cabs
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I hope you're right because I think we are gonna draft either him or Ball depending on where our pick lands
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2020 NBA Draft
- Thread starter blommen
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He is weak for sure to be a early impact player, so imo he is a project. He even knows it, and the fact that he puts up big numbers against garbage scrubs and tries to claim it's based on conditioning improvement compared to his trash stat line in Euroleague proves it.
https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/1072594/avdija-people-saying-i-am-weak-motivates-me/
Sir'Dom Pointer
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Those scrubs are still better than 97% of NCAA teams.
I'mWithDan
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I'd love to see some sort of competition study done on this........I'm not sure such a study is possible but I think it it something that is said a lot but is likely not true.
I'm willing to concede this point on Euroleague......that it is 100% better competition....but these random foreign leagues? Guys from the MAC go over and make 10-15 year careers in them.
I don't think leagues like the ones Deni is putting up numbers in are much better than elite HS competition. Maybe that is harsh.....but someone like Edwards would score 40 points a game in those Israeli leagues.
- James Young washed out of the NBA in 3-4 years and is putting up 21 a game in that league, as the leagues leading scorer.
- Marcus Foster was undrafted and has yet to play an NBA regular season game and is scoring 20.
- Justin Tillman was undrafted and a G-League also ran and is scoring 20.
- TJ Williams was undrafted and a G-League also ran and is scoring 19.
I really don't like Deni at all.....He has an interesting frame.....but his success is so predicated on shooting IMO and all the shooting markers tend to suggest he's not necessarily a projectable one. His per 36 numbers in Euroleague are also just not good. He doesn't draw fouls at a high rate, he doesn't shoot well from the FT line, not much of an assist generator, mediocre 1.6 STL + BLK per 36....just all the red flags are there against high competition. I'd take him as a project, with a mid to late 1st but taking him in the top 10, even in a draft like this, is just a reach to me. If we are talking top 5-6, yikes.
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You have ignored the very real fact that a basketball prime does not occur between the ages of 19 and 21. The 20 year old James Young who played for the Celtics was a project wing at the end of the bench. The 24 year old James Young playing in the Israeli League is his best self. That is why NBA teams consider drafting a junior or senior from the NCAA a bigger risk than drafting a one and done freshman who showed some pro-level tools.
Is that a good system? Of course not. Youth basketball in America is so broken that many blue chip prospects are choosing not to participate in the college game. That is why scrutinizing the Euroleague development programs aren't a valid excuse... NCAA has fallen pretty far behind a long time ago.
Maybe, debateable since you could argue the best teams in college are way better than
any of these teams he is facing, even though the majority of college teams are similar.
Stop for a second and think about how does the Euroleague where he averages 4 points compare to the NBA? I am sure you will agree it is what Akron is to Cleveland .
see the point now I am sure right?
He has the opportunity to show it would transfer and doesn't get it done proving he is a project and not the NBA ready player many are tagging him as due to an above average IQ
Sir'Dom Pointer
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No, because I watch the games.
The difference is confidence, role, minutes. Not that he can't perform physically or is just outmatched in the EL. Also, the confidence of his teammates has grown remarkably since the start of the year, and therefore he gets more opportunities to do more, and shoot more.
EL defense is again, stronger than the NBA. Avdija will benefit from the spacing and fast break opportunities that the NBA will provide.
Avdija is probably more NBA ready than you think.
I'mWithDan
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Keys, come on.
Young was cut from a G-League team in January of last year. A guy who a year ago couldn't even stick in the G-League is leading the IPBL league in scoring. From what I see, he doesn't have a camp invite anywhere. It just speaks to Deni's stats meaning nothing in that league for me. Anyone with a pulse goes there and puts up numbers. Manny Harris even dropped in for a few games and was scoring nearly 30. He has tools and a nice frame, there are just fewer paths to NBA success for his player type IMO. I'm not saying he can't succeed but seeing his Euroleague sample has to make people uneasy.....he doesn't draw FT's, he doesn't shoot FT's well, he fouls at a high rate, he doesn't generate hustle stats relative to his position or more specifically role....it is questionable if he has projectable NBA shooting. Mechanically, guys who have two part shooting motions tend to really struggle in leagues like the NBA, where contest pressure is so high. It is probable that is why his shooting splits are so different between the two leagues. Euro better simulates the closeout and contest pressure he will have to shoot under. His drive charts are a little concerning too, relative to how right hand dominate he seems to be when attacking. He's going to be forced left against bigger and better athletes and it will be interesting to see if he can improve / adjust / compensate.
His highlight reels are promising but his game to game impact or even minute to minute impact is pretty pedestrian for someone getting this much buzz. I know he's young and he has tools.......I'm just really skeptical relative to his production against better competition. To me, he has to be incredible as a creator and ball dominator to offset the things I think he won't be very good at initially at the NBA level.....and his Euro tape doesn't intimate that will be the case. I just don't see how he is NBA ready.....I suppose you could argue that in a supporting role (4th/5th) man.....ala in GSW but I can't imagine he's ready to step in to a bad situation and have even sort of secondary scoring burdens like he would have here.
