2020 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

Have to say, I'm pretty skeptical about the level of competition he's facing. Maccabi Tel Aviv won those games by 32 and 38 points. Take it with a grain of salt IMO.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Have to say, I'm pretty skeptical about the level of competition he's facing. Maccabi Tel Aviv won those games by 32 and 38 points. Take it with a grain of salt IMO.

Are they better or worse than college competition?
He only played like 44 minutes combined.

 

[Ozone]

Have to say, I'm pretty skeptical about the level of competition he's facing. Maccabi Tel Aviv won those games by 32 and 38 points. Take it with a grain of salt IMO.

obviously whenever he is playing against decent defenses one could walk away impressed if he holds his own, but not impressed enough imo to start ranking him higher than his limitations have capped his ceiling.
Some say he is plenty quick laterally but it is widely viewed to be the opposite although most are cool with his straightline speed even though is'nt elite or anything either, and their are legit concerns about him defending one on one in the NBA especially on the perimeter against athletic wings.
Even if he gets strong enough to hold his own against 4's he lacks the length and explosiveness to handle defending them and would still struggle to defend mobile bigs even more.
I think in as much as this class lacks elite upside options esp at the 4 somebody could talk themselves into thinking Avdija and his versatile skill set as a playmaker and transition scorer are worth a high pick, but imo it's clear those reasons are governed by the lack of versatile playmakers that are not guards in this class and really is not a good enough reason to pick him over clearly more prototypical NBA athletes and in the top 6 for sure there are also more than enough options with better floors as defenders and a few with much higher floors as shooters scorers and project to be exceptional 2-way players long term.
All that being said I get the frustrations with other prospects with clearly higher upsides like Wiseman who is all over the place as a option right now, has a much lower floor on papaer because of the small sample despite the college sample was one of dominance but the lack of consistent improvement in his decisions over the course of his history being much the same as Avdija's lack of improvement as a shooter.
I am much more comfortable with higher floor option forwards that are considered so for their defense if they also have elite physical tools and a developing offensive game than offensively gifted ones who lack the length and athleticism to become elite defenders.esp in Avdijas case because he also lacks a elite jumper to cover for it.

 

[Randolphkeys]

What makes other players in the lottery have more upside? How do you calculate upside without sufficient data?

We are in for the most challenging pre-draft process in NBA history. I'm not defending some of the wild generalizations ozone made about Deni, but we have a "perfect storm" of the problems with youth basketball compounded with an unexpected shutdown of crucial exposure.

The past few years have shown me that the loopholes of the "one and done" rule are out in the open. Not only are established college programs being exposed as flagrantly paying off the prospects, assuming they will declare for the draft and investigation cant make connections fast enough, but now players are literally hiding their skillsets. Players know which teams are interested in them before their post high school career even begins, so if a minor injury pops up, they pack it in until the draft.

In the past, a franchise like the Cavs could navigate through some of these prima donnas by looking at players with a steep improvement curve. Picking Sexton and Windler shows the value of scouting for work ethic. However, the shutdown makes it hard to gauge steep improvement curves.

They are then trying to play the same game they played with Garland. Is he improving without competition? Is he sand bagging to try to join a different franchise later in the draft? It takes power away from the Cavs scouts. The idea that Darius Bazley could skip playing for a year in order to manipulate the team who drafted him shows just how broken the draft system has become.

I do like Deni and I'd be fine if the Cavs end up with him. I see him as a potential starting wing early who could figure out how to be like Domantas Sabonis down the line as a skilled playmaking big. There are just so many questions with all these prospects. It's another tough year to have a high pick, and the Cavs have been down this road many times before. I felt more comfortable scouting out the quagmire of the 2013 draft.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

We are in for the most challenging pre-draft process in NBA history. I'm not defending some of the wild generalizations ozone made about Deni, but we have a "perfect storm" of the problems with youth basketball compounded with an unexpected shutdown of crucial exposure.

