2020-21 Offseason Discussion

[petes999]

How does service time accrue? What is it July 31? 9.8? Does that count as 10? Think super 2 status and games played.

 

[Gson]

..

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Who is Aaron Civale?

In his first nine starts for the Indians he went 54.1 innings with a 1.82 ERA. In his next 13 starts he went 77.1 innings with a 5.00 ERA.

Obviously the 1.82 ERA is not something we're going to see from him (or any pitcher in baseball) over a full season. But is he a rich man's Josh Tomlin or a poor man's Andy Plutko?

I don't know if the broken up and abbreviated spring training affected his stuff or if hitters got a better idea of what to swing at and what to lay off after one time through the league. I guess we'll start finding out in April.

As for all these AA and AAA pitchers that are "near ready" I would ask - Near ready for what? Near ready to replace Mike Clevinger? Near ready to go 8-10 as a #5 starter? Near ready to take Cimber's spot?

For example, Sam Hentges had a 5.11 ERA in AA in 2019. Last season he only pitched at the alternate site. What makes anybody think he's "near ready" to pitch in the majors? He's also 24 years old. I get that he's 6'6" and throws left-handed - that don't make him Randy Johnson Lite. But...sometimes pitchers who are very tall need a long time to get all those long levers synchronized. Andrew Miller had a 5.86 ERA after six big league seasons where he was up and down, never appearing in more than 29 games. At age 27 he finally arrived but didn't become a dominant pitcher until age 29.

I think it's pretty straightforward; trade Lindor and Carrasco, getting at least one blue chip outfielder, a first baseman, and a loogie who are ready to play in the bigs immediately. The first baseman replaces Santana, the blue chip outfielder and Naylor nail down two outfield spots with everybody else (Mercado, Johnson, Luplow) competing for the third one. Goodbye Naquin and DeShields. Owen Miller or Chang starts at second and we sign a veteran SS to a one-year deal like with Hernandez last year. Then we have a full season to see who emerges from the minors this year and who doesn't.

 

[sportscoach]

Who is Aaron Civale?

In his first nine starts for the Indians he went 54.1 innings with a 1.82 ERA. In his next 13 starts he went 77.1 innings with a 5.00 ERA.

Obviously the 1.82 ERA is not something we're going to see from him (or any pitcher in baseball) over a full season. But is he a rich man's Josh Tomlin or a poor man's Andy Plutko?

I don't know if the broken up and abbreviated spring training affected his stuff or if hitters got a better idea of what to swing at and what to lay off after one time through the league. I guess we'll start finding out in April.

As for all these AA and AAA pitchers that are "near ready" I would ask - Near ready for what? Near ready to replace Mike Clevinger? Near ready to go 8-10 as a #5 starter? Near ready to take Cimber's spot?

For example, Sam Hentges had a 5.11 ERA in AA in 2019. Last season he only pitched at the alternate site. What makes anybody think he's "near ready" to pitch in the majors? He's also 24 years old. I get that he's 6'6" and throws left-handed - that don't make him Randy Johnson Lite. But...sometimes pitchers who are very tall need a long time to get all those long levers synchronized. Andrew Miller had a 5.86 ERA after six big league seasons where he was up and down, never appearing in more than 29 games. At age 27 he finally arrived but didn't become a dominant pitcher until age 29.

I think it's pretty straightforward; trade Lindor and Carrasco, getting at least one blue chip outfielder, a first baseman, and a loogie who are ready to play in the bigs immediately. The first baseman replaces Santana, the blue chip outfielder and Naylor nail down two outfield spots with everybody else (Mercado, Johnson, Luplow) competing for the third one. Goodbye Naquin and DeShields. Owen Miller or Chang starts at second and we sign a veteran SS to a one-year deal like with Hernandez last year. Then we have a full season to see who emerges from the minors this year and who doesn't.

I would put good money down we arent trading Carrasco at the end of the day.

They stated 3 players for Lindor, that are at MLB ready/close to MLB ready and with no depth at C and no production from the OF, I think the Indians will look to upgrade that over 1B. Its either best talent or production in the OF plus prospects. 1B is the least of their worries.

