I'm talking purely about my statistical ratings, not about my qualitative opinions about these guys. My draft rater sees Reed as a pretty bad offensive player (low 3-point rate, bad assist:TO) but a very good defensive player. Adds up to about 0. Worth a second rounder, arguably.
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2019 NBA Draft
- Thread starter Nathan S
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I'm talking purely about my statistical ratings, not about my qualitative opinions about these guys. My draft rater sees Reed as a pretty bad offensive player (low 3-point rate, bad assist:TO) but a very good defensive player. Adds up to about 0. Worth a second rounder, arguably.
I'mWithDan
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Fair enough.
I caught him in the CBI and coaches must have given him a bit more offensive leeway at season's end. I just looked at his game logs. Over his 7 game post-season run, he shot 14 3's (made 6). In their other 29 games, he only shot 23 total.
Didn't strike me as someone who will be a creator on offense, even in a best case scenario but even without that, he has an interesting offensive skillset to me.
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Yeah, not sure if the word lukewarm properly captured my meaning. My draft rater sees those guys as good bench players or mildly below average starters in the most likely case. Very serious prospects that merit a closer look.
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Was impressed with what I saw from Reed as well.
Not sure how much you follow recruiting, but DePaul has a top 50 guy coming in - Romeo Weems. He's gotten a lot of opportunities with Team USA and is a legit NBA prospect imo. Decent sized forward that can defend a ton of different players, plus can play-make some on the offensive end. Not sure how much I'll want to watch the Big East next year, but I'm excited for that duo for sure.
Here's a complete list of major-conference (and Gonzaga) guys who were on/off outliers on their own teams (all per-100 possessions). I've color-coded in underclassmen who've declared in blue, and seniors (potentially interesting undrafted free agents) in red.
-Nicolas Claxton, +35, no teammate better than +13
-Alpha Diallo, +25, no teammate better than +5
-Isaac Copeland +23, no teammate better than +4
-Eli Cain +24, no teammate better than +6
-Lamar Stevens +25, no teammate better than +8
-Justin Robinson +22, no teammate better than +8
-Tyrese Haliburton +14, no teammate better than +1
-Quinndary Weatherspoon +20, no teammate better than +7
-Grant Williams +19, no teammate better than +6
-Zach Norvell +16, no teammate better than +4
-Rex Pflueger +27, no teammate better than +16
-Robert Franks +23, no teammate better than +12
-Trent Forrest +18, no teammate better than +7
-Devon Dotson +21, no teammate better than +10
-Buddy Boeheim +18, no teammate better than +7
-Jules Bernard +18, no teammate better than +7
-Kaleb Wesson +18, no teammate better than +8
-Ikenna Smart +12, no teammate better than +2
-Nicolas Claxton, +35, no teammate better than +13
-Alpha Diallo, +25, no teammate better than +5
-Isaac Copeland +23, no teammate better than +4
-Eli Cain +24, no teammate better than +6
-Lamar Stevens +25, no teammate better than +8
-Justin Robinson +22, no teammate better than +8
-Tyrese Haliburton +14, no teammate better than +1
-Quinndary Weatherspoon +20, no teammate better than +7
-Grant Williams +19, no teammate better than +6
-Zach Norvell +16, no teammate better than +4
-Rex Pflueger +27, no teammate better than +16
-Robert Franks +23, no teammate better than +12
-Trent Forrest +18, no teammate better than +7
-Devon Dotson +21, no teammate better than +10
-Buddy Boeheim +18, no teammate better than +7
-Jules Bernard +18, no teammate better than +7
-Kaleb Wesson +18, no teammate better than +8
-Ikenna Smart +12, no teammate better than +2
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Here’s another take on Portsmouth if anyone is interested. I think Mike Gribanov is the best writer that The Stepien has, he just doesn’t put his thoughts out into articles that consistently. He highlights a lot of the same guys we’ve already talked about, but has some others he likes.
https://www.thestepien.com/2019/04/...ased-portsmouth-invitational-pit-performance/
Chris Clemons is going to be very interesting to me. Don’t think he gets drafted, but I know I would love if him I wasn’t scarred from the Kay Felder experience. I still believe if Felder could consistently shoot he would have had a decent career. With how unimportant defense seems to be in the GLeague, he should be the most sought after guy for those teams lol.
https://www.thestepien.com/2019/04/...ased-portsmouth-invitational-pit-performance/
Chris Clemons is going to be very interesting to me. Don’t think he gets drafted, but I know I would love if him I wasn’t scarred from the Kay Felder experience. I still believe if Felder could consistently shoot he would have had a decent career. With how unimportant defense seems to be in the GLeague, he should be the most sought after guy for those teams lol.