I'mWithDan
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Watching film......he CLEARLY has better than above average IQ. To me, even someone who is very skeptical of him as a prospect, the selling point is most certainly the feel and awareness with which he plays. He's smart, he sees the floor well, he makes the right BBall plays and his IQ tends to really show up as a team defender. I think he will struggle in isolation but his tape does show he's already a very good team defender, which to me, is the pillar of a high BBall IQ player. Understanding rotations, where help needs to be, how to help, when to gamble, etc. .....guys with average or above average IQ just do not do those things consistently. His basketball IQ is what allows much of his projection IMO......because you'd imagine a player that plays with as much awareness and smarts has a chance to figure things out as he steps up in competition.
Cavatt
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Yeah this is it to me. Which guys with great IQ and good athleticism flame out of the NBA?
Feel/IQ, Skills, and Athleticism makes stars in my opinion, and athleticism is the only negotiable one. If you have enough of the first 2 you can survive without the last.
I could buy that his ceiling isn't that high and he can't be a star player, but he seems like a guaranteed rotation player to me. teh shooting I am not concerned about at all. Not at all. He is good enough and one thing the developmental staff have succeeded in is making shooters out of guys that were so so. Cedi who shot similar on FT's and was similarly labelled a "no projectable shooter" lead the team in 3pt% this year, Sexton who was a project shooter, and "hitch in his shot" Porter.
I was high on Porter last year, and it largely had to do with the fact that his game looked like an NBA game. I see the same thing here with Deni. His game is the NBA game. If anything I think it fits his playstyle more. I would not take him #1, but after 3 I would.
Fran Fraschilla is high on him. I think he has a better handle on Euro guys than the other draft dudes
“Athleticism and versatility makes Avdija such an intriguing NBA prospect” ESPN Basketball Analyst Fran Fraschilla Breaks Down Deni Avdija And His NBA Prospects - Sports Rabbi
Facebook Twitter By: David Barr With the National Basketball Association, Euroleague and Israel’s domestic Winner League on hold there’s no better time to look at the 2020 NBA Draft to help with a hoops fix. Fran Fraschilla has done it all in basketball. A 23-year college coaching career to...
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Keys, come on.
He has tools and a nice frame, there are just fewer paths to NBA success for his player type IMO. I'm not saying he can't succeed but seeing his Euroleague sample has to make people uneasy.....he doesn't draw FT's, he doesn't shoot FT's well, he fouls at a high rate, he doesn't generate hustle stats relative to his position or more specifically role....it is questionable if he has projectable NBA shooting. Mechanically, guys who have two part shooting motions tend to really struggle in leagues like the NBA, where contest pressure is so high. It is probable that is why his shooting splits are so different between the two leagues. Euro better simulates the closeout and contest pressure he will have to shoot under. His drive charts are a little concerning too, relative to how right hand dominate he seems to be when attacking. He's going to be forced left against bigger and better athletes and it will be interesting to see if he can improve / adjust / compensate.
His highlight reels are promising but his game to game impact or even minute to minute impact is pretty pedestrian for someone getting this much buzz. I know he's young and he has tools.......I'm just really skeptical relative to his production against better competition. To me, he has to be incredible as a creator and ball dominator to offset the things I think he won't be very good at initially at the NBA level.....and his Euro tape doesn't intimate that will be the case. I just don't see how he is NBA ready.....I suppose you could argue that in a supporting role (4th/5th) man.....ala in GSW but I can't imagine he's ready to step in to a bad situation and have even sort of secondary scoring burdens like he would have here.
Critiquing the developement of young players in the Euroleague in 2020 can certainly be done, but it's an exercise in hueretics to almost comical degrees. We must first ignore how bad the NCAA has done lately in order to focus on the faults of a functioning and active program.
The tops shelf talent in the Israeli League isn't great and may make Deni seem a little better than he really could be in the NBA. Okay, how did the NCAA do in developing McDonald's All Americans? James Wiseman played three games before his recruiting violations became apparent. That's one year after DeAndre Ayton had to shut it down in February after a similar investigation. The Cavs drafted Garland after he played five games, because apparently the less you play, the less bad habits can be scrutinized.
To keep this as apolitical as possible, we might as well be critiquing a lasagne made in Little Italy while ignoring that the only other option is an Olive Garden with multiple health code violations. I'm just saying at least Deni is out there and improving his game, and we can follow his progress. We can't follow anyone else's progress this draft, and it's quite frustrating.
Keys, come on.
I dunno if this is true, but it's definitely misleading. He was averaging 19 ppg on 58% true shooting in the G-League that year, so it's not like he was struggling or anything.
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The G League pays significantly less than the Euroleague and is without question being used to secure Euroleague contracts.
A few years ago I made a qualitative graph of the "basketball universe"...I couldn't find it, but I've attempted to reproduce it here:
Basically what you see is that the total number of players of a given quality increases exponentially as you go down in quality. If you look at the distribution of only NBA players, however, it's roughly a bell curve. The gap between the bell curve and the exponential curve is largely filled by top European leagues.
Basically what you see is that the total number of players of a given quality increases exponentially as you go down in quality. If you look at the distribution of only NBA players, however, it's roughly a bell curve. The gap between the bell curve and the exponential curve is largely filled by top European leagues.