col63onel
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2021 College Football Season/Playoff Thread
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col63onel
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Games of great import.
Rather than go chronologically, I am gonna go by conference, because I think it makes more sense to talk about conference races/scenarios at this point in the season.
American
Cincy @ ECU, Fri, 3:30, ABC: It's been a great 2 weeks for Cincy. Oklahoma and Oregon losing cleared their path to the CFP. What's more, they thumped a pretty good SMU team last week, 48-14, and the game wasn't as close as the score suggests. The CUSA title game is now set between Cincy and Houston, who finally snuck into the CFP rankings. ECU is in 3rd in the AAC and certainly not a pushover. ECU has won 7 of 9, and the 2 losses are by 4 @ UCF in in OT @ Houston. Cincy doesn't need to worry about style points anymore, so even a 1 pt victory is good enough.
Houston is done with AAC play. In a scheduling decision that would make the SEC jealous, they play 1-10 Uconn, whose only win is a 21-15 victory over Yale. Uconn did only lose by a combined 4 to Vandy and Wyoming, but also lost to Holy Cross by 10. Houston essentially has a scrimmage while Cincy plays the #3 team in the conference before they meet for the title game. Tough slate for Cincy. But at least they know they just have win out.
ACC
UNC @ NC State, Fri, 7, ESPN
Wake Forest @ BC, Sat, NOON, ESPN 2
Clemson soundly beat Wake last week, potnetially opening the Atlantic Division to some chaos. Wake sits at 6-1, while NC State is at 5-2 and Clemson is in the clubhouse at 6-2 (they have their traditional rivalry game vs South Carolina this week). The scenarios go thusly:
- If Wake wins, they win the Atlantic outright.
- If Wake loses, then it depends on what NC State did the night before.
- If NC State wins, they win a 3-way tiebreaker with Wake and Clemson.
- If NC State loses, then Clemson wins a tiebreaker with Wake.
So Wake is win and in, lose and out. NC State is win and in if Wake loses. And Clemson is only in if both lose (so they could be eliminated Friday night if NC State wins).
Pitt has already clinched the Coastal. They travel to Syracuse to conclude their regular season.
B1G
Iowa @ Nebraska, 1:30, Fri, BTN
The Game, B1G NOON STAURDAY
Wisconsin @ Minnesota, 4, FOX
The Big Ten is actually one of the least settled conference right now, as at least 2 teams are still alive in both divisions, although the scenarios are pretty simple. In the East, whoever wins The Game wins the East and would just have to win the B1G Title game to make the CFP, and likely as the eventual #2 seed.
The West is more complicated. Both Wisconsin and Iowa come in at 6-2 in conference. Wisconsin won earlier in the year to hold the tiebreaker. So they are win and in. If they lose, and Iowa beats Nebraska, Iowa is in.
Then there is chaos scenario. If both Wisconsin and Iowa lose, they will be tied with Minnesota at 6-3. Purdue can join that tie at 6-3 if they beat Indiana. A three way tie between Wisconsin-Iowa-Minnesota would result in Wisconsin winning the West based on a better division record. A four way tie between Wisconsin-Iowa-Minnesota-Purdue is won by Minnesota. Iowa and Purdue get eliminated via going 1-2 vs the other tied teams while Wisconsin and Minnesota were 2-1. Then Minnesota gets the nod over Wisconsin by winning head to head.
So, to sum up the West
- Wisconsin gets in with a win, or losing but having Iowa and Purdue lose.
- Iowa gets in with a win and a Wisconsin loss.
- Minnesota gets in with a win, an Iowa loss and a Purdue win
- Purdue can tie for the division lead, but can't win any tiebreakers.
I assume that either Wisconsin or Iowa wins, making my research here moot.
2 other B1G notes:
1.) 5-6 Maryland is at 5-6 Rutgers, so one of these these teams will be bowl eligible. Had Rutgers not lost to NW, we could've had the Delaney special, with Maryland and Rutgers both at 6-6.
2.) If Nebraska loses to Iowa, but does so by less than a TD, they will pull off maybe the most amazing feat in B1G history. Nebraska beat NW 56-7 for their only conference win. Their B1G losses have all been between 3 and 9 points for a total 42 points. So if they lose by 6 or less, they will go 1-8 in B1G games, but still have a net positive point differential. They were also +63 in the non conference, so 2021 Nebraska will go down as one of the unluckiest teams in Pythagorean winning % history.
