2020 NBA Draft

[MikeOC33]

That is one weird-ass shooting form. It almost looks like a two-handed set shot with a very low release.

He's got his elbow out like Reggie Miller did (did I ever mention that I'd like to punch Reggie Miller in the face? Well, I would.)

Elbow out is fine, Reggie Miller was a freakin' sniper, but unlike Reggie, LaMelo does have a low release and it seems he brings the ball up to his shooting position further away from his body than optimal. Maybe this will allow the defender to swipe at the ball easier when closely guarded?

Speaking of, his shot does not look like it will hold up well when he is closely guarded. He's obviously got the handles to create space, but if the defender is up tight, I don't think his natural form will hold up. Shooting drills in a gym, yeah, no problem. 2 seconds left on the shot clock and a defender is swiping at you... we shall see.

The other thing that looks odd is the actual release. It's like a flick release. There is no holding the pose after release with your hand/wrist bent like a "?", but it doesn't matter if he can make shots, and he has shown that he can. He will be watched closely for sure, but for many reasons, put me in the "pass on him" group.

 

[CavsFan07]

I could probably get on board with the LaMelo pick.. I think he's a legit 6'8" with extremely long arms.. handles the ball well, shoots it OK (but needs work here)... When he adds strength will have the versatility to guard multiple positions.. I think I'd be ok with it.

but I don't see him being there at 5.. Edwards/Wiseman/Ball are the top 3 picks in some order IMO. I'd actually think someone trades up to get Ball if someone above us isn't sold on him.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

He's got his elbow out like Reggie Miller did (did I ever mention that I'd like to punch Reggie Miller in the face? Well, I would.)

Elbow out is fine, Reggie Miller was a freakin' sniper, but unlike Reggie, LaMelo does have a low release and it seems he brings the ball up to his shooting position further away from his body than optimal. Maybe this will allow the defender to swipe at the ball easier when closely guarded?

Speaking of, his shot does not look like it will hold up well when he is closely guarded. He's obviously got the handles to create space, but if the defender is up tight, I don't think his natural form will hold up. Shooting drills in a gym, yeah, no problem. 2 seconds left on the shot clock and a defender is swiping at you... we shall see.

The other thing that looks odd is the actual release. It's like a flick release. There is no holding the pose after release with your hand/wrist bent like a "?", but it doesn't matter if he can make shots, and he has shown that he can. He will be watched closely for sure, but for many reasons, put me in the "pass on him" group.

Here's the thing for me -- Lamelo clearly has spent his entire life to this point shooting that way. It's how he is most comfortable, it's where his muscle memory is, etc.. And even with shooting in the form that is most comfortable for him, he still shot 25% from three.

But as you say, that's a shot that isn't going to succeed in the NBA, and will need to be "fixed". So he's going to have to learn a new motion, create new muscle memory...and we have no idea if he can really do that, or what his 3 Pt.% will look like during that likely years-long process. And that's assuming that he really does manage to rework it and become fully comfortable with the new shot. Is he even going to be willing to do that at all?

I think the most reasonable assumption about him is that he has to be considered a below-average 3 point shooter in the NBA, and that the odds of him becoming even average among guards are no better than they'd be for any other guys who shot 25% in college, and whose shot need to be reworked completely. Is it possible? Sure. I just don't see it as the most likely outcome.

I think a lot of folks are tantalized by the player he'd be if he was a good outside shooter (and better defender), and so are imagining into existence significant improvements that history tells us are unlikely to happen.

 

[daddywags]

I may be crazy but I think Ball is an extremely valuable player even if he doesn't ever shoot threes at an average guard clip. But I think he's going 1, 2 or 3.

 

[CavsFan07]

I also want to go on record to make another comment about a player I like that gets hated on a lot...

Vernon Carey.. NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM do I want him at #5.... but if we take a wing with the 5th pick, I'd love to trade back up to the middle of the 1st and take a flyer on Carey.

Foot speed is the issue, and probably undersized for a center. But most of his high school career was rated the #1 prospect in his class.. He just averaged 18 ppg, 9 rbg, and 1.6 bpg in the ACC for Duke. Only shot 21 threes but made 8 of them (38%).... so he has some potential to knock down the outside shot long term... Big body who should be able to bang down low with the bruisers in the league.

