To learn more from my ratings, and to identify places where they may be mis-evaluating prospects, I've broken them up into "Perimeter," "Interior," and "Team" components for offense and defense. Here, I've color-coded prospects according to their projections in these areas, from red (far below average) to cyan (far above average).
Tier 1 guys:
-LaMelo's strong rating is largely driven by his excellent assist:TO numbers, which give him great Team O and Team D ratings. While strong assist totals are typically a good indicator for basketball IQ on defense, it's fair to question whether that's true in LaMelo's case. Does he just need a good coach/system to thrive defensively, or does he really not "get it" on that end of the court?
-Haliburton grades out similarly in the Team O and Team D sections, and here I think these ratings accurately represent his excellent awareness and IQ on both ends of the court. However, his weak frame limited his ability to produce inside the arc in college, and this may continue to be a significant weakness at the next level.
-Hayes doesn't have quite the spectacular assist:TO stats of LaMelo or Haliburton, but he does project to be an excellent point-of-attack defender, which would make him a welcome addition to the Cavs backcourt. His relatively low 3-point and free throw rates limit his offensive upside a little.
-Wiseman is an extremely difficult prospect to evaluate due to his extreme strengths and weaknesses. He dominated the paint in his brief college career, and all signs point to him continuing that domination in the NBA. But serious weaknesses in his all-around game threaten to offset this dominance.
Tier 2 guys:
-Edwards benefits from a well-rounded offensive game, but doesn't grade out as elite in any one area. He comes closest in perimeter offense thanks to his very high 3-point volume, but he's a streaky shooter who ended the season under 30% from deep. In spite of a burly frame and periodic highlight plays, he didn't show much ability to dominate the paint on either end, mainly settling for jumpers and putting up middling free throw and rebound numbers.
-Josh Green is perhaps the most well-rounded prospect in the draft, which the potential to do pretty much everything at an above-average level. His lack of a single elite skill keeps him out of my top tier, but he should be considered a serious sleeper to go in the mid-high lottery after a strong finish to the season.
-Okongwu's defensive versatility and potential to dominate the paint make him a very interesting prospect. On the offensive end, though, he suffers from some of the same concern as Wiseman, as his poor assist:TO numbers and nonexistent 3-point shot suggest that some of his skills are significantly behind the curve.
-Hampton is rather similar to Green in a lot of ways. I have him just a bit behind, as there's some evidence that he struggled to have a positive team-level impact, and his frame is a little less impressive on defense.
-Maledon lands a notch below Hayes, Ball, and Haliburton because his assist:TO numbers suggest that he's more of a combo guard as opposed to a big point guard. In spite of this, he's a very good all-around prospect, with similar potential to Hayes as a point-of-attack defender, and a solid outside shot.
-Mannion has very nice point guard skills, but he arguably faces the biggest challenges of all my Tier 1/2 prospects in his adjustment to NBA size and athleticism. This shows up in his poor interior O and interior D ratings, and also in his perimeter D rating, where he's questionable rather than strong.
-Pokusevski has been billed as the draft's big mystery man, and you should probably believe the billing. He's the youngest player in the draft, having turned 18 just days before the January 1 cutoff. Playing center, he put up shooting and assist:TO numbers more typical for a combo guard, which is very impressive even considering his weak strength of schedule. He was already over 7' with a 7'3" wingspan when he was last measured at age 16, and he has likely grown since then.
Tier 3 guys:
-Okoro fell a bit behind Green among do-it-all wings as the year went on. He didn't quite live up to the hype, especially defensively where he was more solid than spectacular.
-Avdija's poor free throw rate sinks his interior O rating. Partly due to an inability to draw fouls, and partly due to an inability to make free throws when he got to the line, it's a serious red flag in an otherwise solid profile. It reflects his passive nature offensively, which is likely to continue into his NBA career unless coaches very intentionally shove him into the spotlight.
-It ain't easy being old. At 22 years old, Obi's older than most juniors and many seniors, and as a result the bar for his performance is very high. Numbers like 1.2 offensive rebounds and 3.2 free throws per game would be solid enough for a teenager, but are below-average for a prospect his age. His athleticism may give him a better chance than most to translate his game to the NBA, but he faces a steeper jump in level of competition and a smaller development window than a typical lottery prospect.