The past few years have shown me that the loopholes of the "one and done" rule are out in the open. Not only are established college programs being exposed as flagrantly paying off the prospects, assuming they will declare for the draft and investigation cant make connections fast enough, but now players are literally hiding their skillsets. Players know which teams are interested in them before their post high school career even begins, so if a minor injury pops up, they pack it in until the draft.

In the past, a franchise like the Cavs could navigate through some of these prima donnas by looking at players with a steep improvement curve. Picking Sexton and Windler shows the value of scouting for work ethic. However, the shutdown makes it hard to gauge steep improvement curves.

They are then trying to play the same game they played with Garland. Is he improving without competition? Is he sand bagging to try to join a different franchise later in the draft? It takes power away from the Cavs scouts.

I do like Deni and I'd be fine if the Cavs end up with him. I see him as a potential starting wing early who could figure out how to be like Domantas Sabonis down the line as a skilled playmaking big. There are just so many questions with all these prospects. It's another tough year to have a high pick, and the Cavs have been down this road many times before. I felt more comfortable scouting out the quagmire of the 2013 draft.

I think they need to evaluate Garland now as it is most crucial. I don't know how they are going to do that. The reasoning is that on paper LaMelo has the highest upside right? just based on tape and measurements. I'm not saying that he is going to be an impact player or the best player in this draft as he put up numbers but lacked any real impact and that's a red flag to me, and I do hate that family and it would be damn hard to root for him. And yet, you don't see many PGs with that type of skillset+measurements.

considering these peculiar circumstances(weak draft data and stacked high lottery backcourt with Porter emerging) I fail to see how we are going to go on about this if a PG is BPA. I don't think we can really take BPA when there is no significant separation between the players.

And honestly, I don't like the fact that he doesn't play defense or his attitude. I can't deny his talent, I just don't think he has a winner's attitude nor do I think his game translates to winning at this stage.

It is going to be tough, but I do think we have to take BPA+positional fit and versatility more than ever. We need to allow this group to grow because everyone of has the potential to be a star (Garland, Sexton, Porter). Adding a LaMelo Ball is definitely going to hurt their ability to reach that potential.

This is why i'm trending towards players that can contribute and develop even when being asked to be passive.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I think they need to evaluate Garland now as it is most crucial. I don't know how they are going to do that. The reasoning is that on paper LaMelo has the highest upside right? just based on tape and measurements. I'm not saying that he is going to be an impact player or the best player in this draft as he put up numbers but lacked any real impact and that's a red flag to me, and I do hate that family and it would be damn hard to root for him. And yet, you don't see many PGs with that type of skillset+measurements.

considering these peculiar circumstances(weak draft data and stacked high lottery backcourt with Porter emerging) I fail to see how we are going to go on about this if a PG is BPA. I don't think we can really take BPA when there is no significant separation between the players.

And honestly, I don't like the fact that he doesn't play defense or his attitude. I can't deny his talent, I just don't think he has a winner's attitude nor do I think his game translates to winning at this stage.

It is going to be tough, but I do think we have to take BPA+positional fit and versatility more than ever. We need to allow this group to grow because everyone of has the potential to be a star (Garland, Sexton, Porter). Adding a LaMelo Ball is definitely going to hurt their ability to reach that potential.

This is why i'm trending towards players that can contribute and develop even when being asked to be passive.

LaMelo has more positional flexibility than others at the top of the lottery. There is no doubt he has improved his frame since leaving high school, and with his measurements that is just as encouraging as any in the Covid-19 scouting world. I'd personally be much more concerned with the Cavs drafting Edwards, who is a pure shooting guard, or Wiseman, who is a pure center. With both Devi and LaMelo, I see players who can help the whole offense play more of a team concept on offense despite some athleticism limitations. LaMelo is no more a pure point guard as Devi is a pure wing. I do not know who among Garland and Sexton will emerge next season, but I know Ball could thrive playing next to either. And yes, his father would be a douche-canoe the entire time.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

LaMelo has more positional flexibility than others at the top of the lottery. There is no doubt he has improved his frame since leaving high school, and with his measurements that is just as encouraging as any in the Covid-19 scouting world. I'd personally be much more concerned with the Cavs drafting Edwards, who is a pure shooting guard, or Wiseman, who is a pure center. With both Devi and LaMelo, I see players who can help the whole offense play more of a team concept on offense despite some athleticism limitations. LaMelo is no more a pure point guard as Devi is a pure wing. I do not know who among Garland and Sexton will emerge next season, but I know Ball could thrive playing next to either. And yes, his father would be a douche-canoe the entire time.

