2019 NBA Draft

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

You don't think his lack of upper body strength is somewhat related to his tendency toward a low release point around the rim? I agree that he's not afraid of contact and probably will get to the line at a decent rate, but he doesn't have the strength in his shoulders and upper arms to create space and put the ball on the glass like bigger, stronger guards do when they drive in for a layup.

I personally don't think it's related to that particular issue, no. I think he just loves the scoop layup and reverse layup too much.

Now that's not to say that adding strength won't improve his finishing in other aspects though.

 

[Ozone]

my opinion now that work outs have started
Cavs potential big board:
Williamson Z.
Morant J.
Bol B.
Barrett RJ.
Doumbouya S.
Porter K.
These 6 have the highest ceilings in the class

 

[I'mWithDan]

I think people are taking granted that he'll add like 15 pounds of muscle to his upper body, and I'm wondering if that's reasonable. What if he doesn't? He gets compared to a lot of powerful guards who can finish through contact, but what if he tops out at a lanky 180-185 or so? I do have him #2 on my board as well, but I don't see him as a surefire superstar, and I definitely don't think he's likely to be a positive-impact player as a rookie.

Based on his 24 month progression physically, I think it would actually be surprising if he didn't add 10-15 LBS of additional bulk.

Ja was rail thin in high school. He was so skinny, he never played in just a traditional jersey. He always wore a short or long sleeve shirt as well.

He's never going to be hulking but it would be really surprising if he tops out at 180-185.....given his frame and how it has changed since his senior year in high school.

Given where they were physically at similar ages, I just can't invision him being smaller than Steph....where that 180-185 area would slot him.

 

[MirORich]

Only 12 days to Lottery Night!

 

[Nathan S]

Based on his 24 month progression physically, I think it would actually be surprising if he didn't add 10-15 LBS of additional bulk.

Ja was rail thin in high school. He was so skinny, he never played in just a traditional jersey. He always wore a short or long sleeve shirt as well.

He's never going to be hulking but it would be really surprising if he tops out at 180-185.....given his frame and how it has changed since his senior year in high school.

Given where they were physically at similar ages, I just can't invision him being smaller than Steph....where that 180-185 area would slot him.

I'm not saying he won't add significant muscle either...it's just an uncertainty about him. Some people act like he's already perfect athletically. In reality, he's a great vertical athlete, fairly quick with the ball (but not overwhelmingly so), and mildly below-average in terms of bulk/strength. He could improve in some of those areas, but there's also a real chance he's close to a finished product athletically. A lot of guys peak athletically around age 20.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

How would you guys compare and contrast RJ Barrett with Romeo Langford?

To me they're a lot more similar level prospects than I initially realized... yet Barrett is projected top 3, and Langford is late lottery.

Both get to the basket in similar ways... relying on strength, angles, and long strides. Yet Langford shot +10% on shots at the rim - a huge difference. Langford is better on runners as well... that's a shot that I think will be extremely important for both of them.

The shooting is an area where Barrett edges Langford, but it's not by as much as you'd think. Plus there's reports now that Langford played the entire season with a torn ligament in his shooting thumb. (though he still shot just 6 of 22 on threes in the games prior to the injury)

Defensively they're not even in the same ballpark to me. I like Langford's defense at the point of attack. He also improved off the ball as the year went on. Barrett gives up drives as much as anyone, and doesn't have the strength + length to be a factor inside the arc or against NBA wings.

Barrett is also an entire year younger, and was probably in a worse team situation than Langford as far as fits to their game.

I don't know if I'm just lower on Barrett, higher on Langford, or a combination of the two.

 

[Nathan S]

How would you guys compare and contrast RJ Barrett with Romeo Langford?

To me they're a lot more similar level prospects than I initially realized... yet Barrett is projected top 3, and Langford is late lottery.

Both get to the basket in similar ways... relying on strength, angles, and long strides. Yet Langford shot +10% on shots at the rim - a huge difference. Langford is better on runners as well... that's a shot that I think will be extremely important for both of them.

