2021 Around MLB: Return of the Dead Ball Era

[CalBuckeyeRob]

and?

Look, I get the stress on the body. Throwing the ball without trying to do anything to it at 95-100 mph is putting stress on the body, then add in twisting and turning and whatever else they are doing and it's a recipe for disaster. My point is they broke the rules and now they want to cry that that is causing injuries. For the record I don't have a problem with them using the sticky stuff just like I didn't have a problem with the roids if that's what they choose to do but don't come crying to me when it goes bad.

Not defending them at all. Just discussing the impact of the change. To me, the bigger issue is that management clearly was complicit. Pitching coaches and managers had to know it and didn't care. Like steroids where the teams knew what was going on and just ignored it then acted like they were victims of the cheating too. The sport is in need of a realistic discussion between management and the players about what they want the balance between hitting and pitching to look like and what rules will best achieve that.

 

[TxBuckeye]

"illegal is illegal' is just black and white, and shows a lack of understanding of what is going on, what hitters say they do not care about and actually support(sunscreen/rosin) and what they say is actual cheating(stuff like Spider Tack).

Your own example of the speed limit being 55MPH, and that driving 60MPH and 80MPH are both speeding regardless of the difference in speed is an excellent example. Correct, both are actually speeding. Expect a cop is going to let you pass for doing 5MPH over the limit, the vast majority of the time not even bothering to pull you over. That same cop is going to ticket you for going 25MPH over the limit, possibly even getting you for reckless op. See the difference now? One is trivial, the other is egregious.

100% get it and I knew it when I typed that.

I completely blame the powers that be in baseball for this situation just like the steroid thing. There is not a thing in the world you can say to me that will convince me Selig and everyone else didn't know guys were abusing roids but they let it go. Just like this current situation. This isn't a surprise to anyone. But they have said enough is enough. You want there to be some grey. I'm saying if the powers that be say it's black and white and no illegal substance means no illegal substance then so be it. Just like the cop. If he says 55 is 55 and you don't like getting a ticket for only being 5 mph over the limit that is your problem, not his. The law is the law.

 

[TxBuckeye]

Not defending them at all. Just discussing the impact of the change. To me, the bigger issue is that management clearly was complicit. Pitching coaches and managers had to know it and didn't care. Like steroids where the teams knew what was going on and just ignored it then acted like they were victims of the cheating too. The sport is in need of a realistic discussion between management and the players about what they want the balance between hitting and pitching to look like and what rules will best achieve that.

yep. And my guess would be that will be part of the CBA. I fully expect a repeat of 1994 because we all know the MLB players union and MLB management might as well be Republicans and Democrats trying to agree on anything.

 

[jup]

There is a massive difference between Spider Tack and sunscreen/rosin. If he was truly only using sunscreen as I have read, then it isn't this massive cheating thing you are making it out to be. Not even close.

So this whole thing captured my interest enough that I went to Baseball Savant and got Glasnow's spin rates for this year. Averaged his 4 seam FB per start and above is what you've got.

There is absolutely no significant difference in spin rates over the last two starts, not sure what he is talking about. Now what is significant is his fall/rise to/from around 2500 in early May.

Not sure what to make of his spin rates overall, a lot more variability there than one would normally expect to see. When you study spin rates (and I have done a bunch of it) you come to the conclusion that they bounce around a mean. And they deviate about 50 rpm plus/minus from that mean. By the time you get out to around 100 rpm you are pushing 2 standard deviations. And that is significant statistically. You get to 150 and you are looking at pushing 3. Now that varies from individual to individual but not a whole lot. So since I haven't done any in depth analysis on Tyler, don't want to state anything unequivocally, but I would look at the spikes below with a skeptical eye.

Now I just drew in what looked like a mean that made sense at 2400 (red line). And you can see the bounce around that for most starts seems to be within what would be expected. But then you have those that are circled and it is hard to tell what is going on there. But one thing I can say about spin rates, they don't lie.

