2020-2021 Cavs Season General Discussion

[AllforOne]

Smart drafting and savvy management absolutely matters more than anything else, I will not contest that. Development and finding good players outside the lottery is how the team we all admire (Utah, Denver, Portland, SAS) have earned their positions. And historically, those teams have tanked in smart ways. Utah for Mitchell, Denver for Murray, Portland for Dame, and while not recent SAS once threw away a season to get one Tim Duncan.

While I think all of your arguments miss the mark, I do appreciate your earnestness and attempt to make them seem logically sound.

That said: I do want to comment on this one particular paragraph, because it's just factually wrong.

Dame was taken 6th overall. Murray, 7th. Those are teams that *lost* in the lottery, not won it. Do you think the fans who are advocating that the Cavs tank are hoping they end up with the 6th or 7th overall pick so they can take, say, Jalen Johnson?

Mitchell was taken 13th overall; again, hardly tanking territory. More importantly, Utah didn't draft him. Utah had the 24th overall pick (i.e., they were a high playoff team the year before), and traded that pick plus Trey Lyles for Mitchell (who had been drafted by Denver) on draft night.

As for Duncan: SA didn't tank that season at all. They had won 62 and 59 games in the previous two seasons and were primed to do so again. Then David Robinson broke his foot and was lost for the season. That's not tanking; that's having your superstar go down to an injury. (Even then, they had to win the lottery -- 25% chance at best under the rules of that time -- to get the #1 pick. It was far, far more likely that they'd end up with Tony Battie or Keith Van Horn than Duncan.)

Losing does not necessarily mean tanking. Sometimes, your key players are injured. Sometimes, your team just sucks.

 

[ryanf]

Meh. Of the top ten seeds in each conference, the only ones that purposefully tanked for multiple seasons were the Sixers, Hawks, Knicks, Bulls, Suns, and arguably the Lakers (though I think they were more incompetence than intention pre-LeBron).

The Sixers pulled off an absurd and miserable process that still required great luck that Embiid broke his leg and fell to them at 3. If their rebuild instead starred Wiggins/Parker with Simmons.... Well, they're probably still tanking. Plus, with the evened out lottery odds, Philly's tank could have had them looking at picks 5, 3, 5, and 3 instead of 3, 3, 1, and 3.

The Suns had to bring in one of the five best culture setters in the league in CP3 to get them out of their losing ways, in addition to finally having some coaching / management competency between James Jones and Monty Williams (though passing on Haliburton stings).

The Lakers get to be the exception to every rule on how to run a franchise because of their history and location. If LeBron doesn't want to live in LA, they're still in purgatory.

The Knicks have been a laughing stock for 10+ years and have only started to shift their culture. We'll see where it goes. Tanking got them nowhere.

The Bulls tank led to them getting Markkanen, Coby White, Wendell Carter, and Patrick Williams... Three guys they basically gave up on and finally a guy that looks like he has real upside. They then made a short-sighted trade for a 30-year-old center in attempt to win immediately that cost them their future assets. (To me, there's a big difference between playing to win vs. jeopardizing your future assets to moderately improve a mediocre team.)

The Hawks tank netted them Trae Young, Cam Reddish, Deandre Hunter, and Okongwu. That's a pretty meh core. I realize that part of it is bad management to trade Luka for Trae & the pick that became Cam, but regardless, add them to the list of tanking fails.

Tanking is a difficult game to play and comes with zero promises. I'm not advocating the Cavs go all out, and force Kevin Love to play 37 mpg on a bum hamstring or rush Nance back from his illness, etc. But at some point, we need to see progress with our young guys (which we have), and openly resting our core to slightly improve our odds at a top-4 pick is a losing philosophy that I cannot get behind.

This is the best PoV IMHO, and i actually think the cavs is in a stable environment now and is starting to build that culture and reputation.

The drummond situation was handled very well, for those saying it wasn't, just look at okc and al horford.

The kpj situation is also well handled, just by the fact there were no words from kpj's camp to deny or downplay what had happened.

You see progressin sexton, garland and okoro.

Jarett allen was acquired almost for free, same as hartenstein.

Wade is an undrafted signing that was developed first in the g league.

There are a lot of things the org is doing right.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I wish they had just sent Porter home until he went through some anger management. I get that throwing food around the locker room and acting like a baby will get you released, not to mention the gun violation, so I can't be too critical.