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Thanks for posting this.
Clemons is just a next level athlete, that would be my argument on why he's different. Kay wasn't un-athletic, certainly not but he channeled that athleticism as an off the ball two foot leaper. And when he did dunk, he seemed to be far more extended, eeking out those last few inches......vs. Clemons who honestly looks like he is leaping with pogo sticks.
Clemons displays just CRAZY functional athleticism and explosion, something Kay just never had IMO. I'm not saying he can do this consistently at the NBA level but the explosion and athleticism necessary to dunk off the dribble, with ease, at his size...is nuts. He also shows that explosion in various play types......off the ball, on the ball, cutting back door, in transition, against defensive pressure, etc. and from different platforms......running one foot, running two foot, off ball one foot, off ball two foot, etc.
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-4.3 DBPM in the Big South. Puke...
I'mWithDan
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He's going to be attacked at the NBA level but I think he's athletic enough and stout enough to not be an unmitigated disaster vs. second units. So if his offense translates, that's not a bad hit if you can find a matchup based bench scorer with a second round pick.
My draft rater has Clemons at +5.7 on offense, -4.4 on defense. That makes him easily the most "lopsided" prospect in this draft and in my historical ratings. He has the 3rd-highest offensive projection I've seen, trailing only Irving and Doncic, and the worst defensive projection I've seen in a credible NBA prospect.
It's fun to use draft raters to identify high-upside sleepers, but an equally valuable use is to identify overrated, low-upside prospects. Here are some guys who've been floated as possible lottery picks that my draft rater doesn't like. It gives them a less than 10% chance of peaking as +2 impact or better players at the NBA level. Roughly speaking, that's the point at which a player's good enough to be the third guy of a "big 3."
-Tyler Herro, projected ceiling +1.5. His jumpshot is good, probably even better than my draft rater gives him credit for, but with good-not-great athleticism and ballhandling ability he may struggle to get his shot off against NBA defenses. Ended his season on a sour note, as he looked overwhelmed and faded into the background when Kentucky desperately needed him to step up and hit some big shots.
-Bruno Fernando, projected ceiling +1.5. His physical tools are enticing but he's not an outlier athlete, which makes it reasonable to doubt whether it's worth rolling the dice on the continued improvement of his skills and IQ. Not fluid and comfortable on the perimeter on either end of the court.
-Rui Hachimura, projected ceiling +1.3. His stock peaked with an upset win over Duke early in the year, but flatlined from there as he struggled with efficiency in subsequent games against major-conference foes. His weak all-around game means he'll have to be an elite scorer to be a star, and he doesn't seem quite skilled or athletic enough to pull that off.
-Nassir Little, projected ceiling +1.2. Fantastic functional athleticism at times, but middling IQ on both ends of the floor is a serious red flag. Combined with a lack of ballhandling ability this limits his offensive potential, and combined with a lack of elite size/length limits his defensive potential.
-DeAndre Hunter, projected ceiling +1.2. I think my draft rater is a little too bearish on his defense, as he was genuinely a high-impact player on that end at the college level in spite of not putting up big box score stats. There's still some truth to his low ceiling though, as he's not overwhelmingly disruptive or versatile defensively, and he doesn't have the off-the-bounce offensive creativity to suggest that he could one day take on more of a leading role.
-Keldon Johnson, projected ceiling +1.0. Like Hachimura, he'll have to be a great scorer, not merely good, to have a significantly positive overall impact. And he hasn't looked exceptional in that regard. While he's not a terrible passer or a terrible defender, he hasn't shown enough in those areas to believe that they could be cultivated into strengths at the NBA level.
-Kevin Porter Jr, projected ceiling +1.0. At his best a dynamic and athletic 3-level scorer, but not a reliable enough ballhandler and decision maker to be trusted with a leading offensive role. Similarly, inconsistent effort level and middling IQ will probably continue to keep him from fully utilizing his athletic gifts on defense.
-Sekou Doumbouya, projected ceiling +0.7. Good physical tools on paper, but in reality doesn't have the dynamic slashing/rebounding/shot blocking impact you would expect. Doesn't have the skills or IQ to really make his impact felt in any facet of the game. The youngest player in draft, but also further from being a useful NBA player than any other projected first rounder.
