2020 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

It's important to note that Ball's pure passing are really on another level considering his age and his team situation. Very, very few 18-year-olds put up passing numbers like his (10.9 assists and 4.1 turnovers per 100). Those who do typically play for offensive powerhouse teams where they're surrounded by highly efficient finishers. The opposite was the case for Ball; he played for the lowest-scoring, worst-shooting team in his league. If he had been on an average team, let alone a good team, his already off-the-charts passing stats would almost certainly have been even better. There's a lot of uncertainty around other parts of his game, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him top-10 or even top-5 in the league in assists next year.

 

[Cavatt]

It's important to note that Ball's pure passing are really on another level considering his age and his team situation. Very, very few 18-year-olds put up passing numbers like his (10.9 assists and 4.1 turnovers per 100). Those who do typically play for offensive powerhouse teams where they're surrounded by highly efficient finishers. The opposite was the case for Ball; he played for the lowest-scoring, worst-shooting team in his league. If he had been on an average team, let alone a good team, his already off-the-charts passing stats would almost certainly have been even better. There's a lot of uncertainty around other parts of his game, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him top-10 or even top-5 in the league in assists next year.

Do you think he is a better passer than Trae and Morant?

I'm torn on Ball. I think I take him at #1, and I do like his fit with Sexton. His shot looks so bad. I actually like that he is willing to take it, just wonder if he will ever convert at an efficient clip.

 

[Nathan S]

Do you think he is a better passer than Trae and Morant?

I'm torn on Ball. I think I take him at #1, and I do like his fit with Sexton. His shot looks so bad. I actually like that he is willing to take it, just wonder if he will ever convert at an efficient clip.

There's a bit of a volume vs. efficiency tradeoff, but I think the numbers favor Ball over Young for sure, and arguably Ball over Morant as well.

Ball: 10.9 assists and 4.1 turnovers per 100
Young: 12.9 assists and 7.7 turnovers per 100
Morant: 15.3 assists and 7.8 turnovers per 100

E.g. with Young you get 2.0 more assists, but 3.6 more turnovers. Obviously not good. With Morant you get 4.3 more assists but 3.7 more turnovers. More borderline, but still not a great tradeoff.

Also noteworthy that Ball is a year younger than Morant and Young were going into the draft. Factoring that into his projection, I think it's fair to say he has the edge (from a passing standpoint).

 

[Cavatt]

There's a bit of a volume vs. efficiency tradeoff, but I think the numbers favor Ball over Young for sure, and arguably Ball over Morant as well.

Ball: 10.9 assists and 4.1 turnovers per 100
Young: 12.9 assists and 7.7 turnovers per 100
Morant: 15.3 assists and 7.8 turnovers per 100

E.g. with Young you get 2.0 more assists, but 3.6 more turnovers. Obviously not good. With Morant you get 4.3 more assists but 3.7 more turnovers. More borderline, but still not a great tradeoff.

Also noteworthy that Ball is a year younger than Morant and Young were going into the draft. Factoring that into his projection, I think it's fair to say he has the edge (from a passing standpoint).

Yeah I would say Ball has the edge too. His low turnovers are really amazing, but that is also the thing that a young player usually improves on the most, and improvements in other areas don't come with experience only, like fewer turnovers do.

Did not realize Morant had that high of assists per possession. Impressive.

 

[Nathan S]

Yeah I would say Ball has the edge too. His low turnovers are really amazing, but that is also the thing that a young player usually improves on the most, and improvements in other areas don't come with experience only, like fewer turnovers do.

Did not realize Morant had that high of assists per possession. Impressive.

Yeah, Morant's assist rate was crazy (though he did benefit from Murray State truck-sticking its way through weak defenses for most of the season). And yeah, the low turnover numbers are particularly unusual, especially considering that he's known as a razzle-dazzle passer, not a careful technician. It suggests that he could afford to be even a little *more* daring with his passes. Really excited to see what he can do with real offensive talent around him.

 

[Nathan S]

Going to write a bit more about Nate Hinton, because I think he's a particularly unusual prospect who merits a closer look.

First, let's take a step back and look at Houston. They had the 22nd-ranked offense in the country according to KenPom, which is pretty shocking considering their lack of obvious offensive talent. Freshman Caleb Mills was their leading scorer, averaging a modest 13 ppg on putrid 49% true shooting. Next up was Quentin Grimes, who averaged 12 ppg on 54% true shooting after flaming out at Kansas last year, and then Hinton who chipped in 11 ppg also on 54% true shooting. Not exactly your typical big-3. Overall they shot just 42% from the field, and 34% from 3, and that dropped to 40% from the field and 32% from 3 in conference play. So how did they end up conference champions with a top-25 offense in the country?