Big 12
Texas Tech @ Baylor, NOON, FS1
Bedlam, 7:30, ABC
Big 12 is very interesting, with 3 teams vying for 2 spots, and 2 of them still having some CFP hopes, however the scenarios are simple. The winner of Bedlam is in the Big 12 title game, and will have a shot at being a 12-1 champ. If Oklahoma wins, there's an automatic Bedlam rematch the following week. If Oklahoma State wins, Baylor will face Oklahoma State if they can beat Texas Tech earlier in the day. If Baylor loses, then it's a Bedlam rematch regardless.
MACTION!
Miami @ Kent St, NOON, ESPN+
Both teams sit at 5-2 in the MAC East. The winner will play Northern Illinois in the MAC title next week. NIU has already clinched and plays Western Michigan on Tuesday. Shoutout to former Midview Middie QB Dustin Crum, who has over 3000 yards and 23 TDs passing and rushing this year for the Flashes. If history repeats itself, he will star on special teams for the Browns for years to come.
Pac12
Apple Cup (Washington St @ Washington) Fri, 8, FS1
Civil War (Oregon St @ Oregon) Sat, 3:30 ESPN
Oregon's loss to Utah shook up the Pac 12 North. Oregon sits at 6-2, while Oregon State and Wazzu sit at 5-3. Oregon still wins the North outright with a win. However, if they lose they are out as they'd lose all tiebreakers. If Wazzu loses the night before, and Oregon State wins, the Beavers win the North at 6-3 via head to head over Oregon. If Wazzu wins, then it's a 3 way tie. The teams all would be 1-1 vs each other, but Wazzu has the better division record, so they'd win the North.
- Oregon is win and in.
- Oregon State is in with a win and Wazzu loss
- Wazzu is in with a win and an Oregon State loss.
So if Wazzu wins on Friday, Oregon State is eliminated. Utah has already clinched the South and awaits whoever emerges.
SEC
Georgia @ Georgia Tech, noon, ABC
Iron Bowl, 3:30, CBS
SEC title game is already set, so no intrigue their. Either of these teams losing obviously would throw a wrench into the CFP, but Georgia Tech is 3-8 coming off a 55 point loss and Auburn has lost 3 in a row and their starting QB. If Bama were to struggle with Auburn, that might affect their CFP chances should they lose to Georgia next week.
Rather than go chronologically, I am gonna go by conference, because I think it makes more sense to talk about conference races/scenarios at this point in the season.
American
Cincy @ ECU, Fri, 3:30, ABC: It's been a great 2 weeks for Cincy. Oklahoma and Oregon losing cleared their path to the CFP. What's more, they thumped a pretty good SMU team last week, 48-14, and the game wasn't as close as the score suggests. The CUSA title game is now set between Cincy and Houston, who finally snuck into the CFP rankings. ECU is in 3rd in the AAC and certainly not a pushover. ECU has won 7 of 9, and the 2 losses are by 4 @ UCF in in OT @ Houston. Cincy doesn't need to worry about style points anymore, so even a 1 pt victory is good enough.
Houston is done with AAC play. In a scheduling decision that would make the SEC jealous, they play 1-10 Uconn, whose only win is a 21-15 victory over Yale. Uconn did only lose by a combined 4 to Vandy and Wyoming, but also lost to Holy Cross by 10. Houston essentially has a scrimmage while Cincy plays the #3 team in the conference before they meet for the title game. Tough slate for Cincy. But at least they know they just have win out.
ACC
UNC @ NC State, Fri, 7, ESPN
Wake Forest @ BC, Sat, NOON, ESPN 2
Clemson soundly beat Wake last week, potnetially opening the Atlantic Division to some chaos. Wake sits at 6-1, while NC State is at 5-2 and Clemson is in the clubhouse at 6-2 (they have their traditional rivalry game vs South Carolina this week). The scenarios go thusly:
- If Wake wins, they win the Atlantic outright.
- If Wake loses, then it depends on what NC State did the night before.
- If NC State wins, they win a 3-way tiebreaker with Wake and Clemson.
- If NC State loses, then Clemson wins a tiebreaker with Wake.
So Wake is win and in, lose and out. NC State is win and in if Wake loses. And Clemson is only in if both lose (so they could be eliminated Friday night if NC State wins).
Pitt has already clinched the Coastal. They travel to Syracuse to conclude their regular season.
B1G
Iowa @ Nebraska, 1:30, Fri, BTN
The Game, B1G NOON STAURDAY
Wisconsin @ Minnesota, 4, FOX
The Big Ten is actually one of the least settled conference right now, as at least 2 teams are still alive in both divisions, although the scenarios are pretty simple. In the East, whoever wins The Game wins the East and would just have to win the B1G Title game to make the CFP, and likely as the eventual #2 seed.