Again, I don't want him at 5.... but I think he's getting slept on.. he's going to fall to one of the late lottery teams and be a very solid player for a very long time.

 

[Nathan S]

Just for context @The Human Q-Tip , here's how I'd rate some players in this draft on my 10-point scale (for perimeter offense, i.e. 3-point shooting):

10: Markus Howard
9: Aaron Nesmith
8: Malachi Flynn
7. Tyrese Haliburton
6. LaMelo Ball
5. Josh Green
4. Isaac Okoro
3. Onyeka Okongwu
2. Filip Petrusev
1. Austin Wiley
0. Udoka Azubuike

Qualitatively, 9/10 = elite off-dribble/step-back/motion shooting, 7/8 = very accurate set shot, good shooting off screens/movement, decent off-dribble shooting, 5/6 = solid set shot with some limited movement/off-dribble shooting, 3/4 = barely-respectable set shot, little ability to shoot off movement, 1/2 = some midrange game, can make a rare 3 when left wide open, 0 = no shooting ability whatsoever

 

[MirORich]

Only 52 more days of debate about who might be available to us at 5 after not having played a full year in college(most of them), no in person workouts, and no games in over 6 months.

In normal years the draft happens within 3-7 days after the last game of the Finals. We’re not even close to being close yet.

 

[DeeThree]

He's got his elbow out like Reggie Miller did (did I ever mention that I'd like to punch Reggie Miller in the face? Well, I would.)

Elbow out is fine, Reggie Miller was a freakin' sniper, but unlike Reggie, LaMelo does have a low release and it seems he brings the ball up to his shooting position further away from his body than optimal. Maybe this will allow the defender to swipe at the ball easier when closely guarded?

Speaking of, his shot does not look like it will hold up well when he is closely guarded. He's obviously got the handles to create space, but if the defender is up tight, I don't think his natural form will hold up. Shooting drills in a gym, yeah, no problem. 2 seconds left on the shot clock and a defender is swiping at you... we shall see.

The other thing that looks odd is the actual release. It's like a flick release. There is no holding the pose after release with your hand/wrist bent like a "?", but it doesn't matter if he can make shots, and he has shown that he can. He will be watched closely for sure, but for many reasons, put me in the "pass on him" group.

Pass on group? Melo FTW.

 

[Muffinalt]

My draft rater is pretty neutral on him defensively, giving him a -0.3 defensive rating. For context, that's roughly halfway in between Okoro/Vassell and Williams/Bane among wings. Where he'll probably get knocked the most in my report, when I get to him, will be interior offense. I gave Haliburton a 2/10, and he'll probably get a similar rating there as his lack of strength/athleticism limits his versatility offensively. I see him as a better, more well-rounded version of Nesmith, but I'm not as high on him as the consensus, which seems to be mid first-late lottery right now.

Yeah that seems pretty fair. Just too bad he lacks the athleticism and lower body strength otherwise his package would be top of the draft material.

So many wings here who are good in multiple areas but have one or two super huge weakness that makes you stop. Strange draft.

 

[Nathan S]

I also want to go on record to make another comment about a player I like that gets hated on a lot...

Vernon Carey.. NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM do I want him at #5.... but if we take a wing with the 5th pick, I'd love to trade back up to the middle of the 1st and take a flyer on Carey.

Foot speed is the issue, and probably undersized for a center. But most of his high school career was rated the #1 prospect in his class.. He just averaged 18 ppg, 9 rbg, and 1.6 bpg in the ACC for Duke. Only shot 21 threes but made 8 of them (38%).... so he has some potential to knock down the outside shot long term... Big body who should be able to bang down low with the bruisers in the league.

Again, I don't want him at 5.... but I think he's getting slept on.. he's going to fall to one of the late lottery teams and be a very solid player for a very long time.

Totally agree...I have him in the teens on my board, and am kind of shocked to see that I'm actually above the consensus with that. As far as I'm aware, Jared Sullinger is the only All-American freshman in modern history who wasn't drafted in the lottery, and he obviously slid due to injury red flags. But somehow it's completely non-controversial to say that Carey isn't good enough to draft in the lottery...in a weak draft, no less!

