col63onel
Brad Daugherty Fan Club
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Games of great import
Ranked vs Ranked
#6 TSUN @ #8 Sparty, B1G NOON SATURDAY, Fox: This game should be fascinating. The teams are undefeated, but Michigan has just 2 wins against teams over .500 (Wisky at 4-3 and Northern Illinois), and that's 2 more than Sparty. Both barely beat Nebraska, MSU beat Rutgers by more than UM, but UM beat NW by more.
Seems like a very traditional Harbaugh team. Good defense, good running game, good enough throwing the ball. We've seen that type of team beat up on bad-average-decent teams, then struggle against upper tier teams. MSU is similar, and is lead by Wake Forest transfer and Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker *which is a really weird sentence to write).
While both teams have been a benefactor of weak schedules, I think MSU fits that category moreso. And given where MSU was during the end of the Dantonio era, UM probably has a better roster. Even in East Lansing, this seems like a game UM can grind away for a win. Might be close for most the game and UM pulls comfortably ahead late.
#10 Ole Miss @ #18 Auburn, 3:30, CBS: Besides Alabama, the only other SEC West team who controls their own destiny is Auburn. At 2 losses, Auburn probably still makes the CFP if they win out. Ole Miss needs another Bama loss to make the SEC Title game. Auburn, in typical fashion, has had a weird year. Only beat LSU by 5 and Georgia State by 10, but beat Arkansas by 15 2 weeks ago. Ole Miss has a good shot to win out if they can get past this game, but still need Bama to lose again.
Other Games
#2 Cincinnati @ Tulane, noon, ESPN2: Cincy's resume took a but of hit, beating 1 win Navy by 7, and seeing Indiana get depants by OSU. ND keeps winning, which is essential, but won't matter if Cincy struggles with bad AAU teams. Tulane opened the year with a 5 point loss to Oklahoma, in which theeir final drive came up just short of a first down in OU territory. They followed that up with a blowout of an FCS school.....and then a 5 game losing streak by an average of 23 points. They did play Ole Miss, SMU and Houston in that stretch (who have combined for 2 losses), but still, not good. If Cincy struggles again, it'll really start to to wear on their resume.
#9 Iowa @ Wisconsin, noon, ESPN: Another game of B1G teams where the wrong team is probably going to win. How does Wisconsin shit the bed early in the year, then wreck the rest of the B1G West? Wisconsin is favored. I question how much they will be able to move the ball on an Iowa team coming off a bye. This game will go a long way in deciding the B1G West. Both teams just have 1 team currently above .500 on the rest of the schedule (Minnesota for both). Wisconsin is essentially eliminated with a loss, and Iowa would need a lot of help if they lose. Knowing the B1G West, I am sure whichever results hurts OSU more will occur because fuck the B1G West.
Texas @ #16 Baylor, noon, ABC: Both teams very much alive in the B12. Baylor still plays Oklahoma, but might be able to absorb a loss there if they can win this one. Texas in a run of 4 straight ranked opponents, and is so far 0-2, but blew late leads in both. Baylor is coming off a bye, and would be in great position with a win.
Texas Tech @ #4 Oklahoma, 3:30, ABC: Oklahoma needed 2 wild 4th down conversions to beat Kansas (credit to Caleb Williams, who did make 2 insane plays an crucial times). At football. They've beaten Tulane, Nebraska, KSU, WVU, Texas and Kansas by an average of 7, with 12 being the biggest spread. They scream "fraudulent", yet will certainly make the CFP if they remain unbeaten. They do still have Baylor, Okie St and the B12 title game, so it seems reasonable to think they eventually lose one of these game....maybe even this one.
TTech has had an interesting year. They beat a good Houston team by 17. They almost blew a 17 point lead vs WVU and did blow a 14 point lead vs KState. They gave up 52 to TCU and 70 to Texas. But they did blow out Kansas, which is more than OU can say.
#1 Georgia vs Florida, 3:30, CBS: It's a rivalry game and Florida always has talent. That said, Florida's season has kinda derailed since almost beating Bama. Feels like Dan Mullen is very much on the hot seat (although I don't know if they want to hire a coach competing against LSU and USC, at minimum). This is probably Georgia's toughest game left before the SEC championship game, so I don't foresee a let down.
#19 SMU @ Houston, 7:00, ESPN2: Major implications in the AAU. SMU is undefeated and beat TCU. Houston has won 6 in a row after losing to TTech in the opener. The AAU is like the Big 12, with no divisions, and the 2 best conference records make the title game. SMU travels to Cincy in a month, but Houston doesn't play Cincy. A Houston win means they'd only have to beat 2 of S Florida, Temple and Memphis to make the title game. SMU winning likely locks Houston out of the title game. Going by YPG, SMU is 13th in country in offense and 150th in defense, while Houston is 121st on O, but 17th on D. Should be a fun one.
#20 Penn State vs #5 OSU, 7:30, ABC: In another timeline, Sean Clifford isn't injured, and this is #2 PSU after they beat Iowa and Illinois. Instead, PSU's backup was awful vs Iowa, and one legged Sean Clifford lead PSU to 18 points in 4 quarters plus 9 overtimes vs.....Illinois. PSU has scored 30+ twice this year, vs Ball State and Villanova. If Coombs/Schiano were still DC, I'd be worried we'd play man the whole game and let Jahan Dotson torch us. However, with the defense somewhat fixed, I can't imagine OSU trying that now. PSU has a solid secondary and a not terrible pass rush, but without a functional QB, I don't see how they can keep up with OSU.