My conclusion he changed some things in late Apr to mid May, but not the last two starts.

 

[jup]

Not defending them at all. Just discussing the impact of the change. To me, the bigger issue is that management clearly was complicit. Pitching coaches and managers had to know it and didn't care. Like steroids where the teams knew what was going on and just ignored it then acted like they were victims of the cheating too. The sport is in need of a realistic discussion between management and the players about what they want the balance between hitting and pitching to look like and what rules will best achieve that.

So when you say complicit, of course they were complicit. It has been going on for decades. They all grew up (as in their baseball careers) in it. All the hogwash you are getting now is them trying to CYA.

But when you say

"Pitching coaches and managers had to know it and didn't care"

that is a little off base because they did care. They cared big time. Because they knew it made their PITCHERS BETTER. It has been gut instinct that it made pitchers better for ages, because no one could quantify it until recently when guys like Bauer came along and started working with the data on a lager scale, that had started being recorded from the onset of the Trackman era. And it wasn't just the coaches and manager, every GM knew and has for A LONG TIME. So don't believe their feigned innocence, the system that allowed for it to thrive has been in place and held in place by the management staffs for forever.

 

[Criznit]

So this whole thing captured my interest enough that I went to Baseball Savant and got Glasnow's spin rates for this year. Averaged his 4 seam FB per start and above is what you've got.

There is absolutely no significant difference in spin rates over the last two starts, not sure what he is talking about. Now what is significant is his fall/rise to/from around 2500 in early May.

Not sure what to make of his spin rates overall, a lot more variability there than one would normally expect to see. When you study spin rates (and I have done a bunch of it) you come to the conclusion that they bounce around a mean. And they deviate about 50 rpm plus/minus from that mean. By the time you get out to around 100 rpm you are pushing 2 standard deviations. And that is significant statistically. You get to 150 and you are looking at pushing 3. Now that varies from individual to individual but not a whole lot. So since I haven't done any in depth analysis on Tyler, don't want to state anything unequivocally, but I would look at the spikes below with a skeptical eye.

Now I just drew in what looked like a mean that made sense at 2400 (red line). And you can see the bounce around that for most starts seems to be within what would be expected. But then you have those that are circled and it is hard to tell what is going on there. But one thing I can say about spin rates, they don't lie.

My conclusion he changed some things in late Apr to mid May, but not the last two starts.

Those anomalous starts... I wonder who/where they were playing on those days.. Can you add that if you get a chance? All opponents, home or away if you are feeling froggy. I'd ask for weather conditions as well - but well I guess I just did lol.

 

[jup]

@ NYY 4/17, @Oakland 5/8 and versus the NYM 5/14

That is as far as I am going to take it @Criznit - the rest of the data I trashed after I got what I needed for what I was interested in. But it is simple enough to look up if you are truly that interested.

 

[Lee]

100% get it and I knew it when I typed that.

I completely blame the powers that be in baseball for this situation just like the steroid thing. There is not a thing in the world you can say to me that will convince me Selig and everyone else didn't know guys were abusing roids but they let it go. Just like this current situation. This isn't a surprise to anyone. But they have said enough is enough. You want there to be some grey. I'm saying if the powers that be say it's black and white and no illegal substance means no illegal substance then so be it. Just like the cop. If he says 55 is 55 and you don't like getting a ticket for only being 5 mph over the limit that is your problem, not his. The law is the law.

A former 2 time MLB GM told me to my face 8 years ago 100% everyone in baseball knew they were using steroids and chose to ignore it for years.

PS, the GM started out as a scout for the Indians, his first assignment was to help acclimate a newly signed 18 year old CC Sabathia we grew up without a dime and had no idea how to even buy himself a meal. Great story.

 

[CATS44]

I got busted in HS for running a gambling casino.

It started out as a lunch period euchre game for a nickel a match, and nobody cared. Everybody knew, even the staff, and a picture was put in the annual of a bunch of us playing...even though gambling was explicitly against the rules.