The key for them was maximizing possessions by gobbling up offensive rebounds and avoiding turnovers. Hinton was key on both counts, leading the team in offensive boards and averaging just 1.2 turnovers per game. Factor in his team-best 3-point shooting at 39%, and he quietly notched an OBPM of +5.6, an extremely rare feat for a non-PG with such low scoring volume.

Why should we care? Players who can impact the game without dominating the ball are valuable in the NBA, and Hinton is exactly that kind of player. When others are running the show, he'll hit the open 3's and do the dirty work to create extra possessions. Factor in his potential to guard multiple positions on defense thanks to his outstanding frame and high motor (he also led Houston in steals and defensive rebounds), and he's a no-brainer first round pick in my opinion.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Going to write a bit more about Nate Hinton, because I think he's a particularly unusual prospect who merits a closer look.

First, let's take a step back and look at Houston. They had the 22nd-ranked offense in the country according to KenPom, which is pretty shocking considering their lack of obvious offensive talent. Freshman Caleb Mills was their leading scorer, averaging a modest 13 ppg on putrid 49% true shooting. Next up was Quentin Grimes, who averaged 12 ppg on 54% true shooting after flaming out at Kansas last year, and then Hinton who chipped in 11 ppg also on 54% true shooting. Not exactly your typical big-3. Overall they shot just 42% from the field, and 34% from 3, and that dropped to 40% from the field and 32% from 3 in conference play. So how did they end up conference champions with a top-25 offense in the country?

The key for them was maximizing possessions by gobbling up offensive rebounds and avoiding turnovers. Hinton was key on both counts, leading the team in offensive boards and averaging just 1.2 turnovers per game. Factor in his team-best 3-point shooting at 39%, and he quietly notched an OBPM of +5.6, an extremely rare feat for a non-PG with such low scoring volume.

Why should we care? Players who can impact the game without dominating the ball are valuable in the NBA, and Hinton is exactly that kind of player. When others are running the show, he'll hit the open 3's and do the dirty work to create extra possessions. Factor in his potential to guard multiple positions on defense thanks to his outstanding frame and high motor (he also led Houston in steals and defensive rebounds), and he's a no-brainer first round pick in my opinion.

I think this is spot on. All my stuff likes him as well......and his impact adjusted number, less scoring, trails only Halliburton in this class, out of the 65 prospects I have logged. So he certainly does profile as a nice rotational piece who can do the little things.

From a ranking perspective, it puts him in the top 1/3rd of prospects for me, even considering his age......so I would agree that he seems like a nice candidate for a good team, in terms of a plug and play guy who can excel in a non scoring role.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Nate Hinton looks good.
Looks like the only downside is that he looks like Cam Payne.

 

[Nathan S]

Also, I want to bring up some bigs with stretch potential who could probably be had in the late 2nd or for summer league (in addition to Perry and Garza who I've mentioned previously):

-Killian Tillie has kind of been forgotten about, as he struggled with injuries and never developed into a big-time scorer. Still, he has a really sweet 3-point shot (40% this year, and 44.4% over his 4-year career), and he led Gonzaga in steal+block rate as well. Overall his +12.0 box plus/minus ranked top-5 in the country. He should be able to provide useful stretch-4 minutes right away.

-Marko Simonovic showed newfound shooting ability in the Adriatic league this year, making 19 threes at 31% and draining free throws at 80%. That skill combined with his league-best offensive rebound numbers made him a real inside/outside threat. Defensively he's similar to Tillie in that he doesn't have outstanding strength, length, or vertical athleticism, but makes up for it somewhat with IQ and lateral quickness.

-Nathan Knight is another big who developed an outside shot this season, making 29 threes at 31% and converting 78% from the line. Overall he averaged over 40 points and 20 rebounds per 100, steamrolling his way to conference POY and DPOY honors in a weak AAC. He's a more traditional big than Tillie or Simonovic, with a prototypical frame for a modern center, and he seems reasonably though not exceptionally nimble for his size.

 

[Muffinalt]

Going to write a bit more about Nate Hinton, because I think he's a particularly unusual prospect who merits a closer look.