The West is more complicated. Both Wisconsin and Iowa come in at 6-2 in conference. Wisconsin won earlier in the year to hold the tiebreaker. So they are win and in. If they lose, and Iowa beats Nebraska, Iowa is in.
Then there is chaos scenario. If both Wisconsin and Iowa lose, they will be tied with Minnesota at 6-3. Purdue can join that tie at 6-3 if they beat Indiana. A three way tie between Wisconsin-Iowa-Minnesota would result in Wisconsin winning the West based on a better division record. A four way tie between Wisconsin-Iowa-Minnesota-Purdue is won by Minnesota. Iowa and Purdue get eliminated via going 1-2 vs the other tied teams while Wisconsin and Minnesota were 2-1. Then Minnesota gets the nod over Wisconsin by winning head to head.
So, to sum up the West
- Wisconsin gets in with a win, or losing but having Iowa and Purdue lose.
- Iowa gets in with a win and a Wisconsin loss.
- Minnesota gets in with a win, an Iowa loss and a Purdue win
- Purdue can tie for the division lead, but can't win any tiebreakers.
I assume that either Wisconsin or Iowa wins, making my research here moot.
2 other B1G notes:
1.) 5-6 Maryland is at 5-6 Rutgers, so one of these these teams will be bowl eligible. Had Rutgers not lost to NW, we could've had the Delaney special, with Maryland and Rutgers both at 6-6.
2.) If Nebraska loses to Iowa, but does so by less than a TD, they will pull off maybe the most amazing feat in B1G history. Nebraska beat NW 56-7 for their only conference win. Their B1G losses have all been between 3 and 9 points for a total 42 points. So if they lose by 6 or less, they will go 1-8 in B1G games, but still have a net positive point differential. They were also +63 in the non conference, so 2021 Nebraska will go down as one of the unluckiest teams in Pythagorean winning % history.
Big 12
Texas Tech @ Baylor, NOON, FS1
Bedlam, 7:30, ABC
Big 12 is very interesting, with 3 teams vying for 2 spots, and 2 of them still having some CFP hopes, however the scenarios are simple. The winner of Bedlam is in the Big 12 title game, and will have a shot at being a 12-1 champ. If Oklahoma wins, there's an automatic Bedlam rematch the following week. If Oklahoma State wins, Baylor will face Oklahoma State if they can beat Texas Tech earlier in the day. If Baylor loses, then it's a Bedlam rematch regardless.
MACTION!
Miami @ Kent St, NOON, ESPN+
Both teams sit at 5-2 in the MAC East. The winner will play Northern Illinois in the MAC title next week. NIU has already clinched and plays Western Michigan on Tuesday. Shoutout to former Midview Middie QB Dustin Crum, who has over 3000 yards and 23 TDs passing and rushing this year for the Flashes. If history repeats itself, he will star on special teams for the Browns for years to come.
Pac12
Apple Cup (Washington St @ Washington) Fri, 8, FS1
Civil War (Oregon St @ Oregon) Sat, 3:30 ESPN
Oregon's loss to Utah shook up the Pac 12 North. Oregon sits at 6-2, while Oregon State and Wazzu sit at 5-3. Oregon still wins the North outright with a win. However, if they lose they are out as they'd lose all tiebreakers. If Wazzu loses the night before, and Oregon State wins, the Beavers win the North at 6-3 via head to head over Oregon. If Wazzu wins, then it's a 3 way tie. The teams all would be 1-1 vs each other, but Wazzu has the better division record, so they'd win the North.
- Oregon is win and in.
- Oregon State is in with a win and Wazzu loss
- Wazzu is in with a win and an Oregon State loss.
So if Wazzu wins on Friday, Oregon State is eliminated. Utah has already clinched the South and awaits whoever emerges.
SEC
Georgia @ Georgia Tech, noon, ABC
Iron Bowl, 3:30, CBS
SEC title game is already set, so no intrigue their. Either of these teams losing obviously would throw a wrench into the CFP, but Georgia Tech is 3-8 coming off a 55 point loss and Auburn has lost 3 in a row and their starting QB. If Bama were to struggle with Auburn, that might affect their CFP chances should they lose to Georgia next week.
Last edited:
Wulfgar1224
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I know it wasn’t directed to me. But, I think in that situation it would be interesting. I don’t think Bama losing to Georgia would be held against them as long as it isn’t a blowout. So you would have Bama losing to the Aggies and the Irish losing to Cincinnati. As for the best wins, you would have Bama over Ole Miss and the Irish over probably Wisconsin.
I would probably favor Bama.