Ranked vs Ranked
#6 TSUN @ #8 Sparty, B1G NOON SATURDAY, Fox: This game should be fascinating. The teams are undefeated, but Michigan has just 2 wins against teams over .500 (Wisky at 4-3 and Northern Illinois), and that's 2 more than Sparty. Both barely beat Nebraska, MSU beat Rutgers by more than UM, but UM beat NW by more.
Seems like a very traditional Harbaugh team. Good defense, good running game, good enough throwing the ball. We've seen that type of team beat up on bad-average-decent teams, then struggle against upper tier teams. MSU is similar, and is lead by Wake Forest transfer and Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker *which is a really weird sentence to write).
While both teams have been a benefactor of weak schedules, I think MSU fits that category moreso. And given where MSU was during the end of the Dantonio era, UM probably has a better roster. Even in East Lansing, this seems like a game UM can grind away for a win. Might be close for most the game and UM pulls comfortably ahead late.
#10 Ole Miss @ #18 Auburn, 3:30, CBS: Besides Alabama, the only other SEC West team who controls their own destiny is Auburn. At 2 losses, Auburn probably still makes the CFP if they win out. Ole Miss needs another Bama loss to make the SEC Title game. Auburn, in typical fashion, has had a weird year. Only beat LSU by 5 and Georgia State by 10, but beat Arkansas by 15 2 weeks ago. Ole Miss has a good shot to win out if they can get past this game, but still need Bama to lose again.
Other Games
#2 Cincinnati @ Tulane, noon, ESPN2: Cincy's resume took a but of hit, beating 1 win Navy by 7, and seeing Indiana get depants by OSU. ND keeps winning, which is essential, but won't matter if Cincy struggles with bad AAU teams. Tulane opened the year with a 5 point loss to Oklahoma, in which theeir final drive came up just short of a first down in OU territory. They followed that up with a blowout of an FCS school.....and then a 5 game losing streak by an average of 23 points. They did play Ole Miss, SMU and Houston in that stretch (who have combined for 2 losses), but still, not good. If Cincy struggles again, it'll really start to to wear on their resume.
#9 Iowa @ Wisconsin, noon, ESPN: Another game of B1G teams where the wrong team is probably going to win. How does Wisconsin shit the bed early in the year, then wreck the rest of the B1G West? Wisconsin is favored. I question how much they will be able to move the ball on an Iowa team coming off a bye. This game will go a long way in deciding the B1G West. Both teams just have 1 team currently above .500 on the rest of the schedule (Minnesota for both). Wisconsin is essentially eliminated with a loss, and Iowa would need a lot of help if they lose. Knowing the B1G West, I am sure whichever results hurts OSU more will occur because fuck the B1G West.
Texas @ #16 Baylor, noon, ABC: Both teams very much alive in the B12. Baylor still plays Oklahoma, but might be able to absorb a loss there if they can win this one. Texas in a run of 4 straight ranked opponents, and is so far 0-2, but blew late leads in both. Baylor is coming off a bye, and would be in great position with a win.
Texas Tech @ #4 Oklahoma, 3:30, ABC: Oklahoma needed 2 wild 4th down conversions to beat Kansas (credit to Caleb Williams, who did make 2 insane plays an crucial times). At football. They've beaten Tulane, Nebraska, KSU, WVU, Texas and Kansas by an average of 7, with 12 being the biggest spread. They scream "fraudulent", yet will certainly make the CFP if they remain unbeaten. They do still have Baylor, Okie St and the B12 title game, so it seems reasonable to think they eventually lose one of these game....maybe even this one.
TTech has had an interesting year. They beat a good Houston team by 17. They almost blew a 17 point lead vs WVU and did blow a 14 point lead vs KState. They gave up 52 to TCU and 70 to Texas. But they did blow out Kansas, which is more than OU can say.
#1 Georgia vs Florida, 3:30, CBS: It's a rivalry game and Florida always has talent. That said, Florida's season has kinda derailed since almost beating Bama. Feels like Dan Mullen is very much on the hot seat (although I don't know if they want to hire a coach competing against LSU and USC, at minimum). This is probably Georgia's toughest game left before the SEC championship game, so I don't foresee a let down.
#19 SMU @ Houston, 7:00, ESPN2: Major implications in the AAU. SMU is undefeated and beat TCU. Houston has won 6 in a row after losing to TTech in the opener. The AAU is like the Big 12, with no divisions, and the 2 best conference records make the title game. SMU travels to Cincy in a month, but Houston doesn't play Cincy. A Houston win means they'd only have to beat 2 of S Florida, Temple and Memphis to make the title game. SMU winning likely locks Houston out of the title game. Going by YPG, SMU is 13th in country in offense and 150th in defense, while Houston is 121st on O, but 17th on D. Should be a fun one.
#20 Penn State vs #5 OSU, 7:30, ABC: In another timeline, Sean Clifford isn't injured, and this is #2 PSU after they beat Iowa and Illinois. Instead, PSU's backup was awful vs Iowa, and one legged Sean Clifford lead PSU to 18 points in 4 quarters plus 9 overtimes vs.....Illinois. PSU has scored 30+ twice this year, vs Ball State and Villanova. If Coombs/Schiano were still DC, I'd be worried we'd play man the whole game and let Jahan Dotson torch us. However, with the defense somewhat fixed, I can't imagine OSU trying that now. PSU has a solid secondary and a not terrible pass rush, but without a functional QB, I don't see how they can keep up with OSU.