But Porter has been playing for the Rockets for the last month. In his last game he had 14 points, 13 assists, and 6 rebounds in 31 minutes. 13 assists? I don't know if the Cavs have anybody who had a 13-assist game all year. Garland's high was 12 and that was in 44 minutes in a double OT game.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

You gotta love the way they managed to get Allen and Hartenstein for Exum, McGee, and Milwaukee's first round pick next year (will be a low one). Exum and McGee were on expiring contracts anyway. So was Drummond so they went from having nobody at center beyond this season to Allen and Hartenstein, a pair of 22-year-olds with high upsides in exchange for basically nothing. Those deals were huge.

 

[Rich]

Just because there are stars that people have found outside the top of the draft does not mean it happens often. For every Jokic and Butler, there are 10 guys who didn't make it to their second contract. On the flip side, there are way more top draft picks that look like trash to start and then figure stuff out because they have the talent. Randle is a great example of that (even though I think he is one of the worst allstars in the league right now). And as it is, just getting a star isn't enough. You need a superstar if you want to contend. There are probably less than 10 guys in the league right now that qualify. Only the two I mentioned plus Steph and Dame were not taken in the top 5. It is simply true that you are more likely to find a superstar at the top.

No.

There's Giannis. There's Kawhi.

There's two teams sitting at the top of the West w/o a guy you'd generally define as a superstar.

But even so, the best player on PHX (Booker) and the best and the best in Utah (Gobert) were both taken well outside of the top 5.


Here's a stat. Of the top 15 players in PER this season, only 5 were drafted in the top 5. Zion, LeBron, Harden, Kyrie, and Luka.


It's more common than people think.


And all of these players that are being talked about, a good number of them were guys who didn't come into the league looking like surefire superstars and took time to develop. That's what's being asked here. Just let the kids keep playing and developing.

Butler, Kawhi, Giannis. They didn't come into the league looking like they were gonna be carrying teams into the playoffs every year. That takes time.

 

[Cavatt]

No.

There's Giannis. There's Kawhi.

There's two teams sitting at the top of the West w/o a guy you'd generally define as a superstar.

But even so, the best player on PHX (Booker) and the best and the best in Utah (Gobert) were both taken well outside of the top 5.


Here's a stat. Of the top 15 players in PER this season, only 5 were drafted in the top 5. Zion, LeBron, Harden, Kyrie, and Luka.


It's more common than people think.


And all of these players that are being talked about, a good number of them were guys who didn't come into the league looking like surefire superstars and took time to develop. That's what's being asked here. Just let the kids keep playing and developing.

Butler, Kawhi, Giannis. They didn't come into the league looking like they were gonna be carrying teams into the playoffs every year. That takes time.

It's the one thing I have confidence in Koby with is drafting. He got guys that work hard and want to win. He hasn't egregiously missed on anyone. Even the guys they were torn over like Keldon Johnson seem to have panned out. I still think Okoro is going to be a really good player and i like his approach to the game.

Hartenstein and Allen were both great gets. I think we have maybe not Denver level scouting, but good enough that he can hit on somebody taken wherever and I am not scared of who takes in the next draft.

I don't think it is worth tanking to get slightly better odds. We still have a chance at a top 5 pick as long as they miss the playoffs, which seems very likely. Even then, there will be bust taken in the top 5 and a guy after that who will overperform most likely. Keep developing.

Taurean Prince said in his last interview that JB is the best coach he has had. I was a little shocked he said that out loud. He played for Bud, Pierce, Atkinson, and Nash. There have been problems with JB and his offense etc, but I heard some teams have had fewer than 10 practices all year and a shortened training camp. Maybe we ought to give it a little more time if the players love this guy so much. He has gotten them to buy in on defense, and that was the focus of the offseason. Maybe they try to focus on offense next year and we get a middle of the pack team and our young guys grow like you say.

I am different though because I just want a fun team that can make some noise in the playoffs. I don't expect to win it all again anytime soon. I will put that pressure on the team when we get a top 5/top 10 player.

