That, combined with his passing, makes him really interesting to me. He hasn't had many opportunities to create this year given the excellent work of senior guards McCormick and Doughty, but in EYBL play he averaged a healthy 4 assists and 2 turnovers per game. Something to keep an eye on as the season goes on.
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2020 NBA Draft
- Thread starter blommen
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That, combined with his passing, makes him really interesting to me. He hasn't had many opportunities to create this year given the excellent work of senior guards McCormick and Doughty, but in EYBL play he averaged a healthy 4 assists and 2 turnovers per game. Something to keep an eye on as the season goes on.
Cavatt
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Didn't know about that.
What are your thoughts on shooting these days? It seems like very few players just can't do it. Demar, MKG. I can't think of any other guys who just flat out never learn to shoot that otherwise have decent touch.
I guess it is strange, but I just assume everyone is going to learn these days or totally wash out.
It's a big weakness for Okoro...as @I'mWithDan pointed out, there are several players in this draft with that one nagging weakness that drags down their ceiling, without which they'd be the clear #1 pick.
More generally, my biggest thought on shooting is that 3-point volume is way more telling than 3-point percentage. Look at volume, and basically ignore percentage unless it's really extreme in either direction. That means (filtering minor conference guys) the top shooting prospects this year are:
Aaron Nesmith (unfortunately suffered a season-ending foot injury)
Markus Howard (unfortunately is like 5'10")
Isaiah Joe (Big sleeper??)
Buddy Boeheim (unfortunately very white)
John Petty (unfortunately no relation to Tom Petty)
I'mWithDan
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Just looking through some stuff last night.......Is there any good reason why Jordan Nwora would just be considered a late first round pick?
Seems like a high IQ, scoring wing should be more valued than he is.....especially when he has been a solid defender / rebounder as well.
He's seen a pretty big upswing in per 100 volume and increased his shooting percentages across the board.
Obviously need to see how he sustains through conference play but around the halfway point, he has some of the best scoring analytics of any 1st round wing in the possession era. Just efficient scoring across the board with really nice 3 point volume.
I know his knock is athleticism but he just does a lot of things really well on offense.....be it shooting on the move, attacking, spotting up.....he's just a really complete scorer.
I get there are some playmaking concerns.....just with how he can create for others but just looking at his shooting splits and how effective his is across the shooting and scoring spectrum, he seems like someone who should rise in a relatively weak draft on the wing.
Seems like a high IQ, scoring wing should be more valued than he is.....especially when he has been a solid defender / rebounder as well.
He's seen a pretty big upswing in per 100 volume and increased his shooting percentages across the board.
Obviously need to see how he sustains through conference play but around the halfway point, he has some of the best scoring analytics of any 1st round wing in the possession era. Just efficient scoring across the board with really nice 3 point volume.
I know his knock is athleticism but he just does a lot of things really well on offense.....be it shooting on the move, attacking, spotting up.....he's just a really complete scorer.
I get there are some playmaking concerns.....just with how he can create for others but just looking at his shooting splits and how effective his is across the shooting and scoring spectrum, he seems like someone who should rise in a relatively weak draft on the wing.
Seems like there's room for debate on his defensive potential. stl+blk rate is pretty anemic, and qualitatively, he doesn't have ideal size/athleticism for the 3 or the 4. He's clearly a very good offensive player, but not good enough that I can look past the defensive questionmarks.
I'mWithDan
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STL+BLK on a per 100 basis is average, from what I see (for wings)......but he is kind of right on that borderline of good defensive potential, from a DBPM, DWS and DRTG perspective. Considering how much water he carries on offense, it's actually very uncommon that a wing has even average defensive metrics at the college level.
It's a little murkier than you would like......and I'd really have to dig in on lineup combination data, as I have no clue how good any of his teammates are but the markers are there for him to be an undervalued player......certainly based on past data for wing players. Guys who can truly play the SF position almost never creep in to plus territory in my stuff at the college level.....and the handful of guys that do have a really high rate of success at the NBA level.
I'm still kind of on the fence with him.....but he does stand out analytically. Of the 10 wings in his rank baseline or above (only 15% in the database), 8 were at worst, plus VORP players at the NBA level. He just sits (currently) in this sweet spot that few wings get in to (1.1+ in overall impact).....and especially scoring wings tend to translate those skills when their impact is this positive at the college level.
Your guess is probably better than mine about how his defense will translate, just saying that it'd be a point of major scrutiny for me if I was thinking about spending a first rounder on him. People took for granted that Hachimura would be at least average on defense in spite of his middling college stats, but he's been an absolute disaster on that end. On the other hand, some players who were nothing special defensively in college ended up being perfectly solid system defenders in the NBA. Really tough to tell with guys who aren't outstanding but don't have any serious defensive red flags either.
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Taking Garland and Sexton these past 2 drafts really means it would not be wise to totally ignore defense unless we see a transcendent offensive player at our spot.
I'mWithDan
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I think we have discussed in the past how difficult it is to project......but having a mix of positive defensive indicators just makes it a lot more likely.
Hachimura was tougher because I personally was really unsure where NBA teams would play him......Nwora seems more like a true wing and his defensive metrics are against significantly better competition. That, usually, is a positive sign.
The other thing with Hachimura that was concerning is that he was better / more impactful initially on defense......but he never really improved. Nwora has seen a far more interesting progression on defense, where initially he was just kind of a zero there but has slowly worked his way in to being a near potential plus guy on that end from an NBA perspective (roughly 4 DPBM at the college level) while being a high volume, high usage scorer. I think it was Hoy that had some interesting DBPM research on thresholds. I’d have to see if I could find it.
Again, I don't think he's even a top 10 pick.....but I do think he's incredibly undervalued in mocks, from what I have seen. He just currently lands above a baseline where wings tend to be better than average players.......and if you can get a better than average player in the 20’s, that seems like an evaluation mistake is being made by teams in front of you. Especially when it is a high IQ, high character player. Will be curious to see where he ends up on big boards at years end.
Not sure what position/role he plays at the next level, but Aamir Simms is a very fun player to watch.
EDIT: Carey's currently averaging twice as many turnovers as assists, but I think we may see that improve significantly over the second half of the season. Crisp, smart passes so far tonight.
EDIT: Carey's currently averaging twice as many turnovers as assists, but I think we may see that improve significantly over the second half of the season. Crisp, smart passes so far tonight.
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cabs
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Sexton should have no impact on who we choose imo
Ball's season is over. His averages of 17.0 points, 7.4 boards, 6.8 assists, 1.7 steals, and 2.5 turnovers per game are very nice. His shooting splits of .38/.25/.70, less nice. A difficult evaluation.
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Doesn't matter we need more guys with defensive upside, size/length
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Low sample, but watching the Clemson highlights vs Duke, Carey was the victim in quite a few of the Clemson highlights. Looked slow and confused.. So he has moved down a little in my book..
Really not seeing break away players this year..
Really not seeing break away players this year..