2020 MLB Draft: Barebones edition

[LL3]

So we drafted left-handed pitcher named Logan Allen in the second round. What are the odds of that happening?

Actually not too bad based on what I just read about him. Highly polished, good command, pitcher who stays within himself and knows how to pitch. Another WYSIWYG sort of pick. They seem to be playing it safe this year. Or cheap?

Agree as to safe, but why cheap? Slotted draft -- not much to save. Tribe spends $ in the Minors and International Draft.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

With pitching they prioritize command really before anything else. If you have great command at throw at least 90 on your fastball, you can pitch in the pros.

Now i dont disagree with them drafting OF prospects though, but both guys you mentioned are still both really young. Athletically they are both very impressive but they both have to figure out their bats. We have to wait a few more years to see how they are doing, but most teams miss on a lot of prospects.

I mean its not uncommon to see 20-30 players signed in a draft and then only 5 make it to the bigs and 2-3 stay in the bigs long term. The Indians scouting for pitching has been likely the best in baseball for a few years now, so they may as well just keep what they are doing and not change the plans. Position players, they are going best athletes available, so maybe in a few years they gotta change that, but right now there A ball team looks stacked and I think in a few years that could really be something to look forward too.

Holmes hit .175 in A ball last year - his third season as a pro. He'll be 21 next month. Not looking good. Benson had a nice year in low A at age 21 but hit only .189 in 217 AB's in high A. They're both young but it looks like the Indians are pushing them along too quickly.

 

[LL3]

One element that will get minimal coverage after the five round draft is complete -- all the other (unpicked) draft eligibles are free agents that can sign for MAX $20K bonuses. The odds of these guys becoming productive major leaguers are slim, but there are plenty of guys in the Show that were drafted after the 5th round. This is an opportunity for the Tribe in that it is a level financial playing field, so hopefully they can pluck a few guys they really like.

EDIT -- Did not see this noted above -- well said!

 

[LL3]

Holmes hit .175 in A ball last year - his third season as a pro. He'll be 21 next month. Not looking good. Benson had a nice year in low A at age 21 but hit only .189 in 217 AB's in high A. They're both young but it looks like the Indians are pushing them along too quickly.

Holmes would seem like sunk as a prospect, but Benson still has a shot because beyond average, his tools are very strong...power, speed, even a decent walk rate. Unlikely, but not a lost cause, yet...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

CBSports weighs in, giving the Indians a "B":

"Good value throughout for the Indians. First rounder Carson Tucker was a hot name leading up to the draft and he's a potential impact shortstop at the next level. Competitive Balance Round A pick Tanner Burns was one of the best and most accomplished pitchers in the draft class, and second rounder Logan Allen is exactly the kind of pitcher the Indians tend to take to the next level through player development. Cleveland is really corning the market on Logan Allens (Logans Allen?)."

 

[LL3]

This Draft talk makes me miss Major and Minor League baseball all the more...sad state of affairs.

 

[sportscoach]

Holmes hit .175 in A ball last year - his third season as a pro. He'll be 21 next month. Not looking good. Benson had a nice year in low A at age 21 but hit only .189 in 217 AB's in high A. They're both young but it looks like the Indians are pushing them along too quickly.

If you cannot hit at A ball then it doesn't matter, so they arent rushing them in my mind. They have to produce where they are at. Both guys needed this season to work on their games, so 21 will be a make or break in that sense.

 

[Derek]

Holmes hit .175 in A ball last year - his third season as a pro. He'll be 21 next month. Not looking good. Benson had a nice year in low A at age 21 but hit only .189 in 217 AB's in high A. They're both young but it looks like the Indians are pushing them along too quickly.

Benson was repeating Lake County! He played 185 games there!

Holmes was drafted in 2017. He's dealt with some injuries but in his 3rd year of pro ball, he needed to be playing full-season baseball.

They are not being pushed quickly at all. It's been quite the opposite, in fact.

 

[sportscoach]

@BimboColesHair @MadThinker88 (invite peeps who know the draft if possible since i don't remember who is all who with the new peeps) @Derek

So what did everyone think of the draft?

Honestly i trust the FO when it comes to pitching. It felt like all three guys were solid command and solid floors. May not be the highest of ceilings but they all look like they should be solid in the pros.


Now we went with all high school bats. They got two more middle INFs and an OF. The analysts were high on the day two picks. As Wham pointed out we haven't been great at developing OF prospects, but with the amount of middle INF prospects, I would be very surprised within the next few years if we didn't have a legit player at 2B, SS and 3B up to the pros shortly.

