2020 MLB Draft: Barebones edition

[MadThinker88]

More review of the Tribe 2020 draft class...

Indians Draft Analysis • Prospects Worldwide

Top 20 Prospects Rankings, MLB Draft, Dynasty Baseball, Player Breakdowns, Scouting Reports, Data Analysis, Podcasts, Mock Drafts, Player Ranks, and more! Backed by Analytics & Scouting Mentality

prospectsworldwide.com

 

[CATS44]

I guess I'm not as concerned about our drafting of OFs as some on here, although the recent results have been...uh...lousy.

I'd much rather draft athletic players who have good contact skills and some plate discipline. It's still IMO easier to develop power than develop contact skills...esp when you consider that the vast majority of young draftees are gonna physically develop.

Does anybody think that, given some time to work at it, Lindor or JRam couldn't develop into fine defensive OFs? And, remember, neither of them hit for power when they were first signed. Just as you cant have too many pitchers, you cant have too many MIFs in the org. If enough of them can hit, some will be in an MLB outfield.

The HOF could build a wing just for OFs that began as infielders.


Just a few:

Mantle
Aaron
Doby
Ott
Yount
Irvin

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

First off I feel we havent done a great job with OF prospects lately, but i will list the guys we drafted that could have played OF within the first 15ish rounds.

In 14, the Indians drafted Papi and Greg Allen. Allen is a legit AAAA/4th OF guy. So getting him in the 6th round is a perfectly solid pick. Papi flopped sadly

In 15, We drafted Kreiger, Nathan Lukes and Ka'ai Tom. Kreiger flopped at AA, but is still within the organization. Tom could possibly make MLB in due time, since hes honestly the next man to be added to the 40 man roster in the OF. Lukes is with Tampa and struggled at AAA.

In 16, we drafted Capel, Michael Tinsley, Hosea Nelson, Andrew Calica, and Mitch Longo. Capel got traded, but he looked actually pretty good,, Tinsley flopped, Calica retired. Nelson never got it together. Longo could be a AAAA in due time, but i don't expect much more out of him.

Now Jones could become an OF, we also drafted a legit Ace and two more possible rotation guys. So that draft was a success.

In 17, we drafted, Holmes, Johnathan Rodriguez, Austen Wade, who didnt get above A ball honestly. Wade is an older prospect so i don't expect anything out of him.

In 18, we drafted Kwan and Holland. Some peeps like Kwan while Holland was a top 150 prospect on that draft who fell, so its too early to tell.

So in all honesty we havent done great job drafting OF, but we actually don't focus on drafting OFs. Mercado wasn't an OF, until a season before we got him so its not like INF cannot become OFs.

I mean if you look how many we have drafted, and with the % that actually make the pros, we havent done all that bad. Personally i would like to see us draft more college bats and I have stated that, but i gotta trust an FO who has been putting together playoff teams for many years with spending very limited money within free agency.

You forgot Will Benson, our 1st round pick in 2016 (14th overall). He has a career .212 average in the low minors. He hit .189 last year in high A. He turns 22 tomorrow.

As for Greg Allen, I'll be surprised if he's on the major league roster this year much less being the fourth outfielder. They traded for DeShields to take the late inning pinch runner/defensive replacement spot. Why would they ask for DeShields in the Clase deal if they like Allen?

I agree they may be counting on some of the HS shortstops to switch to the outfield at some point, but with the exception of Chisenhall, when has that happened? If that were happening why did they trade for Reyes, Mercado, Luplow, DeShields, Johnson and Bauers? The only guys they drafted who made it to the bigs as outfielders lately were drafted as outfielders - Allen and Zimmer.

In the last 18 months they've traded for six outfielders, all of whom will see major league at-bats this season. They wouldn't have done that if the shortstop-to-outfielder pipeline was working.

 

[sportscoach]

You forgot Will Benson, our 1st round pick in 2016 (14th overall). He has a career .212 average in the low minors. He hit .189 last year in high A. He turns 22 tomorrow.

As for Greg Allen, I'll be surprised if he's on the major league roster this year much less being the fourth outfielder. They traded for DeShields to take the late inning pinch runner/defensive replacement spot. Why would they ask for DeShields in the Clase deal if they like Allen?

