2020 NBA Draft

[Cavatt]

Can someone explain the fascination with Josh Green?
Isaac Okoro to me is the much better prospect.

Just watched Okoro a little. You are totally right on his finishing. His center of gravity is immovable. He has that really solid balance that guys can't shake him off of. I saw one move, where he was prepared to take contact at the rim, and the guy just moved out of the way, and he just adjusted perfectly and its smoothly went in. He has that rare touch around the basket and elevates so there isn't much you can do.

FT% is bad. 3pt % is bad, but yeah he looks smart and he has an innate feel for the game. He would be a great guy to add to our core. He's 6'6", but he is built so solidly. Just has that body like a tank.

I really like him. I'd take him anywhere he falls. Defensive wing who finishes at a super high rate, and has a smooth shot. I don't see any major issues with his shot. He probably hasn't taken a lot of 3's earlier in life because he can't be stopped at the basket.

I've been seeing McDaniels for the Cavs. I think Okoro looks like a much better prospect. Looks like an above average wing in the NBA for sure.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Just watched Okoro a little. You are totally right on his finishing. His center of gravity is immovable. He has that really solid balance that guys can't shake him off of. I saw one move, where he was prepared to take contact at the rim, and the guy just moved out of the way, and he just adjusted perfectly and its smoothly went in. He has that rare touch around the basket and elevates so there isn't much you can do.

FT% is bad. 3pt % is bad, but yeah he looks smart and he has an innate feel for the game. He would be a great guy to add to our core. He's 6'6", but he is built so solidly. Just has that body like a tank.

I really like him. I'd take him anywhere he falls. Defensive wing who finishes at a super high rate, and has a smooth shot. I don't see any major issues with his shot. He probably hasn't taken a lot of 3's earlier in life because he can't be stopped at the basket.

I've been seeing McDaniels for the Cavs. I think Okoro looks like a much better prospect. Looks like an above average wing in the NBA for sure.

He plays the 4 and 5 as well. He is really versatile, especially if he manages to improve his shot.
I just don't see many guys at his age have that sort of balance, feel and touch on their finishes.

 

[Cavatt]

He plays the 4 and 5 as well. He is really versatile, especially if he manages to improve his shot.
I just don't see many guys at his age have that sort of balance, feel and touch on their finishes.

I think you take your chances that you can teach him to shoot the 3. I saw a highlight where he did an escape dribble and nailed the 3 a la Kevin Love. I don't see anything problematic with his shot. Surely he can learn that.

Everything else seems great. I am just thinking about having him and KPJ on the wing defensively, and that would really put the Cavs in a good spot.

I see some of the same things I liked about KPJ even though their games are very different. Patience and deceleration around the basket to get the best look. Great footwork. Reading the open space well and waiting for the right moment as it opens to attack. Big difference here is that he is starting and his numbers back up what I am seeing. He's shooting 57% from the floor despite hitting 24% from 3. Let's hope we can get him. Wow it would be crazy to get him with a second pick if he stays in the teen range. If we are around 8 again, I would not hesitate for a second.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I think you take your chances that you can teach him to shoot the 3. I saw a highlight where he did an escape dribble and nailed the 3 a la Kevin Love. I don't see anything problematic with his shot. Surely he can learn that.

Everything else seems great. I am just thinking about having him and KPJ on the wing defensively, and that would really put the Cavs in a good spot.

I see some of the same things I liked about KPJ even though their games are very different. Patience and deceleration around the basket to get the best look. Great footwork. Reading the open space well and waiting for the right moment as it opens to attack. Big difference here is that he is starting and his numbers back up what I am seeing. He's shooting 57% from the floor despite hitting 24% from 3. Let's hope we can get him. Wow it would be crazy to get him with a second pick if he stays in the teen range. If we are around 8 again, I would not hesitate for a second.

I want a top 3 pick and to trade back. Getting him and Toppin would be nuts....for example.
Or, trading back, snagging him and a future 1st round pick..

 

[Nathan S]

Don't really like McDaniels. Highest turnover rate on his team in spite of being the 3rd/4th option offensively is a red flag. Seems like a good defender, but I can imagine him being a big dud on offense at the next level.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

@Nathan S thoughts on Obi Toppin? Paul Reed?
Paul Reed looks like a rich man's Jerami Grant.

 

[Muffinalt]

@Nathan S thoughts on Obi Toppin? Paul Reed?
Paul Reed looks like a rich man's Jerami Grant.