 

[WorldFreeB]

nm

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

nm

But I'm curious

 

[WorldFreeB]

From bleacher report and article by Jonathan Wasserman ,,,i had trouble posting the link,,,but here is an excerpt,,its a good article about the draft:

Wiseman started the season as a No. 1 overall candidate, while Okongwu was mostly off NBA rankings as a 6'9", non-shooting center. But Bleacher Report has talked with multiple scouts who've moved Okongwu over Wiseman.

We made the move in November. But what matters most are the teams picking No. 2-10.

At this stage, Wiseman's case is mostly built around measurements, considering he played just three games at Memphis and did most of his damage as a finisher and shot-blocker. But Okongwu averaged 16.2 points and 2.7 blocks for the season, wowing with athletic plays, 94th-percentile post scoring, touch (15-of-35 half-court jumpers, 72.0 percent free-throws) and defensive activity/versatility.

As enticing as 7'1" size and 7'6" length sound, being big doesn't generate the same love and reaction as it once did.

We reported earlier there is a belief that Wiseman could fall in the No. 5-9 range.

 

[Los216]

From bleacher report and article by Jonathan Wasserman ,,,i had trouble posting the link,,,but here is an excerpt,,its a good article about the draft:

Wiseman started the season as a No. 1 overall candidate, while Okongwu was mostly off NBA rankings as a 6'9", non-shooting center. But Bleacher Report has talked with multiple scouts who've moved Okongwu over Wiseman.

We made the move in November. But what matters most are the teams picking No. 2-10.

At this stage, Wiseman's case is mostly built around measurements, considering he played just three games at Memphis and did most of his damage as a finisher and shot-blocker. But Okongwu averaged 16.2 points and 2.7 blocks for the season, wowing with athletic plays, 94th-percentile post scoring, touch (15-of-35 half-court jumpers, 72.0 percent free-throws) and defensive activity/versatility.

As enticing as 7'1" size and 7'6" length sound, being big doesn't generate the same love and reaction as it once did.

We reported earlier there is a belief that Wiseman could fall in the No. 5-9 range.

Let Wiseman fall right into our laps. Altman would run that card up to Silver.

 

[Nathan S]

LaMelo Ball

Spoiler

Perimeter offense: 6/10

Clearly there are some mixed signals here. Ball was an incredibly high volume 3-point shooter, and many of his shots had a high degree of difficulty. On the other hand, his form is inconsistent (to put it nicely), and he converted at an abysmal 25%. Given his respectable free throw percentage, hovering just above 70%, and his youth, I tend to think he'll develop into a viable 3-point threat at the NBA level, though probably not a high-volume one. A wide range of outcomes is possible here.

Interior offense: 6/10

Ball isn't unusually explosive or strong, but he fared reasonably well here considering the level of competition and the extremely high level of defensive attention he attracted. He's a very good ballhandler, his length helps him finish over smaller guards, and he's good at using the threat of his passing to keep bigs off balance. Also a surprisingly good offensive rebounder.

Team offense: 10/10

Not much to say here that hasn't already been said. One of the best passers at age 18 the game has ever seen, sky-high potential.

Perimeter defense: 6/10

Inconsistent, but tantalizing flashes on the perimeter. Excellent length and anticipation resulted in a high steal rate, and surprisingly quick feet laterally when motivated. Unfortunately, a lot of these positives were offset by a lack of effort and poor fundamentals. Again a wide range of possible outcomes here, depending a lot on how coachable he is.

Interior defense: 5/10

Skinny frame and inconsistent effort hurt him, but he sure uses his length well. Among the league leaders in defensive rebounds thanks to good hands and uncanny anticipation. Potential to hold his own against bigs depends a lot on how his body develops.

Team defense: 6/10

Really tough to assess here as well. IQ and length give him the potential to fit nicely in a modern, switch-happy defense, but this will depend on his willingness to stay engaged, especially when he's far from the action. Lack of discipline is real, but not unusual compared to typical 18-year-old prospects. This weakness stood out more playing among seasoned pros than it would have in the college game, in my opinion.