 

[daytripper]

Picking up Kabengele on a 10 day contract is also interesting. I believe they had some interest in him coming out of Florida State before the '19 draft but took Windler one pick ahead of him. His uncle is Dikembe Mutombo so he does have some NBA lineage.
The Clippers tried to turn Kabengele into a stretch 4 which failed but that is not his game at all. Maybe he doesn't stick but still only 23 so this is the kind of gamble the Cavs should be taking esp with all the injuries in the frontcourt.

 

[Lee]

Picking up Kabengele on a 10 day contract is also interesting. I believe they had some interest in him coming out of Florida State before the '19 draft but took Windler one pick ahead of him. His uncle is Dikembe Mutombo so he does have some NBA lineage.
The Clippers tried to turn Kabengele into a stretch 4 which failed but that is not his game at all. Maybe he doesn't stick but still only 23 so this is the kind of gamble the Cavs should be taking esp with all the injuries in the frontcourt.

He has played a total of 158 NBA minutes in 2 years over 35 games. One year he shot 45% from 3, next he shot 22% from three. He has shot a total of 39 3-pointers is his career.

Basically not sure what he is. He is big and athletic and has some range. Clippers didnt give him a shot, but they are in win now mode so they probably needed the roster spot. He was a draft day trade, he was traded to the Kings earlier in the season for cash to make room for trades, then the Kings made a bunch of deadline trades and cut him and Jabari to make room for the trades. He still has some potential for sure.

In the g-league he shot 33% from 3 on 6 attempts a game in 27 games. I am not sure he ends up being a 40% 3-point shooter, but he has legit NBA center size with athletic ability and just a brute. If he is taking 1 or 2 attempts a game, the 33% is just fine, it stretches. I have no idea if he can play defense to be honest, the fact his uncle is Dikembe means he can get some very good offseason help on how to play defense, lol

 

[inliner311]

Just because there are stars that people have found outside the top of the draft does not mean it happens often. For every Jokic and Butler, there are 10 guys who didn't make it to their second contract. On the flip side, there are way more top draft picks that look like trash to start and then figure stuff out because they have the talent. Randle is a great example of that (even though I think he is one of the worst allstars in the league right now). And as it is, just getting a star isn't enough. You need a superstar if you want to contend. There are probably less than 10 guys in the league right now that qualify. Only the two I mentioned plus Steph and Dame were not taken in the top 5. It is simply true that you are more likely to find a superstar at the top.

Smart drafting and savvy management absolutely matters more than anything else, I will not contest that. Development and finding good players outside the lottery is how the team we all admire (Utah, Denver, Portland, SAS) have earned their positions. And historically, those teams have tanked in smart ways. Utah for Mitchell, Denver for Murray, Portland for Dame, and while not recent SAS once threw away a season to get one Tim Duncan.

Tanking is a totally valid strategy but you still need to not be an idiot. Otherwise you take Nik Stauskas in the lottery or do whatever the heck Phx was doing before getting CP3. Sometimes, you can still be an idiot and get the call right. Otherwise the Paxson wouldn't have taken LeBron.

Why do I think tanking is the right move for the Cavs? Look at our young talent. I love our core group of guys (SexLand, Okoro, LNJ, Allen), but none of them project to be more than a 2a or 2b guy on a contender. We still need our franchise player. This draft looks like it will have 4+ of them, compared to the 1-2 in the average draft. We don't even need to tank THAT hard. You could argue that we could trade for one or find them in free agency. But we haven't got a big budget FA since Larry Hughes (Lowry and Hayward QOs not withstanding). Trading for a blue chipper that is young happens once a decade at best (Harden being the most notable recent one). So the draft is our best chance. I would rather bet on the probability of more ping pong balls than a miracle jump from 8 to 2.

Now, you could argue that aggressive tanking builds a losing culture. I agree and I think it is fairly obvious if you look around the league. Teams like Sacramento have been trash for years and they even had a top 10 guy in Boogie for a few years. But if you take a look at the current team we have, I don't think that will happen. Players like Sexton and Okoro have the right attitude that you want to build your culture around. With them leading the way, I am confident we will be able to build the kind of hard working culture that teams like Miami have built. And beyond that, I am not advocating for a multi-year crazy tank where we bench all our young guys. I just want us to tank for the rest of this season to get good odds.

The last argument I have seen is that the team is more fun to watch when they win. I think that's a fair argument, but frankly if I am a basketball decision maker and my goal is to win a championship, how pretty the product is should not matter. I should make the decisions that maximize my ability to win.

