2019 Draft, Pick #30 - Kevin Porter Jr., USC

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Lee

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I dont understand why everyone defends their pre-draft positions instead of looking at where the players are now.

I told, as many know, Drew Brees to his face he wasnt going to be that good, hindsight i might be wrong.

I wasnt Huge on Porter, thought sexton was empty stats, and loved Garland and thought the Garland-Sexton back court could work.

I still like Garland, but think the back court probably cant work, i am coming around on Sexton, his effeciency is getting hard to ignore, but his size means he cant be out there with Garland, one needs to go to the bench, Sexton's game is perfect for 6th man, but right now he is more developed and playing better than Garland, so for now it should be Garland.

And i love Porter, i actually think he could end up the best of all the young players. His size, athletic ability and potential are very high. He might have come in the rawest of all 3, but he has made the most progress this year and that speaks wonders about his future.

Lets actually base our decisions on where these players are at now, not try and defend ourselves. Even the best pro scouts are luck to be right half the time.
 

Sebastian

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It seems like the dude improves every week.

Lots of teams will regret passing him up.

The Cavs have a few nice pieces here.

One of Garland/Sexton will likely have to go and they need to ensure they get a real SF to bring everything together.
 

avs2000

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Spot on. Porter is the worst player in the league Cut ties asap
Im not sure if you’re being sarcastic. I don’t like the fact his court vision of seeing and actually passing to open guys is like Stevie Wonder. It doesn’t exist.
Was not sarcastic. He is still improving. The assists are starting to come. He one by one is improving all aspects of his game
 

Jordan

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No offense, but all the numbers guys have been wrong about him from day 1. He was one of the youngest in the draft. His progress from oct to now means his stats up till now are heavily skewed by a slow start. He has gotten better every month.

Nathan S said there were a hundred guys as good as him and Imwithdan said he went right where he was supposed to at the time of the draft. Do you believe that?

Just saying the numbers thing can mean something, but it isn't everything. It's obvious there is something there with this kid when you watch him. I don't know how high his ceiling goes, but he literally got better while he was sitting on the bench and watching and has been much more consistent since coming back.

Looking at his yearling numbers isn't indicative of much. You have to compare month to month
So you didn’t read one word I said? Cool.

He’s very talented. He’s also been a negative impact player all season. Most games he shoots slightly above one point per shot and is horrific on defense.

When he looks good, though, he looks like a superstar. But it’s going to take more than “work” and “keeping his head on straight” - what I was initially responding to - to make him a star. He needs to raise his floor and be able to perform at an elite level more than once every five-to-ten games.
 
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What has surprised me the most about Porter is his passing. He's a surprisingly good passer for a rookie with very little college experience.

He can hit the 3. He can create his own shot. He can get into the paint and throw it down if he has an alley. He surprises defenders with how quickly he can get to the rim off his final step.

When he's cut off and can't get to the rim he hangs in the air, takes the hit, then banks in the shot just before his feet hit the floor, frequently getting a 3-point play. I don't know if I've ever seen a player able to execute that difficult shot so consistently.

When he doesn't have the dunk or the other shot he makes a nice interior pass to a big. He's scored in double figures seven games in a row and is averaging 15.8 over his last five. He's quickly turning into another Jordan Clarkson, except he's SEVEN years younger.
 

Green Lantern

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Porter is like so many others who come up without a lot of prep from leaving school early.
Only a few come in with an all around game and Porter needs time to learn the NBA game and work on his craft.
His weak areas are there to magnify but he's got talent.
 

saymac

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If he can stay out of trouble and injuries he will be something special he has future all star potential
 

NMCav

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If he can stay out of trouble and injuries he will be something special he has future all star potential
I'm still wondering what he did at USC to get suspended. Aside from "accidentally" bumping a ref early this season he hasn't caused any trouble on or off the court that I know of. I think his off the court troubles were massively overblown unless it was something big that the media just didn't let out. The normal immaturity of a 18 year old is all I can think and he hasn't shown much of that here. I think injuries could be more of a problem because he seems to get nicked up a fair amount.
 

Cavatt

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So you didn’t read one word I said? Cool.

He’s very talented. He’s also been a negative impact player all season. Most games he shoots slightly above one point per shot and is horrific on defense.

When he looks good, though, he looks like a superstar. But it’s going to take more than “work” and “keeping his head on straight” - what I was initially responding to - to make him a star. He needs to raise his floor and be able to perform at an elite level more than once every five-to-ten games.
I read it. You were talking advanced numbers without citing them, and without mentioning what games you are measuring. Where does he rank as a rookie? His numbers since he has been backs are as bad as at the beginning of the season? I don't think so.

How valuable are all year stats for rookies when it's obvious they figure things out later in the season ?

I saw Hunter and Reddish last night. I take Porter over them 10/10 times. Are their numbers better?
 

Jordan

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I read it. You were talking advanced numbers without citing them, and without mentioning what games you are measuring. Where does he rank as a rookie? His numbers since he has been backs are as bad as at the beginning of the season? I don't think so.

How valuable are all year stats for rookies when it's obvious they figure things out later in the season ?

I saw Hunter and Reddish last night. I take Porter over them 10/10 times. Are their numbers better?
No, you didn't, but that's fine.

Regarding stats, I am referring to every advanced metric - RPM, RAPM, PIPM, BPM, VORP, and VORP WS - that have him ranked as one of the ten worst players in the league. He has a 55% true shooting (average). His net rating was -1.1 with a 37% TS%, November was -19.9 with a 48.8% TS%, December was -7.9 with a 55% TS%, January was -5 with a 58.5% TS%, and February was a -13.8 with a 61.1% TS%. So yes, his shooting has improved every month, even though it is not reflected in his advanced metrics.

A big reason why his January and February (10 games) are so impressive is that his assist/turnover ratio (1.2 assists to every turnover) has improved along with his shooting... but that number is still pretty bad, especially with a 20%+ usage. He has gone from a horrific playmaker to a below-average one, but his shooting is definitely improving.

The huge, largest, absolutely terrible problem, though, is his defense. KPJ's opponents are shooting 8.6% better against him as the primary defender than on average and over the last fifteen games that number balloons up to 14.2%.

Basically, KPJ's last fifteen games show him as a phenomenal shooter, below average playmaker, and one of the worst defenders in the league. This is why his advanced stats have barely improved throughout the season. He is prone to turnovers and is a horrible defender.

Now, let me be very clear: I really like Kevin Porter Jr. and think he will be a very good player in this league. But it will take more than hard work and keeping a good head on his shoulders to do so, which was the initial post I was responding to.

I honestly am not trying to pick a fight, though it seems like you are, but I really do like KPJ. This idea that he is some franchise savior and just needs to work hard to become a superstar, however, is profoundly incorrect. He has the potential to become a superstar, but he also has a really long way to go.
 
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