But by my senior year it morphed into a dime-quarter poker game, disguised as a physics lab. Soon, a shop kid made me a simple roulette wheel. The science dept was thrilled that so many kids were requesting passes to a voluntary physics lab. Traffic was way up in that end of the building.

For some unknown reason, a staff member got suspicious. So I moved the venture to the back end of the stage in the gym. Again, traffic increased in and out of the theater dept.

An enterprising and suspicious wrestling/football coach investigated.

All hell broke loose. Police were called. Suspensions passed out. Several members of NHS were removed. The enterprising coach was chagrined to learn that his actions caused him to lose several of his wrestlers for multiple matches and his winning season went down the drain.

The point is that there was tacit approval for ignoring an established rule, as long as it did not get out of hand. I was not suspended for breaking a rule. I was busted for openly flaunting the rule and spreading it throughout the general population.

My argument that the rule was being broken for years with no punishment held no water.

The staff had been complicit for years, and the wrestling coach admitted to us that he would have been, too, if he had known his wrestlers were involved. Even afterwards, some teachers refused to go along with the school punishments involving GPAs for many of the miscreants.

The argument of complicity held no water, either.

The rule that was once ignored became strictly enforced.

The same applies to the pitchers today. They aren't getting hammered for breaking a century old rule that everybody winked at. They are getting hammered, because they openly flaunted the rule, and were stupid about it. Now, the rule will be enforced.

They have only themselves to blame...not the league, nor the individual teams.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I got busted in HS for running a gambling casino.

It started out as a lunch period euchre game for a nickel a match, and nobody cared. Everybody knew, even the staff, and a picture was put in the annual of a bunch of us playing...even though gambling was explicitly against the rules.

But by my senior year it morphed into a dime-quarter poker game, disguised as a physics lab. Soon, a shop kid made me a simple roulette wheel. The science dept was thrilled that so many kids were requesting passes to a voluntary physics lab. Traffic was way up in that end of the building.

For some unknown reason, a staff member got suspicious. So I moved the venture to the back end of the stage in the gym. Again, traffic increased in and out of the theater dept.

An enterprising and suspicious wrestling/football coach investigated.

All hell broke loose. Police were called. Suspensions passed out. Several members of NHS were removed. The enterprising coach was chagrined to learn that his actions caused him to lose several of his wrestlers for multiple matches and his winning season went down the drain.

The point is that there was tacit approval for ignoring an established rule, as long as it did not get out of hand. I was not suspended for breaking a rule. I was busted for openly flaunting the rule and spreading it throughout the general population.

My argument that the rule was being broken for years with no punishment held no water.

The staff had been complicit for years, and the wrestling coach admitted to us that he would have been, too, if he had known his wrestlers were involved. Even afterwards, some teachers refused to go along with the school punishments involving GPAs for many of the miscreants.

The argument of complicity held no water, either.

The rule that was once ignored became strictly enforced.

The same applies to the pitchers today. They aren't getting hammered for breaking a century old rule that everybody winked at. They are getting hammered, because they openly flaunted the rule, and were stupid about it. Now, the rule will be enforced.

They have only themselves to blame...not the league, nor the individual teams.

I agree with all of this, but that doesn't mean Manfred's reaction is above criticism.

If the teachers decided that the appropriate response to your actions was the death penalty, nobody's going to say "Yeah, the kid gambling only had himself to blame."

The reason this is being addressed now is because the pitchers fucked up--but I think legalizing a specific form of sticky would be the better response for everyone.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

So when you say complicit, of course they were complicit. It has been going on for decades. They all grew up (as in their baseball careers) in it. All the hogwash you are getting now is them trying to CYA.