IMO
The committee used the excuse that Cinci hadn't crushed anybody. That excuse is no longer valid. Cinci did exactly what it was told to do. An undefeated Bearcats squad won't be caught from behind, except by Xichigan, if they beat the Bucks.
Win out and play on NYE.
*************
Georgia is in, unless it loses two...meaning Georgia plays on NYE.
Ohio State- Xichigan winner is in with a Conference title the next week.
*************
Thats three spots.
**************
Win out and Alabama is in. Lose and they need help.
Notre Dame needs help. Their resume is finished.
They need several teams to lose. A one loss Big 12 team will pass them via Conference Title. Everything being equal, Conference Titles are the stated tie breaker. (Notre Dame knew this when it refused to play a full Conference schedule, so they have no legit gripe.)
Assuming that favored teams win out, Georgia, OSU, and Cinci are in.
If there is a one loss B12 champ, it will be the fourth team. If not, the fourth spot will be between ND and Bama.
A tough call. Two favorite sons, but will the Committee want back to back Georgia-Bama games?
The committee used the excuse that Cinci hadn't crushed anybody. That excuse is no longer valid. Cinci did exactly what it was told to do. An undefeated Bearcats squad won't be caught from behind, except by Xichigan, if they beat the Bucks.
Win out and play on NYE.
*************
Georgia is in, unless it loses two...meaning Georgia plays on NYE.
Ohio State- Xichigan winner is in with a Conference title the next week.
*************
Thats three spots.
**************
Win out and Alabama is in. Lose and they need help.
Notre Dame needs help. Their resume is finished.
They need several teams to lose. A one loss Big 12 team will pass them via Conference Title. Everything being equal, Conference Titles are the stated tie breaker. (Notre Dame knew this when it refused to play a full Conference schedule, so they have no legit gripe.)
Assuming that favored teams win out, Georgia, OSU, and Cinci are in.
If there is a one loss B12 champ, it will be the fourth team. If not, the fourth spot will be between ND and Bama.
A tough call. Two favorite sons, but will the Committee want back to back Georgia-Bama games?
Ethan
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Any team that realistically wants to make the playoffs should not be losing their final game of the year.
Alabama would have no one to blame but themselves.
Georgia wouldn't even stay in without currently being undefeated and unanimous #1.
Alabama would have no one to blame but themselves.
Georgia wouldn't even stay in without currently being undefeated and unanimous #1.
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A conference championship game should be viewed as the first round of the playoffs, and you're out regardless of your record to that point.
Teams that don't have a conference championship game should never make the playoffs ahead of a conference champion with the same number of losses.
bob2the2nd
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there are some exceptions i would make to the first rule. Like for example a team that lost their first game of the year in a conference championship should get in before a 2 loss team. However i agree if all things are considered equal a team that loses in their conference championship game should have no business being in the playoff
col63onel
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Problem with the current setup is that it's subjective criteria and the goal is to find "the four best teams."
At some point you will find a non-conference champ who is probably better than a conference champ with the same record, and thus should be included.
Until we get an expanded playoff with auto-bids, it will be a problem.
At some point you will find a non-conference champ who is probably better than a conference champ with the same record, and thus should be included.
Until we get an expanded playoff with auto-bids, it will be a problem.
-Akronite-
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This is the issue with college football historically. National champion was determined by a poll, and then a game played based on a poll aggregate, and now it’s a playoff dependent on a committee (which isn’t that different from a poll).
While I get the debates about “the best four teams,” this is why I favor objective measures like conference titles, as others have stated. I also prioritize it because it keeps the regional aspect of the game alive, which is currently being killed by super-programs dominating recruiting as they monopolize the invitational.
ticon12389
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OSU pretty much guaranteed a top 2 seed if they win out, let’s get it.
2 vs 5 Saturday
2 vs 5 Saturday
-Akronite-
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We know the SEC champ will be the 1 seed, but what matters more to me than getting the 2 seed is that it’s no longer plausible to keep Bama in if they lose. Possible? Sure. But I don’t see the committee dropping them a single rank just to have them play Georgia again.
Michigan is better than Auburn by good measure, so there’s nothing Bama can do to pass us up this week unless we lose (which is would fuck us regardless).
Michigan is better than Auburn by good measure, so there’s nothing Bama can do to pass us up this week unless we lose (which is would fuck us regardless).
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Yeah If OSU won out, and Bama beats Georga who gets the 1seed?
caf
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Thats a good question. Id have to guess Bama assuming Georgia would slide into 2/3.
Id imagine they wouldnt want a first round rematch.
Ohio
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Bama.