 

[petes999]

First, Hentges got a 1/2 season at AA in 2019. I assume he wasn't playing twiddle wings in Lake last year. I would count that to at least 1/2 season against AA/AAA talent in pitching to at least Jones, Bradley, Zimmer, etc. Plus, a pitching coach probably giving tips during simulated games (because who cares if you tip off a hitter that a curve is coming). He better be near ready because next year is his last option. Yet, I doubt he will surge past Civale, Quantrill nor L Allen as a starter (at first). I see the 91-95 fastball touching 96 may play up in a relief role (especially as a loogy type). Same with Mejia.

Second, Civale and .4 WAR in a shortened season isn't bad for a 5th starter. I think there will be a competition for 4th/5th slot with Allen, Quant and Civale with loser(s) going to pen. Beib/Plesac/Cookie or Mck are your top 3. I think Cookie has more value in trades come June/July (so teams can make sure his strength is still there (2.91 ERA last year vs 5.5 year before) and it protects your younger starters for them to grow a bit more. And, by 2022, McK should have #3 role locked up (and not on a pitch count for season). And, who says, Civale, now with about year of experience (22 games played) won't learn to become a finesse pitcher.

And, now one is going to replace Clev and Bauer as the back-up ace (1b) on our staff next year. McK is the closest. I see Plesac as a solid #2 but not ace potential. But, we aren't going to get that player in a trade either to fill that role. And, even if we do trade the farm for a May (Lindor plus), we don't have the hitting yet to make a deep run in 2021 and May is only slightly ahead of McK in my mind (due to less injury history).

2021 will be a weeding out period to see who we have and see who will cut it long term (e.g. Naylor, Bradley, Jones, etc.). So might as well bring up Hentges and Mejia in July/August (Sept latest) and see what they may bring in 2022.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Yes, this will be a weeding out year. It's possible they hang onto Cookie until the trade deadline but that would mean paying him $6 million so I think they trade him before the season if they get any kind of reasonable offer.

I don't know if McKenzie can make 30 starts in a season without injury. He's been incredibly injury prone and none of his injuries were caused by a line drive, tripping over first base, etc. He hurts himself just throwing the ball and at 165 pounds I wonder if he can pitch every five days for 6+ months. But he should be in the rotation when the season starts and let's see how far he can go.

We all hope the time spent at the alternate site was a period of intense coaching and skill/pitch development for guys like Hentges and the other minor leaguers who were there. Maybe Jake Bauers fixed his swing. Maybe Zimmer fixed his swing. Maybe some pitchers made huge strides. We don't know. I haven't heard any progress reports on anybody. I'm surprised there wasn't more information coming out. It was total radio silence.

 

[sportscoach]

Yes, this will be a weeding out year. It's possible they hang onto Cookie until the trade deadline but that would mean paying him $6 million so I think they trade him before the season if they get any kind of reasonable offer.

I don't know if McKenzie can make 30 starts in a season without injury. He's been incredibly injury prone and none of his injuries were caused by a line drive, tripping over first base, etc. He hurts himself just throwing the ball and at 165 pounds I wonder if he can pitch every five days for 6+ months. But he should be in the rotation when the season starts and let's see how far he can go.

We all hope the time spent at the alternate site was a period of intense coaching and skill/pitch development for guys like Hentges and the other minor leaguers who were there. Maybe Jake Bauers fixed his swing. Maybe Zimmer fixed his swing. Maybe some pitchers made huge strides. We don't know. I haven't heard any progress reports on anybody. I'm surprised there wasn't more information coming out. It was total radio silence.

When does Carrasco get his 10/5 this season?

We have little knowledge on how guys progressed down there so thats another random question that we won't know until spring training.

 

[CDAV45]

When does Carrasco get his 10/5 this season?

We have little knowledge on how guys progressed down there so thats another random question that we won't know until spring training.

I believe Cookie establishes his 10/5 rights after the 21 season. This is the last offseason that he doesn't have the rights to deny a trade to certain teams.

 

[sportscoach]

I believe Cookie establishes his 10/5 rights after the 21 season. This is the last offseason that he doesn't have the rights to deny a trade to certain teams.

Its during the season he gets his 10/5 not after, I know that much, I just dont know if its before or after the trade deadline.

Also if Carrasco starts this season in the Cleveland Uniform then he is staying in Cleveland to finish out his current contract.

 

[jup]

Carrasco i believe gets his 10/5 during this season (if I remember correctly) so its either trade him in the off season or not at all.

Its during the season he gets his 10/5 not after, I know that much, I just dont know if its before or after the trade deadline.

