on par with Barkley's rate of 6.1%, who led the league in 20+ gains. Chubb's 5.7% mark was also better than Gordon (5.1%), Mixon (4.6%), Gurley (4.3%), Conner (4.2%), Zeke (3.6%). This is a specific stat most would be surprised by.

I think you are possibly slightly undervaluing Chubb, even though I agree with the general assessment. I'm more reserved because I want to see him do it in a 250+ carry role but his rookie stats were way, way better than he's being given credit for. 5 YPA, nearly 60% of his yard after contact, double digit big plays. I don't have reservations on his skill or talent, I'd like to just see him shoulder the larger workload before saying he's definitely a top 5 guy.

Last 10 games:

176 carries, 823 rushing yards, 6 TD's.

Per game averages during that stretch:

17.6 carries, 82.3 yards per game, .6 TD's per game

Projected 16 game season at that carry volume:

1316 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD's

• 82.3 yards per game rushing would have slotted him at #4 in the NFL
• 1316 rushing yards would have slotted him at #2 in the NFL
• 10 rushing TD's would have slotted him at #6 in the NFL

His 10 game pace was projecting him as a top 5 back across the board (YPG, total rushing yards, rushing TD's). He just needed opportunity.

I agree.

Hunt was an all star and most agree top 10 RB. Behind the same offensive line in preseason, Chubb looked significantly better. I think his knee is almost full strength now and Chubb just has a gear most power backs don't have. The obvious is Bo and Herschel, well he is just a notch below that elite all time class of athlete. I think he is going to have a special season.

 

[natedagg]

Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Luck, Ben, Rivers, Cam, Wentz... there are a lot of really good QB's in the league. I'm happy if Baker's second yet improvement puts him squarely in the 1st group of about 5-8 guys. Declaring him top 3 feels premature.

In no world can I consider Chubb a top 5 back in terms of talent. Maybe he has high production, but with a flawed offensive line, I'm taking the under.

It feels really difficult to catch the offenses of KC and LAR. New Orleans and New England haven't slipped in forever. I think teams like Pittsburgh are prime for regression, but a team like Philly or Houston could catapult into the elite ranks. If we finish as a top 5 scoring offense, Freddie and Monken have done a great job.

I'm really high on Njoku. No problem ranking him highly. I think his production will even be better than his ability this year.

Cooks/Woods/Kupp, Theilen/Diggs, Julio/Ridley are all competitors for best receiving corps in the league. But, I'm not gonna argue against us.

I was kidding. I don’t expect that kind of jump in 1 year. But you did a nice job being your best you and being nice while you made your good points. 9/10

 

[Jack Brickman]

I agree.

Hunt was an all star and most agree top 10 RB. Behind the same offensive line in preseason, Chubb looked significantly better. I think his knee is almost full strength now and Chubb just has a gear most power backs don't have. The obvious is Bo and Herschel, well he is just a notch below that elite all time class of athlete. I think he is going to have a special season.

I still think Hunt is a good RB who looked great because he was playing for a coach who literally makes every RB look amazing. Like, Spencer Ware was awesome in that offense and he has done precisely fuck all since changing teams. If you're the RB1 on an Andy Reid team, you're going to look like an RB1 in the NFL.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I honestly think Chubb is more likely to be top 5 than he is likely to be in the wash of that second tier.

Chubb did two things incredibly well last year.

1. His YAC was near elite. He was #4 in the NFL in total rushing yards after contact, in-spite of getting damn near zero burn for the first 1/3rd of the season. It's just a stat that tends to separate the men from the boys at the position, over the long term. Breaking tackles is a skill, IMO, that cannot be learned at the NFL level. It's something you do or do not have and Chubb most definitely has it.

2. He hit alot of big plays. 5.7% of the time, Chubb hit a gain of 20+ or more. It was on par with Barkley's rate of 6.1%, who led the league in 20+ gains. Chubb's 5.7% mark was also better than Gordon (5.1%), Mixon (4.6%), Gurley (4.3%), Conner (4.2%), Zeke (3.6%). This is a specific stat most would be surprised by.

I think you are possibly slightly undervaluing Chubb, even though I agree with the general assessment. I'm more reserved because I want to see him do it in a 250+ carry role but his rookie stats were way, way better than he's being given credit for. 5 YPA, nearly 60% of his yards after contact, double digit big plays. I don't have reservations on his skill or talent, I'd like to just see him shoulder the larger workload before saying he's definitely a top 5 guy.

Last 10 games:

176 carries, 823 rushing yards, 6 TD's.