The issue I foresee with LaMelo is that he is ball dominant and a high USG player. That could deter the other high upside players from taking initiative. His positional flexibility could prove to be overrated for the fact that I don't believe he can guard any position very well at all. He gets killed on screens, is lazy and gets lost off the ball. That means that defending starting SGs and PGs could prove to be problematic. Also, I defending starting SFs would also not be optimal.

Edwards could become the best player in the draft, like so many others. But he certainly does not warrant a top 3 pick by the Cavs as he resembles Sexton and Porter a lot and is limited to only 2 positions.

So who do you have in mind? I have a bitter taste in my mouth when I think of LaMelo on the Cavs. His fucking father man.

 

[Ozone]

We are in for the most challenging pre-draft process in NBA history. I'm not defending some of the wild generalizations ozone made about Deni, but we have a "perfect storm" of the problems with youth basketball compounded with an unexpected shutdown of crucial exposure.

The past few years have shown me that the loopholes of the "one and done" rule are out in the open. Not only are established college programs being exposed as flagrantly paying off the prospects, assuming they will declare for the draft and investigation cant make connections fast enough, but now players are literally hiding their skillsets. Players know which teams are interested in them before their post high school career even begins, so if a minor injury pops up, they pack it in until the draft.

In the past, a franchise like the Cavs could navigate through some of these prima donnas by looking at players with a steep improvement curve. Picking Sexton and Windler shows the value of scouting for work ethic. However, the shutdown makes it hard to gauge steep improvement curves.

They are then trying to play the same game they played with Garland. Is he improving without competition? Is he sand bagging to try to join a different franchise later in the draft? It takes power away from the Cavs scouts. The idea that Darius Bazley could skip playing for a year in order to manipulate the team who drafted him shows just how broken the draft system has become.

I do like Deni and I'd be fine if the Cavs end up with him. I see him as a potential starting wing early who could figure out how to be like Domantas Sabonis down the line as a skilled playmaking big. There are just so many questions with all these prospects. It's another tough year to have a high pick, and the Cavs have been down this road many times before. I felt more comfortable scouting out the quagmire of the 2013 draft.

just curious: what generalizations would you like me to clarify? fyi imo Sabonis as a Avdija ceiling is not too realistic. Not unless you think Avdija is sandbaggin his apparent lack of a 2nd jump and has more arm length tucked under his jersey to play above the rim off 2 feet.
I hate to sound so grumpy, but there is really nothing about Avdija over the course of his early pro career that showed enough improvement as a shooter to make up for his lack of defensive upside. He is a super smart player that gets things done as a playmaker against inferior competition and usually fails against good defenses.
Hayes is the best intl player in the draft and the only one who could go or should go top 6 and thats with other guard options also worthy whereas Deni has no comp in the lottery.
I think Okongwu or WIseman has to be the Cavs choice unless they are done with Garland already.
If both those bigs are taken when they pick and they are going to give Garland more time as they should instead of selling low,even if it means him as a bench player then they look hard at Vassell,Okoro,Edwards and so on.
There is little chance all those options are gone at 6th should they fall to it. Not with the guard options like Ball Halliburton Hayes and Anthony all top 6 worthy.
I think if they go lead guard they should take Hayes over Ball or others. He would not be a flight risk has a exceptional size for the position and would fit well with the other 3 guards on the roster.
I would be more than content trading down if Wiseman and Okongwu were gone but I think we will be able to get one even at 4th

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

What's so great about Okongwu or even Wiseman?