Yeah that's my comp for Reed too. Which is a super super nice player to have.

Love Toppin too as you know. But would you really take the both of them? I think it would be difficult to bring along both of in the same year.

There are some really nice players in this draft though. No superstar top heavy, but many quality pieces to build upon a nice core.

 

[Cavatt]

I want a top 3 pick and to trade back. Getting him and Toppin would be nuts....for example.
Or, trading back, snagging him and a future 1st round pick..

Yeah I love Toppin. I agree. If you could get both of those guys instead of any of the guards at 4, I'd do that in a heartbeat.

I'm ok bringing in a bunch of young guys. I think Beilein has handled that part well so far. Both Garland and Porter looking good. That kind of work from the young guys(which has been fantastic supposedly) I think it is safe to bring in more. Both these dudes seem really high IQ and hard workers. That's a sick young core, and even if there is no star out of that group, I think it gives you the option to trade for one later with a nice collection of talent.

 

[Nathan S]

@Nathan S thoughts on Obi Toppin? Paul Reed?
Paul Reed looks like a rich man's Jerami Grant.

Toppin looks really good...big reservation with him is that he's really a Junior, and at 22 years old in March a somewhat old Junior. Paul Reed on the other hand is young for his class, a 20-year-old Junior who won't turn 21 until this summer.

Of course, while Toppin's a bona-fide 2-way player, Reed has a lot of work to do offensively. His low 3-point rate, low free throw rate, and poor assist:TO ratio paint an ugly picture. Unlike McDaniels, though, Reed is probably good enough defensively that he'll stick even if his offense never pans out.

Last year my draft rater really didn't like Toppin, and was ambivalent on Reed. Obviously, both have made significant improvements in key areas like steal rate, 3-point rate, and free throw rate this year that would probably help their ratings if I re-calculated them.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Can someone explain the fascination with Josh Green?
Isaac Okoro to me is the much better prospect.

I think it is two things.....

1. Green, to me, looks like a more projectable shooter at the next level
2. Green, to me, looks like a more creative passer

I think they are very similar players......long, athletic, defensive types who have more limited offensive ceilings.....but I think Green is a bit more likely to reach his and I think it is higher too. So that combination of likelihood to reach / higher apex tends to have me lean towards Green.

Just analytically, they are almost identical.....kind of that generic 1st round ish wing profile, in terms of overall impact. Okoro has been trending more as borderline 1st rounder through half a season, because of all his shooting red flags.

Just to reiterate.....that is historical ranking. I think this is a pretty weak draft on the wing.....so obviously, they'll both be 1st rounders......but across the 10 year spectrum of possession data, their numbers are just really average for a wing considered a 1st round talent.

I was waiting to compile some 2020 ranks until about the 2/3 way point......I can pull specific players if anyone is curious about someone but it's a larger favor to ask to get all the data on 100+ prospects. I have friends that would surely do it often but I am trying to be a little more judicious in asking for favors.....and the general disappointment of this class has made me be a little more patient in seeing which guys come out of the wash.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Last year my draft rater really didn't like Toppin, and was ambivalent on Reed. Obviously, both have made significant improvements in key areas like steal rate, 3-point rate, and free throw rate this year that would probably help their ratings if I re-calculated them.

Toppin has plus ratings in my stuff......but you look at his production and it's kind of the same story for me with someone like Haliburton. I just think Toppin, given his mix of metrics, is more of a high floor guy but he doesn't do really anything at an elite level, at least not what traditional top 10 PF's do.......and if you say scoring, which maybe there's an argument for, he has some serious red flags there. He has a really low FTA/FGA rate.......I need to look more closely but at first glance, if he's a PF, I didn't see a single top 10 pick even in the same below average zone he is in. Top 10 PF's, at the college level, tend to draw a lot of fouls per FGA. Couple that with what looks like below average FT shooting, just average 3PT shooting and I think that is just a scary mix of metrics that tend to say he can't or is unlikely to sustain that scoring in the NBA. He's also tagged as a very obvious shooting regression candidate in my stuff, which has been really good at weeding out big men specifically.

Again, I haven't spent much time watching tape on any of these guys but that is kind of the story of this draft, given who I have looked at thus far. A lot of guys generally have a positive impact but they unfortunately have kind of skill mixes that really lower their apex's in a way that is a bit of a drag.

 

[Nathan S]

I think it is two things.....