I agree they may be counting on some of the HS shortstops to switch to the outfield at some point, but with the exception of Chisenhall, when has that happened? If that were happening why did they trade for Reyes, Mercado, Luplow, DeShields, Johnson and Bauers? The only guys they drafted who made it to the bigs as outfielders lately were drafted as outfielders - Allen and Zimmer.

In the last 18 months they've traded for six outfielders, all of whom will see major league at-bats this season. They wouldn't have done that if the shortstop-to-outfielder pipeline was working.

Look at the age of those players outside of DeShields that we traded for? When we acquired them all 24 or younger at AAA/limited major league experience. That was the FO doing their jobs and filling in areas they were weak in with prospects/young players who they have long term control of. Allen and DeShields also can platoon eith each other as well since their history says they are platoon/speed guys/defensive replacements. I think the FO wanted to bring in another veteran who knows baseball to be in and around in this clubhouse.

Benson is a freak of an athlete for his size, he just retooled his swing and started to get more success. This season was the year that he needed to prove himself.

I agree maybe we should have drafted more OF prospects but this organization focuses on young athletic position players and lots and lots of pitching. You dont stay a contender for as long as the Indians have without drafting something well and making smart trades and signings.

From what other peeps had said they didn't like a lot of the college bats in this draft so it is quite possible the FO agreed with them and went with their MO of drafting the best athletes position wise. Everyone graded their draft highly, so we just gotta trust the FO right now.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

More review of the Tribe 2020 draft class...

Indians Draft Analysis • Prospects Worldwide

Top 20 Prospects Rankings, MLB Draft, Dynasty Baseball, Player Breakdowns, Scouting Reports, Data Analysis, Podcasts, Mock Drafts, Player Ranks, and more! Backed by Analytics & Scouting Mentality

prospectsworldwide.com

Wow, talk about an in-depth analysis. This guy really loves Burns and Allen (his favorite pick in the entire draft). Thanks for the link.

He had some excellent observations about how successful the Indians have been at teaching new pitches to their draft picks that have made all the difference.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Look at the age of those players outside of DeShields that we traded for? When we acquired them all 24 or younger at AAA/limited major league experience. That was the FO doing their jobs and filling in areas they were weak in with prospects/young players who they have long term control of. Allen and DeShields also can platoon eith each other as well since their history says they are platoon/speed guys/defensive replacements. I think the FO wanted to bring in another veteran who knows baseball to be in and around in this clubhouse.

Benson is a freak of an athlete for his size, he just retooled his swing and started to get more success. This season was the year that he needed to prove himself.

I agree maybe we should have drafted more OF prospects but this organization focuses on young athletic position players and lots and lots of pitching. You dont stay a contender for as long as the Indians have without drafting something well and making smart trades and signings.

From what other peeps had said they didn't like a lot of the college bats in this draft so it is quite possible the FO agreed with them and went with their MO of drafting the best athletes position wise. Everyone graded their draft highly, so we just gotta trust the FO right now.

Just for the record, I'm not criticizing the Indians for not drafting more outfielders. They shouldn't draft them if they're not good at it. You can always trade for them, which is what they've done. Or sign veterans like Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson, Carlos Gonzalez, or do a minor trade for a Leonys Martin.

I'm just saying that because they haven't been able to hit on any except first round picks Naquin and Zimmer (and both of them are questionable due to recurring injuries) they've had to give up assets and go outside the organization for major league players. And they haven't had an infielder convert to the outfield other than Chisenhall, and they waited too long to move him.

 

[Derek]

You forgot Will Benson, our 1st round pick in 2016 (14th overall). He has a career .212 average in the low minors. He hit .189 last year in high A. He turns 22 tomorrow.

As for Greg Allen, I'll be surprised if he's on the major league roster this year much less being the fourth outfielder. They traded for DeShields to take the late inning pinch runner/defensive replacement spot. Why would they ask for DeShields in the Clase deal if they like Allen?