• ML service: 9.147

So you read this as 9 years 147 days. A major league season technically has 186 days (I believe but it could be 183) - which is made up of 162 games, the allstar break, and about 20 days off.

That would mean Cookie would reach 10/5 rights 39 days (186-147) into the season. Approximately the 2nd week of May if the season starts out liked normal (April 1st ish) and 10/5 rights are awarded during the season versus at seasons end.

 

[Steve_424]

It's possible they hang onto Cookie until the trade deadline but that would mean paying him $6 million so I think they trade him before the season if they get any kind of reasonable offer.

If the Indians are saying they can't afford Cookie AFTER trading Lindor it's time to sell. And this is coming from someone who supports the Dolans.

 

[CDAV45]

I'm confident they'll trade him before his 10/5 rights take effect, and the reasons are logical.
- After Lindor, he's the most expensive contract, but that contract is well below his actual value.
- The SP depth is the strength of this team, and there are more coming.
- Trading Carrasco would help to secure this team's ability to compete over the next few years.

Ultimately, trading Carrasco just makes too much sense for this team in the current conditions. If the SP depth wasn't so strong and the offense in need of a potent bat or 2 then I wouldn't even contemplate dealing him, but that's not the reality of the situation. I want this team to avoid trading one of their best players every damn year. Get to a point where we will have a fairly set roster with a payroll that will allow them to take on a more expensive contract to help when/if needed. Trading Lindor, Carrasco, and even Ramirez would do that, but it won't be popular at the time for the common fan. Then again, neither is trading a fan favorite every year.

 

[sportscoach]

I'm confident they'll trade him before his 10/5 rights take effect, and the reasons are logical.
- After Lindor, he's the most expensive contract, but that contract is well below his actual value.
- The SP depth is the strength of this team, and there are more coming.
- Trading Carrasco would help to secure this team's ability to compete over the next few years.

Ultimately, trading Carrasco just makes too much sense for this team in the current conditions. If the SP depth wasn't so strong and the offense in need of a potent bat or 2 then I wouldn't even contemplate dealing him, but that's not the reality of the situation. I want this team to avoid trading one of their best players every damn year. Get to a point where we will have a fairly set roster with a payroll that will allow them to take on a more expensive contract to help when/if needed. Trading Lindor, Carrasco, and even Ramirez would do that, but it won't be popular at the time for the common fan. Then again, neither is trading a fan favorite every year.

If Carrasco gets traded, my guess isn't with Lindor, but to Tampa Bay. He lives in Tampa, and Tampa has a need for him as well. He fits into the type of contract they like to have in a sense.

I actually would put good money Carrasco doesnt get traded at the end of the day. He is going to retire either in Cleveland or Tampa.

 

[Steve_424]

I worry about trading Cookie, at least now.

Bieber and Plesac are sure things but after that? We have no idea what Civale will be. McKenzie has durability concerns. Plutko isn't a good option. Moss, Allen, and Rodriguez are unknowns at the ML level. Quantrill is too, at least as a starter.

Our strength could fall spart pretty quickly if you trade Cookie.

 

[CDAV45]

If Carrasco gets traded, my guess isn't with Lindor, but to Tampa Bay. He lives in Tampa, and Tampa has a need for him as well. He fits into the type of contract they like to have in a sense.

I actually would put good money Carrasco doesnt get traded at the end of the day. He is going to retire either in Cleveland or Tampa.

Agreed. If Lindor and Carrasco are traded it won't be in the same deal.

I worry about trading Cookie, at least now.

Bieber and Plesac are sure things but after that? We have no idea what Civale will be. McKenzie has durability concerns. Plutko isn't a good option. Moss, Allen, and Rodriguez are unknowns at the ML level. Quantrill is too, at least as a starter.

Our strength could fall spart pretty quickly if you trade Cookie.

As of now, the depth would be Bieber, Plesac, Quantrill, McKenzie, Civale, Allen, Moss, Rodriguez, Hentges, Mejia before any additions from the trades. Don't get me wrong, there is certainly risk involved, but we're talking about a season where a lot of young players are gonna have to prove themselves. This retooling shouldn't be done by dealing a piece here, then dealing another next season for less of a return, and another the year after. That list I give is a pretty good list and it will likely get deeper during or after the 21 season when any of Hankins, Cantillo, Humphreys, or Oviedo get another year under their belts. There is also an almost certainty that a SP or 2 will be available on a cost effective 1 yr deal. The Indians have a pretty good record of those types of signings.