Personally i wanted a college bat, someone who could come up a little quicker, but we still have time to get a few more guys in free agency, which most i feel will be college guys. (I almost would advise the high school kids to play a season in college, but we will get a mix of both i am sure)

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Do you get the idea the Indians really feel they can improve the fastball velocity of college pitchers by a tick or two? They keep drafting guys who throw in the low 90's at best but have great command and three effective pitches. Maybe they think a couple of years of throwing those weighted baseballs and using other advanced techniques will add just enough velo to go with the command and pitch variety.

It's interesting that they're not afraid to use high (and in this year scarce) draft picks on short pitchers who lack velo.

Replying to myself...I found this from Jeff Ellis at IBI on Hickman:

"While he has been great at Vanderbilt, he has not added any velocity. It stands to note over the last few years, Vanderbilt’s pitcher development has been an issue with several players underperforming or seeming to not develop...The performance is there, but the Indians might think they can unlock more. When he got to Vandy every assumed he would add velocity, the Indians have had a lot of success finding another gear with other college arms."

If they can "find another gear" with this guy then we could end up with a decent MOR/BOR starter in the 5th round. If not, we have a 6'6" Josh Tomlin.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Benson was repeating Lake County! He played 185 games there!

Holmes was drafted in 2017. He's dealt with some injuries but in his 3rd year of pro ball, he needed to be playing full-season baseball.

They are not being pushed quickly at all. It's been quite the opposite, in fact.

Thanks for the info. Any time I see a minor league player failing spectacularly I assume it was because the organization overestimated his progress and assigned him to a level too high for where he needs to be. I should have done the research.

 

[Derek]

Replying to myself...I found this from Jeff Ellis at IBI on Hickman:

"While he has been great at Vanderbilt, he has not added any velocity. It stands to note over the last few years, Vanderbilt’s pitcher development has been an issue with several players underperforming or seeming to not develop...The performance is there, but the Indians might think they can unlock more. When he got to Vandy every assumed he would add velocity, the Indians have had a lot of success finding another gear with other college arms."

If they can "find another gear" with this guy then we could end up with a decent MOR/BOR starter in the 5th round. If not, we have a 6'6" Josh Tomlin.

Not every guy without a good fastball is Josh Tomlin.

Tomlin couldn't even strike guys out in college at Texas Tech, Hickman was at 12+ K/9 in the SEC.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Just watched the MLB.com commentary on the Hickman pick by Dan O'Dowd. "Tremendous deception" and "his fastball plays up". The guy may not throw hard but he averaged 10.2 K's per 9 at Vandy and went 19-2.

O'Dowd added that "without a doubt they (Indians) have won day two". He said they used the money saved with the Carson Tucker pick and applied it deeper in the draft.

I don't understand this. I get that Tucker wasn't expected to go that high and was generally seen as a 2nd-3rd round pick. Does that mean he'll sign for less that a guy that was ranked 23rd and picked in the 23rd spot? Or does he say that most teams undervalued him and he deserves to be paid where he was drafted?

Also, he's a high school player. He can go to college if he doesn't like the offer. College seniors are the ones to have to take whatever they're offered since they have no options but to turn pro other than playing in Japan or independent ball.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Not every guy without a good fastball is Josh Tomlin.

Tomlin couldn't even strike guys out in college at Texas Tech, Hickman was at 12+ K/9 in the SEC.

Yeah, every time a I see right-handed starter who throws in the high 80's but succeeds with pinpoint command and a solid pitch mix I automatically think Josh Tomlin. Or Paul Byrd.

If I'm not mistaken Trevor Bauer had a lot of success in 2018 mixing a high fastball with a hook. Hickman's fastball doesn't have Bauer's velo but it's been described as having the best vertical movement in the draft. His curve is his best secondary pitch. So maybe the combination of the high heater with big vertical movement and the curve dropping out of the same tunnel will work for him. Isn't that Karinchak's formula, speaking of guys who get a lot of strikeouts?

 

[Derek]

Just watched the MLB.com commentary on the Hickman pick by Dan O'Dowd. "Tremendous deception" and "his fastball plays up". The guy may not throw hard but he averaged 10.2 K's per 9 at Vandy and went 19-2.

O'Dowd added that "without a doubt they (Indians) have won day two". He said they used the money saved with the Carson Tucker pick and applied it deeper in the draft.

I don't understand this. I get that Tucker wasn't expected to go that high and was generally seen as a 2nd-3rd round pick. Does that mean he'll sign for less that a guy that was ranked 23rd and picked in the 23rd spot? Or does he say that most teams undervalued him and he deserves to be paid where he was drafted?

Also, he's a high school player. He can go to college if he doesn't like the offer. College seniors are the ones to have to take whatever they're offered since they have no options but to turn pro other than playing in Japan or independent ball.

They wouldn't have drafted him in the first round if they didn't think they would sign him. But yes, I assume he'll be an underslot signing. Some of that may go toward Tanner Burns, who was rated higher than where we drafted him, or maybe some of our other picks.