I agree they may be counting on some of the HS shortstops to switch to the outfield at some point, but with the exception of Chisenhall, when has that happened? If that were happening why did they trade for Reyes, Mercado, Luplow, DeShields, Johnson and Bauers? The only guys they drafted who made it to the bigs as outfielders lately were drafted as outfielders - Allen and Zimmer.

In the last 18 months they've traded for six outfielders, all of whom will see major league at-bats this season. They wouldn't have done that if the shortstop-to-outfielder pipeline was working.

I don't know what to tell you. It seems to me that you have unrealistic expectations for draft picks. I would encourage you to look at organizations across the league and examine where their starting players come from, and how long it took those guys to reach the majors.

You slight Benson because he's about to turn 22 and has "only" reached A+ and Clint Frazier for "only" having played 122 career games.

From the 2016 draft, there were 20 HS players taken in the 1st round. They have combined to play 34 career games (all of them coming last year from Carter Kieboom and Gavin Lux). The number one overall pick in the draft, Mickey Moniak, played last year at AA, but has just a .692 career OPS in the minors, which is lower than Benson's .755. Taylor Trammell and Dylan Carlson are two of the top prospects in baseball from this draft and both played their seasons at AA last year (Carlson got 18 games in at AAA) toward the end of the year. Despite reworking his swing and having him repeat Lake County, Benson is only a level behind some highly regarded prep bats from his class.

From Frazier's draft, Austin Meadows is the most tenured and successful prep player. He has appeared in just 197 games to date, only 75 more than Frazier.

There is no "shortstop-to-outfielder" pipeline that the Indians are experimenting with. This is simply how baseball works. Guys change positions. Hell, Mercado was a SS up until quite recently! Jose Ramirez even showed himself to be a quality OF back in 2016 despite never having played there previously. Not that it's easy to play anywhere, but teams don't draft corner outfielders. For the most part, they draft CF, SS, C and then they find out if they can stick in those positions before exploring alternatives.

An extraordinary majority of draftees never reach the majors, and out of the ones who do, most are not with the original team that drafted them. Even with 1st rounders, there's probably just about 50/50 chance of seeing those guys become regular major leaguers. Making trades is not an admission of anything, it's simply what happens when teams are trying to improve their organizations.

Let's also not forget the International signings which yielded our current top outfield prospect, George Valera.

 

[Derek]

Despite their injuries,

Naquin is 17th in WAR among first-rounders in 2012 (he was drafted 15th)
Zimmer is 11th in WAR among first-rounders in 2014 (he was drafted 21st)

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

Frazier was the 5th overall pick in 2013 and at age 25 he has a career WAR of 0.1. He still might turn out to be a solid regular and probably will based on last year's numbers (.806 OPS). But wouldn't you expect more from that spot in the draft?

Naquin was a pretty good pick but he was drafted in 2012.

Greg Allen is 27 and has a career OPS+ of 71. Last year was 66. That was a good 6th round pick?

Kipnis was a great pick - in 2009! If you have to go back to 2009-2013 to find successful picks it kind of supports my argument. I wonder why we don't take more college outfielders like him and Naquin. The key was his ability to switch to second base. As a left fielder where hitting is more critical his career 102 OPS+ and .750 OPS might not have played that well. He would have been a marginal starter at best.

I suppose Chisenhall counts even though he was drafted (in 2008) with the idea that he would probably play third base. It took them far too long to move him to right field where he thrived briefly. Too bad they didn't put him out there a couple of years earlier. His hitting improved dramatically once the stress of trying to be a third baseman was removed (OPS increased 134 points). I wonder if that experience will influence the Indians to move Nolan Jones to 1B or the outfield if his glove is marginal and he struggles at the plate.

If you rank the Indians outfielders right now it would be something like Reyes, Mercado, Naquin, Luplow, Santana, DeShields, Bauers, Johnson, and Allen. All but Naquin and Allen were acquired from other orgs, which is basically what my statement is based on, along with the failure of any outfielder drafted since 2013 to emerge as a contributor.

Frazier hasn't been in the majors only because he is with the Yankees. Had we not traded him, he would of been handed an OF spot like 2 years ago.