The way I look at it is how many potential franchise guys there are in a draft and how likely you can get into that range to secure one of those players. As you said there looks like there are 4+ type of those kind of players in this draft.

With the new odds, teams are more likely to get jumped in the lottery. I view tanking now as trying to secure a worse case scenario rather than trying to get the best odds of getting the #1 pick. I believe that if there was a draft since our rebuild to make sure we secure a top 5 pick that it should be this draft.

I haven't gone on a deep dive on the draft but it seems like the drop off that is usually at 5 or 6 is a tier higher than previous drafts. The number 5 or 6 could be a tier 1b or tier 2 player while in most drafts your looking at a tier 3 or 4 player.

 

[ansatsusha80]

No one goes into a Draft saying "Oh, I want to fuck up."

And tanking has only been a marginal tool for the past few years.

Hinkie gets a lot shit, but had things gone slightly different he'd still have a job there because ultimately he had his shot to get the players he needed and whiffed on them. He failed in the second part of the equation.

Hinkie gets alot of shit because he's the reason why the league changed the draft lottery. He tanked for four straight years and got two #1's picks and two #3's picks in that time period and have the audacity have a slogan saying Trust the Process...wtf

 

[Rich]

I guess the other thing I have an issue with is when people say things "pointless wins" or w/e.

Look, man, at its core the point of sport is 1) to compete and 2) to win.

If a win is "pointless" then everything about the sport is pointless. By definition.

Competing for the sake of competition, to me, is a worthwhile endeavor.

I'm turned off by the idea of intentional tanking not because I'm impatient, but because it's the antithesis of the reason we play sport.

 

[Ohioplayer00]

Koby draft decisions are only as good as the information his scouting department gives and our scouting department has left a lot to be desired over the years.

 

[foucault87]

There is absolutely weight to certain kinds of wins. Does winning a random game in January (of a normal season) mean anything for a playoff team? Probably not.

As a young rising team, I would say all of our wins matter for the players but if your goal is to win a championship then trying to win every game is a farce. Especially when you are severely lacking in talent.

If you're a developing team low on talent, then I'm not interested in winning every random game. I want to see improvement. For the current Cavs, I would want us to win games against top teams (like we've done vs philly and bkn) and lose against everyone else (like we messed up vs okc).

 

[natedagg]

I think we did tank, by and large. We let Love sit forever, had Drummond not even play, and gave our young guys plenty of minutes, including having a rookie guard the best players. So we let ourselves underperform, and we sort of did underperform what our roster might otherwise suggest, with a little bit of luck in a way.
Even now we have Allen and Nance out.
It’s pretty unlucky and if we still win, then good. Said another way, maybe we pick 7th and if we had a statistically normal year of games missed from our guys, maybe we’d have picked 10th.

 

[weepinwillow]

don't tank, play to win, pick BPA on your board in the draft and sign free agents that fit. The only time to tank is at the end of the year when circumstances have forced you into "next year" imo.

Koby draft decisions are only as good as the information his scouting department gives and our scouting department has left a lot to be desired over the years.

I don't agree with this at all:
Sexton has arguably been the best player taken from his spot on, and if they continue to play him off the ball he's going to be much better. If you believe the Luka draft day deal was actually there for the Cavs, then that's my only real issue here.
Garland looks pretty good right now.
Windler looks like he has a place in the NBA once he gets his legs and 3 down.
Porter had been looking like a possible cornerstone, we can blame Koby for taking the risk, I guess.
Okoro, imo, is potentially the best of the bunch once he fully develops his jumper.
His trade for Allen was great.
Acquiring Nance was good as well.In fact his entire mid-season pivot off the awful Thomas/Irving deal was really well done (a deal I am totally sold as being a Dan Gilbert meddling deal).
His end of bench pick ups like Wade, Stevens, Isiah and Thomas are good flyers.
I'd say his downside is his coaching hire in Beilien, trading for Andre Drummond, maybe drafting Garland when you already had Sexton (but who was the better choice? and besides, Sexton is not a PG) and being snake bitten by injury.
Cavs have more wins this year than last, and last year than the prior year... it took the Suns 5 years to get over the hump, and that was only after they traded for a great veteran PG.
I don't know, Koby is doing OK. Needs health and one more good roster move, imo.