Overall: 39/60

Tyrese Haliburton

Spoiler

Perimeter offense: 7/10

Deadly accurate off the catch with deep range, but still learning to shoot off the dribble and over contests. He's often talked about as a high floor/low ceiling prospect, and in this area at least that appears to be completely true.

Interior offense: 2/10

Nice touch with some ability to finish above the rim, but really appears to lack confidence in this part of his game, and shies away from contact. May always be limited here due to his skinny frame.

Team offense: 9/10

A good and willing passer, and an exceptional leader on the court. Vocal, and radiates his infectious love for the game. Not quite a savant, but can make all the passes you'd expect to see from an NBA point guard, and even a few more thanks to his above-average height and length.

Perimeter defense: 8/10

Length, quickness, and high energy level make him great in a lot of 1-on-1 situations. Needs to add some muscle and keep working on his fundamentals, as savvy opponents will use his jumpy/aggressive nature against him, but overall really high potential in this area.

Interior defense: 4/10

Skinny frame really hurts him, but he's an earnest competitor even when outmatched, and gets more than a few blocks thanks to his length and timing.

Team defense: 8/10

As on offense, he's a very vocal and active teammate on the defensive end. Fantastic anticipation and instincts. Lack of strength again dampens his potential a bit, but does his best to make up for it with effort, and not afraid to mix it up with bigger, stronger players.

Overall: 38/60

Onyeka Okongwu

Spoiler

Perimeter offense: 3/10

Not a 3-point shooter yet, even from the college line, but decent mechanics and solid free throw percentage give some hope.

Interior offense: 8/10

Strong, explosive finisher who can sky for lobs and gobble up offensive rebounds. Somewhat raw ballhandling/footwork limit his ability to create his own offense at the moment, but encouraging flashes suggest that he's likely to improve with experience.

Team offense: 3/10

Team-first attitude is there, but not a particularly quick decision maker with the ball, and not a super active screener either from what I've seen. NBA defenders likely to jump his passes and attack his dribble.

Perimeter defense: 7/10

Rare quickness for a player his size, with length and athleticism to contest when beat or slightly out of position. Appears a bit uncomfortable at times, giving too much space, prematurely biting on a pump fake, or generally not keeping his body well-balanced and under control. Needs to trust himself and his fundamentals more in these situations.

Interior defense: 9/10

Rock-solid frame should allow him to hold position against anyone, and great vertical athleticism makes him a formidable shot blocker. Generally above-average fundamentals for a player his age. Height may put him at a slight disadvantage in some matchups, which is the only real knock on him.

Team defense: 5/10

Can be very disruptive due to length and athleticism, but can be a bit slow on rotations, and doesn't really have the tactician/communicator skills you'd like to see in a defensive anchor. In the NBA, his footspeed may not be enough to make up for split-second lapses.

Overall: 35/60

Killian Hayes

Spoiler

Perimeter offense: 6/10

Good enough to keep the defense honest, but volume and accuracy both leave something to be desired. Reasonably good form and high free throw percentage suggest potential for steady improvement, but probably won't develop the deep off-dribble range you hope to see in a lottery guard prospect.

Interior offense: 4/10

Good enough handle to get downhill and has a nice frame to take contact, but reliance on his left hand and average vertical pop make him a less-than-dynamic finisher. Will have to get much craftier to succeed in the NBA.

Team offense: 9/10

Creative and ambitious passer, though sometimes to a fault as the requisite accuracy isn't always there. Seeing the success of Morant and Young after posting high turnover rates in college, I tend to think that the value of being creative and unpredictable outweighs the cost of turnovers, and the very solid offensive efficiency of Hayes's team supports this theory as well, so I think a glass-half-full perspective is reasonable here.

Perimeter defense: 6/10

Solid combination of length, strength, and lateral quickness makes him fairly versatile on the perimeter, and active hands generate a good number of steals. Suffers some from inconsistent effort and fundamentals, and probably not quite quick enough to handle smaller, speedier guards.

Interior defense: 3/10

Decent length and lower-body strength give him more potential than most guards to hold his own, but he's been a pretty underwhelming rebounder and shot blocker in his career so far.