MLB draft is a major roll of the dice, which is why it has so many rounds. The vast majority never even make it to the majors. You also have people taken in the 13th round, 333rd over all, that become first ballot Hall of Famers named Jim Thome.

Since 2013 is a date you mention, Astros took Mark Apple first over all. Last season was 2017, never made the majors. Its a total crap shoot.

 

[Benway]

This guy really loves Burns and Allen

@Lee

 

[sportscoach]

Just for the record, I'm not criticizing the Indians for not drafting more outfielders. They shouldn't draft them if they're not good at it. You can always trade for them, which is what they've done. Or sign veterans like Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson, Carlos Gonzalez, or do a minor trade for a Leonys Martin.

I'm just saying that because they haven't been able to hit on any except first round picks Naquin and Zimmer (and both of them are questionable due to recurring injuries) they've had to give up assets and go outside the organization for major league players. And they haven't had an infielder convert to the outfield other than Chisenhall, and they waited too long to move him.

Indians also don't seem to always go after the best players, but ones they know they can sign. I feel like a lot of their first picks in the draft, they purposely select so they can sign to get under slot value and go like BPA with everyone else and often times go over on some of the later guys. In 16, Benson and Jones nearly signed for the same amount of money, which in Jones case was double the allocated slot amount if I remember correctly. So they have a strategy and are going to stick with it while they are winning

 

[LL3]

Wait, is it dessert or is it gravy? Because i am not having gravy for dessert.

I had originally typed gravy...found dessert more appealing!

 

[LL3]

Frazier was the 5th overall pick in 2013 and at age 25 he has a career WAR of 0.1. He still might turn out to be a solid regular and probably will based on last year's numbers (.806 OPS). But wouldn't you expect more from that spot in the draft?

Naquin was a pretty good pick but he was drafted in 2012.

Greg Allen is 27 and has a career OPS+ of 71. Last year was 66. That was a good 6th round pick?

Kipnis was a great pick - in 2009! If you have to go back to 2009-2013 to find successful picks it kind of supports my argument. I wonder why we don't take more college outfielders like him and Naquin. The key was his ability to switch to second base. As a left fielder where hitting is more critical his career 102 OPS+ and .750 OPS might not have played that well. He would have been a marginal starter at best.

I suppose Chisenhall counts even though he was drafted (in 2008) with the idea that he would probably play third base. It took them far too long to move him to right field where he thrived briefly. Too bad they didn't put him out there a couple of years earlier. His hitting improved dramatically once the stress of trying to be a third baseman was removed (OPS increased 134 points). I wonder if that experience will influence the Indians to move Nolan Jones to 1B or the outfield if his glove is marginal and he struggles at the plate.

If you rank the Indians outfielders right now it would be something like Reyes, Mercado, Naquin, Luplow, Santana, DeShields, Bauers, Johnson, and Allen. All but Naquin and Allen were acquired from other orgs, which is basically what my statement is based on, along with the failure of any outfielder drafted since 2013 to emerge as a contributor.

Getting Major Leaguers through the draft is hard. Do not short sell Greg Allen ( a player I have never really loved, but...) in the 6th round. He is actuallysomewhat useful, and in that valuable. So many others never sniff the majors.

 

[Lee]

@Lee

Thanks, I did catch that, mainly just reading the Indians section right now, it is so improved with the group you are a part of that we inherited, very appreciative for you guys.....I am not a huge MLB draft guy, Major league is the only level of baseball I follow although I live near ASU. I come here to pick your guys brains....I know baseball decently well, but not nearly as well as football or basketball....basically I know more than the casual fan, but not nearly as much as the guys like you.

 

[LL3]

So in all honesty we havent done great job drafting OF, but we actually don't focus on drafting OFs. Mercado wasn't an OF, until a season before we got him so its not like INF cannot become OFs.

I mean if you look how many we have drafted, and with the % that actually make the pros, we havent done all that bad. Personally i would like to see us draft more college bats and I have stated that, but i gotta trust an FO who has been putting together playoff teams for many years with spending very limited money within free agency.

Agree -- Even if we have not necessarily stacked up outfielders in our drafts, we have managed to swap "surplus" in other spots to get guys like Mercado and Luplow.