-Cam Reddish, projected ceiling +0.4. A year at Duke exposed his loose, sloppy handle and poor decision making with the ball. Much like Hunter, his general demeanor suggests that he's content to be a roleplayer, not driven to become a superstar. On defense he's even less versatile than Hunter, tending to shy away from contact in spite of being among the largest players on the court most of the time in college. That's a red flag that prospects rarely overcome.
-Darius Garland, projected ceiling +0.3. Take this with a grain of salt because the limited sample size, but his margin for error is small as he'll lean heavily on his 1-on-1 scoring ability to generate value. Even if he comes back from his knee injury at 100% he'll likely have a hard time defending NBA athletes at point guard, and his lack of size will make him difficult to hide.
-KZ Okpala, projected ceiling -0.8. His interesting physical tools may convince some team to roll the dice on him, but there's very little substance to his game. Doesn't have the handle, athleticism, or physicality to create efficient offense against good defenders, and seriously underwhelming defensively due to a lack of functional athleticism and IQ. The odds are strongly against him being a rotation player, let alone a star.
-Tyler Herro, projected ceiling +1.5. His jumpshot is good, probably even better than my draft rater gives him credit for, but with good-not-great athleticism and ballhandling ability he may struggle to get his shot off against NBA defenses. Ended his season on a sour note, as he looked overwhelmed and faded into the background when Kentucky desperately needed him to step up and hit some big shots.
-Bruno Fernando, projected ceiling +1.5. His physical tools are enticing but he's not an outlier athlete, which makes it reasonable to doubt whether it's worth rolling the dice on the continued improvement of his skills and IQ. Not fluid and comfortable on the perimeter on either end of the court.
-Rui Hachimura, projected ceiling +1.3. His stock peaked with an upset win over Duke early in the year, but flatlined from there as he struggled with efficiency in subsequent games against major-conference foes. His weak all-around game means he'll have to be an elite scorer to be a star, and he doesn't seem quite skilled or athletic enough to pull that off.
-Nassir Little, projected ceiling +1.2. Fantastic functional athleticism at times, but middling IQ on both ends of the floor is a serious red flag. Combined with a lack of ballhandling ability this limits his offensive potential, and combined with a lack of elite size/length limits his defensive potential.
-DeAndre Hunter, projected ceiling +1.2. I think my draft rater is a little too bearish on his defense, as he was genuinely a high-impact player on that end at the college level in spite of not putting up big box score stats. There's still some truth to his low ceiling though, as he's not overwhelmingly disruptive or versatile defensively, and he doesn't have the off-the-bounce offensive creativity to suggest that he could one day take on more of a leading role.
-Keldon Johnson, projected ceiling +1.0. Like Hachimura, he'll have to be a great scorer, not merely good, to have a significantly positive overall impact. And he hasn't looked exceptional in that regard. While he's not a terrible passer or a terrible defender, he hasn't shown enough in those areas to believe that they could be cultivated into strengths at the NBA level.
-Kevin Porter Jr, projected ceiling +1.0. At his best a dynamic and athletic 3-level scorer, but not a reliable enough ballhandler and decision maker to be trusted with a leading offensive role. Similarly, inconsistent effort level and middling IQ will probably continue to keep him from fully utilizing his athletic gifts on defense.
-Sekou Doumbouya, projected ceiling +0.7. Good physical tools on paper, but in reality doesn't have the dynamic slashing/rebounding/shot blocking impact you would expect. Doesn't have the skills or IQ to really make his impact felt in any facet of the game. The youngest player in draft, but also further from being a useful NBA player than any other projected first rounder.
-Cam Reddish, projected ceiling +0.4. A year at Duke exposed his loose, sloppy handle and poor decision making with the ball. Much like Hunter, his general demeanor suggests that he's content to be a roleplayer, not driven to become a superstar. On defense he's even less versatile than Hunter, tending to shy away from contact in spite of being among the largest players on the court most of the time in college. That's a red flag that prospects rarely overcome.
-Darius Garland, projected ceiling +0.3. Take this with a grain of salt because the limited sample size, but his margin for error is small as he'll lean heavily on his 1-on-1 scoring ability to generate value. Even if he comes back from his knee injury at 100% he'll likely have a hard time defending NBA athletes at point guard, and his lack of size will make him difficult to hide.
-KZ Okpala, projected ceiling -0.8. His interesting physical tools may convince some team to roll the dice on him, but there's very little substance to his game. Doesn't have the handle, athleticism, or physicality to create efficient offense against good defenders, and seriously underwhelming defensively due to a lack of functional athleticism and IQ. The odds are strongly against him being a rotation player, let alone a star.
