2020-2021 Cavs Season General Discussion

[Sebastian]

The two teams sitting atop the West don't have a franchise player.

The team in 3rd drafted theirs in the 2nd round.

I mean hell, even the Clippers. Kawhi wasn't a lottery pick. Paul George was picked 10th.


There are other ways and there are examples all over the league atm.

What you are describing is atypical.

What are the odds of replicating Utah and Denver's success?

How many late picks have to work out to be very good players? What type of coaching does that require? What type of organization must one have to have years of patience in developing that team?

What are the chances of finding another late pick like Leonard? How often does that happen? What type of team not only identifies that talent late in the Draft, but has the patience to develop him?

Building teams in this fashion takes years and years and is also the hardest route to success. What leads one to believe this is replicable in Cleveland?

How or why is this preferable to simply landing a Top Five pick in a loaded Draft?

It is a lot to justify what amounts to as impatience, no?

Would you say that the longterm success of Colin Sexton and Darius Garland are best served by putting a franchise player next to them rather than winning a few extra games at the end of a lost season?

And I want to emphasize this is a lost season. It isn't as if the Cavs went into the season telling the kids to lose. They had their shot, yes they had many injuries, but they got plenty of development. They have holes that need to be filled.

 

[Sebastian]

If we suck, then won't we get good draft picks?

If we suck, it'll be because of an inept front office, not because we didn't have good enough picks.

That is a bad example. You are arguing that there is no difference in draft picks.

Are you suggesting that there is actually no difference between Doncic and Sexton? Or Zion or Garland?

 

[Derek]

That is a bad example. You are arguing that there is no difference in draft picks.

Are you suggesting that there is actually no difference between Doncic and Sexton? Or Zion or Garland?

I'm not arguing that at all

 

[Sebastian]

In any event, I have to run, but this is a whole lot to justify what amounts to impatience.

If the Cavs get unlucky for whatever reason, they get hot late and Draft at like 10, or they still manage a bottom five record and get screwed again, and they miss out on a lot of good players, I imagine we won't be seeing people here complain about it for the next... forever.

Let's revisit every year.

 

[cabs]

In any event, I have to run, but this is a whole lot to justify what amounts to impatience.

If the Cavs get unlucky for whatever reason, they get hot late and Draft at like 10, or they still manage a bottom five record and get screwed again, and they miss out on a lot of good players, I imagine we won't be seeing people here complain about it for the next... forever.

Let's revisit every year.

The difference between if we start tanking now vs trying to win is like 4%, is a 4% better chance of landing Cade really worth tanking the rest of the season? We gave ourselves a high chance to land Zion and watched a team with way more wins draft him as we slid back to 5th.

 

[FrontPageNews]

There’s people out there who actual want us to win this year?? What in the fuck does that accomplish?

 

[Derek]

In any event, I have to run, but this is a whole lot to justify what amounts to impatience.

If the Cavs get unlucky for whatever reason, they get hot late and Draft at like 10, or they still manage a bottom five record and get screwed again, and they miss out on a lot of good players, I imagine we won't be seeing people here complain about it for the next... forever.

Let's revisit every year.

I'd argue those in the tank crowd are the impatient ones.

It seems to me like they want to be a bottom 3 team in hopes of getting a player that immediately makes us relevant while I'm sitting here willing to watch this team improve incrementally year-to-year.

We were the equivalent of a 24-win team last year, 19 the year before. Right now, we're on a 30-win pace (across 82 games). I'm hoping we can be closer to 40 next year. We'll see from there.

 

[Sebastian]

The difference between if we start tanking now vs trying to win is like 4%, is a 4% better chance of landing Cade really worth tanking the rest of the season? We gave ourselves a high chance to land Zion and watched a team with way more wins draft him as we slid back to 5th.

It is not 4%. They don't need to the #1 this year to get the player they need.

Top 5 will probably do.

And for those interested the odds of drafting Top 4 go from 52% with the third worst record, to 13.9% at tenth worst, which, the Cavs could easily find themselves since the difference is about five wins between #3 and #10.

That is a a huge decrease in probability.

Moreover, it is a reverse sunk cost fallacy to say well they tanked last year and got screwed. The balls don't have memories. You don't fail again to win because you did in the past.

So lets be clear, the difference of five wins could be moving from a 50/50 chance at the Top 4 to 1-in-8.

 

[OptimusPrime]

I don't know what people are complaining about. Altman has done nothing to fast track the rebuild. They're playing Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens significant minutes. If the Cavs win too many games down the stretch, it's because the young players they already have are better than people think. Which was the point of the rebuild to begin with.

And while this draft has some nice prospects, we wouldn't be missing out on a LeBron James at the top. So if the players they have are too good for a top 5 pick, you try to find a George or Leonard or Giannis or Jokic or Mitchell wherever they end up picking.

 

[Sebastian]

I'd argue those in the tank crowd are the impatient ones.

It seems to me like they want to be a bottom 3 team in hopes of getting a player that immediately makes us relevant while I'm sitting here willing to watch this team improve incrementally year-to-year.

We were the equivalent of a 24-win team last year, 19 the year before. Right now, we're on a 30-win pace (across 82 games). I'm hoping we can be closer to 40 next year. We'll see from there.

Teams just don't incrementally improve to contention. There is no curve and no guarantee of success.

They are just as likely to get stuck at 40 wins and never improve.

And with this organization there is zero reason to think the patience and talent evaluation exists to run with the Utah or Denver model.

This is a talent driven league and the Cavs have no recent history of developing talent that wasn't a no-brainer. Choosing that path to success is an even bigger risk for long term losing than tanking. Though there is no guarantee there either. It is simply taking the best bet, which has admittedly gotten worse with the Lotto revisions.

 

[daddywags]

This is a really good, deep, draft. But there's no LeBron, there's no Zion, there's no Doncic. Every one of the guys typically listed among the top 4 or 5 have legit question marks.

 

[Sebastian]

I don't know what people are complaining about. Altman has done nothing to fast track the rebuild. They're playing Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens significant minutes. If the Cavs win too many games down the stretch, it's because the young players they already have are better than people think. Which was the point of the rebuild to begin with.

And while this draft has some nice prospects, we wouldn't be missing out on a LeBron James at the top. So if the players they have are too good for a top 5 pick, you try to find a George or Leonard or Giannis or Jokic or Mitchell wherever they end up picking.

It is even more of a flight of fancy in thinking they can identify a player of that quality late.

It is literally doubling down on the worst bet imaginable.

I truly hate to see this Forum in about two years time if the Cavs end up with like the 10th pick.

It will be like talking about those Brooklyn losses on steroids.

Have it your way, folks.

 

[OptimusPrime]

If Nance and Love would have played 2/3 of the games this season, this is probably a .500 team right now. All with three very young players carrying the load and visibly developing their games along the way. If you pick good players, it's not possible to tank forever.

 

[OptimusPrime]

It is even more of a flight of fancy in thinking they can identify a player of that quality late.

It is literally doubling down on the worst bet imaginable.

I truly hate to see this Forum in about two years time if the Cavs end up with like the 10th pick.

It will be like talking about those Brooklyn losses on steroids.

Have it your way, folks.

I don't understand what you want them to do. Bench Sexton and Garland? Bickerstaff would quit. And so would the players for that matter.

 

[Sebastian]

Gotta run.

I understand where ya'll are coming from.

Let's hope for some luck in any event.

The best outcome is closing the season on a high note and still getting a high pick.

Work on your karma. Do good deeds every day.