Never been this excited for the SB. I know the pundits wanted Rodgers vs Mahomes. QB vs QB is overrated media hype. This isn’t basketball. Mahomes and Rodgers don’t share the field.
49ers have been the most entertaining team to watch this season. That defense against Mahomes. I can’t wait to see that.
Also, something interesting to note - I think San Francisco is demonstrating something about schemes that analytics have not caught up with.
Sure, analytics is probably on to something:
on average, individual runningbacks do not matter. This fits with San Francisco. But, Shanahan ran the ball more times than any team other than the Ravens. Nonetheless, by success rate, they were only the 20th best rushing team, 7th for DVOA, and 5th best via PFF. The latter two are good, but when you watch them, it seems like the way they run makes a big difference.
But San Francisco runs the ball at an elite level on outside zone runs. They are eigh percent better than league average success on the left outside zone and three percent better on right outside zone. But, here is where I think some cool research could be conducted: the 49ers use the outside zone to draw safeties and linebackers into the outside, then they absolutely
destroy teams up the middle.
They average
11.4 yards per attempt on
75% completion with passes to the middle of the field and a 134.8 QBR. If you include passes to all areas of the field beyond 15 yards as well as passes up the middle below fifteen yards, the 49ers are averaging
12.1 yards per attempt on
69% completion percentage with a 127 QBR. The only team better than San Francisco here is Kansas City.
So while I acknowledge that the Chiefs are a more effective passing team, in a vacuum, I think a large part of the closeness in their passing offense deals with Shanahan's elite scheming. He uses the outside zone to open up the middle of the field and deep passing. Moreover, because the 49ers have destroyed most teams with their outside zone rushing, I see no reason why it will be different with Kansas City.
Add in the 49ers' defense and I really think this game will be close. San Francisco will destroy Kansas City with outside zone rushing and I think that will open the passing game enough for the 49ers' to keep up the scoring pace. The 49ers' defense is also just better and that will play a big role.
-All stats from Warren Sharp's website