Per game averages during that stretch:

17.6 carries, 82.3 yards per game, .6 TD's per game

Projected 16 game season at that carry volume:

1316 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD's

• 82.3 yards per game rushing would have slotted him at #4 in the NFL
• 1316 rushing yards would have slotted him at #2 in the NFL
• 10 rushing TD's would have slotted him at #6 in the NFL

His 10 game pace was projecting him as a top 5 back across the board (YPG, total rushing yards, rushing TD's). He just needed opportunity.

I don't mean to dismiss your work here because I'm glad you're backing up your points, but I put almost zero stock into counting stats when it comes to judging a RB's talent. For example, YAC has guys like Derrick Henry at #4. Chris Carson, James Conner, Adrian Peterson, Lamar Miller, Jordan Howard, Isaiah Crowell and Peyton Barber were among the league leaders as well. I think that stat just skews towards # of touches, and rewards power backs.

When you start dipping into things like YPC, I'm going to just check out of the discussion. Because you're the third person to bring it up lately, here is a list I compiled earlier this offseason:

Thomas Rawls, Ryan Mathews, Doug Martin, Charles Sims, CJ Anderson and Giovani Bernard were all in the top 10 YPC in 2015. Rawls was the leader at 5.6

In 2016, Mike Gillislee led at 5.7, Bilal Powell next at 5.5... Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, Isaiah Crowell all in the top 10.

2017 had Kenyan Drake, Alfred Morris, Alex Collins, Giovani Bernard, LeGerrette Blount, Matt Breida all inside the top 10.

In 2014, your leader was Justin Forsett at 5.4, followed by Jeremy Hill and Lamar Miller.

Using YPC to evaluate a RB is like using RBI to evaluate a hitter in baseball. It's archaic and pretty awful.

I like Chubb's talent, but I feel we're using a lot of crutch arguments to try and take a good RB in a good situation and force him into somewhere he doesn't belong. We had this discussion a few times over the offseason. I can't remember if you were a part of it or not, but I'm probably not going to want to dive back into the "is Nick Chubb elite" discussion. It was exhausting.

I still think Hunt is a good RB who looked great because he was playing for a coach who literally makes every RB look amazing. Like, Spencer Ware was awesome in that offense and he has done precisely fuck all since changing teams. If you're the RB1 on an Andy Reid team, you're going to look like an RB1 in the NFL.

For what it's worth, I have Nick Chubb ahead of Kareem Hunt, even if Hunt returns to 100% of his previous form, which isn't a given.

 

[Ohio]

Chubb is literally a 98th percentile SPARQ-X guy. He's a freak athlete. He's not quite up there with Barkley (who, mind you, was one of the best RB prospects of all time), but he's damn close.

As I've said before, if Chubb doesn't shred his knee in college, he's being talked about as another potential generational talent at the RB position coming out of school. This is a kid who had almost 1800 yards from scrimmage as a freshman in college in an SEC program.

This is absolutely right.

Chubb's freshman year was historic. And frankly he never looked the same in College after that injury (still had a good Senior year though), which is why he slid to the 2nd round.

Last season was the first time since his freshman year he had that level of athleticism again.

 

[Jack Brickman]

This is absolutely right.

Chubb's freshman year was historic. And frankly he never looked the same in College after that injury (still had a good Senior year though), which is why he slid to the 2nd round.

Last season was the first time since his freshman year he had that level of athleticism again.

As a rule, it usually takes guys a full season before they are back to normal after an ACL tear, and if I recall Chubb's injury was worse than just an ACL tear. Makes sense it took an extra year. And as you said, he was still really good as both a junior and senior in college. Just not as absurdly good as he was as a freshman.

Of course, he was also splitting carries with another very good back in Sony Michel.

 

[Lee]

As a rule, it usually takes guys a full season before they are back to normal after an ACL tear, and if I recall Chubb's injury was worse than just an ACL tear. Makes sense it took an extra year. And as you said, he was still really good as both a junior and senior in college. Just not as absurdly good as he was as a freshman.

Of course, he was also splitting carries with another very good back in Sony Michel.

Slightly off topic, but over the last 10 years Georgia is right there with Alabama as far as recruiting goes and only lately has Auburn caught up but there is zero national championships for Georgia. I always thought of Saban as just a great recruiter but I might need to rethink that a bit.

Georgia always seems to be 2 deep at every position with 5 star recruits, which might seem semi normal to you OSU fans, but to us Purdue fans its amazing, lol

 

[tristan+kyrie=$]

How the hell do we get the O Line to the point where it doesn’t ruin the season