 

[Randolphkeys]

I see that both @Ozone and @Sir'Dom Pointer are asking who I have in mind. My thesis is that this draft isn't a good draft to die on any hills. Like Sir'Dom, I'm prioritizing players who play a team-oriented approach with positional flexibility. Despite the enthusiasm I felt for this draft six months ago, my expectations are low. I just want a useful rotation player for the next five years. I believe the coaching Ball received in Australia made him a better fit as a pro than if he stayed in the college game. I wish he played in more games. I think Deni had to learn how to fit into a team as a high end role player. The Cavs could use one and coach him up, ceiling is the big question. Sabonis had serious question marks five years ago as well, the question is how well Deni addresses those holes.

I do believe that trading down will be unlikely. Every team is content to see if one of their guys drop. The payoff that the Hawks enjoyed for dropping a spot to lose out on Doncic and still grab Young just isn't going to be there. I like Okoro later in the draft, but is dropping four or five slots going to gain any real value in return? I highly doubt it.

This isn't going to be easy for the Cavs. I'd like to know more about who the organization feels is a major piece long-term. If they have a plan and one player's skill set fits that plan, I'm open minded. I've been harsh on the Cavs front office in the past, but I won't be this year.

 

[Nathan S]

obviously whenever he is playing against decent defenses one could walk away impressed if he holds his own, but not impressed enough imo to start ranking him higher than his limitations have capped his ceiling.
Some say he is plenty quick laterally but it is widely viewed to be the opposite although most are cool with his straightline speed even though is'nt elite or anything either, and their are legit concerns about him defending one on one in the NBA especially on the perimeter against athletic wings.
Even if he gets strong enough to hold his own against 4's he lacks the length and explosiveness to handle defending them and would still struggle to defend mobile bigs even more.
I think in as much as this class lacks elite upside options esp at the 4 somebody could talk themselves into thinking Avdija and his versatile skill set as a playmaker and transition scorer are worth a high pick, but imo it's clear those reasons are governed by the lack of versatile playmakers that are not guards in this class and really is not a good enough reason to pick him over clearly more prototypical NBA athletes and in the top 6 for sure there are also more than enough options with better floors as defenders and a few with much higher floors as shooters scorers and project to be exceptional 2-way players long term.
All that being said I get the frustrations with other prospects with clearly higher upsides like Wiseman who is all over the place as a option right now, has a much lower floor on papaer because of the small sample despite the college sample was one of dominance but the lack of consistent improvement in his decisions over the course of his history being much the same as Avdija's lack of improvement as a shooter.
I am much more comfortable with higher floor option forwards that are considered so for their defense if they also have elite physical tools and a developing offensive game than offensively gifted ones who lack the length and athleticism to become elite defenders.esp in Avdijas case because he also lacks a elite jumper to cover for it.

IMO a lot of it comes down to Euro stereotypes. Some guys like Dario Saric really fit the stereotypes. Deni really doesn't. I've never seen any evidence of athletic limitations when I've watched him play. On the other hand (because of the same stereotypes) I think his playmaking ability is a little overblown. He's very above average for a player his size, but not nearly good enough to be a point forward and run an offense like some are envisioning.

Are they better or worse than college competition?
He only played like 44 minutes combined.

Comparable I guess? Important to note that even the worst team in Israeli League, Maccabi Ashdod, is packed with guys who were very good NCAA players, and have generally improved since then:

LaDontae Henton, averaged 20 points and 7 boards per game as a college senior, was All-Big East 1st team

Paul Stoll, averaged 14 points, 7 assists, 2.6 steals per game as a college senior, was All-Independent 1st team

Noah Dickerson averaged 16 points and 8 boards as a junior, All-Pac12

Elijah Johnson was KU's starting PG his Junior/Senior year, All-Big12 honorable mention

Stu Douglass was a 4-year starter for Michigan

Ike Ofoegbu averaged 14 and 8 for Southern Methodist, All-CUSA 3rd team

And that's (obviously) not including all their international players. So yeah, reasonable to say that even the worst team in Israeli League would probably be a pretty good team in the NCAA. But that said, it's always easier to put up big, efficient numbers when you're playing on an elite team that completely outclasses your opponents. And that's definitely the situation for Deni.