Tier 1 guys:
-LaMelo's strong rating is largely driven by his excellent assist:TO numbers, which give him great Team O and Team D ratings. While strong assist totals are typically a good indicator for basketball IQ on defense, it's fair to question whether that's true in LaMelo's case. Does he just need a good coach/system to thrive defensively, or does he really not "get it" on that end of the court?
-Haliburton grades out similarly in the Team O and Team D sections, and here I think these ratings accurately represent his excellent awareness and IQ on both ends of the court. However, his weak frame limited his ability to produce inside the arc in college, and this may continue to be a significant weakness at the next level.
-Hayes doesn't have quite the spectacular assist:TO stats of LaMelo or Haliburton, but he does project to be an excellent point-of-attack defender, which would make him a welcome addition to the Cavs backcourt. His relatively low 3-point and free throw rates limit his offensive upside a little.
-Wiseman is an extremely difficult prospect to evaluate due to his extreme strengths and weaknesses. He dominated the paint in his brief college career, and all signs point to him continuing that domination in the NBA. But serious weaknesses in his all-around game threaten to offset this dominance.
Tier 2 guys:
-Edwards benefits from a well-rounded offensive game, but doesn't grade out as elite in any one area. He comes closest in perimeter offense thanks to his very high 3-point volume, but he's a streaky shooter who ended the season under 30% from deep. In spite of a burly frame and periodic highlight plays, he didn't show much ability to dominate the paint on either end, mainly settling for jumpers and putting up middling free throw and rebound numbers.
-Josh Green is perhaps the most well-rounded prospect in the draft, which the potential to do pretty much everything at an above-average level. His lack of a single elite skill keeps him out of my top tier, but he should be considered a serious sleeper to go in the mid-high lottery after a strong finish to the season.
-Okongwu's defensive versatility and potential to dominate the paint make him a very interesting prospect. On the offensive end, though, he suffers from some of the same concern as Wiseman, as his poor assist:TO numbers and nonexistent 3-point shot suggest that some of his skills are significantly behind the curve.
-Hampton is rather similar to Green in a lot of ways. I have him just a bit behind, as there's some evidence that he struggled to have a positive team-level impact, and his frame is a little less impressive on defense.
-Maledon lands a notch below Hayes, Ball, and Haliburton because his assist:TO numbers suggest that he's more of a combo guard as opposed to a big point guard. In spite of this, he's a very good all-around prospect, with similar potential to Hayes as a point-of-attack defender, and a solid outside shot.
-Mannion has very nice point guard skills, but he arguably faces the biggest challenges of all my Tier 1/2 prospects in his adjustment to NBA size and athleticism. This shows up in his poor interior O and interior D ratings, and also in his perimeter D rating, where he's questionable rather than strong.
-Pokusevski has been billed as the draft's big mystery man, and you should probably believe the billing. He's the youngest player in the draft, having turned 18 just days before the January 1 cutoff. Playing center, he put up shooting and assist:TO numbers more typical for a combo guard, which is very impressive even considering his weak strength of schedule. He was already over 7' with a 7'3" wingspan when he was last measured at age 16, and he has likely grown since then.
Tier 3 guys:
-Okoro fell a bit behind Green among do-it-all wings as the year went on. He didn't quite live up to the hype, especially defensively where he was more solid than spectacular.
-Avdija's poor free throw rate sinks his interior O rating. Partly due to an inability to draw fouls, and partly due to an inability to make free throws when he got to the line, it's a serious red flag in an otherwise solid profile. It reflects his passive nature offensively, which is likely to continue into his NBA career unless coaches very intentionally shove him into the spotlight.
-It ain't easy being old. At 22 years old, Obi's older than most juniors and many seniors, and as a result the bar for his performance is very high. Numbers like 1.2 offensive rebounds and 3.2 free throws per game would be solid enough for a teenager, but are below-average for a prospect his age. His athleticism may give him a better chance than most to translate his game to the NBA, but he faces a steeper jump in level of competition and a smaller development window than a typical lottery prospect.