The shooting is an area where Barrett edges Langford, but it's not by as much as you'd think. Plus there's reports now that Langford played the entire season with a torn ligament in his shooting thumb.

Defensively they're not even in the same ballpark to me. I like Langford's defense at the point of attack. He also improved off the ball as the year went on. Barrett gives up drives as much as anyone, and doesn't have the strength + length to be a factor inside the arc or against NBA wings.

Barrett is also an entire year younger, and was probably in a worse team situation than Langford as far as fits to their game.

I don't know if I'm just lower on Barrett, higher on Langford, or a combination of the two.

Barrett's point forward ability is on another level. Probably behind only LeBron and Luka among 18-year-old forwards in modern history. If not for that he'd be Wiggins 2.0 and I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Barrett's point forward ability is on another level. Probably behind only LeBron and Luka among 18-year-old forwards in modern history. If not for that he'd be Wiggins 2.0 and I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole.

Are you referring to his passing? That's something I forgot to mention in the first post... I definitely buy his vision. Has to be a more willing passer obviously, but his passing upside is probably top 5ish in the class.

I'm just grabbing for straws at this point... I really hate this draft class right now. I'm catching up on Barrett tape and his defense is just so, so bad. If he'd had just done ONE thing on offense consistently well, it'd be so much easier to feel comfortable with him. His Synergy page is disgusting.

Around Basket - 44th percentile
P&R BH including passes - 53rd percentile
Isolation - 59th percentile
Spot up - 49th percentile
Catch and Shoot - 41st percentile
Shots off the dribble - 64th percentile

 

[Nathan S]

Are you referring to his passing? That's something I forgot to mention in the first post... I definitely buy his vision. Has to be a more willing passer obviously, but his passing upside is probably top 5ish in the class.

I'm just grabbing for straws at this point... I really hate this draft class right now. I'm catching up on Barrett tape and his defense is just so, so bad. If he'd had just done ONE thing on offense consistently well, it'd be so much easier to feel comfortable with him. His Synergy page is disgusting.

Around Basket - 44th percentile
P&R BH including passes - 53rd percentile
Isolation - 59th percentile
Spot up - 49th percentile
Catch and Shoot - 41st percentile
Shots off the dribble - 64th percentile

Yeah, I mean, he can basically bring the ball up the court and run a real offense at the college level. To be able to do that at 6'7" and 18 years old is nuts. Unfortunate that every other facet of his game falls on the spectrum from underwhelming to horrifying

Also don't like the looks of this draft class after Zion. Not as cold on Langford as I used to be, but I still don't think he's a guy you can really build around. Meh.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Are you referring to his passing? That's something I forgot to mention in the first post... I definitely buy his vision. Has to be a more willing passer obviously, but his passing upside is probably top 5ish in the class.

I'm just grabbing for straws at this point... I really hate this draft class right now. I'm catching up on Barrett tape and his defense is just so, so bad. If he'd had just done ONE thing on offense consistently well, it'd be so much easier to feel comfortable with him. His Synergy page is disgusting.

Around Basket - 44th percentile
P&R BH including passes - 53rd percentile
Isolation - 59th percentile
Spot up - 49th percentile
Catch and Shoot - 41st percentile
Shots off the dribble - 64th percentile

Historically, NBA small forwards are really misused at the college level. Most don't, for one reason or another, get put in situations that maximize their talents. That's not to say Barrett can't wash out but statistically speaking, there's nothing too concerning in comparison to other NBA small forwards (that I see). If you look at the handful of guys (save Durant), that turned in to really good NBA players, none really had eye popping stats.

I just think that if you put a far less talented but better shooting team around him, that he looks like a totally different player in college. Given his frame, age and production, you just have to believe that he'll be a good NBA starter. I'm not super confident he'll be more than that but he seems like a safe bet to contribute as a quality point forward, someone who can provide a unique skill at the NBA level.

His defense is a lot less concerning to me after seeing their post-season run. His regular season tape is atrocious but he showed far more awareness and effort down the stretch, to indicate that he can just be average on that end, which is good enough if his offense translates.