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Have been re-watching a ton of Morant film the last couple of days... overall I've come away with a more positive outlook on him than I did initially.
One area I have pretty high concern with is his finishing. Here's my in-depth concern:
His touch is just absolutely non-existent with either hand. His ambidexterity is one of his most enticing traits, but he misses bunnies all the time. Couple of other things... He primarily gets to the rim via change of direction... I don't know if it's physically possible to elevate after making such moves. The athletic abilities really pop when he's moving downhill in a straight line with space. I don't think it's a matter of one-foot vs two-feet like I've seen mentioned often with him. I actually think he's solid off one foot (again, if he's downhill + straight line).
Another thing I've noticed is that he LOVES scoop layups on either side of the rim - even to a fault. He goes for reverses unnecessarily when the primary side of the rim is open. His average release point on shots around the rim is about as low as anyone I've seen, and it completely negates a lot of the hang time he is able to achieve.
With that said, his craft is fantastic, and I feel like he can get to a shot with either hand whenever he wants. Overall, I think he's going to struggle quite a bit vs NBA length at the rim at first. I don't have a replay, and can't find it anywhere, but the game vs FSU (one of the few teams with legit NBA length) was a tough watch in that regard.
I'd be really curious to see the correlation in the NBA between team finishing % vs transition D, as well as finishing % and overall team defense. Missed layups on one end almost always create 4 on 5 situations. Even a change in the 'take foul'/'Euro foul' rules (which I've seen people advocating for) could make this point even more important.
With all that said, I really like Morant... He's the #2 guy to me, and having Sexton wouldn't influence me enough to not take Morant.
One area I have pretty high concern with is his finishing. Here's my in-depth concern:
His touch is just absolutely non-existent with either hand. His ambidexterity is one of his most enticing traits, but he misses bunnies all the time. Couple of other things... He primarily gets to the rim via change of direction... I don't know if it's physically possible to elevate after making such moves. The athletic abilities really pop when he's moving downhill in a straight line with space. I don't think it's a matter of one-foot vs two-feet like I've seen mentioned often with him. I actually think he's solid off one foot (again, if he's downhill + straight line).
Another thing I've noticed is that he LOVES scoop layups on either side of the rim - even to a fault. He goes for reverses unnecessarily when the primary side of the rim is open. His average release point on shots around the rim is about as low as anyone I've seen, and it completely negates a lot of the hang time he is able to achieve.
With that said, his craft is fantastic, and I feel like he can get to a shot with either hand whenever he wants. Overall, I think he's going to struggle quite a bit vs NBA length at the rim at first. I don't have a replay, and can't find it anywhere, but the game vs FSU (one of the few teams with legit NBA length) was a tough watch in that regard.
I'd be really curious to see the correlation in the NBA between team finishing % vs transition D, as well as finishing % and overall team defense. Missed layups on one end almost always create 4 on 5 situations. Even a change in the 'take foul'/'Euro foul' rules (which I've seen people advocating for) could make this point even more important.
With all that said, I really like Morant... He's the #2 guy to me, and having Sexton wouldn't influence me enough to not take Morant.
I think people are taking granted that he'll add like 15 pounds of muscle to his upper body, and I'm wondering if that's reasonable. What if he doesn't? He gets compared to a lot of powerful guards who can finish through contact, but what if he tops out at a lanky 180-185 or so? I do have him #2 on my board as well, but I don't see him as a surefire superstar, and I definitely don't think he's likely to be a positive-impact player as a rookie.
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Yeah I agree I definitely don't think he has the body type that's going to add muscle. Despite that, I don't see the lack of strength holding him back very often on the offensive side of the ball. It's hard to decipher how much of his finishing issues are related to touch as opposed to strength. I feel like he gets his shot off around the rim pretty easily, and actually doesn't have to play into contact all that much.
I also believe the FTr will translate to an extent too for when he DOES play into contact. He just lives in the paint... I saw on Synergy that out of ISO situations he drives about 82% of the time. His FTr will be one of the more interesting numbers to follow as a rookie I think... often times rookies don't get calls I guess. And from all the film I've watched this past year, Morant easily gets the most favorable whistle of anyone lol.
The strength is a massive issue on defense though imo. The next time I see him get around a screen will be the first.
You don't think his lack of upper body strength is somewhat related to his tendency toward a low release point around the rim? I agree that he's not afraid of contact and probably will get to the line at a decent rate, but he doesn't have the strength in his shoulders and upper arms to create space and put the ball on the glass like bigger, stronger guards do when they drive in for a layup.