But when you say

"Pitching coaches and managers had to know it and didn't care"

that is a little off base because they did care. They cared big time. Because they knew it made their PITCHERS BETTER. It has been gut instinct that it made pitchers better for ages, because no one could quantify it until recently when guys like Bauer came along and started working with the data on a lager scale, that had started being recorded from the onset of the Trackman era. And it wasn't just the coaches and manager, every GM knew and has for A LONG TIME. So don't believe their feigned innocence, the system that allowed for it to thrive has been in place and held in place by the management staffs for forever.

Could we find that the Indians recent track record of success in developing young pitchers was fueled in significant part by an advanced skill in using various foreign substances on baseballs courtesy of the expertise of Trevor Bauer?

 

[BimboColesHair]

Could we find that the Indians recent track record of success in developing young pitchers was fueled in significant part by an advanced skill in using various foreign substances on baseballs courtesy of the expertise of Trevor Bauer?

No. Just, no.

 

[TxBuckeye]

A former 2 time MLB GM told me to my face 8 years ago 100% everyone in baseball knew they were using steroids and chose to ignore it for years.

PS, the GM started out as a scout for the Indians, his first assignment was to help acclimate a newly signed 18 year old CC Sabathia we grew up without a dime and had no idea how to even buy himself a meal. Great story.

Sure they did. The sport was a mess after the strike. They needed to win the fans back. How else to do it than come watch a bunch of muscle heads hit a ton of HR's.

 

[TxBuckeye]

I got busted in HS for running a gambling casino.

It started out as a lunch period euchre game for a nickel a match, and nobody cared. Everybody knew, even the staff, and a picture was put in the annual of a bunch of us playing...even though gambling was explicitly against the rules.

But by my senior year it morphed into a dime-quarter poker game, disguised as a physics lab. Soon, a shop kid made me a simple roulette wheel. The science dept was thrilled that so many kids were requesting passes to a voluntary physics lab. Traffic was way up in that end of the building.

For some unknown reason, a staff member got suspicious. So I moved the venture to the back end of the stage in the gym. Again, traffic increased in and out of the theater dept.

An enterprising and suspicious wrestling/football coach investigated.

All hell broke loose. Police were called. Suspensions passed out. Several members of NHS were removed. The enterprising coach was chagrined to learn that his actions caused him to lose several of his wrestlers for multiple matches and his winning season went down the drain.

The point is that there was tacit approval for ignoring an established rule, as long as it did not get out of hand. I was not suspended for breaking a rule. I was busted for openly flaunting the rule and spreading it throughout the general population.

My argument that the rule was being broken for years with no punishment held no water.

The staff had been complicit for years, and the wrestling coach admitted to us that he would have been, too, if he had known his wrestlers were involved. Even afterwards, some teachers refused to go along with the school punishments involving GPAs for many of the miscreants.

The argument of complicity held no water, either.

The rule that was once ignored became strictly enforced.

The same applies to the pitchers today. They aren't getting hammered for breaking a century old rule that everybody winked at. They are getting hammered, because they openly flaunted the rule, and were stupid about it. Now, the rule will be enforced.

They have only themselves to blame...not the league, nor the individual teams.

Very good assessment.

 

[sportscoach]

Could we find that the Indians recent track record of success in developing young pitchers was fueled in significant part by an advanced skill in using various foreign substances on baseballs courtesy of the expertise of Trevor Bauer?

Bauer wasn't ever a heavy user of sticky from what I can tell. Bauer's influence was the lastest analytics and development of pitching not sticky...

Also do we need to cut down the sticky? Yes we do..., But was now a good time? heck no... Any changes need to be made before/after the season. If they had to implement rules they needed to allow rosin, sunscreen etc to be allowed since rosin bags have been apart of baseball as long as I can remember and most people wear some type of sunscreen on sunny days especially if you are a Caucasian guy in the south... It actually could be bad if some people don't have it on...

I didnt like Selig, but he wasn't out of touch with the game like Manfred is... He did turn a blind eye to the steroids but it didn't hurt the game as much as Manfred has in my mind since he's just so out of touch with the game...