First, let's take a step back and look at Houston. They had the 22nd-ranked offense in the country according to KenPom, which is pretty shocking considering their lack of obvious offensive talent. Freshman Caleb Mills was their leading scorer, averaging a modest 13 ppg on putrid 49% true shooting. Next up was Quentin Grimes, who averaged 12 ppg on 54% true shooting after flaming out at Kansas last year, and then Hinton who chipped in 11 ppg also on 54% true shooting. Not exactly your typical big-3. Overall they shot just 42% from the field, and 34% from 3, and that dropped to 40% from the field and 32% from 3 in conference play. So how did they end up conference champions with a top-25 offense in the country?

The key for them was maximizing possessions by gobbling up offensive rebounds and avoiding turnovers. Hinton was key on both counts, leading the team in offensive boards and averaging just 1.2 turnovers per game. Factor in his team-best 3-point shooting at 39%, and he quietly notched an OBPM of +5.6, an extremely rare feat for a non-PG with such low scoring volume.

Why should we care? Players who can impact the game without dominating the ball are valuable in the NBA, and Hinton is exactly that kind of player. When others are running the show, he'll hit the open 3's and do the dirty work to create extra possessions. Factor in his potential to guard multiple positions on defense thanks to his outstanding frame and high motor (he also led Houston in steals and defensive rebounds), and he's a no-brainer first round pick in my opinion.

Looks like Ozone was right about Hinton

 

[Nathan S]

Looks like Ozone was right about Hinton

I have to admit I'm pretty late realizing Hinton is a legit prospect. Normally when you're scouting an older prospect in a minor conference he's the runaway conference POY. Hinton didn't even make the All-Conference 1st team. In fact, no one on Houston made the All-Conference 1st team, which must be a pretty rare feat for a conference champion lol.

 

[Randolphkeys]

-Killian Tillie has kind of been forgotten about, as he struggled with injuries and never developed into a big-time scorer. Still, he has a really sweet 3-point shot (40% this year, and 44.4% over his 4-year career), and he led Gonzaga in steal+block rate as well. Overall his +12.0 box plus/minus ranked top-5 in the country. He should be able to provide useful stretch-4 minutes right away.

Tillie and Robert Woodard II have been my two favorite sleepers for the second round since March. I do see a lot of overlap with Dean Wade and Tillie, but there is a role for players like them.

 

[Nathan S]

Tillie and Robert Woodard II have been my two favorite sleepers for the second round since March. I do see a lot of overlap with Dean Wade and Tillie, but there is a role for players like them.

Yeah, I can definitely see that. Had the thought to mention Dean Wade when I was writing my post. I wouldn't mind having both of them, since the odds of them both being healthy and playing well enough to earn significant minutes is relatively low. If they do then that's obviously a great problem to have.

 

[Nathan S]

Also, I want to bring up some bigs with stretch potential who could probably be had in the late 2nd or for summer league (in addition to Perry and Garza who I've mentioned previously):

-Killian Tillie has kind of been forgotten about, as he struggled with injuries and never developed into a big-time scorer. Still, he has a really sweet 3-point shot (40% this year, and 44.4% over his 4-year career), and he led Gonzaga in steal+block rate as well. Overall his +12.0 box plus/minus ranked top-5 in the country. He should be able to provide useful stretch-4 minutes right away.

-Marko Simonovic showed newfound shooting ability in the Adriatic league this year, making 19 threes at 31% and draining free throws at 80%. That skill combined with his league-best offensive rebound numbers made him a real inside/outside threat. Defensively he's similar to Tillie in that he doesn't have outstanding strength, length, or vertical athleticism, but makes up for it somewhat with IQ and lateral quickness.

-Nathan Knight is another big who developed an outside shot this season, making 29 threes at 31% and converting 78% from the line. Overall he averaged over 40 points and 20 rebounds per 100, steamrolling his way to conference POY and DPOY honors in a weak AAC. He's a more traditional big than Tillie or Simonovic, with a prototypical frame for a modern center, and he seems reasonably though not exceptionally nimble for his size.

Knight's 40/20 per 100 may be more unusual than I thought. @I'mWithDan when's the last time a player did that?

 

[Alec]

Bol Bol is a nice prospect, but there's a reason he fell. I think people are getting ahead of themselves, he's a C that can't score in the low block

Sorry to necro this post but I really don’t know how important this is if a C can shoot 3s in modern game.

edit: just finished the rest of the thread holy s