Team defense: 5/10

Generally a high-IQ defender who rotates well and makes good decisions in the P&R, though his lack of speed chasing smaller guards is occasionally an issue. Should be a functional though unspectacular team defender.

Overall: 33/60

Anthony Edwards

Spoiler

Perimeter offense: 7/10

Extraordinarily high-volume shooter who's more than a bit overconfident in his ability, often launching a difficult three when he would be better off attacking the rim. Good form, solid free throw percentage, and youth are good reasons to bank on him in this area assuming he can clean up his shot selection.

Interior offense: 7/10

Very good attacking the rim, but not as unstoppable as expected. Great frame and athleticism give him potential, but he still settles for jumpers a lot, perhaps because he doesn't quite trust his handle in traffic, a chink in his armor that NBA defenses will certainly try to exploit.

Team offense: 4/10

A reasonably competent passer, but certainly has a selfish streak, and can get tunnel vision inside the arc. NBA defenses may bait him into going 1-on-1 when he should move the ball.

Perimeter defense: 7/10

Serious upside in this area thanks to excellent all-around athleticism. Fundamentals not particularly good, but makes a lot of positive plays with high energy level and quick reflexes.

Interior defense: 4/10

Potential to hold his own thanks to strong frame and athleticism, but as on offense he was a bit less active in the paint than might be expected for a player with his physical gifts. Doesn't quite bring the same energy he brings on the perimeter.

Team defense: 4/10

A relatively careless defender off the ball. At best looks for opportunities to jump a passing lane, and has the ability to make opportunistic steals/blocks thanks to his athleticism, but loses track of his man too much, or makes gambles that leave teammates scrambling. Needs to seriously improve effort level and fundamentals to be a net-positive.

Overall: 33/60

James Wiseman

Spoiler

Perimeter offense: 3/10

Decent looking form gives some hope, but pretty mechanical and easily flustered by any defensive pressure.

Interior offense: 10/10

Size and athleticism make him extremely dangerous in the paint. Fights for position, and can finish effectively with either hand. Very active on the offensive glass.

Team offense: 2/10

Sets some good screens, both otherwise is a total black hole scorer. Awareness basically limited to himself, the basket, and any defenders in between.

Perimeter defense: 4/10

Has the size and athleticism to make up for relatively slow feet, but often plays way off of guys and does a poor job getting in a stance. Really needs to work here or NBA teams will hunt him on switches.

Interior defense: 10/10

Great shot blocker and monster rebounder thanks to physical tools and very good fundamentals. Slow-ish feet again show up from time to time, but he's never out of the picture thanks to his long wingspan and vertical athleticism.

Team defense: 3/10

Often slow on rotations, and basically a non-factor away from the rim in despite formidable physical tools. May struggle to adapt to the speed of the NBA game.

Overall: 32/60

Aleksej Pokusevski

Spoiler

Perimeter offense: 7/10

Really smooth and confident shooter though the consistency isn't quite there yet; plays like a big wing/SG with the ability to shoot off the dribble or off screens. Size and mobility give him a high ceiling in this area if he can tighten up his mechanics.

Interior offense: 3/10

Very lackluster finisher as frail frame negates solid length and athleticism. Far more comfortable on the perimeter offensively.

Team offense: 6/10

Heady, team-first player with real ability to run the P&R and make advanced reads. Size lets him see over the defense and make passes that most perimeter players can't. These skills will be put to the test against the much higher level of competition in the NBA.

Perimeter defense: 6/10

Comfortable on the perimeter, good hands/reflexes bother ballhandlers and combination of length and agility help him contain in isolation. In danger of getting bullied by more physical guards, and can struggle to navigate picks/screens with his gangly frame.

Interior defense: 4/10

Really good instincts and timing as a shot blocker and rebounder, but his skinny frame seriously limits him in these areas. Most bigs will simply bulldoze him and outmuscle him for rebounds.

Team defense: 6/10

Big-time playmaker thanks to his physical tools, IQ, and uncanny reflexes. Needs to be more attentive to rotations and fundamentals in order to make the most of his talents, but has the potential to be extremely disruptive in the right system.

Overall: 32/60