 

[Ozone]

What's so great about Okongwu or even Wiseman?

Both are projected to be high caliber ball-screen switching, shot-blocking, lob-catching centers one with exceptional explosiveness has already proven to be those things just mentioned in Okongwu with elite defensive IQ and the other although in a small college level window showed his floor is a high caliber game changer in the paint with elite measureables .
Okongwu has a 42" vert , Wiseman has a 7'6" wingspan.
If Okongwu had BAM's handles he would be the consensus 1 pick in this class just based on his 2 way impact in college and is already a far better scorer around the basket than BAM was in college which is promising.
Wiseman is my 2nd ranked big and worth the pick for Cavs over guards despite the fact that it cannot be ignored how he needs to be coached up to become the same level of instictive player as Big O is and the risk is a little higher.

 

[Nathan S]

Both are projected to be high caliber ball-screen switching, shot-blocking, lob-catching centers one with exceptional explosiveness has already proven to be those things just mentioned in Okongwu with elite defensive IQ and the other although in a small college level window showed his floor is a high caliber game changer in the paint with elite measureables .
Okongwu has a 42" vert , Wiseman has a 7'6" wingspan.
If Okongwu had BAM's handles he would be the consensus 1 pick in this class just based on his 2 way impact in college and is already a far better scorer around the basket than BAM was in college which is promising.
Wiseman is my 2nd ranked big and worth the pick for Cavs over guards despite the fact that it cannot be ignored how he needs to be coached up to become the same level of instictive player as Big O is and the risk is a little higher.

You got a source for that 42" vert? Lmao.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Both are projected to be high caliber ball-screen switching, shot-blocking, lob-catching centers one with exceptional explosiveness has already proven to be those things just mentioned in Okongwu with elite defensive IQ and the other although in a small college level window showed his floor is a high caliber game changer in the paint with elite measureables .
Okongwu has a 42" vert , Wiseman has a 7'6" wingspan.
If Okongwu had BAM's handles he would be the consensus 1 pick in this class just based on his 2 way impact in college and is already a far better scorer around the basket than BAM was in college which is promising.
Wiseman is my 2nd ranked big and worth the pick for Cavs over guards despite the fact that it cannot be ignored how he needs to be coached up to become the same level of instictive player as Big O is and the risk is a little higher.

You are completely mistaken. Wiseman is not a switching big, and while he is pretty athletic and has tremendous wingspan he bobbles the ball way too frequently to be a high level lob target.

What makes him a better prospect than Ayton? probably nothing.

Big O is a switchable defender and he has good shot blocking instincts. They remind me of Jaren Jackson, but to me when compared to Jackson, he lacks the height and the length compared to JJ, and that makes me concerned about how it would transfer to the pros -- Like Tristan Thompson, it just never did. And Jaren Jackson while a good shot blocker in the NBA, he does not have nearly the same impact as he did in College. Also, aside from shot blocking, would his size limit his effectiveness battling starting NBA centers? I dunno. It could.

I just don't love selecting bigs unless they really stand out. Unfortunately we did not have the chance to watch them play for very long.

 

[Randolphkeys]

My only issue with Wiseman is team defense and P n' R defense.

Again, this is a prime example of how badly the American youth system is failing basketball fans. This s a guy who was treated as a star centerpiece of an offense, and has no idea how to play a team game on offense. That is fixable, of course Andre Drummond is a cautionary tale of when it doesn't get fixed. On the other hand, Marquese Chris looked useless with the Cavs, then this season tightened up his game at age 22 and became at least useful. The lack of development outside of the narrow role AAU basketball coaches provide is staggering once a young player gets to the pros.

Defense is the big problem. I'd wager to guess his AAU coaches didn't want him to get into foul trouble, so he played some olé style team defense if the guard penetrates into the lane. This could have possibly been coached out of him as a 19 year old, but after a few games he was shut down.

So drafting Wiseman is drafting a set of tools, not drafting a player who helps the team from day one.