1. Green, to me, looks like a more projectable shooter at the next level
2. Green, to me, looks like a more creative passer

I think they are very similar players......long, athletic, defensive types who have more limited offensive ceilings.....but I think Green is a bit more likely to reach his and I think it is higher too. So that combination of likelihood to reach / higher apex tends to have me lean towards Green.

Just analytically, they are almost identical.....kind of that generic 1st round ish wing profile, in terms of impact. Okoro has been trending more as borderline 1st rounder through half a season, because of all his shooting red flags.

Just to reiterate.....that is historical ranking. I think this is a pretty weak draft on the wing.....so obviously, they'll both be 1st rounders......but across the 10 year spectrum of possession data, their numbers are just really average for a wing considered a 1st round talent.

I was waiting to compile some 2020 ranks until about the 2/3 way point......I can pull specific players if anyone is curious about someone but it's a larger favor to ask to get all the data on 100+ prospects. I have friends that would surely do it often but I am trying to be a little more judicious in asking for favors.....and the general disappointment of this class has made me be a little more patient in seeing which guys come out of the wash.

I don't normally have 2-point efficiency near the top of my key indicators list, but Okoro's 66% shooting inside the arc (vs 48% for Green) really pops, and separates him from the "generic 1st round wing" profile you talk about. Again, not fully bought in on account of his weak schedule so far, but he's an outlier if he keeps it up for the rest of the season.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I don't normally have 2-point efficiency near the top of my key indicators list, but Okoro's 66% shooting inside the arc (vs 48% for Green) really pops, and separates him from the "generic 1st round wing" profile you talk about. Again, not fully bought in on account of his weak schedule so far, but he's an outlier if he keeps it up for the rest of the season.

I don't see that it means much for wing players......but it would be a plus I guess.

Out of 400 players in my drafted player database, here are the top 10 wings in 2PT FG%

Kostas Antetokounmpo
Victor Oladipo
Sam Dekker
Khyri Thomas
Josh Harrellson
Melvin Frazier
Jake Layman
Kevin Huerter
Jae Crowder
Jeremy Lamb

Even if you extend to top 20, that list just generally looks the same. Oladipo is really the only difference making player on that list but he had far better shooting indicators.

Certainly it matters if you are in the lower band.....but generally speaking, I don't really see the top 1/3rd of that stat meaning a whole lot, if other shooting indicators are not present.

An over simplification for wings is honestly to not draft a guy who's a sub 75% FT shooter......unless he's Ben Simmons. All the difference making players in the possession era were at or above that watermark. A few plus VORP guys below but all the All-Stars / All-NBA guys were above. Simmons may buck that trend but he's just supremely talented physically in ways none of the guys below that line are. Certainly the outlier.

 

[Nathan S]

I don't see that it means much for wing players......but it would be a plus I guess.

Out of 400 players in my drafted player database, here are the top 10 wings in 2PT FG%

Kostas Antetokounmpo
Victor Oladipo
Sam Dekker
Khyri Thomas
Josh Harrellson
Melvin Frazier
Jake Layman
Kevin Huerter
Jae Crowder
Jeremy Lamb

Even if you extend to top 20, that list just generally looks the same. Oladipo is really the only difference making player on that list but he had far better shooting indicators.

Certainly it matters if you are in the lower band.....but generally speaking, I don't really see the top 1/3rd of that stat meaning a whole lot, if other shooting indicators are not present.

The only other freshman on that list is Kostas, and he averaged a whole 5ppg, so I don't think you can take his efficiency too seriously. Everyone else was in the 40's or 50's as a freshman and only worked their way into the 60's as a sophomore or junior. And still none of them reached Okoro's 66%.


Totally agree that there's not a strong correlation between 2pt% and success historically. I'm just always wary of outliers, and so far Okoro's an outlier.

 

[Cavatt]

The only other freshman on that list is Kostas, and he averaged a whole 5ppg, so I don't think you can take his efficiency too seriously. Everyone else was in the 40's or 50's as a freshman and only worked their way into the 60's as a sophomore or junior. And still none of them reached Okoro's 66%.


Totally agree that there's not a strong correlation between 2pt% and success historically. I'm just always wary of outliers, and so far Okoro's an outlier.

It's the way he is getting that high fg%. He is driving through 3 guys and finding the seems in the defense. Could be an awesome pick and roll partner like Harrell or just attack the rim on his own.

With more space in the NBA, I don't think guys will be able to stop him at the rim.