 

[Nathan S]

Historically, NBA small forwards are really misused at the college level. Most don't, for one reason or another, get put in situations that maximize their talents. That's not to say Barrett can't wash out but statistically speaking, there's nothing too concerning in comparison to other NBA small forwards (that I see). If you look at the handful of guys (save Durant), that turned in to really good NBA players, none really had eye popping stats.

I just think that if you put a far less talented but better shooting team around him, that he looks like a totally different player in college. Given his frame, age and production, you just have to believe that he'll be a good NBA starter. I'm not super confident he'll be more than that but he seems like a safe bet to contribute as a quality point forward, someone who can provide a unique skill at the NBA level.

His defense is a lot less concerning to me after seeing their post-season run. His regular season tape is atrocious but he showed far more awareness and effort down the stretch, to indicate that he can just be average on that end, which is good enough if his offense translates.

A good NBA starter, sure. But I'm not really excited to draft a good starter at #2/#3. To keep things simple, I'd say he needs to do the following things to reach his ceiling:

-Become an efficient 3-point shooter
-Become an efficient inside-the-arc scorer
-Become a league-average defender

I think he has about a 50/50 chance of accomplishing each of those things individually, suggesting roughly a 10% percent chance he reaches his All-Star ceiling. Better than nothing, but not exciting in the high lottery.

 

[Ozone]

A good NBA starter, sure. But I'm not really excited to draft a good starter at #2/#3. To keep things simple, I'd say he needs to do the following things to reach his ceiling:

-Become an efficient 3-point shooter
-Become an efficient inside-the-arc scorer
-Become a league-average defender

I think he has about a 50/50 chance of accomplishing each of those things individually, suggesting roughly a 10% percent chance he reaches his All-Star ceiling. Better than nothing, but not exciting in the high lottery.

I think RJ's explosiveness and 2nd jump are extremely undervalued here. I see him as a sure fire all star at the next level with the obvious desire to be great making him a much more safe pick for most teams and why he is still considered a top 3 pick regardless of needing to work on a lot as if anyone in any draft doesn't.

 

[Nathan S]

I think RJ's explosiveness and 2nd jump are extremely undervalued here. I see him as a sure fire all star at the next level with the obvious desire to be great making him a much more safe pick for most teams and why he is still considered a top 3 pick regardless of needing to work on a lot as if anyone in any draft doesn't.

Are they? He's a good athlete, but not a great one. That, combined with his just-ok first step and just-ok handle make it hard for him to effectively attack a set defense at this point. I'm not ruling it out, but if he's not getting to the rim at will at the college level it's hard to pencil him in as an All-Star level slasher in the NBA.

 

[Cavatt]

Are they? He's a good athlete, but not a great one. That, combined with his just-ok first step and just-ok handle make it hard for him to effectively attack a set defense at this point. I'm not ruling it out, but if he's not getting to the rim at will at the college level it's hard to pencil him in as an All-Star level slasher in the NBA.

He had terrible spacing and spacing in college is not good anyway. I get your point though. Do you think he is Evan Turner?

 

[Nathan S]

He had terrible spacing and spacing in college is not good anyway. I get your point though. Do you think he is Evan Turner?

Maybe a little? He's just so young, is the thing. Turner was 19 for his entire freshman year, and averaged less than 10 ppg. It wasn't until he was a 21-year-old Junior that he started to look like the real deal. So on that front, Barrett's ahead of the curve and could develop into a much more skilled ballhandler/scorer/passer than Turner. Of course, there's still a range of outcomes where he's better than Evan Turner offensively but not All-Star caliber.

And on the other hand, Turner averaged around 3.0 steals+blocks per 40 his whole 3-year career, while Barrett managed just 1.5. So long story short, I think Barrett's offensive floor and ceiling are both significantly higher than Turner's, but he also has some defensive questionmarks that Turner never had.

Still think the best comp for Barrett is simply a worse all-around version of Doncic.